Please share only educated views backed by logic. You can share the overall mood within your constituencies and cities in Pakistan.

Admin

Admin

This is really nice discssion. But i think you are underestimating PPP strength.

I used to live in costiteuncy known previously as NA 97 i think this now NA 126.

I Believe real cotest wil be between PPP and PML N as liaqut baloch is out. Ithink NS FACTOR WILL DECIDE this particular seat.

AOA

Thats Great work,Thanks

Most intresting contest to me, where Javaid hashmi is gona face Shiekoo

just a question to you admin: how many people carried out this survey and how long did it take?

- Qaaf League - 115 Seats
- Benazir Party - 90 Seats
- Molvee Party - 45 Seats
- Nawaz League - 40 Seats
- Altaf Movement - 20 Seats
- ANP - 12 Seats

http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/index.aspx?Issue=NP_LHE&Page=National_PAGE&Date=20071212&Pageno=3&View=1 id=

So Musharraf is the winner as per admin predictions.

Total seats = 261 and 2/3 of 261 = 174 seats the magic number for Mush to get all legitimacy.

Benazir 64 Q 64 Fazlu 15 MQM 19 Pagra 6 Sherpao 2 Ind 17 = 187

13 more seats then required.

BB next prime minister Mush president and Iftikhar Chaudhry (history).

End of the story.

NS…..do you have anything to say now? Please don’t tell me that BB will go with you.

My educated guess which I posted in another thread earlier today:

NA (272 seats)
1) PPP = 90-95
2) PMLN = 65-70
3) PMLQ = 55-60
4) MQM = 12-14
5) JUIF = 20-25 (including fata)
6) ANP = 4-6

Rest will go to smaller parties plus independents backed by different parties

punjab (297 seats)
1) PMLN=100-110
2) PPP=70-80
3) PMLQ=70-80

sindh (130 seats)
1) PPP=70-75
2) MQM=25-30
3) PMLQ&F=10-15
4) PMLN=1-2

nwfp (99)
1) PMLN=20-25
2) JUI=20-25
3) PPP=5-10
4) PMLQ&PPP(SP)=10-15
5) ANP=8-12

baluchistan (its anybody’s guess)

moderation again??? do we have a right to say what we think? or you want us to say what you wanna hear?

My MBA from the UK tells me that we do not need to guess. There are very reliable ways that can be adopted to find out what the results will be (read any research skills book). A questionnaire from 600 - 800 people can give us an accurate picture about the party position across the country. I know most of the Pakistanis may think it unreliable but these methods are scientifically proven.

There is a catch. That survey will not reveal any rigging by King party. But then we can use those survey results to launch a movement against rigging.

I thought we are with the people who are not participating the elections, what is the point of even discussing this elections?

Stallin once said about the elections that

To determine the result of elections dont see how many votes one get just see who r counting those votes

@ democratic pakistani

in NA-126, even in 2002 when NS was not there, NS supported liaqat Baluch ( his own vote bank is not even 10000 here) got 44000 and PPP candidate got 14000 votes. So there was a big big difference and even now PPP are not counting on this seat any way. They know this is not the area to work on.

@ Kami
your idea of survey is good but i think we already have a detailed analysis constituencywise, so a random survey will not give much accurate guestimate.

I would make my educated guess and say that

the parties would will national seats like this

PPP = 47%
PML N = 25%
PML Q = 20%
MQM = 3%
MMA = 4%
others = 1%

Idrees Bajwa-Mir Hussain-Firdaous baigam from Bajwat Sialkot, you are predicting the winner be Idrees Bajwa is not digestable, Coz PPP vote bank is intact & league vote bank would be distributed between Q & N, for last so many times Mir Hussain is winning from here even last time at Qs ticket.

Would you elaborate the logic of prediction?

also I would like to add that PPP and the PML(PML N before it was broken ) were equally powerful. Now however, the PML (N and Q) vote bank would be split specially in their heartland of punjab and PPP would take advantage of it and would win half the punjab seats, most of the sindh seats. hence PPP would lead on the national front.

@Asif
in 2002, (when NS was not in Pakistan, not even taking part in campaign remotely), Idrees Bajwa(district president of PMLN) lost to amir hussain by only 1500 votes ( 52378 vs 50761), while PPP canidate got only 25329 votes and was not in the contest in this way.

PPP vote here is strengthend becos of more AWAN brathery votes, Amir Hussain is facing some problems becos Viru brothers are underhand opposing him.
For Idrees Bajwa, things are better as NS is here and locally he has gained support than losing.
Amir Hussain could not succeed to get river bridge even in the area even after many promises, so no mega project slogan also there.
Also PMLN has better alignment with provinc
ial candidates while others have tried to adjsut outsdiers form party.

I donot wanna boast, but once on this forum like about 3-4 months ago I said one thing that the elections gonna be three way split b/w Nawaz Sharif, Benazir and Musharraf - and that is what it seems like gonna be guys.

Muhahahaha! The prediction is true!

So Mush wins, isn’t this mush’s win that we all are now thinking of elections and not about the Imprisoned judiciary, anyways, BB will be the new but weak PM, PML-Q a strong opposition with MQM and NS will be seen frying fishes at the Food street of Lahore.

I don’t think Nawaz will take majority of seats , instead it I think it will be PPP. I say this because here is what i think will happen.

Sindh - MQM, PPP, Pir Pagarah
Balochistan - PPP, PML Q, PML N
NWFP - Maulana Diesel, PPP, ANP
Punjab- PML N, PPP, PML Q ; these three will have a tremendous fight amongst themselves in Punjab and its tough to predict who comes on top.

PPP has presence in all 4 provinces so I think they will have an edge over nawaz….it will be very interesting.

I just hope and pray that the maulana brigade gets thrown out of NA and PA.

AOA,
For NA 115,admin mentioned about PMLQ Naseer Khan. As for I know about this constituency (I m residing there); position of Indipendent lady Sumera Yasir is very strong. She independently contested elections last time and was runner up and behind from Naseer Khan for only 3000 votes and this time her vote bank has increased a lot. So I will say if you have some correspondence in this constituency, u can highlight the candidate after corroboration (may be I m wrong).

My guess is the three major parties with decreasing number of seats after elections will be

1. Q League (Most seats because of rigging).
2. PPP (Jiyala vote bank is still intact).
3. N League (Third because their vote bank is fractured because their refusal to boycott)

Where is Ghulam Mustafa Khar?

Great Work!

Does ANYONE know about the 2 BOMB blasts at Hamza Model School in Satelite Town, Rawalpindi ?

It seems that all such news is being hidden while anything that happens on the other side of the Indus river-( Frontier) is being given a lot of emphasis

NA-56 Lota (Fresh) Vs Lota (Stale)

@asif
I think the Stale lota will win.

Hi Admin!

May I ask following:

1- What was the criterion used for the predictions.

2- Did you count for the changes in political affiliations of the local groups?

I think your predictions are entirely based on personal political bias with no truth of ground realities. Should you like, I can debate you on constituency to constituency basis for the entire country. My arguments will be based on factual ground realities, past results, and support trends in every constituency. I will urge you to retrieve this trend and use the candidate list of Dec. 16th. to speculate. This reflects political, academic, and intellectual immaturity if not dishonesty. By the way, I predicted few things on your website. All of those came true. I predicted that NS will be sent back on his first attempt. That was true. I predicted that PMLN could not gather even 2000 people at NS first attempt. That was true. I predicted BB will have at least 200,000 people for her reception. That was close to reality. I predicted that with BB insistence NS will be back prior to next election. That happened to be true. I predicted that IK will be handed over to police by the student wing of his spiritual leader (this one was not on this web site), that happened to be true.
Should you like, I can contribute as a writer or argue with you on predictions of upcoming elections on constituency basis.

All those hypocrates and selfish so called politicians are back to support a Dictator.

Forget about these calculations. Its silly. Do you think Musharaf declared elections without HOME WORK
The winners and loosers list is on his table as well as the TRUE calculations of SEATS.

He is a COMMONDO with a wonderful team of pakistani political EXPERTS, agencies and strong BACKING of US.

Aamir

i vow i shall give charity comprising my 2 months salary if sheikhoo loses from his 2 constituencies.

@amir

you sumed it up really well..

but since ns is taking part i think ns supproters are getting excited..but that wouldnt last long…he will regret participating..

u guies think that mush who refused the SC decision and kicked NS back on sep 10th will give him as many seats as you mentioned…..mush is a beghairet and dont pretend to be nice either….so expect a shocker for NS…

My earlier comments are in moderation. You claim to be supporter of democracy and rule of law. The first principle of either is to engage in sensible arguments to develop consensus. The respect for intelligent voice even coming from the ones we do not agree 100% should be the first step. If my earlier comments require moderation then you must be the follower of intolerant leaders of Tora Bora.

Hello,

May I ask following:

1- What was the criterion used for the predictions.

2- Did you count for the changes in political affiliations of the local groups?

I think your predictions are entirely based on personal political bias with no truth of ground realities. Should you like, I can debate you on constituency to constituency basis for the entire country. My arguments will be based on factual ground realities, past results, and support trends in every constituency. I will urge you to retrieve this trend and use the candidate list of Dec. 16th. to speculate. This reflects political, academic, and intellectual immaturity if not dishonesty. By the way, I predicted few things on your website. All of those came true. I predicted that NS will be sent back on his first attempt. That was true. I predicted that PMLN could not gather even 2000 people at NS first attempt. That was true. I predicted BB will have at least 200,000 people for her reception. That was close to reality. I predicted that with BB insistence NS will be back prior to next election. That happened to be true. I predicted that IK will be handed over to police by the student wing of his spiritual leader (this one was not on this web site), that happened to be true.
Should you like, I can contribute as a writer or argue with you on predictions of upcoming elections on constituency basis.

My fellow country men

I am not going to give you exact numbers, however let me tell you that you all will be surprised.

believe it or not, PML-N will be in majority (because there is a reason, why I let him back ) PMLQ and PPP will run for 2nd position.

see my innocent country men…this way I will kill two..three…four birds with one stone. by doing this…i will further divide the opposition. (I don’t like NS and BB talking to each other) BB will scream rigging rigging…but no one will listen…because the other opposition leader has won.

This is my game plan. I think admin has posted it correctly under “Summary of National Assembly Seats”

Following are results based on my calculations. Calculations were based on 2002 results where seats with less than 10000 vote margin were considered based on factors like
a) MMA split
b) Nawaz’s return and its impact in his strongholds
c) Winning/No.2 candidate switching party
d) Backlash to PPP in urban centers of central and northern Punjab
e) Boycott of APDM parties

Disclaimers are
a) A massive anti MMA wave in Frontier can change the results and might give gains to PPP S, PML N, PPP and ANP.

b) Country wide seat adjustments between parties.

c) A strong pro-PPP wave in Southern Punjab and Sindh.

d) Massive rigging.

e) A better PPP showing than expected in North and Central Punjab.

Margin of Error is /-15%

Results are:
PML - Q (including PML-F, PML-Z and NA): 42-57
PML - N: 42-57
PPP: 89-102
ANP: 0-5
PPP Sherpao: 2-2
MQM: 16-16
Total Seats: 272

Here’s a brief snapshot of Pindi District.

Favored Likely Leaning Toss-Up
NA-48 Yes
NA-49 PPP
NA-50 PMLN
NA-51 PPP
NA-52 PMLN
NA-53 PMLQ
NA-54 PPP
NA-55 PMLQ
NA-56 Yes

Favored:Clear Front Runner
Likely: Front Runner
Leaning:Emerging as Front Runner
Toss-Up No Front Runner

This is not accurate prediction of 2008 elections but a current snapshot, I will share with you the predictions after Dec. 16th.

@Raja
I think we should not be too hard on @dmin as he is just tryng to keep the debate lively; personally i think our main issue is judiciary these fradulent elections are an old and favorite game of the army. After reading ur comments, it seems u do have an admirable analytical mind, so what would u predict now, what is going to happen after the emergency is lifted?

NA 48 = Toss-Up
NA 49 = PPP Likely
NA 50 = PMLN Leaning
NA 51 = PPP Favorite
NA 52 = PMLN Likely
NA 53 = PMLQ Likely
NA 54 = PPP Likely
NA 55 = PMLQ Favorite
NA 56 = Toss-Up

@ zenith

One of the leading moral philosopher Kant used the term “Reciprocity.” The term was used to refer to treat others the way you want to be treated yourself by others. I have no personal issue with Admin. He wants to question every one but hates to be questioned himself. That is a contradiction which is true reflective of Pakistani society. We all want equal treatment for all by the law as long as equality favors us. If we want Mush to take criticism and not ban Electronic Media then we should respect the criticism on us by others as well. That’s all I am trying to convey to him. I am neither 100% right nor can I prove that my comments are 100% right but am willing to listen to others with open ears and eyes despite their criticism of me. We can not teach Mush of morality, ethics, and democracy if we can not accept the same standards for ourselves.

Please share only educated views backed by logic. You can share the overall mood within your constituencies and cities in Pakistan.

All irrelevant comments will be removed
…………………………………..

Hi
I whish u r right but this so called survay of urs is nothing but just a wishful thinking.

1. You have overlooked the ISI factor(rigging)

2. According to this many pro mush r gonna lose and pervaiz elahi wont even be elected as MP.
MY not very educated view is that PML-N is only gonna get 30-35 seats. There is a chance NS is only gonna win 77 seats if U become Caretaker PM.

I am from NA106 it use to be some other NA before. I am kind of surprise to see PPP being the strongest in that region because it’s a Muslim Leage area but i guess things have changed a lot.

I hope U r gonna tell us that on what basis u came up with ur Yellow candidates. Did u check the previous record or did u get the feed back from all over pakistan including FATA?

If NS wins HE is gonna make us slaves of Saudis and i wud rather be an American slave than a Saudi one. NS time there was so much freedom of expression that JUNOON (a music group) was not allowed to perform on PTV.
Pakistan never Changes.

@ RAZA

You make an excellent point. We expect government to change but the crucial change should come from us. Are we willing to accept the law equal for all citizens? We answer yes until we are not the part of the privileged class.
The fundamental declaration must be that all humans are created equal and all of us have the right to life, liberty, and pursuit of our dreams within the consensually developed rules, laws, regulations, ethics, and morality standards. Unless and until we accept that as a starting point for all irrespective of religion, ethnicity, caste, or creed, we can not develop a society where governing regime will tolerate difference of opinion as a legitimate principle.

Rigging or no rigging
Fair or no fair
Partial or no partial
Transparent or no transparent

Whatever you call it…..! and

Mark my words on your calenders…..

“Q league is going to win and Pervez Elahi is the next prime minister”

which part of this statement dont you understand???

All of you guys are just pseudo intellectuals who do not understand the dynamics of the politics of tne banana republic of the land of pures.

Salam,

For NA-239 i think the likely winner would be Kunwar Qutubuddin Khan instead of Qadir Patel of the PPPP. Kunwar Qutubuddin has great support in the area and he has previously defeated Munwar Hassan of the Jamat-e-Islami from karachi who himself was an extremely strong candidate. Kunwar Qutubuddin is being supported by MQM and he has strong support from the Pakhtoon corner( who are large in number) of that area in karachi. Finally, even though he is the chief organizer of that PML-F, he is contesting the election as an independent like before. For me Mr.Kunwar is the favourite to win from Karachi I. Please revise your prediction if possible.
Cheers!

@ Naheed

I marked your words, please mark my words as well, Anyone else except him will be the prime minister. Future is obvious to observers, only politically blind can not see it.

http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1100313975&Issue=NP_KHI&Date=20071211

If elections are held today:

NA-198 PPP Favorite
NA-199 PPP Favorite
NA-200 PPP Favorite
NA-201 Toss-Up
NA-202 PPP Leaning
NA-203 PML Leaning
NA-204 PPP Favorite
NA-205 PPP Favorite
NA-206 PPP Favorite
NA-207 PPP Favorite
NA-208 PPP Favorite
NA-209 PPP Favorite
NA-210 Toss-Up
NA-211 PML Leaning
NA-212 PPP Leaning
NA-213 PPP Favorite
NA-214 PPP Favorite
NA-215 PPP Favorite
NA-216 Toss-Up
NA-217 PPP Favorite
NA-218 PPP Favorite
NA-219 MQM Favorite
NA-220 MQM Favorite
NA-221 PPP Favorite
NA-222 PPP Favorite
NA-223 PPP Favorite
NA-224 Toss-Up
NA-225 PPP Favorite
NA-226 PPP Favorite
NA-227 PPP Favorite
NA-228 Toss-Up
NA-229 PML Favorite
NA-230 PML Favorite

Punjab National assembly constitutencies

http://www.ecp.gov.pk/content/docs/National_Punjab.pdf

i think GOVT is going to give full support to PPP in rigging the polls.
interier sindh they can win without rigging.
another areas of pakistan…definetly they need GOVT support to win …thats the part of the deal…
i can see after election MUSHARRAF would be the strongest person…
BB in sindh,ALTAF in karachi,NS in south punjab,chudhris in north punjab,mullahas in NWFP and ASFANDYAR WALI KHAN IN bluchistan…
that would be a hung parlaiment …
planned by MUSH ….
so there would be no consensus on any issue in future …and at the end of the day ,FINAL order would come from a CIVILIAN MUSHARRAF BHAI …..

Raja

Your breakdown of the seats confirm my fears that you are living in a FOOLS paradise.

Well with the election, I agree with some posts here that NS well be in opposition, BB will be PM and Mush will be President. So 2002 repeated.

Imran khan and CJ will be history. All over and very well planned by US, BB and Mush.

I gotta tell you something if anybody is listening……..

We always vote enblock for Mian Nawaz Sharif since his enterance into politics as we happen to live in the same constituency from where he always is the candidate. We have more than 50 mohalla votes (mostly Doctors, Lawyers, Professors, Engineers and Business owners, you may wish to call them representatives of civil society) always supporting and voting in his favor. Not that he is any genius or any extra ordinary politician but because he always kept a check on Benazir party’s loot maar and her anti state rehtoric and objectionable activities. Now that he has joined hands with her and her peoples party to bring this country down to its knees in the name of democracy, all of us with heavy hearts have decided last night to NEVER EVER vote for him unless he denounces PPP and once again stand tall as custodian of “Nazria-e-Pakistan and become leader of Pakistan Muslim League and not a B team of Benazir.

Its interesting however the predictions should be revised after the final list of candidates is announced by the Ellection commission (the second l in the election commission is agencies miriculous DANDA which provides ligitimacy to the results in the post election night)
Hoping for the best for our future generations
Surely the people who are against the involvement of serving generals in politics should win

NA-74 = yes Dr. Muhmammal Afzal Khan Dhandla of PML-N is likely to win. Last time he got 74000 votes aganist Ch. Shujaat. Where Ch. Shujaat never even came to this constituency only Rasheed Akbar Niwani run his compaign and with heavy rigging CH. Shujaat won.

Those who think NS is supporting PPP need to think again. It is only a tactics to handle many problems at the moment.If you read between the lines then he is tackling Q-League, army, molvies, PPP all. Q league wanted him to stay away from elections but that did not happen. At times one has to choose between Target No.1 and Target No.2 and then go for it one by one.

AA announced boycott of elections

http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/dec2007-daily/12-12-2007/update.htm#21

BREAKING NEWS

AITAZAZ HAS OFFICIALLY WITHDRAWN FROM LAHORE SEAT AND SAYS HE IS NOT GOING TO CONTEST. He is going to withdraw his papers.

this article for those who who think NS has done wrong

http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/story/2007/12/071212_political_anaysis_si.shtml

I know some constituencies and I think the prediction is totally opposite. In Haripur, Ome r Ayub khan would be winner,no matter how Nawaz sharif is popular in Hazara. Similary Amanullah khan jadoon would give a tough fight to Sardar Mehtaab Abbassi. In NA-20 Mansehra ,no body ever defeated Sardar Yusuf or his son because they get all votes from their biradri irrespective of political affiliation .Though last time competition was tough and Tirmzi(whom i voted for) who fought election for the first time as independent candidate though backed by Army cirlces(as he is retired general) and Syed Qasim Shah(a prominent but corrupt personality in Mansehra politics) lost only by 1000 or some votes. Any how it depends upon how religious vote swings and Tirmizi can’t win easily because his votes from Syed tribe are divided between MMA candidate and himself.Had I been there, I would have boycotted the election along with my family and relatives.

Though I expect tough fight but no body can declare now who would be winner.

@yaqub - I agree with you - at the moment NS wants to first settle scores with Q league and wants to teach them a lesson. He says he cannot do much and cannot participate in elections so it would be sweet revenge for him if he manages to annhilate Q league - and that is he after now.

His strategy is

NA KHAYLAIN GAY AUR NA HI KHAYLNEY DEIN GAY.

Vote for NS and annhilate Pervez
Muharraf and Pervez Elahi - this should be the official slogan

Can you or any one else start documenting methods of election rigging in Pakistan. I assume that all parties have done this act of rigging in the past, so PMLN has ample experience in this “discipline”. It would be better to list itemized practical fraud and not any hypothetical speculations.

I start with mine.

- Sudden announcement of elections while serious constitutional and legal questions are still unresolved, opposition leaders in jails. (Not enough time for preparation
- Pre-poll voter list chopping by Musharraf’s sElection Commission
- Disqualification of candidates by Musharraf Kangaroo Courts

look at this..very funny..

http://nawaiwaqt.com.pk/urdu/daily/dec-2007/12/cartoon.php

@ amm

NO body said that these are final results. still few days before fianl lists of candidates and in the mean time there will be many seat adjsutments and many peole changing party tickets etc.
for NA-19, even last time , it was becos of MMA split votes that helped omar ayub to win and there was no smooth sailing for him even in the absence of NS. Other factor is many local nazims changing positions.
I agree that it will be tough fight between Amanulllah jadoon and Sardar mehtab. There was news that amanulla jadoon might ask his son to contest becaus of his health problem. So currently Mehtab abbasi has slight edge and that is status of today.

for NA-20, u already mentioned that how close fight it was last time, PMLN has still to decide the final candidate.
MMA candidate split a lot of votes, both based on brathery and religious voters, this time they cant do it to get 35000 votes. Overall it will be a v close contest and days to come will decide when local major groups will take positions.

Qaaf League - 115 Seats
- Benazir Party - 90 Seats
- Molvee Party - 45 Seats
- Nawaz League - 40 Seats
- Altaf Movement - 20 Seats
- ANP - 12 Seats

These will be most possible outcome because of Govt rigging as per http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/index.aspx?Issue=NP_LHE&Page=National_PAGE&Date=20071212&Pageno=3&View=1

Great News about Aitzaz boycott. This will be the main headline in tomorrow’s newspapers.

@ Anis Mughal

I agree that for NA-115, sumaira yasir is a strong candidate, but last time dofference was 5000.
As Naseer Khan has bene allowed to contest now so will be a tough battle there. Local adjsutments are still to be made on this constituency so current status may change by 16 dec. Currently Naseer is having a slight margin.

Let us explore

What is the difference Between ,Chaydhary Family ,Nawaz sharif and Benazir

Give me the commonalities in terms og

.Political Philosphy
.religious/Secular
. Obedience to the real Masters ,the almai gunda mafia
. Personal Sharafat
.View about Israel

Leave aside supporting the dictator ,all the three have done ,two openly and one by doing but not accepting

@GM

About NA 115

Is samaria yasr the wife of former MPA

I believe is Rasheed ,who was also MP for AK

@Anis Mughal

Are you from Zafarwal or Nonar or from Solehr

@ Ahson,

yes, Yasir rasheed,

which area u r from in this cosntituency?

The whole of Chakwal would vote for Ayaz Amir and no one else. Even now Tahir Iqbal has withdrawn in favour of Ayaz Amir.

Inshallah from Talagang - Pervez Elahi is going to lose badly and Faiz Tamman is going to win hands down.

So NA 60 and 61 are going to PMLN - Inshallah

PPPP—————-131( 15-)
Q LEAGUE————-55( 10-)
N LEAGUE————-40( 5-)
MMA(EXC QAZI)——–22( 5-)
MQM——————21( 3-)
ANP——————11( 2-)

AND I WILL SUGGEST @DMIN TO START ANALYZING EACH CONTITUENCY SO THAT WE CAN GET CLEAR PICTURE.AND THE CANDIDATES U PREDICTED TO WIN THE ELECTIONS R NOT RIGHT UP TO 40%

As per your prediction Faiz Tamman will beat Ch Pervez elahi in NA-61. I belong to that constituency and i must say that at the moment he is the weakest candidate of that constituency. It is just like saying that Ali Ahmed Kurd will beat both Javed Hashmi and Sheikh Rasheed.

Dont forget Faiz tamman got above 101000 votes last time as independent candidate and beating mansoor hayat (then PMLQ candidate)who also got above 76000 votes.
Pervaiz Rlahi chose this seat because of friend of Mounis Elahi, hafiz Ammar Yasir.

Faiz tamman is standing against pervaiz elahi, Mansoor hayat tamman alos infact is against him and any time will officially announce.
Ex-MPA saleem iqbal, tehsil nazim, is the last resort pervaiz elahi is counting on and saleem iqbal himself is waiting for positive response from PMLN leadership after sending his request.
Ghulam Abbas group(district nazim) is no more useful for pervaiz elahi on this seat as firstly for them their own seat is hard to win and also many local nazims have and are changing poositions. Hope this explains the situation.

If you have any specific information abt the are of any major group joining PMLQ, plz do share here.

http://www.jang.net/jm/12-12-2007/pic.asp?picname=1712.gif

@ faisal khan

I think it will be good for all of us if u can share ur comments and views about some constituencies more specifically.
just giving overall seats is nothing more than a TUKKA.

@GM

I agree with you. Sajid is Q friend. Faiz Taman will win as PML N vote will also go to him. People of the area will never vote for Pervez Ellahi.. PARA LIKHA PANJAB.

@GM

Waisay keep faith Sajid will vote for PML N.:-))

@GM
As for as last time is concerned u may know that Sardar Mumtaz tamman and Ghulam abbas supported Faiz Tamman. I would love if Pervez Elahi loses from this constituency but at the moment it is only a wishful thinking. Saleem Iqbal has a vote bank and same is true for Ghulam Abbas. I can not digest this fact that Ghulam Abbas will not be able to openly support Pervez Elahi. In my opinion Ghulam abbas is drawing a new political line in that area and he is trying to make Sardar of Tammans a history. Mansoor Hayat and Sardar Mumtaz will never support Faiz, and how come Saleem Iqbal go against Pervez Elahi when Zahoor anwar is contesting on a Q-ticket?

I second maan

AA boycott news no less than the NS news going for elections.

So put it on the front page.

@ wajid
I will never vote for a candiadate who changed three parties in last 5 years nor i will vote for Q-league

Boycott,Boycott

@Asif

It seems we don’t follow principles but personalities. And this is the main reason we couldn’t have rule of law and real democracy over the last 60 years.

I see most of us who are discussing elections and its results were advocating boycott last week before NS ’s decision to go for elections.

I don’t see any difference between us, being educated people and those “maanga gaama jiaylas” of PPP who follow BB blindly.

@ MYA I am repeating my analysis….. can you or anybody else convince me how NS decision to participate is justified?

So Musharraf is the winner as per admin predictions.

Total seats = 261 and 2/3 of 261 = 174 seats the magic number for Mush to get all legitimacy.

Benazir 64 Q 64 Fazlu 15 MQM 19 Pagra 6 Sherpao 2 Ind 17 = 187

13 more seats then required.

BB next prime minister Mush president and Iftikhar Chaudhry (history).

End of the story.

NS…..do you have anything to say now? Please don’t tell me that BB will go with you.

I would request all of you that we should support those who are fighting for truth, rule of law and real democracy.

Don’t support personalities because of your old affiliation with them.

If a person you have supporting for a long time deceives you should kick him/her at her/his … rather than keep on supporting him blindly otherwise he/she would be called clever and you a stupid person.

Pakistan needs a strong media and a credible judiciary; people like NS and BB are not contesting elections they are settling personal scores with thier adversaries; election is an event it should be given importance , but to a certain extent; the army plays yet another game of holding elections; i can tell u that all of army’s strenght is being utilized for these elections, the other day some children of some airforce officers were injured , by some one, why its just the desparation of the people of NWFP that they have lost so much that they have lost it. it is not related to this topic but the link below describes what will become of pakistan.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=QDAMZChOqSs

First of all, there are 60 more seats addition to 272 seats of NA. These 60 seats belong to women and these seats will also play a major role. In total there are 332 seats in NA. Should we consider these seats as well?

WATCH CAPITAL NEWS ON GEO NEWS NOW

Please check the Election Commission of Pakistan website to verify the no. of seats in NA.

http://www.ecp.gov.pk/content/Order_conduct.html

Here is what newspapers are reporting….

Q: 115 seats
PPP: 90
N: 40
Altaf(Jahnami; bound for hell)20

http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1100314920&Issue=NP_LHE&Date=20071212

DAWN
Pakistan has surprised many muslim nations after voting for israel, in a UN summit. link below
http://dawn.com/2007/12/12/top5.htm

@ FAROOQ

special seats are rewarded on pro rota basis to direct seats, so infact these seats will not make any difference in absolute term.

@ sajid,

i think u r underestimating role of mansoor hayat against pervaiz elahi.
and there is no surprise of any Q league memebr returning ticket and leving party.
In last few days more than 17 people did this.
Even today rana umar nazir from NA-99 returned PMLQ ticekt.
Saifullah brothers (saleem saifullah ws a promient minster in last govt) are having local seat adjsutment with PMLN in lakki Marwat and might contest as independent.
from NA-16, GG jamal return ticket and contesting independent, 2 PMLQ ticket holders returned tickets from multan.
similarly in Bahawalpur 3 ex MNAs leaving PMLQ. in Rajanpur dareshak groupd preferring as independent candidate, Lagahri grp in deep troubel and fighting for their survival in their area (although mostly by their own relatives).
so in short in next few days a news regarding peole leaving PMLQ will b coming.

@Asif the site is called pkpolitics.com and elections is what politics is about, the lawyers movement is a good cause getting coverage all around but the biggest political news in Pakistan today is the upcoming elections, every one knows they will be rigged but they are going to take place hence this site should keep this as the main focus. As NS said if there is a new parliament then the top of his agenda is restoration of the CJ so it is not that much different of an objective then the lawyers. Just the modus-operendi is different.

@asif
Just keep this in mind that NO movement in the world can be successful without the support of masses. Be it so called “civil society” movement or any other made up movement. It will always need support from common people on street, otherwise it is destined to fail no matter what.

GEO has special episode with Iftikhar ahmed (of jawab Deh) and started district wise Analysis of all seats.

Next programme on GEO is capital Talk, and the topic is Manefesto of PPP and PMLQ.

so what u think abt GEO, hamid mir and Iftikhar ahmed now??
But one thing is sure, even if u dont like it, GEO will NOT allow any one to have a propaganda agaisnt GEO and no other channel willl even allow.

Its shameful that some people are not showing tolerance and understanding and realising that besides having the right of not allowing the messages against the website, u r being allowed.

Some peole are jumping without using their mind for a single moment when their comemnt is on moderation.
moderation is NOT MANUAL, rather clearing the comments under moderation is manual.
there might be many words to filter comments and its jsut matter of time when reasnable commets are released.
Peole who call them self EDUCATED dont have patience to understand that?
Self accountablity is first step before pointing fingers to others.
If u cant appreciate some ones efforts, keeping your mouth shut sure will help then.

@Farooq Ahmed

the women seats are distributed proportionally to the number of seats parties gain on regular 272 seats. therefore they will just be add-on to whatever each party gets and will not change the overall party position in NA

@ Ali Pir

I dont know which area u r talking abt?
Kunwar Qutbuddin did not defeat munawwar hassan from NA-239 ( both were not contesting there.

Also PPP lost this seat to MMA candidate( who switched sides on presidential elections.
first MMA is already split, MQM is having their own candidate and in favourable conditiosn for MQM, he is alsoa stirng candidate now.
JI is not participating in this elections, ex MNA of PMLN Ejaz shafi , another candidate is also not there ( he expired soe time ago.
SO currently PPP is in better position, but based on scale of rigging, MQM may snatch this seat.

@all boycotters

please don’t waste your time in convincing people to boycott at least on this thread. btw why you all guys are even inerested in visiting this thread when you are boycotting elections.

It is very naive approach to use a broad brush and cast all politician aside, label them power hungry and corrupt. Many of these politicians are member of so called “civil society”. There are many respected members within every party. Q-league has S.M Zafar, whose integrity and honesty is known across the board. Amin Fahim most definitely is not power hungry. Aitizaz Ahsan himself is a politician and very loyal to BB. Chaudary Nisar in PML-N doesn’t fit the bill of power hungry and corrupt label.

@Azeem

There are reasonable people in PPP and PML-N, but sadly they are too few. Most of them are traditional power hungry robbers.

/Saqib

One thing I like about NS, contrary to general perception, is his tolerance for other point of view. he is willing to accommodate people who are surely going to differ with him on many issues. we can see in his candidate list that many of the high profile people are given tickets and expected to win, like ayaz amir (cannot be bogged down by anyone, read his columns in dawn or watch counter point on ary), javed hashmi (we all know how hard this nut is to crack), ahsan iqbal (i saw him many a times criticizing NS on different issues), khawaja saad rafiq to name a few. We all know in case NS forms a govt, these people will be ministers for sure.

misfit politicians

Javed hashmi,ch nisar are misfit in pml-n

raza rabbani,aitezaz ahsan are misfit in pppp

mushahid hussain is misfit in pmlq

i think aa and raza rabani will leave pppp sooner or later …same i hope for JH…

they shld all jion pti….

I think one posisbility is that an unusually high number of independents might win this time. This will help respond to the cry of rigging that BB might raise. The official response might be: there was no rigging as independents and not pro-government candidates have won. After the results are announced a large number of these independents may then join PML(Q) to support Mush.

Tipu

@Imran Malik

What do you know about Ch. Nisar?:-))

Please feel free to discuss or abuse anything you want on any other post, but I requested specifically not to discuss irrelevant comments on this specific post.

Admin

@WAJID

he looks pretty decent guy ,the way he talks and the way he presents himself in the media exudes honesty and make you believe him…

is there any thing fishy that you know ab him??

i know he was petrolium minster in ns first govt and then some other close to pm post in 2nd govt….his bro is general and he was responsible for seuggesting ns on mush’s selection …..

any thing else you want to tell?