I am just wondering how SHUJAAT is winning election. wILL the ahmad mukhtar be a serious threat.

Anyway fair election is key to the future

not at all , that is why shujaat is not even running his compaign,his brother wajahat, &imran masood r running his compaign,
almost all the supporters of ahmad mukhtar have joined pmlq ,
even paganwala family has joined the pmlq.
he will even win from na 112 sialkot ,
he will give his seat to some big pmlq leader who will lost from his seat

your comments
1- Gujar Khan’s Ch Riaz is not that bad a candidate since he has never lost. His brother though became lota after 2002 loss. Raja pervez has only once won an election
2-Rai mansab ali, I think, is now a PML-N candidate as he has paid expenses for the reprintin of ballots.

@admin
please make this topic conspicous on the front page since it is our only source of first hand info about a constituency.

PPP will win at least 120 seat because of sympathy votes. Plus Makoodom Amin Fahim is acceptable to establishment and Generals of Pakistan Army. Plus they would not mind Zardari seating in Lahore and play the chess game. Think to lookout is how long establishment would tolerate PPP in govt.

Shahid Kinnare

would like to add is, how they create fiction between Fahim and Zardari

@ khizarkyz

info abt rai mansab ali has been already updated in the next rev (along with other changes)

For ch Riaz, i agree that he is gud candidate but in this area situation will not b clear untill last week b4 elections.

thanks

@ mian

If these guys are winning , that is not that they are popular, but becuase of use of power, bridari AND GUNS. Gujrat is notorious for ghundagardi by chouadries.

This is not national level politics.

I dont know how Ch. Riaz can be called a good candidate. In the previous elections he had won because this is a staunchly Muslim League area. But people have really got tired of him and his antics. He belongs to ‘arain’ baradri whose votes are not significant in Pothohar unlike in Punjab. This seat would have been a sure shot PML(N) had it been anybody other than him or his family.

He has earned a lot of bad name for himself for alleged corruption and moral turpitude. In 2002, he could not contest because he was not a graduate and instead put forward his younger brother who lost miserably. Now he has ‘procured’ a degree and is contesting.

Before Dec. 27, he was badly trailing PPP’s Raja Parvez Ashraf. Now there is a contest because many of PML(Q) voters have reneged and as they don’t see PPP as an alternative, the only alternative for them is PML(N).

So now he is in a competitive position but Parvez Ashraf of PPP is still favourite to win.

@ admin
In NA-61 there is no chance of faiz tamman winning the elections. Pervez elahi will win easily

@sajidaqeel
i hope too P elahi will win too, but can u explain little bit na 61.thanks

if elections are free and fair this time..then the chaudhrys sould start packing there bags cuz there time is over
but first lets just hope nothing terrible happens in muharram…otherwise there is a chance of election postponement again.

Update
NA178: PML-N retired its candidate against Nawbzada Mansoor.

@mian
In 2002 elections Faiz tamman won from NA-61 by a margin of 26000 votes to Mansoor hayat tamman(By the way tamman is the name of village to which they belong and not a cast). Mansoor hayat tamman was then a PML-Q candidate and Faiz tamman was independent enjoying the support of his uncle Mumtaz tamman and District nazim Sardar Ghulam Abbas. Sardar Ghulam abbas supported faiz tamman and ensured Q that if he wins he will join Q. So Q allowed District Nazim to support him becas it was a win-win situation for Q in any case. However after winning the elections Faiz tamman joined PPP on the wish of his uncle Mumtaz tamman who was in PPP and thus annoyed district Nazim. Later on he annoyed his uncle too by joining PPP Patriot. Mansoor Hayat tamman got 76000 votes in 2002 elections with the support of Tehsil Nazim tallagang Malik Saleem Iqbal who was then in PML-N.
Now the current situation is that district Nazim chakwal Sardar Ghulam abbas, tehsil Nazim tallagang Malik Saleem Iqbal, and Sardar Mumtaz tamman all supporting Ch. Pervez Elahi. Both Mansoor tamman and Faiz tamman do not enjoy the support of any main group except their own vote bank, which is hardly between 30000—40000 apiece. So Pervez elahi is expected to win by a huge margin.

@ admin

From NA 21 Independent candidate Nawabzada Salahuddin Saeed is in better position to win the election. I have mentioned a detailed analysis of NA 21 on the ‘Discuss your local constituency’ page. please do take a look at it,

thanks

Asset or liability?
http://dawn.com/2008/01/19/nat2.htm

2002 Elections were real farce. I remember turnout was very low but interestingly enough PML(Q) managed to get more than 73 lakh votes. It was amazing that a newly formed party got so many votes. Details of party’s vote are as follows:
PPP 73 lakh 90 thousands
PML(N) 33 lakh 20 thousands
PML(Q) 73 lakh 30 thousands
MMA 32 lakh 90 thousands

If we add both PMLs vote it turn out to be more than One crore, PML never has this much vote bank, and remember PML(N) was getting JIs vote also in previous elections. Another fact is that many of their leaders contested as independent candidate like Sh. Rashid who won from two seats.

In fact ISI added thousands of vote in each constituencey in Punjab to make sure PML(Q) gain upper hand. Humayun Akhter Khan lost by almost 25000 votes and people in his constituency woke up in the morning with his winning news. Imran Khan also exposed many times how much vote was added in his constituency to his opponent’s ballet boxes. Ayaz Amir has also uncovered stories how election cells were made by each Core Commanders and even interviews were conducted by them before 2002 elections.

Plus in the constituencies where PML-Q won, the turnout was remarkably high. e.g. In Narowal, on Ahsan Iqbal’s seat, it was more than 80%. Similarly the current deputy speaker won his seat despite losing on local council seat in local bodies just b4 elections.

In NA 21 the situation is quite different in these elections. As Nawabzada Salahuddin have won 5 times from here and people are dissapointed from him.
Also the MMA candidate(JUI-F) have withdrawn in favour of PML-N Faiz Khan as Faiz khan’s cozin Azam Khan swati(senator JUI-F) have suppoerted him by withdrwaing the MMA candidate.
In last elections Faiz khan gained around 26,000 votes without any party support, now he has got support of PML-N and MMA.
In Agror and Pakhal vallies Faiz khan will clean sweep, as Pakhal people are mostly supporting Faiz khan for NA seat and Mufti Kifayat-ullah on PF seat.
So all around NA-21 is going towards PML-N’s Faiz khan.

@khizarkyz

You are right. I guess ISI added more than 40 lakh votes for PMLQ in 2002 elections.

I have been following elections results since 1985 and actually vote pattern remains the same. PPP always has edge in Sind and rural areas of Punjab. Whereas PMLN always fair better in urban areas.

In 1997 elections PMLN won 137 NA seats compared to 73 in 1993 but they added only 7 lakh vote (81 lakh in 1993 and 88 lakh in 1997). Reason being the PPP voters was really disappointed in 1997 and they never came out to vote. Same thing happened in 2002 elections when PMLN’s voters stayed out. Turnout was very low in 2002 and actually PMLQ had won only 15 to 20 seats in those elections.

So it was 2002 when Musharraf was strong and opposition was weak. Both BB and NS were living in exile. Now compare whatever happened after that and the charged sentiments of general public. Many factors have been added:

1. Murder of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto.
2. Ever deteriorating law and order situation.
3. Lal Masjid fiasco.
4. Treatment meted out to Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan.
5. Unprecedented price hike.
6. Unprecedented corruption.
7. Performance of PMLQ.
8. Sacking of Chief Justice.
9. May 12 massacre of civilians by the Ghundas of MQM.
10. State terrorism against lawyers and civil society by Ghundas of Gujrat.
11.Stubbornnes of Musharraf to cling to power and destroying each and every institution of country, showing to the west that he is the only option for them otherwise Taliban will grab power, confusing the world regarding Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals and putting the entire program in danger.

12. Sending all the judiciary home and shameless treatment to the honorable Judges of Courts.
13. Sanctions on free media.
14. Taking the last leaf of bread from the mouth of poor citizens. Corruption, irregularities and kickbacks by ruling mafia. Manipulating time again shortage of Atta, Sugar and other basic commodities.
15. Killing and arresting hundreds of innocent people without a trace.
16. Killing thousands in FATA, NWFP and Baluchistan including Akbar Bugti.

So on and so forth. Now if free and fair elections are held then what are the chances of PMLQ? I guess if they grab 10 seats it will be a miracle. But Imran Khan is right there is no chance of such elections. In my opinion, and may Allah prove me wrong and have mercy on us, there will be more political killings and elections will be postponed. Lives of Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif are really in danger and Ghundas of MQM and Gujrats will strike again.

pmlq will get more votes than last times because of development work in pakistan , free education. free medical. lots of roads, etc,
plus mqm and pmlf votes ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,trust me guys and watch

@mian
Is this so-called development is on the same line in which they developed our economy? or these are the same claims as those were of the bumper wheat crop. free education. free medical? is it pakistan u r talking about?

NA 108
here Mr Ejaz Ch is now the candidate of PMLN and been allotted the symbol of ‘Tiger’ as Mr Mumtaz Ahmed Tarar has withdrawn in his favour. So Plz ammend the Guesstimate as 108 being PMLN seat (which of couirse Ejaz Ch will win)

Dear kkswati,

You are right that Nawbzada Salahudin has won 5 times before and had lost 2002 election only because of the MMA factor which was very popular back then. Today MMA’s position is not the same, it has infact broken down and although JUI F candidate must have stepped down in favor of Faiz Khan that is not an important factor as no one in NA 21 knows who the JUI F candidate was.

Secondly you should not forget that there is no other candidate from Tanawal (which has almost half the votes of the constituency), in last elections the MNA Maulana Abdul Malik (JI)(also from Tanawal) had disturbed lots of Nawabzada Salahuddin’s votes from that area and Kala Dhaka.

Thirdly you are mistaken about Faiz Khan clean sweeping Agror and Pakhal. Nawabzada will get good votes from Agror and Pakhal. Infact in Pakhal if Maulana Kafayat ullah is supporting that does not make any difference as Nawabzada has his own janba there, some of whom are supporting Kafayat ullah for provincial and Kafayat ullah would never make a mistake campaigning for Faiz Khan putting his own seat at risk.

Fourthly you should check out Faiz Khans position in Kala Dhaka, he is not a known personality there and the contest there is between Nawabzada and PML Q candidate Zargul Khan.

So how can you ignore these facts and say ‘So all around NA-21 is going towards PML-N’s Faiz khan.’ Give some good reasons.

@Mian
Na aata, naa daal, naa bijli, na pani and etc. And on top of all this such tall
claims of development, nobody can be more lunatic than this.
Only thing that has progressed under mush is land mafia and suicide bombers.
Land prices have increased by ten times thus making it difficult for an avg
citizen even to buy a home, result Chuck shahzad type mafia’s wealth has
multiplied many times. This kind of development has turned the rich poor
divide ,already bad, into a misery. Open your eyes and brains , listen to
marching suicide bombers all over pakistan, it is the forebearer of the
events to come result of generations of humiliation of common people
by military junta and their feudal parasites.

@ bijli was never enough in pakistan , because other provinces dont aloow to buit LALA BAGH DAMM ,
attaa and daal r enough , this was fake shortage ,dont worry ,becauseof 27dec incident ,tranportation suffered and that happens .
as u acknowledged land is expensive , the reason people have more money to buy it , its demand is more so price is gone up.
u cannt increase the price of any thing without its demand.
with the wave of cold , lot of peolpes were using chinese heaters at there homes , like never before,this make a shortage of bijli.
same in summer , peoples have split units AC , running in common peoples homes .
we as a nation dont pay much tax , so it is hard for any govt to provide every thing
for free .
there is lot of construction going on , lot of cars are being purchased. lot of economic activity.in pakistan , alhamdulila.
these bombers will be fixed too ,
pakistan zindabad

@ Political and KK Swati.

Faiz Khan will win in Pakhal because of his beradari support and PML-N factor, Nawabzada will be clear winner in Tanawal area and Zargull in Kala Dhaka.

It is a tough fight and I think Sardar Yousaf (current district Nazim) support will be the deciding factor. He will never support Faiz Muhammad Khan because of their old tussle. I am not sure if he is supporitng Zargull khan or Nawabzada Salahuddin. If Sardar is supporting Nawabzada, then Faiz Khan has a little chance and if he is supporting zargull then It would be a tought fight and Faiz Khan might win it by a very thin margin.

Dear political,
if u visit NA 21 nowadays, u will get the real picture….the people are not risking on voting for an independent candidate Nawabzada Salahuddin, who will probably join PML-Q after winning as he was lready their part last ime..
on other hand faiz khan is clear candidate of PML-N and no-one doubt for his loyality. so this factor count a lot and people are willing for a change and the most suitable will be faiz khan of PML-N.

NA-50. Muree, Khuta, Kotli Sattian and kaller saydian in this Area total 3 people are contasting election Shahid Abbasi(PML-N), Ghulam Murtaza Satti(PPP) and Javed IqbalSatti(PML-Q).
competition is Between Only two Ghulam Murtaza Satti(PPP) and Shahid Abbassi (PML-N). the PML-Q to much Weeker position
This area there is total 4 tehsil .
1- Muree: shahid abbasi hava strong in this area because majority of peoples belong from abbassi cast and other thing Shahid Abbassi besically belong from Muree Tehsil
2- Khuta: Murtaza satti have a very clear margin in this Area because thats his home town and people are giving him vote because he belong from Khuta Tehsil.
3- Kotli Sattian: Murtaza Satti again getting very very clear margin against abbassi in this tahsil because 97% people are belong from Satti cast
4- Kaller Sadian: In this Tehsil PPP are very strong position. in the past every single election PPP won with very clear majority

So in those circumastances Ghulam Murtaza Satti will win the Election with cleary Majority.

@ Nasirsatti

wud u like to explain why Shahid khaqan abbasi never lost elections since 1988 ( even as independent candidate against both IJI and PPP candidates once).

why sattis cud never win except last elections by a margin of 10000 when MMA candidate another abbassi also bagged 28000 votes.

Now there r 2 sattis (PPP n PMLQ) form tis seats against each other, will this not b having any impact on their votes?

Dear kkswati,

I have put forward the real picture of NA 21 Mansehra to you, if you dont want to accept it, i cant do anything. The people of NA 21 have elected Nawabzada as independent candidate twice in the past and they are going to do it this time aswell. And Nawabzada had turned down PML Q ticket this time, btw PML Q has already got a candidate in the race Zargul Khan.

If you are aware of Hazara politics, you should know that in Hazara the vote is mostly personality vote and not that much of party votes. Last time in 2002 Nawaz Sharifs Son In Law’s brother Tahir Ali got only 7000 votes from NA 21 and during the local bodies elections Nawaz Sharif himself gave a telephonic adress to the public in a particular union council in Mansehra, for Union Council nazim candidate and that candidate still lost.

Nawabzada’s honesty and dedication to politics is what people remember and they want to bring that back into their lives after a 8 years gap.

@ mujtaba

I think Sardar Yousaf has a very tough fight on his hands in NA 20 and is least bothered about interfering in NA 21 seat. Most of his Gujjar braderi in Tanawal ( mainly in Union Council Shungli Bandi) are in full suport of Nawabzada and they have always been on his side.

In Kala Dhaka the position of Nawabzada is very good infact the provincial assembly candidate Namroz Khan and others have shown their full support to Nawabzada against local candidate Zargul Khan. In Pakhal Nawabzada seems to be very popular amongst the newly attached areas of Baffa and surrounding areas and so has good chance of winning there aswell.

I did not grow up with load shedding in 70&early 80, and i hope you are not thumb
sucker to remember it.
you put up ch peervaiz speech slogans here than reality on ground. Check out
last IRI survey, the top issue for pakistanis was not terrorist, it was inflation an
economic issue. Please dont tell me inflation is result of development too like
land prices.
The way land prices have gone up, it is more function of mismanaged economy
than demandD. People in Pakistan have nothing else to invest in other than
land and “Double shah”. It is more absence of other VIABLE investment opportunities.

@ zufi
in 70s and 80 s mor than fifty percent of our villages were with out bijli.
now there r few left without conections , grow up and remember those days.
in 70s , i have only 1 fan and 2 bulbs at my house .now i have 3 gezers 3 acs, 8fans 20 bulbs.2 heaters ,2 tvs.=just count the increased load on bijli.
evey where else in the world cities , where ever land prices r going up , peoples agree on that economy is good ,
for example ,china cities .indian cities .canadian cities where where homes and land price multiply 4-5 times .
i can give you names of those cities and countries .
why u dont accept economic growthof punjab and pakistan.
u will one day , u r still learning .

Musharraf came almost at the end of 1999, long after 70s and 80s.

As for electrcity, at least fifty percent of our villages had electricity in 70s and 80s as you claim. Now 100% of our cities do not hav electricty ……….. Thats the gift of mush………

Dear friendz,,,
Being a MNA of NA-21 five times, Nawabzada was the only person in national assembly, who never sopke for his constituency. H has nothing to do with the problems faced by common men. So now people are fed-up from him, even they go for the change in 2002 and most of Tanawal voted against him.
18th Feb is not far away ,,,sub dhoodh ka dhoodh aur pani ho jaye ga…
but this time the real fact in NA-21 is prominent that Faiz khan of PML-N will win, the people will go for this change.

@KKswati,
I really hope PML-N will win both seats from Mansehra, though I am cosely related to PMLQ candidate from NA-20. I have spoken with him and he himself has no hope to win. NA-20 is PML-N seat for sure, and I hope the winner would remain loyal to Nawaz Sharif. I am not so sure about NA-21. To my knowledge Azam Swati is a half-brother of Faiz Muhammad Khan (correct me if I am wrong.) .

Dear kkswati,

I dont want to list all the things done by Nawabzada Salahuddin during the five times tenure right now but just to give you a picture; he has done more than what Faiz Khan or Azam Khan can do for the people even if they live another life. The fact of the matter is that people have already tested Azam Khan and to be very frank they dont want to even listen to his name; so they know what to expect from his brother.

And Nawabzada knows more about the problems of the common man than his oppenents for example he gave NOC’s to approximately 1800 earthquake affectees in 340 villages which paved the way for the government to pay compensation worth Rs. 270 million to the resident affectees., Everyone knows his openents are running the elections just to loot and plunder, which can be seen by their track record.

Dear Brother Political,
First clarify us who is Nawabzada Salahuddin to give NOC to earthqauke effectees, he was neither am MNA nor any govt. official to issue NOC’s. In his last 5 terms as MNA, he was never available for the people of constituency and people were searching his home in Islamabad.
Also look at the change in last elections, 46000 people voted for Maulana Abdul Malik of JI, who lives in Mansoora, Lahore (giving islamic dars there, only his brother who is a govt. teacher in mansehra run his compaign)…so the people will accept the change this time also in the form of PML-N’s Faiz khan as the situation is more worse this time in the country.

for my brother Mujataba : > Azam khan sawati is not real brother of Faiz khan, infact he is his first cozin and faiz khan alwayz remained away from Azam khan’s political activities, he has his own influence despite the support provided by Azam khan through his party JUI-F.

Dear kkswati bro,

Brother I am very glad to inform to you that Nawabzada Salahuddin might not be MNA but he is the rightfull owner of that land in law and was the rightfull owner to that money and without his NCO non of these people could have acquired the cheques from the government. Nawabzada was in fact given a deal by the National and Provincial Govt. to keep half the money to himself and allow the rest to the people, but he said these people are my brothers and I will not take a single paisa from this money
On the other hand LAIQ Muhammad khan ( Faiz khan’s brother) tehsil nazim OGHI had only 11 tenants and he did not allow a single paisa to go to those tenants and obatined all money in his and his sons’ names. According to the NAB inquiry, 31 cheques were issued as compensation to members of the families of Laiq Mohammad Khan, his brothers and cousins.Eight cheques were issued in Laiq’s son Ahmad Shehryar Khan’s name alone. You can follow up on this story if you think this is not true : http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=20778
And Faiz Muhammad Khan has lost his provincial seat three times before and people there are fed up of him, now he has come to try his luck at National level and will inshallah get the same result here.

Hi Admin,

Can you please provide graphical representation of your analysis. It is very hard to read. I would suggest checking out http://www.pakistannewsroom.com/elections/ and get some idea from there.

Humza

Obviously the nasirsatti guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about. In NA-50 Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has a clear lead and if current conditions prevail he will win quite comfortably.