Guesstimate of NA Seats - 23 January 08
Latest guesstimate of 272 National Assembly Seats of Elections 2008 in Pakistan. The list of candidates is now final. This major changes in this Guesstimate is based on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and Flour + Electricity crisis in Pakistan.
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the PPP should get far more seats than PML-N
yet another show of clear bias towards PML-N by pkpolitics
i would agree with the pmln blue section but cant agree with dako pmlq’s segment.
Guys,
Most visitors here don’t know anything about the current political activities, candidate’s family affiliations, ground realities and history of each constituency. This chart was engineered after extensive feedback from people, media and historical analysis.
You are most welcome to disagree with the above predictions and we would love to hear why you believe that any specific candidate would not be able to win on the specified National Assembly Seat, as detailed in the attached sheet.
We have created a section in Discuss where visitors are debating the atmosphere in their local constituencies and most reports by visitors are also matching our predictions.
Again, please share the reasons with everyone if you believe otherwise based on each constituency, instead of reverse engineering the overall total results.
Discuss NA Constituencies
Thanks for understanding.
Admin
My guess is PPP 30-35%, PMLN 25-30%, PMLQ 10-15%. Just my
hunch feeling after talking to people in pakistan.
PPP is going to come out with clean sweep from sindh and it will be hard for
PMLN or PMLQ to cover it in Punjab.
Almost 60 percent seats in national assembly will be occupied by PML-N and PPP if a free election is held. PML-Q will be lucky enough if it gets 10 percent seats.
There is strong possibility that even sheikh rasheed will lose both his seats.
Actually, Sheikh Rasheed now has as big a chance of winning in these elections as Pakistani football team has of winning the next Football world cup.
Admin,
If possible, could you please conduct a similarly survey showing the vital issues and concerns of the Pakistani public as well. Like, Terrorism, Judiciary, Atta, Economy, Education, Electricity, Gas, Roads etc that might effect these elections and political parties standing regarding these issues.
my guess for next election is
PPP 90 seats 10-
PML n 72 seats 10-
PML q 40 seats 05-
IND 24 seats 02-
MQM 19 seats 01-
MMA 14 seats 02-
other 13 seats 02-
I am not agree with this Guesstimate. PML (N) has no chance of winning such seats. They might have been able if both Nawaz and Shebaz were contesting elections. I think no party will form majority and it will be a joint mixture. PPP may form somewhat a little majority due to BB sympathetic votes.
No way PML-N will have more seats then PPP
PPP 35% ~ 45%
PML-N 20%~30%
@Pakistan, Google, others,
Please educate us which NA seats will PPP win to achieve majority and with rough distribution in all provinces so we can update our tables and charts.
Admin
I am bir surprised that Rao Sikander Iqbal and Raza Hayat Hiraj are in winning section -
I believe Fakhar Iman has good chance to win also
More over both teh Gujrat seats have been given to Chaudhry Shujaat and Chaudhry Wajahat - although Ahmed Mukhtar and Nawabzada Gondal can beat them - but this is if there is no dhandli.
I guess if Gujrat should elect these Chaudhries again - they would be doing the biggest zulm over all of Pakistan
In NA 61 Talagang - Pervez Elahi can still give a surprise - provided the two Tammans come to their senses and do a patch up
My guess….PPP will secure more seats then PML(N)!
@ Admin
I am a regular visitor to this website and i have noticed on many occasions that this site is biased towards PML-N. Your recent survey is yet another prove to that.
Please consult some decent political analysts/people living in pakistan and he/she will shed some light that PPP will get more seats then any other political party in this elections.
I hope you don’t behave like Musharraf and his regime , by imposing your ideas on pkpolitics.com visitors .
Please try to be fair and neutral being the admin of this site.
On another note, i appreciate the time and effort which you are making to run this website.
@Mohammed,
If we are biased, then how would you explain multiple surveys and polls on IRI, BBC and pkpoltics which are all pointing towards the same directions?
It is very easy for you to blame us without doing any home work whatsoever.
I have offered multiple times above to explain which NA seats will other parties win but no one wants to talk about constituencies and only prefer “Hawaee Firing”.
I again ask you to please educate everyone with reference to each constituency of National Assembly and why you believe each party will win that seat and I will gladly update the seat analysis.
Admin
PML-N and PPP can win more seats than these estimates but all depends on how fair chance they get to contest elections.
Keeping in view that PML-N is the only party opposing MUSH from day one, the MUSH hate vote will go to them. Now they have also got some time to strengthen their position through regional adjustments like they have done in case of Nawabzada Mansoor in Muzaffar Garh. PML-N has good vote in urban Punjab and in Hazara area. Even some independent groups have shown support for then in Balochistan. They are also reasonably strong in rural area due to poor policies of Q-League.
The nervousness of Q-League can be seen when Pervaiz Elahi tries to put blame on Shaukat Aziz for wrong policies. Actually they have no courage to blame MUSH so they instead do against the already flown pigeon (S. Aziz).
PPP can win good number of seats but keep in mind that sympathy vote will go in their favour in areas where they are contesting against Q-League only.
PML-N has good vote bank in urban areas due to better literacy and informed public. This time the Cable TV have made people of rural areas as well informed as the urban people so this factor can also dramatically boost PML-N vote. People are better informed this time than any other election the past.
I think Admin is quite right, we guys sitting here in europe and americal inside our drawing rooms keep on giving predictions without having enough knowledge.
I just want to remind all the guys, there is a lot of hate for General Musharraf in pakistan at the moment. PPP was lining up with him, and that could be a reason of getting behind in seats.
@admin: hahah good one! I chuckled at your response!
To all the cry babies.. stop whining and making accusations. You are being provided a forum to correct these numbers here and in the discuss. You have the pdf file. If you think otherwise, download the document, edit it in excel with YOUR REASONS BY CONSTITUENCY and share it with the rest of us. At least I would like to hear a differing view and the reasons why etc.
Believe me, everyone here will appreciate it.. I think the admin will appreciate it too.. So please just don’t spread FUD (Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt/Disinformation) and add to the conversation positively by backing up your argument with reason (and some numbers or anecdotes)
@admin: maybe a csv download would help those who want to amend and generate their own files with their own comment. I understand this might open the door to your comment sections being spammed with everyone’s own interpretations so I’d understand if you don’t allow ppl to upload them.
I partially agree with the guess!!! As i think pml qatil league cant secure this much seats not more than 5% and I also see mma with a bit more. I pray that mqm doesn’t get a single seat.
I think Admin is right if we have free and fair election .Musharraf and his corrupt regime will not afford free and fair election.
@Admin
The guess for NA-15 KARAK is not correct.In this constituency Ayub Khattak of PML(Q), sher nawaz khattak of ANP and Mohsin Ali Khan are nowadays in the winning run.So shams ur Rehman khattak of PML(N) chances for NA-15 are dim
at this moment.
@fahmad,
We are going through our documents about how we reached this conclusion for NA-15. We will publish our response within 12 hours at the following link:
http://pkpolitics.com/discuss/topic/na-15-karak
Please feel free to discuss your reasons at the above link.
Admin
I think there is a big chance that the feb 6 meeting of PML-N will seal the fate of Q league. what do u think admin?
@admin
I think Jhelum will goto Lota league or PPP. I have not checked lately, but I believe District Nazim is from Lota League, and it will make a difference
@Admin
The guess for NA-171 in favour of Q-league in my opinion is not right. I will give some comments for it
1. Qasarani and Buzdar tribes are main tribes in this seat and last time both tribes were supporting Q-league candidate Khawaja Sheeraz Mehmood. But this time Qasarani tribes are with N-league and Q-league is not able to put any candidate on provincial assembly seat in this area.
2. Buzadar tribe is also divided in 3 main groups each group in supporting N-league, Q league, and PPP.
3. Three union councils of Khosa tribe are also in this NA seat. And majority vote will go to N-league candidate because Zulfiqar Khosa is supporting him
4. Three others close relative of Khawaja Sheeraz are also contesting election and there vote will divided and majority vote of Khawaja group will go to Khawaja Ghulam Nizam.
So in my opinion Q-league candidate has only 5-10% chance in this seat.
Main contest is between Khawaj Nizam and N-league candidate Meer Badshah Qasarani.
the magic number for all the anti mush parties is arround 255 (including women & minorities). Since they have already 40 seats in senate, a total of 295 will b enough for impeachment. This number is a far cry though. However if they are close to this number, some q league senators will be ready to support them.
For mush the majic number is just 80.
on the condition of the fair and free election
PPP will get more than half of the seats.
But about the above chart PMLQ will get more because it is team of establishment.
PMLN will get also seats because it is also a team of establishment.
I Think PML(N) will secure more seats than ppp.
but i do agree with my other coleague who who announced sheikh Rasheed as
defeated candidate.
Lota like him shouldn’t be part of assembly.
PML(Q) is no political party so i don’t think it’ ll be able to secure any significant nos of seats.
@Humaira,
I think PPP never got more than 50% in last 30 years, from ZAB till BBs period. What makes you think they will do magic this time?
We know Nawaz has swiped in the past with 2/3rd even without a coalition.
i think pml(n) should win more seats than any other party,theres no point to give votes to q league or ppp,as zardari is using the same cards as choudarys have been playing,Nawaz sharif is the only hope of pakistan,but the problem is due to illetracy and lack of education people of pakistan doesnt know whats good for them or what they should go for,what is their destination.this is the biggest problem.
I dont think PML N will get more than 40 seats in the National Assembly this time around. The prediction for PPP seems ok and PML Q (although we all dont want it ) might get quite more seats than predicted at this forum.
the predictions from the admin in my opinion are tilted towards nawaz league. the admin has given the seats to nawaz league even those where they would be at third position.q league are given only the seats which every body know they will win except one or two. but every seat where chance of ppp N league and Q league is equal is given to N league. i will give list here only from punjab where chances for ppp Q league and N league or equal or who holds better position better position.
I think Pml-N wont get more than 40-50 seats in NA but i agree with ADMIN that rather than saying them biased if somebody dont agree with this estimate then you should point out some reasons specially about your own constituency.
I belong to NA 122 and i know PML-N candidate will win from there as it was and still is strong hold of Nawaz group so i think everybody should be knowing something about they own constituency so plz share with us.
@admin
i am giving here a list from punjab where other candidates will win . i will ´write who have e qual chance or who is dominating and also will give u the prediction of admin. i can disscuss every seat which i mentioned here with arguments. i do not support any party but i am following elections from 1988.
seats chances admin prdiction
Na 49 q-pp pp
NA 50 pp-N N
NA 53 pp-N-q N
NA 55 PP-Q-N N
NA 56 PP-Q-N N
NA 57 I(Q)-N N
NA 58 Q -N N
NA 60 Q-N N
NA 61 Q N
NA 62 Q N
NA 64 Q-N N
NA 65 Q-PP PP
NA 66 PP-N N
NA 69 Q-I I
NA 73 I-N N
NA 74 I-N N
NA 75 PP-Q PP
NA 76 PP-Q-N N
NA 82 JUP(N)-Q N
NA 83 Q-N-PP N
NA 87 Q-PP PP
NA 88 Q-PP PP
NA 91 Q-PP PP
NA 93 PP-N-Q PP
NA 94 PP-N-Q N
NA 98 PP-N-Q PP
NA 101 PP-N-Q Q
NA 102 Q-N N
NA 103 Q-N N
NA 106 PP-Q PP
NA 107 N-Q N
NA 108 Q-N-PP N
NA 109 PP-Q PP
NA 111 Q-PP-N N
NA 114 Q-PP-N N
NA 117 Q-N N
NA 124 N-Q-P N
NA 127 N-Q N
NA 128 PP-N-Q N
NA 130 PP-Q PP
NA 131 PP N
NA 133 Q-N N
NA 134 Q-N N
NA 136 PP-N-Q PP
NA 140 PP-N-Q N
NA 141 Q-N N
NA 142 Q-N N
NA 149 PP-N-Q N
NA 150 PP-N-Q N
NA 157 N-Q-PP N
NA 158 N-PP-Q PP
NA 159 PP-Q PP
NA 160 PP-N-Q N
NA 161 PP-Q PP
NA 163 PP-Q PP
NA 173 Q-N N
NA 177 PP-Q PP
NA 178 Q-I I
Na 191 PP-Q PP
Na 193 PP-N-Q N
Na 196 PP-N-Q N
Na 197 PP-Q PP
on these 62 seats admin has given to
N league=40
pp=19
Q league=1
if only consider chances q league have on
56
N league on 41
and pp on 40
even if you distribute equally them each party will get 20
i wonder how will N league will get about 80 seats as admin predicted
@argbpk,
What exactly do you mean by “dividing equally”? We have conducted detailed analysis as in the attached sheet and given weights to each candidate in each constituency, with the winner having 100 weight. The weight difference between winning candidate and runner up shows how tough competition will be between them and by what margin the winner is expected to win.
With the list you mentioned above, can you please also predict the weights for candidates of each party. Please don’t say “50/50″.
Admin
@admin
brother i sa the whole list . and felt evey seat where N league has fair chance you have alloted this seat to N league.
as your wish i will give weightage to each candidate according to informations i have.
I. more or less, agree with the Administration’s estimate of NA seats. But only, if the elections are held on time, and are free, fair and transparent, I sincerely believe that the two major parties; PPP and PML-N will be able to garnish most of the seats in the NA. PPP may get 70 to 80, and PML-N may get 80 to 85 seats. If that happen then the PPP and PML-N shall be able to form a functioning govrnment, which I hope will be able to solve all the problems facing Pakistan.
I would like to thank admin. for providing us current, uptodate and crucial informations concerning Pakistan and It’s awam.
I would like to appeal to some of you, who are abrupt to criticise and accuse the Admin, for being biased and impartial. That is not true. Of course you can disagree, but the game of accusations with out any facts is not appreciated. If you disagree with Admin. then give the reasons that are based on facts and feel free to provide us with your views. So please refrain from this kind of mud slinging.
Pakistan and It’s Awam are going through a very difficult time. We are faced with many serious challenges and issues that concern Pakistan and it’s people. Pakistan is at a dangerous crossing, and it is our duty and resposibility to save Pakistan.
No doubt that we have monumental task ahead of us, but With the help of Allmighty Allah, together and united, we can overcome all the hurdles and Ishallah will be vitorious.
Let us be serious.
here some of the seats where i think what the chances are.
Na 49 q(55)-pp(45)
NA 50 pp(50)-N(50)
NA 53 pp(45)-N(40)-q(55)
NA 55 PP(40)-Q(50)-N(50)
NA 56 PP(40)-Q(50)-N(50)
NA 57 I(Q)(60)-N(40)
NA 58 Q(60) -N(40)
NA 60 Q(45)-N(55)
NA 61 Q(70)
NA 62 Q(70)
NA 64 Q(50)-N(50)
i think this is the trend.i am not against the admin or anybody.i visit this site just to see the situation in the country when i get time. i got feeling that N league can not get two many seat in these elections . but i have no problem even they get
150 seats.
in my view all the leaders are not sincere including pp,n,q,mma etc.they all want power.
May God save pakistan
I think everyone is forgetting that in the last election with all the rigging PPP had the most votes than any other party.
I don’t mind if any opposition party wins… I would love to see Chaudhries and Co losing the elections and Mush Baighairat and his shameless supporters leave us alone.
@Admin
Thanks for your hard work.
if pakistan was a “democracy” there would be no favour for nawaz and ppp vote only because of musharaf’s tenure! instead of swaping old criminal for new one ! (allthough i personly dont beleive musharaf is the criminal) a paarty that has vision and a leader with vision and charisma should be favour by the nation rather we are in a cycle of love and hate which only gives 2 days of love and the rest days are spent hating again! this cycle takes 20 years to take a full turn for instance late 50s ayub khan military rule - late 70s next military rule- late 90s next military rule! … 10 years for the military and 10 for the corrupt politicians thats it! ? if there is anything wrong in this plz tel me
I think this is a wishstimate that does not show the real situation. PPP is much stronger after BB’s shahadat. PML-Q does not have any chance without rigging. PML-N can do well in urban areas and rest of places will divide only anti-PPP vote. PPP did much better than 80 seats in all previous elections even in last ones when PML-N was not there and PPP had to face a lot of state-sponsored propaganda and rigging.
Most likely this wishstimate is Mush’s dream outcome.
everybody, pls keep in mind the “original plan” for next 5 years from washington d.c. i dont see any of the contesting parties wud be able to gain decisive position in the upcoming elections. as long as mushi is in good-books with “bosses” (i beleive he still is) there wont be any challenging situtation to jeopardize mushi’s next five years, and by challenging situation i mean,
1. no party wud get decisive position.
2. even though both PPP/PML(N) are likely to top the elections, they wont be able to form a coalition in NA to do the necessary constitutional ammendment to oust mushi, and if they decide to to work on that anyways, i do expect formation of more “pressure” groups out of these leading parties.
look, the bottom line is, mushi is here to stay, atleast for his next term. furthermore, my analysis is based on given circumstances and info, it might be wrong and i do welcome anybody who wud like to comment. thx.
No constitutional amendment is needed to oust mush. Its infact mush himself who needs a constitutional amendment to get recognition of hus Nov. 03 action.
Without this amendment, the judiciary stands restored at its Nov. 02 position and then the presidential elections will ne held after the decision of supreme court on the case pending at that time.
@argbpk
1-Islamabad to Q league, even after Lal masjid?
2-NA 53 goes to Q league & Ch Nisar at no. 3?
3 - seems more than optimistic about Sh Rashid
4- Tammans & all other candidates have 30% chance of winning as against 70% for Q?
5- In Jhelum Raja afzal seems too weak 2 u . Are’t u underestimating him?
& still u say u r not supporting ny party. strange
@khizarkyz
1-in islamaabad there are two seats 48 and 49. NA 48 will go to N league because mian aslam is not contesting.also this contains area of educated people who hates mush etc. NA 49 contains mostly rural area and here nayyar bukhari or khokhar will win.regarding lal masjid what do you think who supported this action first (is not that BB(ppp)).the people who will give sympthy votes due to lal masjid will not vote for ppp it is sure. N league candidate will get these vote but his overall position is weak here due to baradery system.
2-ch. nisar is contesting on NA 52 and NA 53.he will definitly win NA52. but on NA53 his position is weak. waitand see.
3-i am not optimistic about shaikh rashid but he has vote bank. i know lot of people are against him this time. but his marjin of winning in last electons is high.people who say last time he won due to nawaz sharif must realise zafer ali shah(a main N league löeader was contesting against him last time and he got less than one third of votes tha shakha).i’
4-mumtaz tamman is supportin pervaiz ilahi this time. last time he supported faiz malik.mumtaz is a main leader from chakwal.uncle of faiz.
5-in jehlem ch on NA 62 ch shahbaz will win from raja safdar (check last election results) and i know ch. shahbaz will lose to raja asad from NA 63.(we can discuss in detail these seats in respective constuencies)
facts are facts wait and see until 18 feb
@argbpk
Brother please dont forget that the candidate of Q league you metioned are in good position have the Q league ticket. This ticket will reduce there vote atleast 10-15 thousand in every NA seat. And if luckly or unluckly they will paste the picture of our beloved PRESIDENT in there posters and banners, then they have no chance to win atleast in these elections.
@ humayun
Even the q-league candidates are not that stupid to use mush’s pics.
If anything these q-leaguers are trying to distancethemselves from mush as much as possible. Nobody wants dead weight.
@Adonis
Brother, the same I want to say. The Q-league tickect is liability for their candidates, these are not my words, Sheikho of Pindi, Qasori of Qasor and many others q-league leaders and candidates have this opinion about their tickect. some candidates have already return their tickect and some will do the same in near future. But here I see some people still thinking that NIKA chuhdry will be the next PM of Pakistan and Q-league will win at least 80 seats. When a party ticket is liability for their candidates, then how this party will win election, this I cant understand. This is still a big question for me and for whole Paksitan.
Now I think the blame game from Qota league has been started. Today I also saw in newspapers that Ghalat Biani ( Durrani ) of Q league balming PPP for rigging in next election. Why these qota league supporters consider village area prople so stupied that they will vote for Q-league. I laso belong to village and remote area of D.G. Khan and in my area people also hate Q-league like in all over Pakistan. So I request all Shehri Babu type people, please please dont blame us that we pandoo are q league supporters. We pandoo can also think and can make good decision, and we will do this again in next election.
@humayun_dgk,
Here is how we reached our prediction for NA-171. Please share if you believe it is not correct and we will update our chart.
http://pkpolitics.com/discuss/topic/na-171-dg-khan-i
Admin
@fahmad,
Here is how we reached our prediction for NA-15. Please share if you believe it is not correct and we will update our chart.
http://pkpolitics.com/discuss/topic/na-15-karak
Admin
NA-144 Okara details added below.
http://pkpolitics.com/discuss/topic/na-144-okara-ii
@GM
Dear Brother, I aslo belong to this area. Now I explain why I say that PML-Q has no chance to win in this election.
1. In PP-240 the election is one sided in favor of PML-N becuase PML -Q has no candidate there.
2. In PP-241 PML-N canidate is also Buzadar and he has considerable vote bank in his area.
3. PP-242 is not whole included in this NA-171 seat only three union consils of Khosa tribe are included in this NA-171. Remaining union counciles are in NA-273.Actullay this was done by Farooq Leghari to divide the Khosa vote in 3 NA seats.
4. The main draw back of Q-candidate is the division of Khawaja vote. Acutally Sajada Nasheen of Taunsa is cousine of Khawaja Nizam and his brother is on Provincial Assembly seat. So also most all vote of Khwaja follwers will go to Khawaja Nizam , and the rest few percent vote will be divided in remaining three Khawjas. So Q-league has no chance of more than 5% to win this election.
Before Assembly session in General Elections.
PPP = 40%
PMLN = 30%
PMLQ = 20%
Rest of Parties = 10%
—————
After Assembly session
PPP = 35%
PMLN = 10%
PMLQ = 47%
Rest of Parties = 8%
Therefore PMLQ will form Government with Rest of the parties.
———————
Just my opinion.
PML - Q purposely injected few candidates to win the seas and then change the floor afterwards.
PMLN is standing on Anti-Musharaf slogan.Once it finishes,they will be more even 30% seats.
I do predict Imran will replace as a second major party after this election and there could be a possibilty of PPP problems too.There are many chances that PPP will survive this election.Problems for PPP will start after one election.
Government,as usual, wants Zardari to come into the government for one year then label him as corrupt man again and this way party will not survive.This was the conspiracy against PPP.Zardari made a good decision by rejecting this offer.
Musharaff getting his ass whopped by a CNN reporte:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_LVsNDyMgk
@Adonis
can u explain how a constitutional ammendement is not needed to oust mush? he has already implemented and altered the constituional thus and by an ammendement is needed to change it back lolll
@Admin
I appreciate ur hard work and good analysis but As i belong to NA-15 KARAK.
so I have shared my views and analysis at discuusion forum.
@fahmad,
Thanks for your comments. I (admin) is the technical guy who manage the site and assist GM in publishing his analysis.
GM has put huge efforts in analyzing each constituency and he deserves all the credit. He also updates the sheet almost on weekly basis and the above analysis is the 6th version that we have released since we started it.
Your comments would be a great value for him since it is your local constituency and GM is also busy with other 271 constituencies than yours.
He will be online later tonight and reply under NA-15 topic.
Thanks for appreciation!
Admin
@GM
ur comments. In Kohat Javed Ibrahim Paracha used to be very strong: his personal vote was hug. Malik assad was no match for him. what has happened over the past few years?
@econfused
Brother, as far as Jhelum-PD Khan seat is concerened,PLM-Q will take this becuase of Dist. Nazim personal attention and a lot work.Jhelum-City will not go to PML-Q.There is very tough competetion between PPP and PML-N,So PMLQ is out of question unless they rigg the election.
Regards,
Munir
@GM and Admin
Thanks for all the information you people are putting. I just want to request GM or any body else in this forum to put some light that if the above analysis gets true on Feb 18th, then who and who will make a colliation government.
@argbpk
Please give me your accurate prediction about my constituency NA 101. and if you get some time please read my analysis on the seat first.
Thanx
If what is being said in list is true to 100% their would be no election on Feb 18th. General Mush as already announced the result. It would be hung parlaiment that mean PMLQ little less than majority. PMLN and PPP combined would equal number of seat to PMLQ. Than lota group would be formed to elect PMLQ PM imported
Senerio 1.Outside Parlaiment PPP leaders and worker arrested and put in jail. PMLN lead leave country. ANP and JUI would be friendly opposition with some PMLN and PPP lotas.
Senerio 2. Outside Parlaiment, PPP and PMLN joint civil society for sit in front of GHQ Rawalpindi starting Feb 19th. would talk seven to ten days to topple General Musharaf and junta. Hopfully General Kayani does not take over and some one is made President with promise for fresh election in ninety days.
Senerio 1 total disaster for Pakistan, Senerio 2 total disaster for Pakistan.
Shahid Kinnare
901-370-5779
@Admin
NA-178 I don’t agree to your prediction.
Nawbzada Masor & Nawabzada Iftikhar are Both brother, They are contesting against each other.Both of them has bad personal credibility in that constituency. However, Nawabzada Iftikhar has better chance because of PML-Q.
Majority of Nazims are with Q leaugue and the system of voting thier is totally WADERA base. So they will get blind vote for Q-leaugue. Also, PPP has better edge than Nawabzada mansoor. The only way Nawabzada mansoor can win is if PPP stand with PDP. I know these all candidates and my prediction is 100% right. After 18 th Feb you will see the result.
I personally belong to PTI.
May Allah Bless Pakstan!!!!
@Admin, why no report on london protest no video. Are you also under censor.
Shahid Kinnare
I Agree with the graph showing above, but I still think that PML-N will take more seats and Q will go further more down.
Guys there is no need wasting time on these estimtes - becuase the goverment has already planned for a large scale rigging - called computerized rigging - and after PPP the party which is doing to come second would be PMLQ - it has already been planned.
You guys are dealing with this shamless guy Musharraf who has no respect for anyone - not even for his military colleagues
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/story/2008/01/080125_ex_army_reaction_zs.shtml
and he would do anything to get away with. Come on try to understand - the guy who goes around blaming BB herself for being assassinated, who killed the judiciary, who is not ready to suspend local bodies nazims (after all parties had only demanded suspension and heaven would not have fallen if it been for just two months) - but because NIYAT OF MUSHARRAF IS NOT GOOD so this guy would do anything to get away with.
Now its upto us as a nation what do we do in this situation. Still we are determined to negogaite with him. He is a manipulator of the worst kind and he only negogiates for himself - either to buy time or to make his enemy weak and then strikes - he has learnt this from Bush - the way they attacked Iraq after making sure it has no weapons at all -
There is only one way to deal with this man - Article 6 - thats all.
Admin you would be surprised on 18 Feb when teh results would come - PMLQ would sweep the elections through computerised rigging - that is all already been planned. So everyone should be prepared for post election movement.
@c hussain
that’s aftab iqbal’s story or u have some other source?
BTW u have made a habit of wrting ‘the’ as ‘teh’ and I always take it for tehsil.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/story/2008/01/080126_imran_mush_riging_as.shtml
RIGGING IN THESE ELECTIONS WOULD BE
MOTHER OF ALL RIGGING IN THE PAST
@ fasih_ul_yahya
No constitutional amendment is needed to oust musharraf because his ascension to presidency is unconstitutional. Although he claims that his actions of Nov. 03 are now part of constitution, things are not as simple. If just an army chief’s proclamation had been enough to change constitution, then Zia-ul Haq in 1985 and Parvez Musharraf in 2002 would not have needed assembly’s approval for their constitutional amendments. For musharraf in 2002, even the supreme court had allowed him to amend constitution but still he needed assembly’s approval in the form of 17th amendment as supreme court itself cannot amend constitution.
This time, the major problem for musharraf is that supreme court had itself declared the announcement of martial law on Nov. 03 as illegal before the judges were arrested. So the rhetoric of the regime that mush’s actions have now become a part of constuitution is simply rhetoric. This may trick a few gullible minds but everyone else knows that he’ll need a constitutional cover for his actions. So the need of a two third majority is for him to stay in power, not for his removal.
Posession is nine tenths of law. So the de facto SC is the dogra SC which is always in mush’s pocket. the only chance, though remote, to remove him is impeachment which requires two 3rd majority in parliament (SC Senate) which amounts to 295 seats. The opposition has just arround 40 seats in Senate that too when u widen the canvass & include likes of JUI too in the opposition.
As far as kiyani is concerned, u wd have to wait for the march 2008 promotions/postings in the army which would definitely reveal his mind: & obviously he will be strong only after the said date.
Parliament or majlis-e-shoora is NA Senate
Posession may be nine tenth of practical control but it has no validity in law. Mush had similar posession in 2002. He was even more powerful then becuz he was army chief. Still he had to go to the parliament to get validation for his three year rule. How this time is different?
The regime is saying that it does not need parliamentary validation becuz it knows there is no chance of getting two third support. Constitution cannot be amended by anybody’s wishes. All extra-constitutional or unconstitutional steps need to be validated by the parliament otherwise these stand repealed.
Lets say that the new parliament does not validate mush’s Nov. 03 action. Then mush will eiother have to resign or dismiss the assembly. Without the support of army, he would not be able to dismiss the assembly . The army would be less inclined to go against teh will of people for teh sake of a retired general as the new chief will have nothing to gain from it. If mush does get army’s support and dismisses assembly, it would be another martial law making it impossible for his foreign benefactors to continue supporting him. So basically, mush will be between devil and the deep blue sea after the elections, no matter who wins.
Keeping all this in mind, the wise thing to do for msuh would be to stay permanently in istanbul at the end of his present european sojourn. But then a wise act and mush are as far apart as sahara desert and snowfall.
Of course Parliament or Majlis e Shura includes both NA and senate and a two third majority in both is needed to pass a constitutional amendment. Half of senate will also be up for elections later this year..
For impeachment its different: two 3rd vote in joint setting of the parliament.
As long as musharraf is there it’s a classic “murghi pehle/anda pehle” problem. if there is a controversy who will decide/interpret: obviously SC & at the moment it’s Dogra SC.
Musharraf would not go quietly and Imran Khan is mistaken that if Musharraf is offered an exit strategy he would abide by it - Musharraf is a typical villian of English and indian films who comes back again and again even when everyone thinks he is killed
Same with Musharraf. There is only one way to get rid of this guy and I am sorry to say it would be nothing but a violent end - he doenst care the least for the country and he has no love for this country at all - he can do anything to destroy this country - only if he survives.
So dont be under this impression that he would let the Assembly impeach him. The way he packed up the Supreme Court he would do the same with Assembly. If anyone has any illusion read carefully the Restoration of Constution Order when he restored it after 3rd Nov Emergency. In that he clearly included a clause that if at later stage there is any problem legally he has the right to amend it. So basically this crazy guy has given himself the right of amendment of Consitution as opposed ot the Parliament. Even the Parliament would not be able to do anything in this case.
Some people argue that he was not that aggressive in 2002 - so how come he has become that aggressive now - at that time his colleauges in army where of similar ranks and he had to listen to them - now they are all very very junior and he gives the least about them - he knows he has appointed all his closest people in key positions and if Gen Kiyani even thinks of a coup against him he would move first and fire him and get him court martialed. He has destroyed Constitution, parliament and judiciary and now is the turn of army. Thats why in army guys are very care as currently they are not sure whom to trust and not to trust and this is what Musharraf is trying to captitalize on -
The elections would be farce and rigged - no doubt about that - the only good about such an ouctome would be that then Musharraf would have no further cards to play to put down the agitation.
But one thing is for sure AS THEY SAY LATOON KAY BHOOT BATOON SAY NAHI MANTAY - guys this guy would have to be dragged out of President house screaming at top of his voice and should be hanged under Article 6. As I have said earlier on many times - if the army does that - they cannot be tried under this article at all becuas they would be just following teh last decision of the Supreme Court when it was disbanded on Nov 3 - so they have legal protection to do so.
@chussain
‘Musharraf is a typical villian of English and indian films who comes back again and again even when everyone thinks he is killed.’
True but Musharaf see himself as Maula jatt, His motto is
jo koi bole naa sarkar
o gandaase naal paar
General Musharraf is gone what next?
Totally agree with U Kinnare what will happen if Musharraf goes out n Nawaz or PPP came in, do u expect any change, i am sure things will be more disastrous….
@ nam
r u the same guy who had always prasied MQM and bashing agisnt PPP and PMLN?
can u openly tell r u MQM supporter? i think after that it will be easy to respond to ur comments.
Guess is always an estimation .True ground condition is;
_ MQM will win their seats mostly from Karachi and other mohajir, majority areas without any rigging . PML(Q) will be rewarded/ reciprogated(INSHAALLAH) for their effort in electing Musharaf as prsident ,in Army Uniform .All others are wasting their time,energy and money etc.
A dictator is holding ELECTIONS for true Democracy ! after setting Judiciary under PCO, Media and army in his favour . Is it true?Who will be benefitted?
2 new episodes of Live with Talat added.
Admin
Altaf Bhai of laloo khat meet Musharraf Bhai of GHQ in london. The News.
There is usually a great argument by some people who say IF MUSHARRAF GOES WHAT NEXT.
This is kind of a scare tactics used by people and in fact even by Musharraf in his European tours to the west.
Here is a picture - what happens if he exits
1. Chief Justice Iftikhar and entire judiciary is restored - so that side is covered
2. Gen Kiyani is already COAS so there is no chance of choas in the army with Musharraf’s exit
3. Now on political side - well if we have fair and free elections and whoever comes and NA elects that person as Prime Minister should be allowed to govern. After all he would not be the only person governing - he would have a Parliament overseeing his actions and also there would be a President who can be elected with a combined decision of goverment and opposition like it happens in India.
4. So lets say for example that the Prime Minister goes crazy as some people are tyring to put this way esp with Musharraf exit and are repeatedly try to say that heavens would fall - believe me even if he goes crazy nothing would happen bevcause there would still be parliament, presidency, army, judiciary watching over him and he would have to take decision collectively. Even if worst comes worst it would be still be a better decision than Musharraf and above all the minion advisors from the West would stop coming to Pakistan and order us to do things and hurt us and our self respect.
THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS RULE OF LAW. And it should start from TOP TO BOTTOM and not vice versa
The first action after parliament is elected by free and fair elections is election of President after Musharraf is gone and it should be with a consensus. Article 5B should be done away with it or should be further diluted so that although it is there as a safety valve for a very very crazy prime minister but at the same time it also cannot be used recklessly by a crazy president.
So see guys even if Musharraf goes - we would still be breathing and I can assure you that we would be far better off then this scourge.
You might have seen, read and heard about the Republic day being celebrated in India. French President is gracing the occasion there and India is showing off and that has happenend because with its all its inner weaknesses India did not let democracy go and there is RULE OF LAW there with strong Supreme Court, independent Election Commission and above all a strong investigative agency which is independent CBI.
So even if we cannot follow the West we can at least follow India. Musharraf claims that it took West centuries to build the democracy and rule of law forgetting conveniently that India was given independence AFTER PAKISTAN (one day after) and in those sixty years the democracy is as good as that in UK and America - rather even better clearly showing that he is nothing but telling lies and is trying to perpetuate his rule.
@ManDark
Thanks, BB charming like always, You cannot miss those tears for a father from a
daughter. BB did not know how to walk with ‘fauji Bandars’ that was her gravest
mistake.
my guess is pml n 40%
pp 35% mqm 7%
pmlq 2%
mma 6%
anp 3%
misc 7%
if its free election but i dont think so it will be free
Teachers caught red handed while stamping postal ballots:
http://daily.urdupoint.com/Live-News.php?news_id=55858&featured=1&cat_id=2
@Paf123
since 1993 PML-N is considered anti-establishment party.
As far as PPP is concerned I think it will secure about
50 seats from Punjab
35 sears from Sindh
10 seats from NWFP
and none from Balochistan.
so, this gives PPP about 90 seats in the NA. Which will be 1/3rd of the seats!
If PPP does manage to get 1/3rd seats, then with PML(N) it can stop Mush’s way as he won’t get 1/3rd support for validation of his Nov. 03 actions.
In that case, I hope PPP does not become anoteher Fazlur Rehman by compromising with mush.
2/3rd support needed by mush
Ch mubasshar hussain, a cousin of chaudhries, join PML-N. Will anybody throw some light? I myself see it with a jaundiced eye.
I dunt understand how admin has reached to the 80 seats for PML N. According to my work out, it has chances to secure about
41 seats from Punjab
None from Sindh
04 from NWFP and
01 from Balochista.
That gives about 50 seats to the PML N.
I too hope from PPP that it wont act like MMA! and do the right thing for the country.
@GM & Admin
About the individual constituency pages. Please! try to stack the entries so that one views the last entries first in case of multiple pages.
@pkelections
Interesting. u revised ur Q estimate barely one day after PML-Q highups revised it to 80 from 120. 4 u Q is still winning.
@ All Bro and sis,
The same Elite class will win the election this time as well, no matter from any party. This time they have spent far more money then previous election campaigns. Why you guys do not understand a simple logic. Why are these people spending so much on there election campaigns? What will they do if get elected? Are they spending this huge sum of money for the betterment of the people of Pakistan? Isn’t it like a business investment? Aren’t they doing this only for their personal interests? Aren’t they doing this to become law givers?
That’s why I called democracy as Elitocracy and by the way this phenomena is not only here in Pakistan rather it is there where ever this system of Elitocracy is present.
We should replace this corrupt system with a khilafah system. Which is now only a matter of time by the will of Allah (swt).
Regards
PML Q wont even win a single seat no matter what they do.
@pkelections
brother at your website you showed that at NA-171 PML-Q is in solid position. Can you please explain, how Q-league is in solid position, when they are not in the position even put their candidate in PP-140 which comes under this NA-171. And for your information, in the last local bodies election, our ex-MNA supported candidate could not win the UC election is his home city. when ex-MNA used his all power and his candidate lost with lead of 1268 votes. So the MNA, who could not win his home UC, how he will win the next election. And I can bet with you that in next election, he will again lose in his home UC with atleat 1500 votes. Its realy strange that you put him in solid position. I think you just cut and past from your last predictions. For detail information please visit this link.
http://pkpolitics.com/discuss/topic/na-171-dg-khan-i
so please review at least for this seat in particular, and all other seats in general.
very important & need 2 b dicussed:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=12673
Estalishment plan
PPP 72
Q 65
PMLN 45
LOOK THE RESULTS ARE ALREADY OUT. SHAME ON ESTABLISHMENT.
msh wants hung parliament.
DOWN WITH ESTABLISHMENT
Yes this 75 65 40 news is eveywhere be it Aftb Iqbal’ column or 3rd class eveningers like Naya Akhbar. Strangely everyone is saying thats their guess.
Saleh zafar of jang also quoted influencial govt officers regarding this paln of establishment.
No matter what eastablishment wish people with majority wil change all DHANDLLI plans.
shameful plan of establishment
Jang has become lota akhbar as well.
No columist of substance. People like naji are in jang.
lOOK AT THREATS FROM NISAR MEMON TO EX SERVICES MEN AND MEDIA TODAY.
This report by Saleh Zafar (of Jang group) has some miscalculation of seats, i think, as it says
PPP 75
PMLQ 65
PMLN 40
MQM 19
Indepednent and miscellaneous parties 40
so it makes a total of 239
so where are the remaing 33 seats ( 272 - 239)
they actually did not count these 33 seats of PMLN to show a figure like 40.
so if these are included, then as per this report (whatever the source is ) PMLN seats will be 73.
this report shows about 10 additional seats for PMLQ , and 10 less in turn for PPP PMLN, if we comapre with pkpolitics guestimate.
@ GM
Thanks for the explanation.I have no illusion about PMLN seats.
but when sheeda talli talks abou importance of fazlu disel in future.
No estimate gives fazlu disel more than 15 - 20 seats.
This incomptent jurnail is bent on doing massive dhandli.
Jang yesterday not even mentioned about taxila jalsa. And any small statement of PE , AH will be published in main page.
Party PML(N) PPPP MMA PML Q ANP MQM
Seats 37 101 29 14 2 16
Close Contest 29 49 18 88 11 4
source http://pakelectionsonline.org
The site
http://pakelectionsonline.org
is based on bull shit prediction logic…
Just Check the prediction system result for NA 55 and laugh..
BB rightly said that the fair elections will be where the outcome is PPP and PMLN as the top two parties (off course far away from what Q league can even think).
BUT DHAANDLEE….
BB died…
NS paper rejected…
SO Mush is right to say that there is no Dhandlee ….
Dhabdlee ki auqaathe kia hai
there is infact no word for what is going on…
@Atif
I agree with u. The problem is with their bizzare method and not their intentions I think. Otherwise a lot of hardwork has been especially in the presentation of the site.
@ GM
I agree with most of your predictions. But either me or you are not estimating q league seats correctly. Based on constituency wise analysis of punjab, I have estimated 71 seats for PML(N) almost th same as you did. But unlike you I have estimated 53 seats for PPP and only 16 for Q league.
Lets see who is proved correct on February 18.
I have updated the elections prediction at http://www.pkelections.com
PPP and PML-Q still too close to call in the final tally
@pkelections
Nice! from the whole hazara division u r giving only one seat to PML-N? still it manages to get 51 seats.
PLesae give the same estimate for Provincial Assembilies also. It will be a favour to Nation.
Thanks a Lot for giving a scale for rigging measurement.
IMPORTANT
Javed Paracha of PML-N is out of the race due to illness.
8 to go .. Every thing would be clear then.. Who gets more.. I am just praying for PML (N)
I think PML(N) should and will won the elections.
due to two reasons:
1— thier strict stance against present government , in judiciary issue etc.
2— due wrong policies of present government mush and q league.
3— PPPP cannot defeat PML(N) due to thier probable deal with Mush government.
that creates confusion in the mind of general people
that they may go along mush and do the same thing
what is happening for last 7 years in the form of Q league
I want to get rid of present government due
corruption.
judiciary issue
inflation
terrorism
and
energy crisis
they created
and I think only PML(N) can save us …… atleast from this government (Qasaaiii)
Amir Mateen of DAWN’s thoughts about PPP’s electoral chances:
http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/07/top21.htm
and PMLN’s
http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/09/top10.htm
confused????
NA 148 rai mansab PMLQ against hashmi and qureshi
NA 137 rai mansab PMLN
@ khizarkyz
both r different persons……….i mean different Rai MansabS..
In Karachi , total registered voters where 4,744,013 in 2002, but in 2008 the count increased to 6,682,145 which is a 40.85% increase. Any ideas how this will impact the results in karachi if at all?
Source:http://pakelectionsonline.org/web/blog/interesting-data-about-the-registered-voters
In a latest survey by conservative (means pro-Bush & Mush) US organization ‘Terror Free Tomorrow’ shows 36.7 percent supported the PPP, 25.3 percent favoured the PML-N, and only 12 percent backed the PML-Q.
http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=20082\11\story_11-2-2008_pg1_1
I am not sure how come this survey shows so much low numbers for PPP?
And today’s IRI survey puts mush’s support at 16%
@GM
I’ve counterchecked on ECP site & pakelectionsonline is absolutely righ. put up this issue for discussion on frontpage.
The IRI survey is very interesting and sort of negates all the predictions on different websites, including pkpolitics.com . At the same time, it may not be accurate for the Feb 18 polls because the Pakistani election system is on the concept of “first past the post” and again is constituency based. There are no general electoral trends except for cities and seats are won on the individual dynamics of each constituency. But I would invite everybody to read the results of the survey.
http://www.iri.org/mena/pakistan/2008-02-11-pakistan.asp
I would also like to comment on the views expressed on some seats in the Punjab, including Hafizabad.
According to my information, Mehdi Bhatti group (PML-Q) is facing a rout at the hands of Afzal Tarar group (PML-N). I agree with the prediction of pk politics and also pkelections.com . Again, local dynamics and no reflection of any national trend.
@ ADMIN
Shed some thoughts on the below survey.
http://thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=12899
It is not HAWAEE FIRING, infact your survey looks like one.
You should be better at taking the criticism and accept the fact that this site is pro PML (N).
@M Naeem Munir,
As stated above, please shed some light “which NA seats” will each party win and why do you believe they will win and we will happily update the sheet.
Admin
Just to let all know i have updated the estimates of the seats at http://www.pkelections.com
all the ppp lovers
you are already gettin the blinks from your top so called leaders
Senator latif khosa taking part in an oath ceremony
Ahsan bhoon being justice of the lahore high court
this is exactly wt ppp goin to do after elections with aim that lets look forward now
no wonder you are gettin the impression of this site pkpolitics being pro nawaz sharif
utmost perfect admin
this is written on the wall ppp and pml-q forming a coalition
ppp lovers need to open their eyes before its too late
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/story/2008/02/080211_mush_support_ra.shtml
http://jang.com.pk/jang/feb2008-daily/12-02-2008/col3.htm
A really thought provoking column and also the book by the biggest socialist journalist noam chomsky
the situation depicted is exactly wts happening in pakistan right now
I personally never believed IRI survey . Look at its surveys of the last year or so, & u will get a clear message: its just a wish list of neocons. In the not very fdistant past, on at least two occasions, Shaukat aziz was one of the most popular leaders. For me They have an agenda.
Yes, all these foreign pollsters have an agenda. Its a pity that the regime does not allow local media to conduct opinion polls.
Furthermore, opinion polling as done by IRI is fraught with inaccuracies because many people do not feel secure in speaking their minds to the pollsters. Also, it is stragnge that this survey finds that 90% of people will vote or are thinking about voting. Given the voting rate in past elections, this is highly unlikely.
Additionally, it is not clear whether the sample was equally distributed or skewed towards any certain geographic location. Till that is clearly specified, results of such surveys will have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/story/2008/02/080211_pre_poll_rigging.shtml
Please refer to the link here:
Karachi Voters. I am just wondering how this is possible. Anybody from Karachi who can comment on this.
@to all those in pakistan
please do come out & vote on 18 feb. this is the only way to dilute rigging. it does’t matter which party u vote for. special allusion is being made to APDM sympathisers.
Yes.
All APDM supporters: Please come out and vote for those who have pledged to restore judiciary. Otherwise, your boycott will be infact a vote for mush and Q-league.
And for all general public: Many of you curse mush all the time but think it is too dangerous to actually go out and protest against him. This is your last chance. Get off your lazy butts and at least come out to vote. If you do not, then you’ll be equally responsible for the devastation that mush will bring to Pakistan and to you and to your family and your children.
IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A FUTURE; COME OUT AND REMOVE MUSH BY YOUR VOTE.
Those cynics who keep barking that nothing is going to change and therefore there is no use of voting are in fact committing suicide as a human being. Then they will have to bear with being treated as animals the rest of their lives.
Bad leaders are elected by voters who do not vote.
In my opinion, these elctions would show a national voting trend generally favouring PPP ,PMLN and ANP and against PMLQ and MMA. We must remember these r the first elections after general public of Pakistan were exposed to a free media and a new awakening took place in post 9 th March period. I think PMLQ is not going to win even the number of seats given by pkpolitics unless massive rigging takes place. I think PPP will have a slight majority followed by PMLN followed by a distant PMLQ.
Rest , only GOD knows the best. We can only guess to the best of our abilities.