Final Guesstimate of National Assembly Seats. Some minor adjustments have been made in the chart after getting feedback from visitors and getting input from locals of different constituencies.
NA-119 of Lahore where Hamza Shahbaz was candidate of National Assembly has been removed due to the death of PMLQ candidate.
Free video has been archived. Sign up as a Contributor to watch this video.
Everyone,
You are most welcomed to give your views on individual seats, as this chart was concluded after analyzing every seat and we did not know the totals until the chart was complete.
All stupid comments will be deleted.
Admin
Admin,
Is it the actual seat guesstimate or calculated one keeping in mind the rigging factor?
Nice contribution just before elections.
keep it up
Its good to see both the charts, which show numbers and percentages. But this gets discovered after some effort. Can you please give Titles to the charts depicting same. I think the charts would appear better in 2D without the gaudy grey background.
This includes rigging factors, specially in rural areas where most seats have been alloted to PMLQ due to that.
Rigging factor has been kept lower in urban areas, but according to today’s report, heavy pre-poll rigging has started.
For example, many polling stations in Lahore have been moved 3 km away less than 24 hours before the elections from what was officially announced earlier by Election Commission.
There are also reports that many polling stations are now being held in private schools rather than government schools as per last minute changes.
Admin
Good effort ADMIN
Let us see tommorow
good work.
Its a good effort and deserves appreciation.
The estimate for Swat-1 and Swat-2 are for sure far than true. None of the seats
would go to MMA under current circumstances.
The rest lets hope the estimates turn out to be true tomorrow with pml-q down to 35 seats.
good effort admin but i am just wondering that a person like mush who has just openly said on many private televisions that Q league and MQM would win with heavy margin then how far a person like him can go. Allah Pakistan per reham keray
well this is good work but I doubt it also includes rigging factor “in favor of PMLN” … there is no way PPP is leading PMLN only by one seat.
@madman,
This is interesting to know as you seem to belong to Swat and I hope you are right. Which candidates you think are running strong on these 2 seats?
Admin
Well for swat 1 its completely unpredictable but the competition is between ppp(Salim ur rehman son of late Dr. Mehboob ur rehman), anp (Muzaffar mulk) and independent (Prince Adnan Aurengzeb), and no one knows who is going to win. If the turn out in the city area is less, than ANP may win it.
In Swat -2, most of people think, Abdul Akbar Khan of PPP is going to win this time.
@forgotten_sindhi,
Please list which seats in the tables you think should additionally go to PPP and why do you think those particular candidates are stronger than opposing candidates?
We have heavily kept the Biradari factor in the chart and you must know for a fact that majority of people in rural areas vote for their Biradari candidate instead of PPP or PML.
Admin
@admin
Sorry for Swat-2, its Allaudin (former depty nwfp speaker) who is gonna win, though currently he is out of the country
feedback:
I want to reaffirm the prediction about Const: Mansehra 2 , Faiz Muhammad Khan’s (PMLn) victory is almost sure.
@admin
) So who benefits? Arshad leghari (PML-N) or Raees Munir (PML-Q) I can not say.
Regarding Rahimyar Khan IV, the predicted winner Raees Mehboob Ahmad seems to have been disqualified (made it past his BA degree scrutiny but his FA turned out to be fake
Also in D G Khan III, Awais Leghari is anything but 100% winner as he is highly unpopular and going around threatening balochi people with attacks by FC has not helped. Accounts I have heard, local leaders their have plainly told him to get lost on his face saying “Sorry but we will not vote for you now and not any time in the future.” In fact his victory would be proof of massive rigging. Saifuddin Khosa is sure to win that seat…
@admin
Regarding Rahimyar Khan IV, just confirmed the Raees Mehboob Ahmad disqualification. Also found out he has made public announcements asking all his supporters to vote for Arshad Leghari and not Raees Munir… So maybe PML-N has another one sealed up…
Good work… Its hard to challenge your list specially the seats i know.. But indeed HARD WORK from yoursite.. Lets see tomorrow…
Mushaid Hussain (PML_N), Waseem Akhtar (MQM) are one of those educated spin masters which are good in putting SPIN in every dialogue. NeoCons (FOX NEWS) has been doing it for a while and they have mastered this technique. I am afraid that in our country Pakistan where literacy rate is low, these SPIN MASTERS can really brainwash the average person. In order to handle these people you need to be well educated and think logically and put emotions out of yourself. The host is a intellectual person but he is also having problem breaking this guy. I remember a clip while back where Imran Khan had a hard problem in shutting Wasim Akhtar (MQM) who in my opinion is a Master Spiner but an evil person.
Mushaid Hussain in Jawab Deh:
http://www.vidpk.com/view_video.php?vid=8784
In a latest interview with Jamima Khan, Mush the dictator predict a clear victory for Q and allies. I have little doubts in mind that Mush will harrass the non-Q voters from going to poling stations particularly in rural punjab and NWFP.
I see a real bad time for Pakistan. Mush can go to any extent.
Here is link to Jemima’s article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/an-extraordinary-encounter-with-musharraf-783388.html
An extraordinary encounter with Musharraf
Jemima Khan
The Independent
Sunday, 17 February, 2008
As Pakistan votes tomorrow in its postponed elections, Jemima Khan is granted a rare interview with Pervez Musharraf, the country’s beleaguered leader
On the way to the Camp Office in Rawalpindi, I cross the bridge and pass the petrol station, which mark the spots of two recent attempts on the life of the now deeply unpopular President. I have a horrible fear that, bamboozled under the spotlight of his renowned charm, I may start to simper. My ex-husband, one of the President’s most vocal critics, has already told me he thinks this is all a terrible idea. “It will be misinterpreted in Pakistan. Besides, you’ll be too soft on him,” he said.
My estimate at http://www.pkelections.com also has PPP getting the same share of the seats but PML-Q and N numbers are reversed due to the extreme jhurlo against N in particular already set in motion.
let us hope that there will be no mishap during the elections.and also pray that there will be no or minimum rigging(which looks bleak).
@ Admin
you said that in ur survey rigging factor is included(but i do not see it)
let me name a few constituencies where i strongly disagree with ur predictions.
187-183-157-149-142-141-140-127-124-114-111-103-94-93-89-88-87-83-82-74
-73-62-58-57
in these seats you predicted most as pmln winners and two or three ppp or independent,on these seats qleague will not win even one.
if there will no rigging q league will win more than half of these seats.
if rigging almost all of these seats.
we can wait until 19 feb and see .
Here’s the scientifically estimated estimate based on the political trends, past results, candidate stature, pre-poll rigging, and socio-ethnic concerns:
PPP 135
PMLQ 45
PMLN 40
REST 50
If voter turn out increases by 10% above the controlled increase of 5% then the Q share will decrease resulting in benefit to N. However if the voter turn out is same or 5% above the last election then these predictions based on quasi-scientific / prediction experiment should hold. However, if there is 5,000-10,000 vote advantage given to Q by the government in some of the constituencies then there will be decrease of about 50 seats for PPP. The interesting point is that it will benefit Q by 35-40 seats but as an unintended consequence will result in increasing N seats by 10-15 seats. This whole calculation assumes that results in numbers and letters will be provided at the polling stations. If that is not done that any result is possible.
Recently Musharraf informed nation saying that PMLQ and MQM will win the race of election. How can he predict before election as being president??? If he is president can he allowed to say??? Is not rigging before election?? Is he following by-laws saying other to folloow rules and mentioning stupid????
@saqibtahir
The SOB (Mush) has described CJP as the scum-of-the-earth. This SOB (Mush) is extremely frusterated with CJP because no one is buying his accusations and false stories against the CJP and he has not been able to make any progress on this front.
@saqibtahir on February 17th, 2008 4:55 pm
“I have little doubts in mind that Mush will harrass the non-Q voters from going to poling stations particularly in rural punjab and NWFP. ”
Just talked to a candidate in Rahimyar Khan. Says they have the votes but can’t get the voters to the polls as all the buses/vans/tractor-trolleys have been confiscated by the government…
i just want to confirm that ppp will get near 100 to 110 seats and pml n will get 60- to 70 inshallah ppp will win with majority and it will be victory for the poor people of pakistan.
dont seem realistic. seems you have ignored the factor that Q is govt supported party. in 50 seats about 30 are pet due to chd’s and pm’s relative etc woman seats.
well it could be a lot good review than i could think of.
the factor of ragging will tear apart N league and from 70 they will be down to 40 perhaps… and those 36 will go to Q….and plus independent n diesel factor will bring them to make a govt.
if elections are free n fair… then there are chances that ppp will clean sweep in sindh (specially internal sindh) and will share half seats with N. but realistically… the confidence of chds and musharaf n others is making me think that it will be something like this..
pml-n 30-40 seats
pml-q 80-110 seats
ppp 60-80 seats..
but you guys seems more in reviews and most of you are in pak and they know situaton better so ignore me if my view is not acceptable to any one.
@admin: How do you guys do this? is there a questionnaire with each question assigned a weight and then you input it into a formula or something? I’m just curious… From my gut feeling and what I’ve heard from people it would seem PPP would have a higher number of seats.. ( I say this also because of the attitude of the PML-N leadership … again its just my gut feeling) I don’t have any numbers to backup my claim.
The above linked piece by Jemima Khan is pretty disappointing. Nothing but fluff. What a waste of a great opportunity. May be Imran was right saying it was a bad idea. Probably has to be one of the worst interviews I have ever come across. But I am not surprised. I still remember the piece about Imran and Jemima some time back in Vanity Fair where they both presented themselves as poor souls forced to live is a one bedroom apartment in Lahore. If that wasn’t a crock, nothing ever is.
By the way, if you are reading this Mushy, how about giving me a thirty minute interview — if you have the guts, that is.
One factor that has probably not been taken into account is the role of Jamaat e Islami-
They are actively working FOR PML-N and also working AGAINST JUI-F in the areas of their influence.
Will this have an impact on the results ?
A good article on India’s journey from a bad democracy to a reasonably good one:
http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=96688
The message is clear and simple, a consistent democracy, no matter how bad it is, eventually delivers.
@TK,
The main formula is that the people in urban areas will vote for parties like PPP, PMLN, MQM etc.
People in rural areas will vote for stronger candidates and they will not take candidate’s party affiliation into big factor. Many people in rural areas even don’t know who was Shaukat Aziz.
There are candidates who always win regardless of the party ticket they get.
There are many other factors that were taken into account.
Admin
BTW some of our collagues are vying for pleasant surprises as far as PML-N is concerned. Their approach is to be a pessimetic as possible for the seat count of PML-N & then hope for a good evening 2morow. pkelections is also in this category. the rest of PML-N supporters are too optimistic but I’m afraid their evening will not be as god as they think though I want it to contrary.
good site for election coverage
http://pakelectionsonline.org/web/
@admin: thanks, btw the rigging video has no sound (I got it throug RSS feed already )
Admin
Please set up another discussion panel on the news that Pervez Musharraf in an interview with Jemaima khan has said two things
1. PML q WOULD WIN WITH THUMPING MAJORITY
2. CJ IFTIKHAR IS A THIRD RATE PERSON, A CORRUPT PERSON AND SCUM OF THE EARTH
Please comment on these observations. This clearly shows how low can Musharraf can stoop and this also proves that elections would be rigged.
Admin
Please set up another discussion panel on the news that Pervez Musharraf in an interview with Jemaima khan has said two things
1. PML q WOULD WIN WITH THUMPING MAJORITY
2. CJ IFTIKHAR IS A THIRD RATE PERSON, A CORRUPT PERSON AND SCUM OF THE EARTH
Please comment on these observations. This clearly shows how low can Musharraf can stoop and this also proves that elections would be rigged.
The next goverment is by PML Q AND PPP – both of them are responsible for giving Musharraf the benefit of election. Benazir has already paid the price and Zardari would also soon come to senses because once elections would take place – those PPP members who are elected would go to goverment and Zardari would not be able to do anything.
Already the judges have been given prime lands in Islamabad for their loyalty to Musharraf.
I would again say that BB (may her soul rest in peace ) did the greatest disservice to people of Pakistan by giving a lifeline to Musharraf and sabotaging the judicial movement and even now many of PPP lawyers are siding with goverment – top most examples are Ahsan Bhoon and Khosa.
God save Pakistani from these Mir Jafars – hope so Zardari would learn from them.
target killings of pmln candidate& supporters in lahore: PML-N candidate of pp154 dies.
there is a ticker on geo news that in green town lahore, PMLN candidate has been murdered, can any 1 plz confirm the name of person and the NA # ?
apologize if i post it in more than one session
his name is aasif ashraf… he was contesting in green town
last efforts from PMLQ to terrorise people from casting vote… i called my father yesterday and conviced him to go and vote and he was reluctant… dont know whats gonna happen tommorow
thanks mya, it it the same halka as for johar town/township
shame shame at Q league…they can do anything for power. desperate rascals!
We thank you Administration at Pkpolitics for bring us the latest information on the current affairs in pakistan and the election in particular. We deeply appreciate your efforts and services in updating the current events occuring in Pakistan.
I hope that the polls will be free, fair and transparent. I further hope that Pakistanis will be given a chance to excercise their right to vote and they will have easy access to the polling station. Most of all, we all must pray to allmighty Allah for safety of all Pakistanis, who will be going out to cast their votes tomorrow.
PML(N) canditate from Lahore PP154 killed
shame on Mush, shame on Chaudries
PPP 110 (some may join PML-Q later)
PMLQ 70
PMLN 30 (At least 10-15 will join PML-Q later)
REST 55 (All independent will join PML-Q later).
——————————————————————
The forces behind will form an alliance after the election.
The PML-N’s 2/3 majority in 1997 was also from the same force which was squeesed to just 20-30 seats in 2002 assembly.These Chs will try their best to take control over the PML as a whole.This is the wish thay have since 1986 when Pervez Elahi prepared a no confidence move against NS and then Zia had to interupt and directed CHs not to do this (I myself was attend this no confidence move and the punjab assembly pass was in my pocket).
Some international forces want musharaf to be Hosni Mubarak of Pakistan so I have no hope at all that people will be heard in this election.
This is just my opinion,you may differ.
Regards,
Munir
i hope people in UK know: that ARY ONE WORLD has started transmission. channel 806 on Sky
So much for foreign observers…they are completely satisfied with the Election Commission and saying there is no chance of large scale rigging of polls.. Must be from Scotland Yard.
I happened to meet one of these so called official UK observers from the Labor Party and in the first couple of minutes was amazed by her lack of knowledge about the country though she has spent considerable time here on other occasions so I saw no point enlightening her as I knew the effort would be wasted. She had just come from a meeting with Shahbaz and said her feeling was Shahbaz sounded like a man-in-waiting and not someone who was about to win an election.
Of course she is choosing to take a couple of days off with a trip to Dubai to relax and do some sunbathing as she sees no point in being here on election day. She is a also buddy of PJ Mir so that should tell you something.
@admin.
is there any guestimate for provisional assemblies?
Any short overview will help the discussions.
@admin
Are you planning to post election results as they come in. I guess it will be good to have a dedicated topic just giving results or even progressive results as they pour in. I will even suggest to post faxed results from different polling stations in order to keep a record in case they are needed afterwards to fight rigging. Also if you can update results of NA seats along with your guesstimate so we can easily see how close you were to the reality.
Nawaz Sharif victory would be well deserve and well predicted, If free & fair election being held.
but chance of Rigging is very clear, here is the proof,
d comments made by Musharaf, that is being criticized everywhere!
the audio conversation of Malik Qayyum!
the new regulation of PEMRA on Private television!
So what i can say that Nawaz Sharif deserve victory, but mushi would not let him to go ahead, PML-Q will take lead only by lead.
I would support PML-N.
About the prediction,i would say that its nice and fairly enough, but about PPP seats,i can say that due to new leadership of PPP, (Asif Zardari) i can see rare chance of PPP to win majority of seat!
@ Munir,
I appreciate your prediction, but i am not with your comments, because these PML-Q are in the game just coz of Musharaf, & he has been proof himself today by his sentence that PML-Q would b the winner! and will make govt with MQM.
how can he make such strong prediction with surity before election! isn’t interesting!
have u gone through the TV prog in Aryone world hosted by Javid Malik & W. Badami, majority of Caller & guest speaker were criticizing Musharaf comments! and most of them were supporting Nawaz Sharif policy!
Oh man — this is just too wild!
Just did some research on the “Foreign Election Observer” I mentioned above and was surprised to find so much….
Beisdes being a lota herself (ex-Tory), this lady herself has been involved in every kind of election rigging back in the UK. Among them sleeping with a politician leading to political appointment (she was married, he was married), ballot stuffing, diverting public resources towards campaigns, and getting herself appointed to a position that some one is supposed to be elected to ….
Don’t think she will have any trouble fitting into the political culture here, will she
In response to a comment regarding inaccurate guesses in some constituencies, I would like to express the following views.
57-prediction quite accurate
58- Close fight between Malik Sohail (N) and Pervaiz Elahi (Q) with edge to latter
62-close fight with edge to Shahbaz Hussain of Q over Raja Safdar of N.
73-prediction quite accurate
74-prediction quite accurate
82-prediction quite accurate-Faisalabad urban-N-League strong
83-prediction quite accurate- Faisalabad urban-N-League strong
87-close fight but Sughra Imam has an edge
88-close fight but Abida Hussain has an edge
89-Q-league has made an adjustment with Sipah-e-Sahaba-prediction accurate
93-close fight with edge to Kashif Ashfaq (Q-league)
94-close fight with edge to Ch Asad ur Rahman (PML-N) and brother of Justice Ramday
103-Prediction accurate-Shahid Bhatti (N) is way ahead of Liaqat Bhatti (Q)
111-Prediction wrong-Firdous Ashiq Awan (PPP) is likely winner
114-Close fight with Ghulam Abbas (PPP) as the likely winner
124-Prediction quite accurate-lower middle class urban area with hatred against govt/Q
127-Prediction quite accurate- lower middle class urban area with hatred against govt/Q
140-Prediction inaccurate-Asif Ahmad Ali (PPP) is likely winner
141-Close fight but Rana Ishaq (N) with an edge over Sardar Asif Nakai (Q)
142-Close fight with Talib Nakai of Q with an edge over Rana Hayat (N)
149-Close fight between Hashmi (N) and Dogar (PPP). Edge to Hashmi.
157-Prediction seems inaccurate-Hamidyar Hiraj (Q) is likely winner.
183-Close fight with edge to Amir Shah of N-League
187-Close fight with edge to Saud Majid of N-League
Additionally, my views on the predictions in the more constituencies are:
53-Close fight between Nisar Ali Khan (N) and Ghulam Sarwar (Q)
61-Faiz Tamman of N has an edge over Pervaiz Elahi of Q
100-Close fight between Tariq Yaqoob (PPP) and Bilal Ejaz (Q). Anybody can win
105-Close fight between Ch. Shujaat (Q) and Ahmad Mukhtar (PPP). Anybody can win
112-Close fight with edge to Rana Abdus Sattar (N) over Ch. Shujaat (Q)
146-Anybody amongst Rao Ajmal (Q), Abbas Shah (PPP) and Manzoor Wattoo can win
129-Close fight between Habibullah Warraich (Q) and Adil Umar (N). Anybody’s game
173-Close fight between Saif Khosa (N) and Awais Leghari (Q). Anybody can win.
189-Close fight with edge to Sahibzada Mumtaz (PPP) over Shahida Lalika (Q)
192-Close fight between Alam Anwar (Q) and Ahmad Mahmood (F). Anybody’s win.
193-Close fight with edge to Mian Abdussattar (PPP) over Zaib Jaffar (N)
195-Jahangir Tarin will win.
There seems to be real paranoia regarding rigging in this website. Please bear in mind that this time the candidates are more vigilant than ever. To begin with, postal ballots (which were always polled in high numbers and a major part of rigging) are minimal. This is the result of individual watchfulness of the candidates. Other checks are also there. The media has been allowed to telecast/broadcast the results of each polling station after the same has been announced by the presiding officer. The announcement of combined tally of declared polling stations has also be allowed. This means that the results will be out much earlier than before and consequently no addition of votes of ghost polling stations. Those who have some experience of electioneering will agree that good management of election day takes care of any rigging. I know that many candidates from opposition parties have planned this.
Lastly, in my humble view, the PPP will win 75-85 seats, PML-N will be second with about 65-75 seats and PML-Q third with 60-70 seats. The remaining seats will be divided among smaller parties and independents.
Lets wait till tomorrow and everything will be clear.
Please ask your friends and family members to go out and cast there vote as thats how we can make real difference.We all condemn Mush and his regime in drawing rooms and on websites but very few people actually turn up on polling day.So today is our day to tell him GO MUSHARAF GO in its true and practical sense.
Dont forget one vote can make a difference in winning or losing.
come on this is rubbish
PML N cannt win more than 45 seats any way.
Mark my words.
1-PPP
2-PMLq
3-PML n
4-MQM
5-ANP
********149-Close fight between Hashmi (N) and Dogar (PPP). Edge to Hashmi.******
this my home consituency.
Makhdoom Javid Hashmi had no Chance winning from Multan.
Its Doggers Seats dogger won it in 2002.
Does any one know from where the son of our Great lead Gen Zia-ul-Haq is fighting from.
@Kinnare
“Great Leader Gen Zia-ul-Haque”
Ijaz ul Haq is contesting from NA-191 BahawalNagar-IV
(hope he will loose this time)
——————
I do appreciate your comment
my estimate has NA-191 as leaning to Q, so unfortunately the late Zia Ul Haq’s son will again be serving as a servant to Mush if my estimate is correct ( http://www.pkelections.com )
@Awais
“Makhdoom Javid Hashmi had no Chance winning from Multan.
Its Doggers Seats dogger won it in 2002.”
You might be right but your logic is faulty. Well this is not 2002. Also in my home constituency most of those who won in 2002 have no chance of winning this time around, even with all the rigging. And yes, those seats have been in the “family” for sixteen years or longer.
[...] cites, have ‘guestimated’ that the PPP will win 29% of the seats, PMLN 28%, and the PMLQ 19%. The PPP is expected to be [...]
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