By Aamir Ghauri
Pakistan is riding tumultuous waters and seemingly pushing nowhere.But that is not wholly true. It is heading for disaster unless skippered right.
The government born out of Musharraf-Bhutto deal is on a short lease not by default but by design. Desperate attempt by President Zardari to thrust Bilawal on to the party stage is recognition of personal incapacity. His team is either dysfunctional or non-existent. His chosen prime minister is limp needing permanent scaffolding to sustain position but is unlikely to secure one against the falling, failing presidential palace.
In a nutshell, Pakistan People’s Party is facing internal and external threat — mortal threat. Internally, party workers are disillusioned after the murder of the last Bhutto standing. Hopes of getting something from the crippling elite cadre is keeping them in line. Old guard is long gone and the latest “kids on the block” are busy doing what their party is rightly or wrongly best known for. Externally, the military is happy to see the most potent political threat rot and the political opponent, Nawaz Sharif is gaining ground. Muttahida Qaumi Movement is keen to capture Sindh’s urban areas for good, a goal looking increasingly achievable. Mullahs are getting stronger in rural Punjab and could pose a murderous threat before too long. And to top it all, the party has a history of making political blunders in Balochistan and Frontier during earlier power stints and is continuing with them.
But it can’t be said that all is lost. There are signs of rejuvenation nonetheless. Not supported by the party leadership, it seems the centre is slowly but definitely shifting towards Punjab for reasons not too difficult to understand. The PPP has historically been associated with Sindh because of Bhuttos, who needed support from Punjab to reach the pinnacle of power. Its political appeal was, however, more than any other political party in the country. Successive military rules have not only cemented PPP’s public appeal as the only credible opposition party but also created a cache of pliable politicians in Punjab by creating this or that Muslim League. All that changed when Musharraf overthrew Nawaz Sharif in 1999.
Punjab under Sharifs now represent the opposition to Pakistan Army’s political ambitions while Sindh is standing shoulder to shoulder with the ancien regime – be it Zardari’s PPP or Altaf Hussain’s MQM. Situation can grow grimmer if PPP does not change course. One, the army will love to see PPP crumble to provincial crumbs thereby leaving Sharif’s PML-N alone to fight the
fight for people’s politics. Second, loss of public faith in politics and politicians will be enhanced irreparably. Thirdly, Sharifs will become too strong for the PPP’s political future but more dangerously will left alone be on a collision course with the military sooner than later. Hence needed, a change of course and a change of face.
Zardari-Gilani represents a political elite that is a dying breed in Pakistan.
The lawyer-civil society-media confrontation with Musharraf has proven that point to an extent. Those standing with or favouring military junta would self-destruct if not sooner then later. The Chaudhrys of Gujrat are just one case to remember. The PPP leadership needs to go to a fresher, fairer, fighting but most importantly educated leadership. Aitzaz represent that genre. I am not alone in saying that. He has proven himself to be shrewder than expected. By leading the charge against Musharraf, by abdicating the Bar to Kurd, by attracting the young, by engaging the West, by talking sense and by remaining loyal to the party, he is sending all the right signals. And may be the military, in time will back him as well. Why? Not because he is from the educated middle class, not because he studied at Cambridge and been called to the Bar in England, or because he is no feudal lord with private jails and Swiss accounts. But because he listens to the military’s anguished leadership too. And who knows by tomorrow he might be able to lock horns with Sharifs in Punjab and elsewhere.
Pakistan army and its international backers do not like Nawaz Sharif at this particular juncture. Not because he does not want to listen and work with the most powerful group in the country — the army — but because he is aware of his own strength. Army, to my humble understanding, does not like a leader in Pakistan – a leader who can challenge army’s gargantuan authority
across the provincial divide. Nawaz Sharif has the capability of healing Pakistan’s wounds. But he will have to wait for his turn if it ever comes.
Pakistan needs both, the Sharifs and a robust PPP. Both need to attract young, educated and motivated men and women to their cadres to build a stronger Pakistan. The army needs to parade back – if not dramatically then inch by inch. Pakistan cannot afford any more adventurism – internally or externally. The time and space around us is changing fast. Our neighbours do not trust us neither do our friends. Our path is laden with innumerable mines
and survival would demand we pace ourselves right with right leaders in place.
Aamir Ghauri is the editor of London-based weekly The Asian Journal.
aamoghauri@yahoo.com
Although not a PPP fan at all, but totally disagree. Theories after theories with no understanding of realities, will ultimately prove to be the biggest lost for this nation. The society I believe has been divided right now between idealism and pragmatism. Idealism, where one seeks the ultimate perfect system, which in reality God says has never existed and can never exist till the day man is resurected. Pragmatism, a conjucture used in different contexts, is mainly the understanding of the world and setting your foot accordingly.
Aitezaz is no leader at all. Just a couple of good days, and suddenly people start to draw conclusions. The PPP, which has been always cited in much the same manner as we see today, has always run out of this fuss. Right when Bhutto was hanged, when BB took the party over, when PPP lost the 97 elections, when she was not allowed back, and even today; on all the occasions the slogan was the same, the PPP has died for ever. It never happened, and I believe it never can.
The partyhas always provided a new face and thus faced criticism for that. Its the same story today. After severl years 4m now, the people who will blog in after me and abuse me, will actually acknowledge what the party is doing today. I have been a big opponent of the party since long, but I have always been wrong.
Zardari though not popular at all, rather notorious, has unfortunately done well. The impact cant be seen today. Contrary to what I expected he took a clear stand on the Taliban, a stand I believe no one could have taken.
Having said that, I must agree the party is struggling and trying to find ground, but by no means is Aitezaz ever a leader in PPP. Rather having fought in political scuffles with the PPP jiyalas, who later became friends, they all hate him. It is strange party, but destiny has favoured them time and over again. So let us not draw conclusions early on.
Please feel free to ridicule, abuse and whatever. You know its the reality, whatever I have said.
this is very theoretical analysis, looks good on paper but not reality or what is actually happening in Pakistani Politics. so many hypothetical scenario and many iffs and buttss in this writeup.
@romano.Good analysis. We must see PPP in different way.We can say there are two PPPs.one of the elite class who see the party to get power and the other is the party of the poor.who see party as revolutionary party(wheather it is or not).party of ZA bhutto is still alive in the hearts and minds of working class ppl.This is the real power of PPP.People remember Bhutto as Hero and heros never dies. Regading Aitzaz Ahsen,,he can win the trust of the ppl if he start talking in favour of the poors and party workers. People of Pakistan see PPP to solve their roblems..others who hate PPP they are mostly biased.Indeed in this situation PPP showed a good charecter of understanding.Taliban Issuse,,economy,friends of pakistan,,Benazir income support,,and many other issues was tackled with great potential.We hope with all their short comings they will do good fpr pakistan
In short, kuch ziada hi aflatooni jhar di he uncle ne
Is Aitzaz Ahsan writing by name of Amir Ghauri now. I will not waste time going into a lengthy discussion about this article when it can be summed up in two words WISHFUL THINKING. PPP is and will remain the biggest party of Pakistan. Next thing we will know Amir Ghauri will get appointed as high court judge, after all he has written in favour of AA and CJ has 100s of vacant seats to give away.
@romano,u did better analysis than biased aamir ghauri.pakistan is heading towards two party system,ppp and muslim league N.some people has devolped so much hate for ppp,they can accept brocken pakistan but they will never accept ppp in power.the ppp hatters are really danger to pakistan bc ppp will keep winning elections and these people will keep removing ppp illegally ,in the process keep damging pakistan.
I only have one thing to add …. Mr Ghauri has stressed hard on people like Aitzaaz & Nawaz … A famous saying ” If Aunty had balls she would have been an uncle” —– I rest my case ….. Pakistan Zindabad
This analysis is very cogently put and I find myself utterly in agreement with Amir’s diagnosis and prognosis.
This is one of the most profound tectonic shifts in Pakistani politics. PMLN is destined to play populist politics because it has the demographic destiny on its side. Urban Punjab has grown in population and wealth, acquired education, middle-class aspirations and a degree of industrialization during the Musharraf era, and wants a fair shake. Young Turks like Khwaja Saad Rafiq represent the Punjabi street and are spoiling for a fight with the establishment and the PPP. No chance for PPP, JI or PTI in Punjab.
@Pejamistri
The PPP has become part of the establishment, the ancien régime, and is on its way to final oblivion. I wonder if your understanding of Euclidean geometry has improved in the space of a year
Urban Sindh is MQM country and shall remain so. An intriguing question arises when rural Sindh is considered. What will happen here in a post-PPP world? Will rural Sindh go for the only other viable alternative, the PMLN? I think not. It is more likely that the rural Sindh vote will go to the nationalists. The anti-IDP riots and fatalities are worrying portents of this realignment in rural Sindh.
What does 2013 look like? PPP wiped out in Punjab and restricted to areas around Larkana and Garhi Khudabaksh. PMLN ruling the roost in Punjab, and making sizable gains in Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
This leaves PTI, JI and JUIF in the toilet. Where they so rightly belong
Atizan Ahsan is a great leader. I will be very happy if he can lead the PPP. I have only one reservation. Can he win his seat from Lahore w/o Nawaz Sharif’s support? Like IK he is all over in national and international media but when it comes to electability they both rely on Nawaz Sharif.
Army phobia…
The writer is trying to spin eveything around army and seems to paint army as the power thirsty institution…
and he is forgetting that the army rule gets birth from the mistakes of incapable and idiotic political leadership… or at the least… stupid decisions…
Indeed, Pakistani political landscape is gravitating toward a distinct two-party system in the form of a center-left PPP and a center-right PMLN; and I think it is good for Pakistan. Like in India Pakistan will have minor ‘regional’ or ‘ethnic’ players who will play some part in evolving national consensus on issues. That’s all good for Pakistan provided another 111-Brigade march is not taken.
Anyone wishing for PPP’s extermination is going to do great disservice to Pakistan. Indeed, the party has lost a towering figure when Benazir Bhutto died but it has still managed to done okay by merely surviving considering the global financial meltown and Pakistan’s dire security situation. And I won’t be surprised at all by a ‘hung parliament’ in 2013 in a way where PPP manages a close second electoral position. NS is indeed most popular today but 2013 is still a few years away and ultimately ‘all politics is local’. Never forget how unpopular NS had became by 12 October 1999. Popularity rises and falls in Pakistan pretty quickly.
Cheers to a Two Party System. Live and let live.
Happy Independence Day!
PS. Interesting analysis @Ramano
i can bet ppp will rule pakistan next 15 years.the reason is simple,west and america has found the right combination for pakistan,as long as they r in afghnistan they will stick to this combination.they cannt take risk right wing party rule pakistan.
In the past year and a half, PML-N has proven to be a B-team of PPP in the parliament. Their role in the parliament has been more disappointing than the PPP.
….@aamoghauri
My dear , why you are so upset with all this system.with blessings of your dear Journail saab, they will florish.Do not try to give a hope of Aitzaz ahsan.He is misssss fit in your system of corruption.But I can assure you all,you and other your type of people,always fit with any,i mean as few days earlier,everything was perfect for you because PMLQ “waday choudhry saab ” was a regular finacer,you are still getting money from Mian Aamir Mehmood Nazim lahore..Dunia TV fame,now he gave you a Lifafa for your asian journal……
tu fit hay ganjay…………bottle kay Jinnn……..
romano,
You had good analysis of PPP. It is a wishful thinking of establishment to have PPP leadership shifted from Sindh to Punjab. It has not yet got successful in that. The problem with Jiyala group is that they always look Garhi Khuda Baksh for their leadership. PPP Punjab leadership has so many times back stabbed PPP that non one I mean no one from PPP Punjab leadership is trustworthy in the eyes of Jiyalas. Leghari back stabbed PPP, Gillani is ready to back stab PPP any time. Jehangir Badar had taken bribe from NS earlier elections for distributing PPP tickets to un-electable candidates. AA has relationship with NS which is good thing but makes AA untrustworthy for Jiyala Group. I would rather have Bilawal come earlier and take charge from AZ. AZ has done few stupid steps but he is doing much better than he was expected to do specially when dealing with Taliban. the thing that makes AZ a pragmatic leader is that he is not trapped in ego which had sometimes hurt BB. His agility is what is actually helping him survive in current situation. NS is popular in Pakistan but most of its popularity is exaggerated by columnists. ppl still have not forgotten NS role in Zia ul Haq’s time. NS is though successful is bringing all anti-Bhutto Punjabi element at one platform.
I this we should not be so optimistic in case of PML N. Military leadership is no more worried about Sharif because he does get dictation from US as do our military leadership, so both r working for the same MASTER in different ways.
Aitzaz is more competent than any of PPP leaders. BUT the important thing is Whether he is enough competent to lead without dictation from MASTER or NOT.
what a wishful thinking of Nawaz , PLM N fan, a try to portray him as one and the only and the lonely leader of Pakistan, with apparently ‘ healing powers’ for the national wounds. The man who doesnt have a clear agenda on important issues like Taliban, is he for or against Taliban and Swat operation?,the man who is strangely quiet after restoration of Shahbaz as PM, the man who is famously over fed and has a low IQ , famously called Bhola by his own late father is apparently is the magical leader Pak needs right now
The writer is quite right that the army establishment sadly never wants a genuine leader because they very well know that whoever is genuinely elected will challenge their status -quo. I think the writer is also a bit afraid seeing PPP getting off the national stage which will be a severe blow to Pakistan. May be the army is waiting for PPP to collapse and to fill the vaccum they might have another monkey for this show. Nawaz shareef will not compromise with the military and they don’t trust him either, but the big question is who will fill the vaccum? Thats what writer is pointing at.
@ Romano
I am surprised when you said ” Zardari has done well”. For a moment I thought “democrate” just changed his name but then you backed it up with “firm stand on taliban issue”. I dont think you could come up with any other argument to back “done well”. This website is loaded with programs, all talking about nothing but failures of Zardari and defamation of PPP mainly bcz of Zardari’s decision. I am sorry but one must be absolutely demented to even think that “zardari has done well”.
As far as the taliban issue is concerned, I do not think it was the brain child of Zardari in anyway. His stupidity had been very well demonstrated in the Punjab Governor rule debacle. Most certainly the credit goes to Gen. Kiyani for creating a national concensus and getting a go-ahead nod from the very staunch opposers of operations (other than JI and co.) The credit for success of the swat operation also goes to Gen. Kiyani and not to Zardari. Every single person in Pakistan believes he is the scum of Pakistan and there is no second opinion about it. However, most people (including me) would want to see him either finish his tenure or be replaced in a legal and constitutional manner.
and @ democrate, replacing Zardari does not mean derailing democracy. Infact, in a democratic system with a powerful president (unlike parliamentary democracy) requires the president to be elected directly by the people and not by its own party members. Like Gilani rightly said, the democracy in Pakistan is neither parliamentary nor presidential but a hodge podge.
Well there is no comparison between aitzaz and zardari &co(F naek, shaukat tareen, dr asim etc)..Aitzaz is one of the few left real PPP leader..i will prefer him over zardari & co thousand times..as far as future of PPP is concerened i think it will be rural sindh party in next election..if zardari & bilawal zardari still co chair then it may not even win in larkhana where this time PPP murtaza bhutto group have more chances of winning..
laarkana party ….. ppp
@SS
“I am surprised when you said ” Zardari has done well”. For a moment I thought “democrate” just changed his name ”
How can you think that one jiyala will talk differently than other??? galli main kuttay boltay hain sab bhoonktay hee lagtay hain ….
we judge ppp not with education but who sacrificed more.there r thousands of people in ppp who sacrificed mor than aaitzaz aahsan.
what about Murtaza bhutto… the son of ZA bhutto murdered by Zardari …. who’s enquiry was even denied in PPP government …. when her sister was PM … Before his killing he openly accused Zardari for threatening him … he knew he will be killed by criminal Zardari
sactifices my foot …. dhanda hay dhanda …iqtadar ki khatir bahan bahi ko bhe marwa daytii hay.. khawand biwi ko
@suppercreature,u r a sick man how a sister can think such a thing.hate has made ur brain rotten piece of sh@@t.
i think Aitzaz is not a leader he is what we call ‘populist’.
in 2002 elections he only won his seat from Humayun Akhter by 4000 Votes. i am not sure with the support of PPP will be able to win his own home seat from a PML N candidate [in Lahore]
I partially agree with the writer. It is correct that Army will not like to see a powerful leader which can challenge it’s authority. It is very unfortunate that our Army (means Generals) is the sole responsible for the present day Pakistan. had there been a political continuity, the politics could have got matured to day. Some writers are praising the Army’s role in NWFP, that they have crushed the insurgency. They are sadly mistaken, let the things get settled, they ( the miscreants ) will come again . The indiscriminate killing and scores of dead bodies found every day in sawat will not bring fruit for us. If things get continued then, my country men should get ready for another East Pakistan debacle. Please remember, the states man ship can not be left in the hands of Generals, they only speak the language of POWER. The political issues can only be solved on the table by the politicians.
The Political Situation in Pakistan calling Awaam to be STAND Behind Political System even if its INEFFICIENT but we Must be there behind them & never Let Army to Kickout Awaam representative & be there for another 11 years … as Munoo Bhahi , a great Writer
has said ” Pakistani Fuj Dushman say 17 din say ziyadah JANG nahi lar sakti mager apnay awaam per 11 saal say KUM hakumat nahi ker sakti….” …
Dear Friends,
I agree with the writer, one thing we must understand that Pakistan is not a country of yester years by any mean now. PPP government is able to swim against the tides only because of a very friendly opposition. I strongly wish that current democratic system should sustain. Suppose if, media would have been free like it is these days. Most of the corrupt and unable leaders would have been already filtered out.
If we would have only PTV by now, Ameer Ul Momineen Hazrat Musharaf would have been our life time president in uniform. My point of view is, things have changed a lot and are still changing. I am not concerned, who is the president or PM of Pakistan and what party he belongs to. But who works for people of Pakistan.
Regards
Muhammad Tanvir
Malaysia
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