April 14, 2014

Gallup’s Annual Public Pulse Report 2014

Gallup Pakistan has released its Annual Public Pulse Report 2014 based public opinion. The survey has revealed that the present PML-N government’s Performance Ratings are a huge improvement over the PPP-Zardari led government a year ago, as there is an improvement of 59% points in the Rating of overall performance of the present government. Nawaz government gets a Green Card (favourable views exceed unfavourable views) in overall running of the government, as 55% give a favourable rating.

Gallup Pakistan’s study is based on findings from a nationally representative poll in the Rural and Urban areas of all four Provinces of Pakistan. Sample size was 2,596 adult men and women, face to face interviews, selected through probability sampling method; Error margin was kept at 3-5% at 95% confidence level. Field Work was carried out from 06 January to 13 January , 2014.

For the 6 Key Indicators including Economy, Pak-India Relations, Overall Foreign Policy, Terrorism control, Corruption control and Inflation control the present PML-N government received positive comparative net performance ratings. Economy recorded a positive 48% comparative net performance, Pak India Relations 22%, Foreign Policy 33%, Terrorism control 31%, Corruption control 36% and Inflation control recorded a positive 20% net change.

The Net Performance Ratings for Political Leaders rated Muhammad Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) at the top with a rating of favourable 18%. Imran Khan (PTI) was rated as minus 5% unfavourable, Asif Ali Zardari (PPP) at – 28%, Altaf Hussain (MQM) – 39%, Mulana Fazl-ur-Rehman (JUI) at -21% and Asfandyar Wali Khan (ANP) rated as – 34%. Ratings of Syed Munawar Hassan (JI) remained unchanged.

On issues of controlling inflation, terrorism and corruption, there is an improvement over the dismal ratings of the previous government in its last year, showing an improvement of 20% points on the subject of inflation; 31% points on control of terrorism and 36% points on control of corruption in government.

Gallup Pakistan survey shows that the government performance still gets a Red Card on controlling Inflation, Terrorism and Corruption in government. But the Red Card is not as dark as the one received by PPP led government a year ago. Despite Red Cards on specific issues, Nawaz government gets a Green Card (favourable views exceed unfavourable views) in overall running of the government, as 55% give a favourable and 40% give an unfavourable rating, giving a positive balance of 15% points. A year ago only 27% had given a favourable rating to the then PPP led government while 71% had given a negative rating, which gave it a negative balance of 44% points.

Another aspect covered by the Gallup Pakistan Survey is the performance of Chief Ministers of the Four Provinces. Performance of CM Punjab was rated as Very Good by 21% people surveyed while as 28% rated him Good.

6 % “Very Good” ratings were obtained by CM Sind, while as CM KPK and CM Baluchistan each got a mere 4 % rating as Very Good. CM Punjab topped the list by obtaining 26% overall net performance rating. But other Chief Ministers remained on the negative list with CM Sind obtaining – 9 %, CM KPK – 11% and CM Baluchistan obtaining – 14 % net performance ratings. However, an overall positive trend was observed in the performance of the Chief Ministers as compared to performance ratings taken in 2013 during the same period when PPP government was in power. CM Punjab improved his performance by 6 % as compared to 2013 and CM Sind improved by 18 %. The new CMs in KPK and Baluchistan improved performance ratings significantly from their predecessors as CM Baluchistan got 20% performance rating and CM KPK was rated 16 % better as compared to previous CMs for the same period.

Gallup Pakistan also surveyed opinion about State institutions. Net Performance ratings of Armed Forces improved upto 49%, Supreme Court improved 27% while as Parliament improved its rating to 8%. However, performance of other institutions including Police, Lower Courts and Political Parties got negative ratings, with Police at – 42%, Lower Courts at – 6% and Political Parties’ performance rated at – 17%. Comparative net performance ratings for state institutions as compared to 2013, however, improved. Armed Forces recorded a net change of 4%, Police 8%, Lower Courts 2%, Parliament 30% and Political Parties 20%. It was only the Supreme Court that recorded a negative 14% net change.

Comparative Net Performance ratings, from January 2014 compared with January 2013, for Civil Society institutions were also recorded. NGOs recorded a positive 15%, Media 3%, Educational Institutions (Schools and Colleges) 3% and Religious Leaders recorded 7% positive net change as compared to 2013.

9 Comments

  1. sipahi says:

    PML N Economic Policies are on right track? Really!!
    I am sure friends of these governments will come up with some arguments that it is correct to add $15.3 Billion just to the external debt to to forgive loans, tax breaks to big businesses, build roads, bridges, SROs, etc. This is besides the mortgaging of future being done by selling of assets of country including 3G & 4G licenses in cheap and borrowing big time from State Bank.

    Mortgage the future of Pakistanis young and old for the benefit of few friends of PML N.

    http://www.dawn.com/news/1105310/govt-breaches-limit-adds-153bn-to-external-debt

    ISLAMABAD: The government on Friday confirmed to have added about $15.3 billion to the country’s external debt, violating prudent borrowing limits under the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act (FRDLA) and promised to reduce public debt significantly by 2015-16.

    This is part of Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS 2013-14 to 2017-18) released here on Friday after conclusion of third review of the IMF programme in Dubai. “The public debt to GDP ratio is projected to be brought down to 55.2pc by 2015-16,” said the ministry of finance.

    It said the debt ratio was expected to be around 52pc by end 2017-18 which would be well below the threshold of 60pc as mentioned in the FRDLA.

    The MTDS said the country’s external debt was estimated to touch $72 billion (Rs7.202 trillion) at the end of this fiscal year on June 30 against $57bn (Rs5.7tr at current exchange rate) same period last year.

    It said the external debt stood at 24.9pc of GDP on June 30, 2013 which had now gone up to 27.7pc of GDP by end of this year.

    The government said it had violated the requirements of the FRDLA. It said the government was required to reduce revenue deficit to zero by June 30, 2008 and then maintain revenue surplus but the revenue balance had been running in the negative since 2005.

    Giving reasons for this violation, it quoted increasing exogenous and endogenous challenges including campaign against extremism, fragile law and order, continued energy shortages, narrow tax base, non-materialisation of sufficient external inflows and unprecedented floods of 2010, rains in 2011 and increasing debt servicing requirement.

    Also, it said the government was required to keep total public debt below 60pc after June 2013 but this provision was also violated. “Public debt to GDP was recorded at 62.7pc as on June 2013. Crossing this threshold by 2.7pc was mainly due to the actual deficit being higher than projected”.

    It said the law also required the government that spending on health and education shall be doubled to 1pc and 3.2pc respectively from July 2003 but conceded that this target was also not achieved.

    The portion of total debt which has a direct charge on government revenues as well as the debt obtained from IMF is taken as public debt.

    Public debt stock recorded at Rs14,366bn as on June 30, 2013 representing an increase of Rs1,699bn or 13pc higher as compared with last fiscal year.

    This increase in public debt is attributed to financing of fiscal deficit which was recorded at 8pc of GDP against the budgeted estimate of 4.7pc.

    Pakistan’s total public debt as a percentage of revenues stood at 482pc during 2012-13, whereas, public debt around 350pc of government revenues is generally believed to be within the bounds of sustainability.

    Revenue deficit stood at Rs649bn or 2.8pc of GDP in 2012-13 which reflects the non-availability of fiscal space for undertaking development spending. Primary deficit stood at Rs814bn or 3.6pc of GDP in 2012-13 which essentially implies that the government is borrowing to pay interest on the debt stock.

    Refinancing risk is probably the most significant in Pakistan’s debt portfolio, driven primarily by the concentration of domestic debt in short maturities, the finance ministry said.

    Around 34pc of total public debt stock is denominated in foreign currencies, exposing Pakistan’s debt portfolio to exchange rate risk. Adjusted for Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the main exposure of exchange rate risk comes from US dollar denominated loans (14pc of total debt), followed by Japanese yen (9pc) and loans denominated in euro (7pc).

    Depreciation of the rupee would affect both the stock of government debt as well as debt servicing flows.

    Exposure to interest rate changes is a substantial risk given the short term nature of domestic securities and external borrowing in floating rates. Around 67 per cent of total domestic debt is exposed to interest rate refixing within one year as compared to 25 per cent of external debt.

  2. Nadim says:

    Gallup Pakistan is fraudulently using Gallup International’s name. Shafi Gilani has lost the case in Pakistani court but he is still violating the copyright of Gallup’s name. This fraud organization influenced Election results by projecting PMLN as the most popular party before election which was contrary to all other independent polls.

  3. Ahmad Khan says:

    This is an interesting matter. Imran appointed consultants from PTI for implementaion of development projects in KPK. These consultants were clueless about the job, majority from Punjab and their only qualification was PTI membership. Imran determined their fee @15% of the total cost of project which was to be paid to them in advance. The implementing departments were asked to start their work only on receipt of the relevent consultant. As a matter of fact they were all paid 15% i.e. around Rs1.5 billion. As mentioned above none of them was competent for the job and could not submit their reports as a result the entire development budget for Rs10 billion lapsed on 30/6/2014 and the remaining funds (10 bil minus 1.5 bil paid to consultants was returned to federal govt. The federal govt in appreciation of saving this amount paid Rs1.5bil to KPK. Please note the implememtation of projects is the sole duty of the provincial govt and the federal govt provides funds only. Now the PTI on one hand wasted Rs1.5bil on consultants (bribe to its members) their reports are still not in and on the other hand they deprived thr people of KPK of Rs8 bil. This the true story.

  4. Iqra says:

    PTI ZINDABAD…………….Its perfomence in kpk is better than any other province of PAKISTAN…….PTI did following
    INDEPENDENT NAB
    INDEPENDENT POLICE
    ELECTRONIC SYSTEM
    WOMENS CAN GET HELP BY JUST SENDING AN SMS TO POLICE
    EDUCATIONAL REFORMS
    HEALTH REFORMS
    AND MANY OTHER
    SO PTI IS THE BEST

  5. Iqra says:

    1-Imran Khan ne KPK me security agency bnaai ha
    2-mobile court,
    3-pension ghar bethy milti ha,
    4-MNAs k kaarobaar and Rest-housesme free Rehny py pabandi laga di ha

    5-education islaamic kR di ha,
    6-Cancer hospital bn raha ha
    7-online fiR,
    8-anti-corruption unit(Agr kahin corruption ho rhi ho to govt.,police yaPTI ko inform karny py aapko uska 25% mily Ga and corruption khatam ho jay gi) !!!
    9-Eid gift :Eid ka tohfa new law kpk me act to change.. Agr gov ne apka koi kaam time p nhi kiya ap us p casekr skty hy jis sa gov apko fine bhi dy gi or nuqsaan bhi pora kry gi. !!!
    10-Electricity k nay projects
    11-Bus stands international-level k bnaany ka mansooba
    12-Bachun ko school bhejny k liye 1 special aur boht barra mansooba
    13-Shehrun ki Safaai(jesi London andEurope me ha) k liye project
    Ye aisy kaam hain jo PML-N ne 5 saal me b na kiye!
    And on 21 August rirgging k Barry meproofs AA jain gy! Altaf k kaam kar diya ha,jald hi arrest ho jay Ga.Pakistan me b us k khilaaf case kiya tha but hmaary cheap justice ne reject kr diya!!!
    Note:Mujy sirf inky baary me hi pta ha,may be or b hun!!!
    Aur kch log abi b kehte hen k KPK main Kuch Tabdeel nahi Ho raha.

  6. Mohammaad Afzal says:

    I do not agree with this survey report, there are a number of areas where this has been misleading, for instance the tax collection for different tenures is as follows: The best was during Zia’s time 17% of GDP, Musharraf 13%, PPP previous govt 8% and Nawaz present govt it is 8-1/2%.

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