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December 12, 2007
December 12, 2007
Election 2008 Predictions - 11 December 07
Predictions on Elections 2008 by PkPolitics.com
Here is an extremely rough version of candidates from all constituencies. This list is NOT finalized as parties have not released their official lists. The candidates marked in yellow are the strongest candidates in their regions.
This list was built after interviewing hundreds of political analysts and civilians from these constitutions exclusively by pkpolitics.
Download Detailed Document
________________________________________________
Summary of National Assembly Seats:
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188 Responses to “Election 2008 Predictions - 11 December 07”
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Please share only educated views backed by logic. You can share the overall mood within your constituencies and cities in Pakistan.
All irrelevant comments will be removed
Admin
Admin
This is really nice discssion. But i think you are underestimating PPP strength.
I used to live in costiteuncy known previously as NA 97 i think this now NA 126.
I Believe real cotest wil be between PPP and PML N as liaqut baloch is out. Ithink NS FACTOR WILL DECIDE this particular seat.
AOA
Thats Great work,Thanks
Most intresting contest to me, where Javaid hashmi is gona face Shiekoo
just a question to you admin: how many people carried out this survey and how long did it take?
- Qaaf League - 115 Seats
- Benazir Party - 90 Seats
- Molvee Party - 45 Seats
- Nawaz League - 40 Seats
- Altaf Movement - 20 Seats
- ANP - 12 Seats
http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/index.aspx?Issue=NP_LHE&Page=National_PAGE&Date=20071212&Pageno=3&View=1 id=
So Musharraf is the winner as per admin predictions.
Total seats = 261 and 2/3 of 261 = 174 seats the magic number for Mush to get all legitimacy.
Benazir 64 Q 64 Fazlu 15 MQM 19 Pagra 6 Sherpao 2 Ind 17 = 187
13 more seats then required.
BB next prime minister Mush president and Iftikhar Chaudhry (history).
End of the story.
NS…..do you have anything to say now? Please don’t tell me that BB will go with you.
My educated guess which I posted in another thread earlier today:
NA (272 seats)
1) PPP = 90-95
2) PMLN = 65-70
3) PMLQ = 55-60
4) MQM = 12-14
5) JUIF = 20-25 (including fata)
6) ANP = 4-6
Rest will go to smaller parties plus independents backed by different parties
punjab (297 seats)
1) PMLN=100-110
2) PPP=70-80
3) PMLQ=70-80
sindh (130 seats)
1) PPP=70-75
2) MQM=25-30
3) PMLQ&F=10-15
4) PMLN=1-2
nwfp (99)
1) PMLN=20-25
2) JUI=20-25
3) PPP=5-10
4) PMLQ&PPP(SP)=10-15
5) ANP=8-12
baluchistan (its anybody’s guess)
moderation again??? do we have a right to say what we think? or you want us to say what you wanna hear?
My MBA from the UK tells me that we do not need to guess. There are very reliable ways that can be adopted to find out what the results will be (read any research skills book). A questionnaire from 600 - 800 people can give us an accurate picture about the party position across the country. I know most of the Pakistanis may think it unreliable but these methods are scientifically proven.
There is a catch. That survey will not reveal any rigging by King party. But then we can use those survey results to launch a movement against rigging.
I thought we are with the people who are not participating the elections, what is the point of even discussing this elections?
Stallin once said about the elections that
To determine the result of elections dont see how many votes one get just see who r counting those votes
@ democratic pakistani
in NA-126, even in 2002 when NS was not there, NS supported liaqat Baluch ( his own vote bank is not even 10000 here) got 44000 and PPP candidate got 14000 votes. So there was a big big difference and even now PPP are not counting on this seat any way. They know this is not the area to work on.
@ Kami
your idea of survey is good but i think we already have a detailed analysis constituencywise, so a random survey will not give much accurate guestimate.
I would make my educated guess and say that
the parties would will national seats like this
PPP = 47%
PML N = 25%
PML Q = 20%
MQM = 3%
MMA = 4%
others = 1%
Idrees Bajwa-Mir Hussain-Firdaous baigam from Bajwat Sialkot, you are predicting the winner be Idrees Bajwa is not digestable, Coz PPP vote bank is intact & league vote bank would be distributed between Q & N, for last so many times Mir Hussain is winning from here even last time at Qs ticket.
Would you elaborate the logic of prediction?
also I would like to add that PPP and the PML(PML N before it was broken ) were equally powerful. Now however, the PML (N and Q) vote bank would be split specially in their heartland of punjab and PPP would take advantage of it and would win half the punjab seats, most of the sindh seats. hence PPP would lead on the national front.
@Asif
in 2002, (when NS was not in Pakistan, not even taking part in campaign remotely), Idrees Bajwa(district president of PMLN) lost to amir hussain by only 1500 votes ( 52378 vs 50761), while PPP canidate got only 25329 votes and was not in the contest in this way.
PPP vote here is strengthend becos of more AWAN brathery votes, Amir Hussain is facing some problems becos Viru brothers are underhand opposing him.
For Idrees Bajwa, things are better as NS is here and locally he has gained support than losing.
Amir Hussain could not succeed to get river bridge even in the area even after many promises, so no mega project slogan also there.
Also PMLN has better alignment with provinc
ial candidates while others have tried to adjsut outsdiers form party.
I donot wanna boast, but once on this forum like about 3-4 months ago I said one thing that the elections gonna be three way split b/w Nawaz Sharif, Benazir and Musharraf - and that is what it seems like gonna be guys.
Muhahahaha! The prediction is true!
So Mush wins, isn’t this mush’s win that we all are now thinking of elections and not about the Imprisoned judiciary, anyways, BB will be the new but weak PM, PML-Q a strong opposition with MQM and NS will be seen frying fishes at the Food street of Lahore.
I don’t think Nawaz will take majority of seats , instead it I think it will be PPP. I say this because here is what i think will happen.
Sindh - MQM, PPP, Pir Pagarah
Balochistan - PPP, PML Q, PML N
NWFP - Maulana Diesel, PPP, ANP
Punjab- PML N, PPP, PML Q ; these three will have a tremendous fight amongst themselves in Punjab and its tough to predict who comes on top.
PPP has presence in all 4 provinces so I think they will have an edge over nawaz….it will be very interesting.
I just hope and pray that the maulana brigade gets thrown out of NA and PA.
AOA,
For NA 115,admin mentioned about PMLQ Naseer Khan. As for I know about this constituency (I m residing there); position of Indipendent lady Sumera Yasir is very strong. She independently contested elections last time and was runner up and behind from Naseer Khan for only 3000 votes and this time her vote bank has increased a lot. So I will say if you have some correspondence in this constituency, u can highlight the candidate after corroboration (may be I m wrong).
My guess is the three major parties with decreasing number of seats after elections will be
1. Q League (Most seats because of rigging).
2. PPP (Jiyala vote bank is still intact).
3. N League (Third because their vote bank is fractured because their refusal to boycott)
Where is Ghulam Mustafa Khar?
Great Work!
Does ANYONE know about the 2 BOMB blasts at Hamza Model School in Satelite Town, Rawalpindi ?
It seems that all such news is being hidden while anything that happens on the other side of the Indus river-( Frontier) is being given a lot of emphasis
NA-56 Lota (Fresh) Vs Lota (Stale)
@asif
I think the Stale lota will win.
Hi Admin!
May I ask following:
1- What was the criterion used for the predictions.
2- Did you count for the changes in political affiliations of the local groups?
I think your predictions are entirely based on personal political bias with no truth of ground realities. Should you like, I can debate you on constituency to constituency basis for the entire country. My arguments will be based on factual ground realities, past results, and support trends in every constituency. I will urge you to retrieve this trend and use the candidate list of Dec. 16th. to speculate. This reflects political, academic, and intellectual immaturity if not dishonesty. By the way, I predicted few things on your website. All of those came true. I predicted that NS will be sent back on his first attempt. That was true. I predicted that PMLN could not gather even 2000 people at NS first attempt. That was true. I predicted BB will have at least 200,000 people for her reception. That was close to reality. I predicted that with BB insistence NS will be back prior to next election. That happened to be true. I predicted that IK will be handed over to police by the student wing of his spiritual leader (this one was not on this web site), that happened to be true.
Should you like, I can contribute as a writer or argue with you on predictions of upcoming elections on constituency basis.
All those hypocrates and selfish so called politicians are back to support a Dictator.
Forget about these calculations. Its silly. Do you think Musharaf declared elections without HOME WORK
The winners and loosers list is on his table as well as the TRUE calculations of SEATS.
He is a COMMONDO with a wonderful team of pakistani political EXPERTS, agencies and strong BACKING of US.
Aamir
i vow i shall give charity comprising my 2 months salary if sheikhoo loses from his 2 constituencies.
@amir
you sumed it up really well..
but since ns is taking part i think ns supproters are getting excited..but that wouldnt last long…he will regret participating..
u guies think that mush who refused the SC decision and kicked NS back on sep 10th will give him as many seats as you mentioned…..mush is a beghairet and dont pretend to be nice either….so expect a shocker for NS…
My earlier comments are in moderation. You claim to be supporter of democracy and rule of law. The first principle of either is to engage in sensible arguments to develop consensus. The respect for intelligent voice even coming from the ones we do not agree 100% should be the first step. If my earlier comments require moderation then you must be the follower of intolerant leaders of Tora Bora.
Hello,
May I ask following:
1- What was the criterion used for the predictions.
2- Did you count for the changes in political affiliations of the local groups?
I think your predictions are entirely based on personal political bias with no truth of ground realities. Should you like, I can debate you on constituency to constituency basis for the entire country. My arguments will be based on factual ground realities, past results, and support trends in every constituency. I will urge you to retrieve this trend and use the candidate list of Dec. 16th. to speculate. This reflects political, academic, and intellectual immaturity if not dishonesty. By the way, I predicted few things on your website. All of those came true. I predicted that NS will be sent back on his first attempt. That was true. I predicted that PMLN could not gather even 2000 people at NS first attempt. That was true. I predicted BB will have at least 200,000 people for her reception. That was close to reality. I predicted that with BB insistence NS will be back prior to next election. That happened to be true. I predicted that IK will be handed over to police by the student wing of his spiritual leader (this one was not on this web site), that happened to be true.
Should you like, I can contribute as a writer or argue with you on predictions of upcoming elections on constituency basis.
My fellow country men
I am not going to give you exact numbers, however let me tell you that you all will be surprised.
believe it or not, PML-N will be in majority (because there is a reason, why I let him back ) PMLQ and PPP will run for 2nd position.
see my innocent country men…this way I will kill two..three…four birds with one stone. by doing this…i will further divide the opposition. (I don’t like NS and BB talking to each other) BB will scream rigging rigging…but no one will listen…because the other opposition leader has won.
This is my game plan. I think admin has posted it correctly under “Summary of National Assembly Seats”
Following are results based on my calculations. Calculations were based on 2002 results where seats with less than 10000 vote margin were considered based on factors like
a) MMA split
b) Nawaz’s return and its impact in his strongholds
c) Winning/No.2 candidate switching party
d) Backlash to PPP in urban centers of central and northern Punjab
e) Boycott of APDM parties
Disclaimers are
a) A massive anti MMA wave in Frontier can change the results and might give gains to PPP S, PML N, PPP and ANP.
b) Country wide seat adjustments between parties.
c) A strong pro-PPP wave in Southern Punjab and Sindh.
d) Massive rigging.
e) A better PPP showing than expected in North and Central Punjab.
Margin of Error is /-15%
Results are:
PML - Q (including PML-F, PML-Z and NA): 42-57
PML - N: 42-57
PPP: 89-102
ANP: 0-5
PPP Sherpao: 2-2
MQM: 16-16
Total Seats: 272
Here’s a brief snapshot of Pindi District.
Favored Likely Leaning Toss-Up
NA-48 Yes
NA-49 PPP
NA-50 PMLN
NA-51 PPP
NA-52 PMLN
NA-53 PMLQ
NA-54 PPP
NA-55 PMLQ
NA-56 Yes
Favored:Clear Front Runner
Likely: Front Runner
Leaning:Emerging as Front Runner
Toss-Up No Front Runner
This is not accurate prediction of 2008 elections but a current snapshot, I will share with you the predictions after Dec. 16th.
@Raja
I think we should not be too hard on @dmin as he is just tryng to keep the debate lively; personally i think our main issue is judiciary these fradulent elections are an old and favorite game of the army. After reading ur comments, it seems u do have an admirable analytical mind, so what would u predict now, what is going to happen after the emergency is lifted?
NA 48 = Toss-Up
NA 49 = PPP Likely
NA 50 = PMLN Leaning
NA 51 = PPP Favorite
NA 52 = PMLN Likely
NA 53 = PMLQ Likely
NA 54 = PPP Likely
NA 55 = PMLQ Favorite
NA 56 = Toss-Up
@ zenith
One of the leading moral philosopher Kant used the term “Reciprocity.” The term was used to refer to treat others the way you want to be treated yourself by others. I have no personal issue with Admin. He wants to question every one but hates to be questioned himself. That is a contradiction which is true reflective of Pakistani society. We all want equal treatment for all by the law as long as equality favors us. If we want Mush to take criticism and not ban Electronic Media then we should respect the criticism on us by others as well. That’s all I am trying to convey to him. I am neither 100% right nor can I prove that my comments are 100% right but am willing to listen to others with open ears and eyes despite their criticism of me. We can not teach Mush of morality, ethics, and democracy if we can not accept the same standards for ourselves.
Please share only educated views backed by logic. You can share the overall mood within your constituencies and cities in Pakistan.
All irrelevant comments will be removed
…………………………………..
Hi
I whish u r right but this so called survay of urs is nothing but just a wishful thinking.
1. You have overlooked the ISI factor(rigging)
2. According to this many pro mush r gonna lose and pervaiz elahi wont even be elected as MP.
MY not very educated view is that PML-N is only gonna get 30-35 seats. There is a chance NS is only gonna win 77 seats if U become Caretaker PM.
I am from NA106 it use to be some other NA before. I am kind of surprise to see PPP being the strongest in that region because it’s a Muslim Leage area but i guess things have changed a lot.
I hope U r gonna tell us that on what basis u came up with ur Yellow candidates. Did u check the previous record or did u get the feed back from all over pakistan including FATA?
If NS wins HE is gonna make us slaves of Saudis and i wud rather be an American slave than a Saudi one. NS time there was so much freedom of expression that JUNOON (a music group) was not allowed to perform on PTV.
Pakistan never Changes.
@ RAZA
You make an excellent point. We expect government to change but the crucial change should come from us. Are we willing to accept the law equal for all citizens? We answer yes until we are not the part of the privileged class.
The fundamental declaration must be that all humans are created equal and all of us have the right to life, liberty, and pursuit of our dreams within the consensually developed rules, laws, regulations, ethics, and morality standards. Unless and until we accept that as a starting point for all irrespective of religion, ethnicity, caste, or creed, we can not develop a society where governing regime will tolerate difference of opinion as a legitimate principle.
Rigging or no rigging
Fair or no fair
Partial or no partial
Transparent or no transparent
Whatever you call it…..! and
Mark my words on your calenders…..
“Q league is going to win and Pervez Elahi is the next prime minister”
which part of this statement dont you understand???
All of you guys are just pseudo intellectuals who do not understand the dynamics of the politics of tne banana republic of the land of pures.
Salam,
For NA-239 i think the likely winner would be Kunwar Qutubuddin Khan instead of Qadir Patel of the PPPP. Kunwar Qutubuddin has great support in the area and he has previously defeated Munwar Hassan of the Jamat-e-Islami from karachi who himself was an extremely strong candidate. Kunwar Qutubuddin is being supported by MQM and he has strong support from the Pakhtoon corner( who are large in number) of that area in karachi. Finally, even though he is the chief organizer of that PML-F, he is contesting the election as an independent like before. For me Mr.Kunwar is the favourite to win from Karachi I. Please revise your prediction if possible.
Cheers!
@ Naheed
I marked your words, please mark my words as well, Anyone else except him will be the prime minister. Future is obvious to observers, only politically blind can not see it.
http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1100313975&Issue=NP_KHI&Date=20071211
If elections are held today:
NA-198 PPP Favorite
NA-199 PPP Favorite
NA-200 PPP Favorite
NA-201 Toss-Up
NA-202 PPP Leaning
NA-203 PML Leaning
NA-204 PPP Favorite
NA-205 PPP Favorite
NA-206 PPP Favorite
NA-207 PPP Favorite
NA-208 PPP Favorite
NA-209 PPP Favorite
NA-210 Toss-Up
NA-211 PML Leaning
NA-212 PPP Leaning
NA-213 PPP Favorite
NA-214 PPP Favorite
NA-215 PPP Favorite
NA-216 Toss-Up
NA-217 PPP Favorite
NA-218 PPP Favorite
NA-219 MQM Favorite
NA-220 MQM Favorite
NA-221 PPP Favorite
NA-222 PPP Favorite
NA-223 PPP Favorite
NA-224 Toss-Up
NA-225 PPP Favorite
NA-226 PPP Favorite
NA-227 PPP Favorite
NA-228 Toss-Up
NA-229 PML Favorite
NA-230 PML Favorite
Punjab National assembly constitutencies
http://www.ecp.gov.pk/content/docs/National_Punjab.pdf
i think GOVT is going to give full support to PPP in rigging the polls.
interier sindh they can win without rigging.
another areas of pakistan…definetly they need GOVT support to win …thats the part of the deal…
i can see after election MUSHARRAF would be the strongest person…
BB in sindh,ALTAF in karachi,NS in south punjab,chudhris in north punjab,mullahas in NWFP and ASFANDYAR WALI KHAN IN bluchistan…
that would be a hung parlaiment …
planned by MUSH ….
so there would be no consensus on any issue in future …and at the end of the day ,FINAL order would come from a CIVILIAN MUSHARRAF BHAI …..
Raja
Your breakdown of the seats confirm my fears that you are living in a FOOLS paradise.
Well with the election, I agree with some posts here that NS well be in opposition, BB will be PM and Mush will be President. So 2002 repeated.
Imran khan and CJ will be history. All over and very well planned by US, BB and Mush.
I gotta tell you something if anybody is listening……..
We always vote enblock for Mian Nawaz Sharif since his enterance into politics as we happen to live in the same constituency from where he always is the candidate. We have more than 50 mohalla votes (mostly Doctors, Lawyers, Professors, Engineers and Business owners, you may wish to call them representatives of civil society) always supporting and voting in his favor. Not that he is any genius or any extra ordinary politician but because he always kept a check on Benazir party’s loot maar and her anti state rehtoric and objectionable activities. Now that he has joined hands with her and her peoples party to bring this country down to its knees in the name of democracy, all of us with heavy hearts have decided last night to NEVER EVER vote for him unless he denounces PPP and once again stand tall as custodian of “Nazria-e-Pakistan and become leader of Pakistan Muslim League and not a B team of Benazir.
Its interesting however the predictions should be revised after the final list of candidates is announced by the Ellection commission (the second l in the election commission is agencies miriculous DANDA which provides ligitimacy to the results in the post election night)
Hoping for the best for our future generations
Surely the people who are against the involvement of serving generals in politics should win
NA-74 = yes Dr. Muhmammal Afzal Khan Dhandla of PML-N is likely to win. Last time he got 74000 votes aganist Ch. Shujaat. Where Ch. Shujaat never even came to this constituency only Rasheed Akbar Niwani run his compaign and with heavy rigging CH. Shujaat won.
Those who think NS is supporting PPP need to think again. It is only a tactics to handle many problems at the moment.If you read between the lines then he is tackling Q-League, army, molvies, PPP all. Q league wanted him to stay away from elections but that did not happen. At times one has to choose between Target No.1 and Target No.2 and then go for it one by one.
AA announced boycott of elections
http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/dec2007-daily/12-12-2007/update.htm#21
BREAKING NEWS
AITAZAZ HAS OFFICIALLY WITHDRAWN FROM LAHORE SEAT AND SAYS HE IS NOT GOING TO CONTEST. He is going to withdraw his papers.
this article for those who who think NS has done wrong
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/story/2007/12/071212_political_anaysis_si.shtml
I know some constituencies and I think the prediction is totally opposite. In Haripur, Ome r Ayub khan would be winner,no matter how Nawaz sharif is popular in Hazara. Similary Amanullah khan jadoon would give a tough fight to Sardar Mehtaab Abbassi. In NA-20 Mansehra ,no body ever defeated Sardar Yusuf or his son because they get all votes from their biradri irrespective of political affiliation .Though last time competition was tough and Tirmzi(whom i voted for) who fought election for the first time as independent candidate though backed by Army cirlces(as he is retired general) and Syed Qasim Shah(a prominent but corrupt personality in Mansehra politics) lost only by 1000 or some votes. Any how it depends upon how religious vote swings and Tirmizi can’t win easily because his votes from Syed tribe are divided between MMA candidate and himself.Had I been there, I would have boycotted the election along with my family and relatives.
Though I expect tough fight but no body can declare now who would be winner.
@yaqub - I agree with you - at the moment NS wants to first settle scores with Q league and wants to teach them a lesson. He says he cannot do much and cannot participate in elections so it would be sweet revenge for him if he manages to annhilate Q league - and that is he after now.
His strategy is
NA KHAYLAIN GAY AUR NA HI KHAYLNEY DEIN GAY.
Vote for NS and annhilate Pervez
Muharraf and Pervez Elahi - this should be the official slogan
Can you or any one else start documenting methods of election rigging in Pakistan. I assume that all parties have done this act of rigging in the past, so PMLN has ample experience in this “discipline”. It would be better to list itemized practical fraud and not any hypothetical speculations.
I start with mine.
- Sudden announcement of elections while serious constitutional and legal questions are still unresolved, opposition leaders in jails. (Not enough time for preparation
- Pre-poll voter list chopping by Musharraf’s sElection Commission
- Disqualification of candidates by Musharraf Kangaroo Courts
look at this..very funny..
http://nawaiwaqt.com.pk/urdu/daily/dec-2007/12/cartoon.php
@ amm
NO body said that these are final results. still few days before fianl lists of candidates and in the mean time there will be many seat adjsutments and many peole changing party tickets etc.
for NA-19, even last time , it was becos of MMA split votes that helped omar ayub to win and there was no smooth sailing for him even in the absence of NS. Other factor is many local nazims changing positions.
I agree that it will be tough fight between Amanulllah jadoon and Sardar mehtab. There was news that amanulla jadoon might ask his son to contest becaus of his health problem. So currently Mehtab abbasi has slight edge and that is status of today.
for NA-20, u already mentioned that how close fight it was last time, PMLN has still to decide the final candidate.
MMA candidate split a lot of votes, both based on brathery and religious voters, this time they cant do it to get 35000 votes. Overall it will be a v close contest and days to come will decide when local major groups will take positions.
Qaaf League - 115 Seats
- Benazir Party - 90 Seats
- Molvee Party - 45 Seats
- Nawaz League - 40 Seats
- Altaf Movement - 20 Seats
- ANP - 12 Seats
These will be most possible outcome because of Govt rigging as per http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/index.aspx?Issue=NP_LHE&Page=National_PAGE&Date=20071212&Pageno=3&View=1
Great News about Aitzaz boycott. This will be the main headline in tomorrow’s newspapers.
@ Anis Mughal
I agree that for NA-115, sumaira yasir is a strong candidate, but last time dofference was 5000.
As Naseer Khan has bene allowed to contest now so will be a tough battle there. Local adjsutments are still to be made on this constituency so current status may change by 16 dec. Currently Naseer is having a slight margin.
Let us explore
What is the difference Between ,Chaydhary Family ,Nawaz sharif and Benazir
Give me the commonalities in terms og
.Political Philosphy
.religious/Secular
. Obedience to the real Masters ,the almai gunda mafia
. Personal Sharafat
.View about Israel
Leave aside supporting the dictator ,all the three have done ,two openly and one by doing but not accepting
@GM
About NA 115
Is samaria yasr the wife of former MPA
I believe is Rasheed ,who was also MP for AK
@Anis Mughal
Are you from Zafarwal or Nonar or from Solehr
@ Ahson,
yes, Yasir rasheed,
which area u r from in this cosntituency?
The whole of Chakwal would vote for Ayaz Amir and no one else. Even now Tahir Iqbal has withdrawn in favour of Ayaz Amir.
Inshallah from Talagang - Pervez Elahi is going to lose badly and Faiz Tamman is going to win hands down.
So NA 60 and 61 are going to PMLN - Inshallah
PPPP—————-131( 15-)
Q LEAGUE————-55( 10-)
N LEAGUE————-40( 5-)
MMA(EXC QAZI)——–22( 5-)
MQM——————21( 3-)
ANP——————11( 2-)
AND I WILL SUGGEST @DMIN TO START ANALYZING EACH CONTITUENCY SO THAT WE CAN GET CLEAR PICTURE.AND THE CANDIDATES U PREDICTED TO WIN THE ELECTIONS R NOT RIGHT UP TO 40%
As per your prediction Faiz Tamman will beat Ch Pervez elahi in NA-61. I belong to that constituency and i must say that at the moment he is the weakest candidate of that constituency. It is just like saying that Ali Ahmed Kurd will beat both Javed Hashmi and Sheikh Rasheed.
Dont forget Faiz tamman got above 101000 votes last time as independent candidate and beating mansoor hayat (then PMLQ candidate)who also got above 76000 votes.
Pervaiz Rlahi chose this seat because of friend of Mounis Elahi, hafiz Ammar Yasir.
Faiz tamman is standing against pervaiz elahi, Mansoor hayat tamman alos infact is against him and any time will officially announce.
Ex-MPA saleem iqbal, tehsil nazim, is the last resort pervaiz elahi is counting on and saleem iqbal himself is waiting for positive response from PMLN leadership after sending his request.
Ghulam Abbas group(district nazim) is no more useful for pervaiz elahi on this seat as firstly for them their own seat is hard to win and also many local nazims have and are changing poositions. Hope this explains the situation.
If you have any specific information abt the are of any major group joining PMLQ, plz do share here.
http://www.jang.net/jm/12-12-2007/pic.asp?picname=1712.gif
@ faisal khan
I think it will be good for all of us if u can share ur comments and views about some constituencies more specifically.
just giving overall seats is nothing more than a TUKKA.
@GM
I agree with you. Sajid is Q friend. Faiz Taman will win as PML N vote will also go to him. People of the area will never vote for Pervez Ellahi.. PARA LIKHA PANJAB.
@GM
Waisay keep faith Sajid will vote for PML N.:-))
@GM
As for as last time is concerned u may know that Sardar Mumtaz tamman and Ghulam abbas supported Faiz Tamman. I would love if Pervez Elahi loses from this constituency but at the moment it is only a wishful thinking. Saleem Iqbal has a vote bank and same is true for Ghulam Abbas. I can not digest this fact that Ghulam Abbas will not be able to openly support Pervez Elahi. In my opinion Ghulam abbas is drawing a new political line in that area and he is trying to make Sardar of Tammans a history. Mansoor Hayat and Sardar Mumtaz will never support Faiz, and how come Saleem Iqbal go against Pervez Elahi when Zahoor anwar is contesting on a Q-ticket?
I second maan
AA boycott news no less than the NS news going for elections.
So put it on the front page.
@ wajid
I will never vote for a candiadate who changed three parties in last 5 years nor i will vote for Q-league
Boycott,Boycott
@Asif
It seems we don’t follow principles but personalities. And this is the main reason we couldn’t have rule of law and real democracy over the last 60 years.
I see most of us who are discussing elections and its results were advocating boycott last week before NS ’s decision to go for elections.
I don’t see any difference between us, being educated people and those “maanga gaama jiaylas” of PPP who follow BB blindly.
@ MYA I am repeating my analysis….. can you or anybody else convince me how NS decision to participate is justified?
So Musharraf is the winner as per admin predictions.
Total seats = 261 and 2/3 of 261 = 174 seats the magic number for Mush to get all legitimacy.
Benazir 64 Q 64 Fazlu 15 MQM 19 Pagra 6 Sherpao 2 Ind 17 = 187
13 more seats then required.
BB next prime minister Mush president and Iftikhar Chaudhry (history).
End of the story.
NS…..do you have anything to say now? Please don’t tell me that BB will go with you.
I would request all of you that we should support those who are fighting for truth, rule of law and real democracy.
Don’t support personalities because of your old affiliation with them.
If a person you have supporting for a long time deceives you should kick him/her at her/his … rather than keep on supporting him blindly otherwise he/she would be called clever and you a stupid person.
Pakistan needs a strong media and a credible judiciary; people like NS and BB are not contesting elections they are settling personal scores with thier adversaries; election is an event it should be given importance , but to a certain extent; the army plays yet another game of holding elections; i can tell u that all of army’s strenght is being utilized for these elections, the other day some children of some airforce officers were injured , by some one, why its just the desparation of the people of NWFP that they have lost so much that they have lost it. it is not related to this topic but the link below describes what will become of pakistan.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=QDAMZChOqSs
First of all, there are 60 more seats addition to 272 seats of NA. These 60 seats belong to women and these seats will also play a major role. In total there are 332 seats in NA. Should we consider these seats as well?
WATCH CAPITAL NEWS ON GEO NEWS NOW
Please check the Election Commission of Pakistan website to verify the no. of seats in NA.
http://www.ecp.gov.pk/content/Order_conduct.html
Here is what newspapers are reporting….
Q: 115 seats
PPP: 90
N: 40
Altaf(Jahnami; bound for hell)20
http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1100314920&Issue=NP_LHE&Date=20071212
DAWN
Pakistan has surprised many muslim nations after voting for israel, in a UN summit. link below
http://dawn.com/2007/12/12/top5.htm
@ FAROOQ
special seats are rewarded on pro rota basis to direct seats, so infact these seats will not make any difference in absolute term.
@ sajid,
i think u r underestimating role of mansoor hayat against pervaiz elahi.
and there is no surprise of any Q league memebr returning ticket and leving party.
In last few days more than 17 people did this.
Even today rana umar nazir from NA-99 returned PMLQ ticekt.
Saifullah brothers (saleem saifullah ws a promient minster in last govt) are having local seat adjsutment with PMLN in lakki Marwat and might contest as independent.
from NA-16, GG jamal return ticket and contesting independent, 2 PMLQ ticket holders returned tickets from multan.
similarly in Bahawalpur 3 ex MNAs leaving PMLQ. in Rajanpur dareshak groupd preferring as independent candidate, Lagahri grp in deep troubel and fighting for their survival in their area (although mostly by their own relatives).
so in short in next few days a news regarding peole leaving PMLQ will b coming.
@Asif the site is called pkpolitics.com and elections is what politics is about, the lawyers movement is a good cause getting coverage all around but the biggest political news in Pakistan today is the upcoming elections, every one knows they will be rigged but they are going to take place hence this site should keep this as the main focus. As NS said if there is a new parliament then the top of his agenda is restoration of the CJ so it is not that much different of an objective then the lawyers. Just the modus-operendi is different.
@asif
Just keep this in mind that NO movement in the world can be successful without the support of masses. Be it so called “civil society” movement or any other made up movement. It will always need support from common people on street, otherwise it is destined to fail no matter what.
GEO has special episode with Iftikhar ahmed (of jawab Deh) and started district wise Analysis of all seats.
Next programme on GEO is capital Talk, and the topic is Manefesto of PPP and PMLQ.
so what u think abt GEO, hamid mir and Iftikhar ahmed now??
But one thing is sure, even if u dont like it, GEO will NOT allow any one to have a propaganda agaisnt GEO and no other channel willl even allow.
Its shameful that some people are not showing tolerance and understanding and realising that besides having the right of not allowing the messages against the website, u r being allowed.
Some peole are jumping without using their mind for a single moment when their comemnt is on moderation.
moderation is NOT MANUAL, rather clearing the comments under moderation is manual.
there might be many words to filter comments and its jsut matter of time when reasnable commets are released.
Peole who call them self EDUCATED dont have patience to understand that?
Self accountablity is first step before pointing fingers to others.
If u cant appreciate some ones efforts, keeping your mouth shut sure will help then.
@Farooq Ahmed
the women seats are distributed proportionally to the number of seats parties gain on regular 272 seats. therefore they will just be add-on to whatever each party gets and will not change the overall party position in NA
@ Ali Pir
I dont know which area u r talking abt?
Kunwar Qutbuddin did not defeat munawwar hassan from NA-239 ( both were not contesting there.
Also PPP lost this seat to MMA candidate( who switched sides on presidential elections.
first MMA is already split, MQM is having their own candidate and in favourable conditiosn for MQM, he is alsoa stirng candidate now.
JI is not participating in this elections, ex MNA of PMLN Ejaz shafi , another candidate is also not there ( he expired soe time ago.
SO currently PPP is in better position, but based on scale of rigging, MQM may snatch this seat.
@all boycotters
please don’t waste your time in convincing people to boycott at least on this thread. btw why you all guys are even inerested in visiting this thread when you are boycotting elections.
It is very naive approach to use a broad brush and cast all politician aside, label them power hungry and corrupt. Many of these politicians are member of so called “civil society”. There are many respected members within every party. Q-league has S.M Zafar, whose integrity and honesty is known across the board. Amin Fahim most definitely is not power hungry. Aitizaz Ahsan himself is a politician and very loyal to BB. Chaudary Nisar in PML-N doesn’t fit the bill of power hungry and corrupt label.
@Azeem
There are reasonable people in PPP and PML-N, but sadly they are too few. Most of them are traditional power hungry robbers.
/Saqib
One thing I like about NS, contrary to general perception, is his tolerance for other point of view. he is willing to accommodate people who are surely going to differ with him on many issues. we can see in his candidate list that many of the high profile people are given tickets and expected to win, like ayaz amir (cannot be bogged down by anyone, read his columns in dawn or watch counter point on ary), javed hashmi (we all know how hard this nut is to crack), ahsan iqbal (i saw him many a times criticizing NS on different issues), khawaja saad rafiq to name a few. We all know in case NS forms a govt, these people will be ministers for sure.
misfit politicians
Javed hashmi,ch nisar are misfit in pml-n
raza rabbani,aitezaz ahsan are misfit in pppp
mushahid hussain is misfit in pmlq
i think aa and raza rabani will leave pppp sooner or later …same i hope for JH…
they shld all jion pti….
I think one posisbility is that an unusually high number of independents might win this time. This will help respond to the cry of rigging that BB might raise. The official response might be: there was no rigging as independents and not pro-government candidates have won. After the results are announced a large number of these independents may then join PML(Q) to support Mush.
Tipu
@Imran Malik
What do you know about Ch. Nisar?:-))
Please feel free to discuss or abuse anything you want on any other post, but I requested specifically not to discuss irrelevant comments on this specific post.
There is an ongoing debate on this post related to candidates and constituencies and most of the participant would prefer this specific thread to remain focused.
I can’t help anyone if he is still complaining about his comments being removed from this post.
Admin
@WAJID
he looks pretty decent guy ,the way he talks and the way he presents himself in the media exudes honesty and make you believe him…
is there any thing fishy that you know ab him??
i know he was petrolium minster in ns first govt and then some other close to pm post in 2nd govt….his bro is general and he was responsible for seuggesting ns on mush’s selection …..
any thing else you want to tell?
@Imran Malik
He does every thing which any other feudal does.
Please don’t count him with people like JH, Saad Rafiq, Ahsan Iqbal, Khawaja Asif.
I am his voter and supporter both and cannot say more than that:-))
We won both National and provincial seats in 2002 and will win again InshaAllah for Nawaz Sharif
@wajid
its pretty vague answer..
i like him more than ahsan iqbal (an ex jamati from texilla university) and saad rafiqe (a jazbaati becchcha)….
whatever ive seen of him in the media .i think he always talk sense and talk confidently …his body language is always of a truthful person…..
i dont know him personally so only judge him through media..
We should not blindly criticise anyone just for nothing. What wrong admin has done by opening a thread where we can possibly discuss the situation in different constituencies? I live in Netherlands and i know this sight is very popular among Pakistanis living here becas they remain in touch with the political situation in Pakistan. We can have different views but we should never jump to any conclusion or we should not criticise someone by blaming that he has political motives.
I am in favor of Boycott but what if the whole nation is going in to polls? Sooner or later all the major electronic media chanels will broadcast the election Campaign. Would it be wise enough to blame Geo,ARY or Aaj tv then? If i do not like it, it does not mean that i should blame everybody taking part in elections. It is my right to Boycott and i should also give everybody else the right to decide at his own. If we believe on true democracy we must respect the views of others but please if someone has a different opinion do not say that he is doing this becas of this or that……
@Yousuf
Dear Brother
The issue is that we are just bashing on Admin a lot which is quite unfair.
See today all the channels including GEO, ARY, AAJ, Dawn are covering the elections as these are the days of elections. That doesn’t mean these channels are against Judges or lawyers or civil society.
Please express your views about any issue but we should make up own minds and start calling the entire site as pro or anti of any one.
@Imran Malik
Well in private I might have been able to put more light but not here. Its a pulic forum.
Can anybody predict about the political situation of Attock District?
I would love to hear from someone belonging to attock
@Imran Malik
I think you don’t know Mushahid Hussain much. He was given popularity by NS. And remeber a senator has a far less weightage than a National Assembly member. He has no mandate. He has been selected by his party. He has immense knowledge and he can justify everything through logic. But unfortunately his presence in government and supporting arrival of NS through media make no sense at all. Also he always say like Sheikh Rasheed that Geo should be allowed on cable, but either they have no say in the government or they are pretty decent actors.
@bechari-awaam
I would just say one thing to the electioners, allow our leaders(lawyers&civil society) to move freely like the BB&Bhaalu and then see where the masses go.
one way road & saying that theres no traffic from the opposite direction. What can I say………
Remember, Q-league would face the worst defeat and this would be evident from the rallies in the coming 3 weeks. So those who think Muslim League vote will split are in fact wrong. It was shown as split in 2002 elections, but in fact it was not. Do you think people could have voted for people like Wasi Zafar?
Remember PPP might get the shock of their life in Sind. The previous chief minister Sind has divided the constituency in a manner that PPP seats would be reduced. He himself admitted this in an interview last year I suppose.
@ Sajid,
In Attock , chaudhray family is trying to have qabza of all seats.
they gave ticket to Amin Aslam on NA-57, pervaiz elahi himself on NA-58 (so mail Allah yar ex MNA is out) and Waseem gulzar(husband of eman waseem) on NA-59. Eman waseem aslo filed papers form NA-59 and ealrier plan was to contest from NA-59.
then chaudries played game and she withdrew papers from NA-59 but is still independent candidate from NA-57.
Amin Aslam has now relasied the game and will return the ticekt soon.
PMLN has storng candidate on NA-57 ( sheikh aftab ahmed) and this time no split of votes by MMA and on NA-58,also with support of mailk allah yar khan, sohail khan is in gud psostion and in coming days when thngs will settle it will become more clear.
NA-59, however waseem gulzar is still strong becos opponets have not yet finalised their positions.
this is jsut a brief overview, if u have soemthign to share, do comment plz.
there r chances of local adjsutment of ppp and pmln also.
@GM
Sorry a bit late ,I am from Zafarwal ,I Know this Guy Rashid .
Are you from Narowal or sialkot
@ Imran Malik
I never supported Mush and will never do that. But u may have to say in a couple of days that Geo or ARY are also supporting Mush becas they will be having a coverage of election Campaign
@sajid
yes geo and ary are mini ptv now…
Come what may would hate to see Maulana diesel, Sheeda tulli and choris of gujrat in assemblies again, but, I guess I am asking for too much.
Elections are just illegimtae
Everyone making contribution in any way is participating in a process iniated by a Illegmate person
This farce has nothing to do with elections but all to do with SELECTIONS. All those who think they are debating elections are being fooled. Please open your eyes before it is too late. Mush has already said that you people will cry foul WHEN you loose. Bear in mind WHEN you loose and not IF you loose.
OPEN YOUR EYES otherwise you will be seen as pigeons who closes their eyes when the cat (MUSH the cheater) comes.
BOYCOTT THE ELECTIONS!!!!!!!!!!!
/Saqib
admin
Aitezaz Ahsan is our hero, please put him on front page
@admin
It would be good to add another link to post comments apart from the prediction of election results. This blog should relate more to candidates and their constituencies then comments on the elections itself.
I know people including me are forced to write non related comments here since there is no other link available. Whereas this link would be exist until the election results are out, it should be placed with the above tabs. The title could be ‘Expectations 2008′, or ‘Likely Winners 2008′.
It is always good to include an 8am PST news from Aaj TV or any other channel or any other breaking news after that. Comments should be enabled for either of the news, but not both.
this would also help in duplicating the comments people who think they have not been read by the visitors who are currently on some other blog.
For instance, you could have combined the comments for the statements made by Mush and Chief Justice at one place.
Regards
@admin
read… this would also help avoiding duplication of comments by people
The title could be ‘Predictions 2008′.
Following are results based on my calculations. Calculations were based on 2002 results where seats with less than 10000 vote margin were considered based on factors like
a) MMA split
b) Nawaz’s return and its impact in his strongholds
c) Winning/No.2 candidate switching party
d) Backlash to PPP in urban centers of central and northern Punjab
e) Boycott of APDM parties
Disclaimers are
a) A massive anti MMA wave in Frontier can change the results and might give gains to PPP S, PML N, PPP and ANP.
b) Country wide seat adjustments between parties.
c) A strong pro-PPP wave in Southern Punjab and Sindh.
d) Massive rigging.
e) A better PPP showing than expected in North and Central Punjab.
Margin of Error is /-15%
Results are:
PML - Q (including PML-F, PML-Z and NA): 42-57
PML - N: 42-57
PPP: 89-102
MMA: 19-37
ANP: 0-5
PPP Sherpao: 2-2
MQM: 16-16
Total Seats: 272
This farce has nothing to do with elections but all to do with SELECTIONS. All those who think they are debating elections are being fooled. Please open your eyes before it is too late. Mush has already said that you people will cry foul WHEN you loose. Bear in mind WHEN you loose and not IF you loose.
OPEN YOUR EYES otherwise you will be seen as pigeons who closes their eyes when the cat (MUSH the cheater) comes.
BOYCOTT THE ELECTIONS!!!!!!!!!!!�
100% AGREE
only bc NS is taking part in elections …does that make the elections all the legitimacy and significance???
@ZK
Well its gonna be sth like u said.
Yahan per bahut achi kichri pak rahi. har kui apnay apnay halkay ki khabrain dey raha hay nice.
To Admin:
pkpolitics.com should set up an election cell. It should appoint people for each NA consitutency and make them report the happenings from overthere.
A good news from karachi.
All opposition parties for a new alliance including PPP,ANP, Sunni Tehrik,MMA etc.
i was thinkign that there might b walkover for MQM but now there will b real contest on many seats and even JI voters will particiapate.
Mush inaugarated the sialkot airport, the people who financed it were non-government people, they specially requested Mush to come and inaugurate it, shame on them, couldn’t they just find anyone from the govt, other than mush? everyone wants to feel important, I hope the sialkot airport remains safe and sound, especially after Mush’s visit.
By predicting and forecasting about the sham elections, we are no better than third class parties who are taking part in it.
Can anyone seriously consider these elections, held by illegimate, traitors under the constitution condemed to death by hanging.
And is there is any politician who is taking part worthy of running a school let alone country?
Very shrewd move by Admin, try to make peoples mind toward election since NS announced for election and bringing NS as a top contender to show his (NS) decision is right, for going into elections.
http://nawaiwaqt.com.pk/urdu/daily/dec-2007/13/columns3.php
a GOOD ANALYSIS BY AFTAB IQBAL - how BB and NS are joining together to make sure the ministers of Musharraf get the worst defeat of their lifetime.
@Realtome
Please dont read too much in all this - ad min is not shrewd - he cannot do anything - people here are more clever than him
If you dont like it then why dont u give your expert analysis. We would appreciate it. Rather than just criticising someone - give constructive views.
@ C husssain, Realtome
I agree with C Hussain, we must do constructive debate and shud show that this forum is for educated people who can debate with some logic and reason.
I think apart from question of boycott or no boycott, being educated about eelctions and election process,activites,rules and specialaly in this way about different areas of our beloved country Pakistan is really worth.
I appreciate admin efforts in this regard.
we should stop thinking like that” everything i like is GOOD and everything i dislike is BAD”.
Hanif Abbasi Lota
Zahid Hamid Lota
Sajda Nayyar Lotee
Please share the Lotas & Lotees of sham elections too.
@asif
firdaus aashique ..lotee
she was in pmlq but few months ago she jioned pppp…she is from sialkot …ch amir hussain’s area…
btw …what about zahid hamid and sajida nayyar ..have they switched loyalties…
@Asif
Lota is one who wins elections on ticket of PARTY A and after winning, s/he joins PARTY B for some ministry or other benifits.
Before elections, any one can join any party.
So they are NOT lotas in my opinion.
is pkpolitics shutting down??
WHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please tell us, we want to KNOW!!!
Read this
http://express.com.pk/images/NP_LHE/20071213/Sub_Images/1100315701-2.gif
i am not suppose to comment because the country i live has no democarecy as well.
But as long as i am a pakistani i would like to say only one thing that we as a people of pakistan are fools following such politicians again and again.
who ever wins and who ever loses will make no difference at all because the poor will always be poor and power will stay at it is.
our country requires a real revolution to bring some change and history speaks fellows that revolutions seeks blood.
may allah keep our nation safe but my prediction is that the coming time under such leaders is going to be very dangerous for us.
specially this musharraf ( sala ek general) besharmi ki limits cross kar gaya hai.if i was on his place(nauzu billah)i would have commit suicide.
HE HAS RUINED THE COUNTRY BUT STILL HE SAYS THAT HE HAS DONE A LOT AND EVERY THING IS JUST OK.
BENAZIR(ANGAREZOUN KI NAJAEZ AULAD) HAS RUINED THE NAME OF HER FATHER.
FAZULUL REHMAN IS NOT REHMAN HE IS SHETAN.. IF YOU PEOPLE LOOK AT HIS FACE YOU WILL GET TO KNOW THE MEANING OF MUNAFIQ.
NAWAZ SHARIF SAB SPEAKS ABOUT THAT PAKISTAN KO BACHANA HAI,I WANT TO ASK HOW? CAN HE ALONE SAVE THE PAKISTAN?SAB BAKWAS HAI.
THEY ARE ALL POLITICIANS.
ONLY IMRAN KHAN SAB UNTILL NOW SEEMS TO BE REAL MAN.
MAY ALLAH GIVE ME MORE COURAGE TO STAND FRONT OF SUCH RULERS.
I can tell about NA-99 where Rana Nazeer Ahmad, Ex Minister join PML(N), he is favourite anyway.
i am not wasting my time in calculations …
calculations,fractions,break ups has been already done by mush aides for the coming election results …..
dear brothers
dont bother youself doing so !
Its high time for civil society, media, students to applaud the stance by the people sacrificing their vote bank and joined the movement of free judiciary. If we dint support them this time, nobody will dare to take risk ever in future. Plz understand this point because its consequences are immense.
A good article by BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/miscellaneous/story/2007/12/071212_hassan_column_fz.shtml
A time is coming when people of Pakistan would demand elections under auspicious of UN because they wont trust army or judicary to be ale to contduct free and fair elections
PM Somroo has got PML canddiate arrested in Jacobabad and he is being tortured there because he had dared to stand against his nephew and sister in elections. He was arrested the very day after Somroo became caretaker PM.
In Gjurat - Shujaat Hussain brother has formed a gang on pattern of MQM called Wajahat force and they are intimidating other candidates.
These elections would be nothing but sham elections.
Use of CNIC clearly shows that goverment wants to deranchise a large section of people of Pakistan. It was CJ Iftikhar who had in favour of BB had given a vertdict by which the condition of ID cards was withdrawan.
But now BB herself in negogiations with AG Qayum in Dubai has agreed to this condition.
This woman is the most greedy person and is determuned at any cost to get in goverment even if she has to form a coalition with PMLQ.
Imran took a very right decision to boycotting these sham elections. He has saved himself for another day - a very very wise decision on his part.
No body has discussed about the election position of Gujrat. In my opinion no body want to vote for Choudharies and their members, but it is shure that they will win in this area, Best arrangements for Historical rigging has been made by them.
In any fair election Chaoudharies never won from Gujrat but through rigging they never lose from here.
Please share the comments about Gujrat
Any body from Lahore can share about the election position of Hamza Shahbaz VS Moonas Elahi
It is my favourit Constituency
Hi,
I am resident of NA 189. Where Admin has predicted that Shahida Sattar Lalika of PMLQ will win. This area has always been the PPP area. And here there is majority of Jialays who doesn’t see whether who is contesting from PPP and they vote to Z A Bhutto. But Mr. Abdul Sattar Lalika (Late) was a man of Agencies thats why he never lose a seat in that constituency. You will be surprised that After never visited the constistuency after elections and thats why the area is backward. His ministership was confirmed always and he had no need to go in the constituency. And I think Shahida sattar Lalika is contesting 2nd time 1st time she contested after the death of her husband and now she is going Against Mr. Mumtaz Ahmed Moharvi (Admin wrote Mumtaz Ahmed Matyana Who is the District Nazim (EX President of PPP Bahawalpur Division) of Q League But his Drawing Room has a big Portrait of ZA Bhutto and Benazir at this time as well). Mr Matyana’s Nephew is contesting for NA 188 on PPP ticket and both seats are going to PPP instead of Admins predictions to Q-League.
I think if PPP and PML-N dont have seat adjustment. Moonis Elahi is favorite because he concentrated on this constituency for the last five years. It is also heard that Hamza Shahbaz in not contesting from PP-152 rather a candidate of NA-119 after rejection of nomination papers of Shahbaz Shareef. Anyway PML-N is favorite in Lahore at most of the constituencies.
ur answer may be right, then who will fight against Monnas in case of withdrawal of Hamza
@ GM
NA 126. I just saw on geo PML N has given ticket to khwaja ahmad hassan, i believe he is outsider. Who s PPP and Q league candidate. Moonis elahi iscontesting from one of provincial seats. I think it will be tough for all parties.
what is your prediction now?
Well i dont think its too emotional to be illogical. To be fair he is right, to be practical he seems unfair, but remember there is thin silver line between hypocrisy and truth. Unfortunately we never promoted and acknowledged the truth voice and i feel voice of QH and IK will also be suppressed if not supported by the civil society. Politicians always showed support from right and betrayed from left. For what they are fighting for? For PM ship, for perks? people need justice not dreams. Every path of well being goes from justice only.
“A society can survive on Kufr but not without justice�
In Gujrat there is worst arrangement of rigging, All the tehsil nazim, union council nazaims are busy in arranging corner meetings for PMLQ candidates. It is pity unfair that we still think to participate in the election was the only option with the parties.
I dont know what is meaning of elections for PML-N with 20-30 seats while benazir is happy from the assurances given to her by US, that her safe constituencies will not be touched upon. Chaudries cant dare to rig them in SINDH, SOUTHERN PUNJAB, and NWFP. But i can assure you they will definitely rig the politically orphan PML-N constituencies. BB is happy that NS has given the legtimacy to these election after which she is assured by US to make PM. See today’s new that BB says i am willing to work with president.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/mheyaueyojoj/
Musharraf plans legal escape from emergency
Two consituencies are very intresting.. One my home town.. Where i feel Ayaz Amir will win easy (Well he was winning last time too, till i dont know what happened in the end) and second in Rawalpindi where Shiekh Rasheed will face Javed Hashmi.. Again Javed Hashmi could grab this but from the surface it looks Sheikh will win
Plz understand and spread this message.
This is really the last chance to come out of prision!!!
http://daily.urdupoint.com/todayNewsLive.php?news_id=51793&featured=1&cat_id=2
Appeal to biycott people
I respect your opinion and there is merit in arguments for this , but you should alo respect opion of contesting parties. IF they are saying they will resotre independence of judicary.
Grand jalsas of both parties PMLN AND PPP need attention. Are those people are not pakistanis, Democracy should ne given a chance. These elections will be rigged no doubt, but that can be rsued after the election.
We should debate in acivilized way with arguments, and respect each other.
NoBODY LIKES MUSHARAF
Can anYone update about situation inNA 128, 129,130.
@Democrat Pakistani
BBC is reporting that BB kept silence on the Question, ” either she still believes CJ Ifthar is the true CJ”. I am sorry these people are worst hypocrites. These people only needs power to crush powerless. Dont get caught into the trap of these self centered politicians, Atleast we have to prove we are educated engough to distinguish between true and shame democracy.
I fully endorse the following views expressed by the writer ( Kamila Hyat ) in The News Artice:
Abandoning earlier promises, and refusing to look beyond the possibility of short-term gain, all the major parties have opted to participate in an electoral exercise which will act chiefly to grant legitimacy to a set-up that has consistently shown contempt for the law of the land and for all those who have attempted to uphold it. This includes particularly the deposed judges of the superior courts, who had declined to participate in the kind of contortions of law that many before them opted to undertake in order to facilitate rulers in their various unlawful acts.
.The reports that, in their decision to participate, key political players including the PML-N and the PPP had come under pressure from foreign capitals, notably Riyadh and Washington, are even more disturbing. The fact that these parties believe there is more to be gained by following instructions issued from distant quarters, rather than building a stable future for their parties by putting the interests of Pakistan’s people foremost on their list of priorities, explains why there is so much cynicism regarding their role in the affairs of Pakistan.
.Instead, new heroes have arisen. They include leaders of the legal community, journalists and media owners who have refused to make unethical compromises, the energetic student leaders who after years of silence on campuses have spearheaded many of the recent protests, politicians such as Imran Khan, Mahmood Khan Achakzai and others who have stuck to principle — and, perhaps the most unlikely figures of all to play such a role, the judges who refused to take oath under the PCO.
For any society, such heroes are important. They provide models to look up to — now and in the future — and offer a reminder that even within the increasingly immoral society in which we live, they are still people unwilling to sell their souls in the way of expediency
Shameful views
http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/pakistan/story/2007/12/071213_benazir_judges.shtml
@Shaz
I wish PPP supporters could act somewhat patriotic. All civil society and the suffering public is hopeful of getting the same judiciary back but now she is saying (10th U-turn but didn’t bring her to some positive until now.)
Yesterday in Capital Talk, Safdar Abbasi defended her by saying inspection of our strategic assets and inquiry of our scientists by foreign time will be good to our country.
@ Shaz
You should ask @dmin to paste this news artcile on the home page so that everyone can know whats BB upto. shame on b****h.
@admin
in your next release which I guess will coming soon after Dec 15, can you please colour code to identify which party was the winner of each seat in last elections, and if previous winner is also the incumbent (for the same party or a turn-coat now). Also it will be good if you mention total seats gain/(loss) for each party in the final tally of numbers.
btw what the red colour means in present chart anyway
This is only if, fair elections happened.
and for fair elections, Q league will have much less.
And had their been “LEVEL PLAYING FIELD” and No American Ifluence , PMLN would have won with much more seats although not like 1997 but still a lot .,with PPP still being the second. And Q League being the history.
But these are ideal situations because of
NO LEVEL PLAYING FIELD
RIGGED ELECTIONS
USE OF BLACK MONEY
AMERICA
MUSHARRAF
I wish Imran Khan would have been in the contest.Although his party would not win much, but a very promising and influential role ,he could have played.
I don’t know How he will restore judges?? with this partial boycott??
Just by boycotting ??
Partial boycott is of no worth.
@Asif Awan
Chakwal is also my hometown - yes Ayaz Amir is definitely going to win Inshallah and Major Tahir Iqbal has also withdrawn in favour of Ayaz as I have been told. In the adjoining constituency - Talagang - Inshallah Pervez Elahi would lose and Faiz Tamman is most likely to win.
I am really shocket to read the views of BB about the judicary. She is a biggest hypocrite like Fazl ul Rehman and where is that BB who had said that CJ is real chief justice. This woman has gone mad. NS should under no circumstances support her in anyway if he wants any crediblity.
BB should be voted against in every consitiency of Punjab and should not be allowed to win either a provincial or a national seat in Punjab under any circumstances. She is a mean B - who only cares for herself.
Just because CJ took notice of NRO she has turned against him. She is nothing but a shameless b.
@Fighter - its going to be Dr Saeed Elahi who is going to fight against Monis. Saeed was the ghunda of Allama Iqbal Medical College Lahore when he was a doctor there and he used to terrorise students there. PMLN unfortunately keeps only such people in their cadre
@ Democratic Pakistan
for Na-126, PPP candidate is Hasnat shah ( finalised after cpl of changes of candidate), and PMLQ candidate is sheikh idrees .
idrees..is of those persons who will jsut spend money for any thing…and that is the onlly way of his politcs..and that is reason pervaiz elahi got him there with mounis elahi.
khawja hassan is strong candidate. in Lhr it does not matter in this kindaa costituency if some one is local or else.
khawja hassan is any way local of lahore and had been mayor, khawja is awy for Hajj, i guess and will b back around 25th. but any way his campaign will b run by PMLN. PPP is v v weak here and as the election momentum goes on it will b a ough battle b/w PMLN vs PMLQ here.
@ GM
Thanks for the update on NA126.
Iagree that real contest will be PMLQ and PML N
Can You update on NA 127 situation.
I will check with my relatives in Pak to get more info.
Nice Article!
http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/dec2007-daily/14-12-2007/col3.htm
in srgodha Na 65-67..both candidate of PPP are enough strong to defeat the PMLQ becuse this time..these candidates do not have support to win…might be dovt machineray can make them win either….so i would say PPP is in on 100%
if we discuss the NA 55 and 56 Sheikh Rasheed is is in strong position. but in my opinion Javed Hashmi should win because there is big difference in both struggle for country, any body has knowledge about both the constituencies.
Mr. Zafar Ali shah of PLM n has withdrawn his nomination papers, i think it is a good symptom for our politics
NAWAZ LEAGUE GONA CLEAN SWEEP ALL OVER PAK. no ma dukezz PPP aint fav in NA51 its CHAUDRY RIAZ PML-N…….BUH CUZ riggin n all dat bulshyt wt goes around pak aint evr gona let real honest loyal leaders 2 lead da great country ……… pml-n realy blokd pml-q in pindi wid javed hasmi n hanif abbasi n ch nisar ali khan n inshallah all of dem will specialy javed hasmi hez real hero of pak politics wid PPPZ CH AITZAZ
NA1–ANP
NA2–PPP
NA3–ANP
NA4–PPP
NA5-PPP
hello fellow commentators and readers:
almost like a month ago i posted my predictions for 2008 elections on this site ,, i can not discuss or have any idea who will win constituency to constituency but can give u general idea what i believe is going to happen..
like a fellow commentator said above that musharraf is a commando and he already have a list of losers and winners of this upcoming elections,, i agree and the results r going to be something like this
ALREADY PRESIDENT : Gen(ret) Pervez Musharraf
NEXT PRIME MINISTER: Mrs. Benazir Bhutto
Sind Assembly majority: Pakistan Peoples Party Sind Assembly leading opposition: Motahida Quomi Movement
Punjab Assembly 1/3: Pakistan Muslim League( Nawaz )
Punjab Assembly 1/3: Pakistan Muslim League(Quaid e Azam)
Punjab Assembly 1/3: Pakistan Peoples party
NWFP Assembly majority: Mutahida Majlis e Amal
NWFP leading opposition: Pakistan Peoples party and may be at the most 5 provincial seats will go to pakistan muslime league (N)
Balochistan Assembly as we all know doesnt matter whoever win will bend toward the leading party in the elections to keep and maintain the executive power for Mr President to practice.
may ALLAH show us the right path and bless us with strength, success , progress and happiness ,, Pakistan Zindabad
ALLAH HAFIZ O NASIR ho hum sab ka
hello fellow commentators and readers :
i dont mean to offend any one of u but just want to be very realistic ,, pakistani politics for the last 10 years has been like a girl who doesnt have the authority to make her own decision where and to who she want to get married to,, like her decisions r made by her parents or guardian ,, unfortunately pakistan’s leaders to be r not decided by pakistani general public but these decisions are made in the west wing of the white house in washington D.C .
i am so very sorry to say but these white house people were , are and always will be very serious abt their plans and they do whatever to fully implement their plan and make them reality.,
nowadays state department here issue statement like there is no question abt Mrs. bhutto becoming the next prime minister of pakistan,,and we will see she will be the one .
ALLAH pakistan ko kaforon ka shar se bachay or hamaray ko quwat or taqat dey ka hum un ka muqabla kar sakhain ,, may ALLAH bless pakistan with strength ,, success,, progress and happiness .AMEEN
tale good care of urself and others around u
ALLAH HAFIZ O NASIR ho hum sab ka
Pakistan zindabak
Need someone’s help on PP seat from Lahore.
Na 118- Goes to PML n Malik Riaz
Na 119-Goes to PML n Hamza Shabaaz
Na 120- Goes to PML n Bilal Yaseen
Na 121- Goes to PML n Mian Margoob
Na 122- Goes to PML n Sardar Iyaz sadiq
Na 123- Goes to PML n Javed Hashmi
Na 124 ???? Rohail Asghar or Hamayun Akhtar
Na 125 ?????Intresting contest between Hamayun Akhtar and Saad Rafique.
Na 126 ?????Omar Sohail Butt of PML n and Skeikh Idress of PML Q will have a close match.
Na 127 ?????Abdul Aleem Khan of PML Q and Naseer Bhutta of PML n will have a close match.
Na 128 ??????
Na 129 ??????
Na 130 Samian Gurki of PPP
AssalamoAlaiakaum all Brothers and sisters.
If Imran Khan would had been participated in elections, then my vote definitely had gone to him.
NOW, what should I do?
Should I vote for PPP? No because I do not want to strenthen those who do not believe in restoring my HERO Judges.
Should I vote for PMLQ? No because I do not want to support those who proved to be helping hands of dictator.
Should I vote for MMA? No I am sorry they really disappointed me last time, So, I am not gonna repeat my vote again.
Should I vote for MQM? No because I hate them because of their voilence and bori-band culture.
TWO OPTIONS LEFT:
i) A reasonable independent candidate. (IF available)
ii ) PML N
I would like to comment your critics. Please be neutral and realistic. Jazak ALLAH
May ALLAH bless my loveland - Pakistan Aameen
The only choice left is
i dont agree with your assessment. i see it as follows:
1) PMLQ
2) PPPP
3)JUIF
4)PMLN
sheikh will win NA 56 which is constituency where i live . hanif abbasi who was running on MMA seat last time will not be able to defeat sheikh even on PMLN seat. on NA 55 sheikh will face tough challenge bec Javaid hashmi will break PML votes and may be PPPP candidate would benefit. but i still think sheikh, as a warrior he is, may be able to squeeze a seat.
I believe that in 2008 election, PML(Q) and their allies would get better results than what they got in 2002 election (that includes PPP (sherpao) and independent candidates that joined PML(Q)). The reason is that the boom in economy and unprecedented work done in the country, specially in rural areas, would give PML(Q) a huge advantage over their opponents.
Water is very important for rural areas. What I know, there were almost no water projects that got started or completed during 1988-1999, but in last 8 years around 1000 water projects were started and many of them got completed. Lists of some projects started and completed during last 8 years can be found here:
[Vision 2025 initiated by President Musharraf just after he came to power and consists of 3 phases. Phase I (2001-2006), Phase II (2006-2011) and Phase III (2011=2025)].
http://www.wapda.gov.pk/vision2025/default.asp
In 1999 there was only 5 percent areas in Balochistan where people could go to police or court for justice as they were officially dependent on their chiefs who were mostly cruel to them, but toady Balochs in 100 percent of Balochistan could go to police or court for justice.
During last 8 years, rural areas have seen huge influx of wealth, facilities, and many areas have received schools, amenities (electricity, gas, roads), and jobs etc. Rural areas that were deprived until Musharraf came to power, today owing mobile phone and motorcycle is common in rural areas.
Same prosperity and development is hallmark of Musharraf government in urban areas too, where almost everyone have mobile phones, TV, VCRs, Personal Computers, refrigerators, deep freezers, and many even have air conditioners, plus it seems all have their own transport.. Long queue to pay electricity and gas bills are now over as other facilities were introduced. Commercial areas and roundabouts that use to look fish market because of all those thelas on the roads have disappeared and with many flyovers, deriving became faster, though huge increase of cars and motorcycle, a sign of prosperity, has somewhat congested the roads. Even though I have been visiting the country quite regularly, comparing with state of government offices in 1999 and today, it seems that even government workers have became more efficient in doing their work and serving people. Hence, here are my estimates for next election:
Today Party position in NA members is:
PML(Q): 132
PPP (Sherpao): 19
MQM: 18
Others: 32 (pro-Musharraf)
MMA: 57
PPP: 55
PML(N): 16
Others: 13 (in opposition)
I expect the numbers in coming NA election would be (I could be wrong, but that is my estimate at present, though that may change as election nears):
PML(Q): 155 – 165
PPP (Sherpao): 17 – 20
MQM: 23 – 26
Others: 35 – 40 (pro-Musharraf)
Total of existing coalition: 220 – 240 seats
ANP: 15 – 20
JUI (F): 20 -25
PPP: 45 - 50
PML(N): 10 – 15
Others 10-15 (opposition)
Total of present in opposition: 110 – 130 seats
To get elected, Prime Minister (if eligible) would need: 172 votes (more than 50 percent votes from total strength of 342 MNAs)
To get constitution changed, 228 NA votes are required. That means for BB or NS to become Prime Minister, they would need to change the constitution, and that would require 228 out of 342 votes before they can even bid to become Prime Minister. I believe that after election, JUI may also join government. Opposition leader would be BB.
I believe that result would be such that most likely pro-Musharraf parties would get enough seats to change constitution without help from opposition.
My predictions PUNJAB SINDH NWFP BLOCHISTAN FED
1
PPP= 55 33 5 2 1
PMLQ 43 2 3 2
PMLN 44 1 4 1 1
MOLVI 3 2 12 5
MQM 12
ANP 4
I don’t believe PML (N) will win too many seats. PPP may win more seats than
predicted if the elections were held fair. PML (Q) will be the winner if elections
are rigged. Which ever party wins the new government won’t last more than six months.
regards,
I think you are 70 % write. but please tell me on which basis you conclude this results.