PKPolitics Discuss » Current Issues

Afghanistan 2 years from now and 5 years from now

(102 posts)
  1. Anonymous

    What do you think Afghanistan will look like in 2011 from and 2014.

    year 2009 - year 2011
    *********************
    I think North of Kabul will remain under the control of Northern alliance. Relative peace will prevail and Northern alliance will run the government and Karzai or his like running the central government. It wont change much from what it is today.

    South of Kabul, there will be fierce battles between Taliban and NATO. Taliban will be fighting guerilla war in hiding. NATO forces will be sitting in major cities and towns of Southern Afghanistan by the end of 2009.

    year 2011 - year 2014
    *********************
    Relative peace and progress North of Kabul. North of Kabul run by central government in Kabul.

    Rift in Taliban. Multiple groups within Taliban fighting with each other. NATO realizes they can never defeat Taliban all out so they form alliances with good Taliban. In some provinces former Taliban commanders who have now become good Taliban are ruling. NATO forces gradually move out of those provinces. Mulla Zaeef now represent Pakhtoon and Mulla Omar sidelined or killed. By the end of 2011, Mulla Zaeef or his like will be running Southern Aghanistan. Mulla Omar's faction still carry out activites now and then but they have pretty much lost all public support and strength.

    Effectively, Afghanistan will split into two although it will remain as one country on the map. Northern Alliance running North AFghanistan and Mulla Zaeef running South of Afghanistan. Mulla Zaeef will start a reconciliatory efforts with other pakhtoons and Gulbadeen and Haqqani gets bits and pieces of Southern Afghanistan government.

    Nato will remain in Aghanistan but in fewer numbers and their combat role will erode.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 1:50 #
  2. chechen
    Member

    British:

    3 Anglo-Afghan wars: 19th century
    Withdrew from Afghanistan after humiliating defeats
    Lost its status as "Great" Britain.

    Soviet Union,

    Attacked and occupied Afghanistan: 1979
    Humiliated and retreated with collapse of communism and Soviet union:1988
    Total stay= 9 Years

    America/NATO,

    Attacked and occupied 2001
    Complete defeat and collapse of NATO and America, 2012
    Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan 2012.

    Afghanistan will confirm itself as graveyard of Empires.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 2:02 #
  3. amin1924
    member

    Analyzing the pawns, but missing the players such as US/NATO/Iran/Russia/India, without analyzing their role & interests in the region you can't complete the whole picture.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 3:32 #
  4. rocketrevolt
    Blocked

    Good one chechen!
    Nature's decision though unpredictable but sometimes could appear to be so obvious...!

    Is it me or something went wrong with the nick of above user?
    It was a different nick with that comment?...deymn!

    :)

    ps...Na ker yaar...na ker!!!

    oye JJ khan shararati bachay..kiya ker rahey ho aur kesay ker rahey ho?...lol

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 4:37 #
  5. amin1924
    member

    Now, I think focus has already shifted to Pakistan, the actual theater of war is now Pakistan.

    They do not want to imagine failure in this region because they are very well aware of consequences, evident from history of other great powers.

    Game plan is to de-nuke Pakistan and balkanize it to make it subservient to India.

    And failure is their destiny which they can't avoid, inshallah.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 5:16 #
  6. izbaek
    Blocked

    @j j

    battle ground have changed from afganistan,iran,iraq to pakistan.

    if americans and india want to fight chinese threat,they need to have control over pakistani assets.

    china is planning to threaten us in indian ocean,we would chase them to china sea.

    in 2 years india would have atleast 3 nuclear submarines,1 each for arabian sea,bay of bengal and indian ocean.

    usa is present in diego garcia .

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 6:02 #
  7. amin1924
    member

    Izbaek,

    China's engagement with USA is quite sophisticated and so is with India and I don't want to go into that detail for now.

    It is not going to be chasing each other anywhere. It is more to do with trading/economy... plus regional presence.

    For now India's status is like, "hum bhi hay pancho sawaro main"..

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 6:06 #
  8. amin1924
    member

    Also keep in mind these facts:

    The Bharati plan to link Chahbahar to Kabul has failed due to a few reasons.
    1) The “Taliban” (and 38 other anti-occupation forces) now control about 70% of Afghanistan.
    2) ISAF and NATO does not control the famous Ring Road around Afghainstan
    3) The Bharati built Zergham-Dilaram road has fallen into huge pothole of Afghan politics. It cannot be used and many of the bridges have already been blown up
    4) Delhi anf Teheran have fallen apart and there is no incentive in Iran to guve Bharat access to Kabul r beyond.
    5) Instead Iran is working with Islamabad on building the Iran-Pakistan pipeline.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 6:18 #
  9. izbaek
    Blocked

    @ j j

    who is funding pakistan to make the pipeline?

    come on,without external funds pakistan can't complete such a large project.

    no american,world bank,asian development bank will help you.

    oil from iran cant be exported to china ;the terrain wont make the cost feasible.

    does iran have enough money to invest ??

    iran pakistan pipeline is a hogwash without indian presence.
    and india doesn't want the pipeline passing through pakistan.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 6:26 #
  10. amin1924
    member

    Izbaek,

    In all these regional scenarios, Pakistan is the key. Can't by pass Pakistan, can't avoid Pakistan!

    Even if you by pass Pakistan by going through chah bahar, still the reality in Afghanistan will define the course!

    So far pro Pakistan pushtoon resistance is dominating Afghanistan!

    Pakistan doesn't need India or USA, they depend on us for their existence in Afghanistan. A strong resurgent Pakistan will fail Indian dreams! ! !

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 6:32 #
  11. DeadlyHonest
    member

    Afghanistan and afghanis playing a role for the Muslims ummah against the Evils want to have their say in the region and grip the resources and souls of people living here..
    Against Russia a very good role and now against US extremly nice fight back as US has more advanced tech as compared to Russia of 1970......

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 8:56 #
  12. nadirshah113
    Member

    as JJK said without knowing strategy of US/China/Russia/Iran/India & Pakistan, future of Afghanistan cannot be predicted..im sure if they all leave afghanistan today there will be peace in very near future but obviously thats not going to happen as all these countries have interest in this poor country..
    @izbeak Pakistan/Iran dont need india to build pipeline for them..IPI was an effort of peace in this region which obviously india/america dont want..india never wants peace in its neighbourhood(according to chankkia doctrine), so by joining IPI she would be bound to peace which is against her hegemonic thinking.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 14:14 #
  13. izbaek
    Blocked

    @nsah

    india is always in favor of peace but 26/11 has undone all what we achieved .

    moreover we are left with no option but to suspect your establishments

    ipi could have backfired on us.we don't want to held ransom. and there was no security of the gas pipelines which could be easily attacked by taliban .

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 14:21 #
  14. amin1924
    member

    Izbaek,

    We witnessed Indian camp defeated and humiliated!!! Vajpai switched Russian camp with American. It is too early to claim anything, but the way situation in Afghanistan is developing it is convincing that India will have to forfeit all the investments done in Afghanistan.

    Once West retreats from here, then there will be no stopping -inshAllah!

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 15:02 #
  15. izbaek
    Blocked

    @j j

    afganistan won't be lost to pakistan.

    i am in favor of american defense outsourcing to india.

    i wont mind 1 lak indian troops protecting afganistan,if we get 50 billion $ from americans in a year.

    vajpai didn't switch camps.we have an independent policy. russia is no more a super power .so americans stand out alone.

    indian investments in afganistan are more in form of infrastructure development :road,railway,parliament,hospital ;training native afganistan army.

    who is going to stop india ?
    i doubt pakistan stands at 1% of india in any field.

    we would be monitoring all your activies from all weather spy satellites which coould see all activities from china,pakistan and afganistan to central asia. and with in few years we would have an indigenous gps =>less dependence on usa.

    frankly speaking;pakistan has become weaker in last 10 years while india has developed manifold economically,militarily;people are optimistic in india.
    so as a nation,we stand out united.so don't expect things like kashmir and khalistan can be re initiated .

    those days we were weak and small nations like australia,canada,japan,uk behaved like a bully.
    but next millennium belongs to india ,we are going to control arabian sea,bay of bengal and entire indian ocean.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 15:13 #
  16. amin1924
    member

    Izbaek,

    I am sure you know that BJP is/was pro-america while congress has been pro british.

    With help of CIA assets america tried "kargil tactics" to bring BJP back in to power but congress played amicably, also credit goes to britain for handling the situation. I mean the mumbai episode was done to help get BJP into power.

    You know, we in Pakistan have deep analysis of your country, don't worry. As soon as we sort our things out we will dissect you like a smooth surgeon!

    Afghanistan is already lost to pushtoon resistance, West is only working on exit strategy. I am sure you know ground realities well!

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 15:24 #
  17. chechen
    Member

    izbaek, Wishful bombastic thinking. Are you seeing windmills like Don Quixote?

    Once the US/NATO war criminals are laid to rest, India's picnic in Afghnistan ends automatically.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 15:31 #
  18. izbaek
    Blocked

    @ j .j

    you have incomplete knowledge of india.
    bjp was in power during kargil war .congres and bjp ,both work on same agendas.

    don't believe in conspiracy theories.26/11 was accepted by pakistani prime minister,national security advisor,your interior minister.

    india isn't pakistan.even might americans and other western puppets co-operated with pakistan and tried to dissect using khalistan,kashmir but you could no harm to us.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 15:41 #
  19. chechen
    Member

    26/11 was accepted by pakistani prime minister,national security advisor,your interior minister.

    They do not represent Pakistan. They are same who sold poor Pakistanis as piece of meat to US war criminals for internment at Gitmo. There was not an iota of evidence against those innocents. Busharraf even admitted to that in his auto biography.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 15:56 #
  20. izbaek
    Blocked

    @chachu

    now you will say that dawood,let and jaise don't live in pakistan.

    we get their live videos from pakistan : lol speaking good words in support of india :)

    its good to accept the truth rather than live in self denial.

    imaaandari naam ki chizz nahi hai lagta hai pakistan mein.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 16:12 #
  21. chechen
    Member

    imaaandari naam ki chizz nahi hai lagta hai pakistan mein.

    Sahih hain magar sirf politicians mein.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 16:17 #
  22. @all
    What happened to 'Afghanistan 2 years from now....'?

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 16:26 #
  23. izbaek
    Blocked

    usa is planning to train 50,000 afgani troops and monitor afganistan by sitting in pakistan.

    india is going to use Tajikistan base to avoid any notorious coup in afganistan.iran would also support indian stand.

    northern alliance and pashtun parties could easily form a sustainable government taking the local tribes into confidence.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 16:35 #
  24. Any references to back it up?

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 16:37 #
  25. izbaek
    Blocked

  26. I had personally been to this area recently. One of the American base is lying empty, and most of the stuff is being sold in the local flea markets! All on China's call.

    China had already downed one 'highflying American gadget' studied it, copied it and than parceled that gadget back to America in 'small cartons! That's a China's no-fly zone.

    It is the Northern alliance that has been annihiliated just one month back, the rest is left for the sourthern Pakhtoons and Pashtoons to gobble up. The American surge has failed badly.

    America and NATO are aware that without Pakistan they cant move an inch-evidence they are unable to maintain patrols, as every patrol is ambushed.They cant even get out of Kabul......and if they do it help them keep the body bags count!

    Just four to five days ago many contracts both overt and covert nature had been signed by Tajikstan and Pakistan. Should have been watching TV to witness this.

    Train service is on, and so is the pipeline. Iran and Pakistan do not need any help from any other state to achive this.

    The list goes on and on.......

    BTW we believe what we see, observe or is reported directly to us as we have relatives in Iran, Baluchistan and FATA. My origins are from Balekh, Central Asia.

    Anything else.....

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 16:53 #
  27. chechen
    Member

    izbaek,

    Tadjikitan and all Muslim Republics of Central Asia are sitting on a powder keg and it will explode. India being a third world country that came out of British slavery is playing a role of colonialist in Central Asia. Rather than being on side of oppressed masses it has chosen to side with communist appratchiks that are ruling Central Asia and have dismal human rights record.

    It is plaing the role of a American and Russian poodle. America and Russia are still bent on exploiting and looting the resource rich area. India is getting its tonque out to get some left over bones. Again wishful thinking.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 16:54 #
  28. talalkhan
    Member

    Americans are trying to give positive direction to afganis in development of infrastructure,democracy education,etc.Now it is upto afgans to progress or revert back to infighting,ignorance and destruction after the departure of americans.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:04 #
  29. izbaek
    Blocked

    india isn't a 3rd world country.we are a nation with long term vision,zeal to rise ,filled with optimism .

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:05 #
  30. chechen
    Member

    I didn't invent that term. Ask your masters America who is 3rd world and who is 1st world.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:08 #
  31. shikra
    Blocked

    What is good for Humanity?
    Construction or destruction?
    Reconstruction after the destruction or destruction?

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:08 #
  32. @all
    I dont like the idea of hijacking of threads by members. Stay and bear with the topic of the thread and dont steer it away from it.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:10 #
  33. chechen
    Member

    Good for humanity is destruction of injustice and evil.

    Nothing positive is possible with that status quo of living under injustice and occupation.

    Then only there will be any meaningful contruction or reconstruction.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:11 #
  34. Anonymous

    demitri has hijacked this thread. Will you all ever understand NOT to respond to him???

    Please stick to the topic and I request moderator to delete any off-topic posts from now on.

    tell me about your idea of Afghanist in 2011 and 2014.

    @demitri, you are welcomed NOT to post in this thread.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:30 #
  35. I had been leading them towards the thread topic here and in other threads but when they are going to understand the presence of distractors is yet to be seen.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:33 #
  36. nadirshah113
    Member

    Afghanistan is a natuarl ally of pakistan for all the reasons..i as a pakistani favor a strong stable progressive afghanistan..n i beleive INSHALAH Pakistan Afghanistan Iran all will comeout as winner out of this american/indian imposed war..by 2014 i see a stable progressing afghanistan without indian consulates.

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 17:51 #
  37. chechen
    Member

    nshah,

    Please keep Iran out. Iran facilitated the US invasion. It is no secret. Iran helped America in a big way in occupying Afghanistan.

    http://theseoultimes.com/ST/?url=/ST/db/read.php?idx=7311

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 18:12 #
  38. nadirshah113
    Member

    @chechen you may be right but the fact is no body could have stop america from invading afghanistan..china russia pakistan didnot wabted america in its neighbourhood but still they have..in my opinion iran didnt had any other choice like pakistan..and i think iran also want america to leave

    Posted 2 years ago on 16 Aug 2009 19:46 #
  39. waqartaurus
    Members

    all those who are in romance with Afghanis, you should know they are always united against outsiders and always fighting with insiders, it is in nature of Afghanis to fight and fight. koi aur nahi to apne hamsaye se larna shuru kar dete hain.
    it is better to stay out of thier internal matters, we have our own problems to solve, lets handle and focus on them rather worrying for those who are responsible for grain shortage and wheat smugling apart from bomb blast, terrorist activities in pakistan. we pakistanis have done a lot for them by giving shelter.

    Posted 2 years ago on 17 Aug 2009 12:40 #
  40. Anonymous

    @waqar and @nshah, what do you think AFghanistan will be like in 2011 and 2014?

    Posted 2 years ago on 17 Aug 2009 15:03 #
  41. bsobaid
    Member

    I started this thread some time ago.
    Looks like the strategy is on course. 2011 is the most important year for Afghanistan.

    Posted 1 year ago on 12 Jan 2011 15:21 #
  42. Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,

    There is no change in Afghanistan. The people in Afghanistan have "staunchly" "understood" the fact that their "betterment" lies in following Islam, in "remaining true" to what they believe in, no matter if it plunges them into war, conflicts for lengthy periods.

    People of Afghanistan understand the fact that they need to struggle in order to achieve betterment. They have chosen to struggle.

    As a result, there is only rising up for people of Afghanistan with the passage of time.

    --------------------------------------------------------

    Answer to original topic at hand:

    (1) Afghanistan will remain a Muslim state

    People of Afghanistan have chosen to struggle in this direction.

    (2) It will be governed by Muslims who gather under a "black" flag

    (3) People of Afghanistan have chosen to believe in and adhere to Islam, Islam's ways, guidelines, standards, rules, laws, etc etc

    (4) People of Afghanistan have chosen to continue to push for "Khilafat" (i.e., Islam's political system) inside their state, no matter what amount of struggle is needed for it

    (5) People of Afghanistan will continue to struggle, will continue to mount the endless war, conflict so long as foreign invaders, tyrants, oppressors, imperialists force war on them

    (6) People of Afghanistan will continue to struggle towards kicking foreign invaders, tyrants, oppressors, imperialists out of their land, out of this region

    --------------------------------------------------------

    In contrast, people of Pakistan, the common man in Pakistan, especially the so-called "educated" Pakistani citizen is a "hypocr|te".

    Why ? Because they are not ready to "struggle", not ready to make "sacrifice(s)" "needed" for "achieving" "betterment". Yet, at the same time, they want all "good stuff".

    It is my fear, that people of Pakistan still haven't "learned", still haven't "understood" the fact that there is no betterment unless one becomes true to what they believe in.

    People of Pakistan say;

    (1) they believe in Islam

    yet their actions say it out loud, what they want is to live their lives as per standards set by "non-Muslims".

    In many realms of life, including financial, political, social, judicial, intellectual, defense/offense, people of Pakistan have chosen to sideline Islam, and follow standards set by "non-Muslims".

    The standards set by non-Muslims is to;

    (a) follow no code of conduct, no laws, no standards, no principles
    (b) become "slaves" to "un-controlled" "desires", "lust", without any limits
    (c) adhere to no norms of justice, of goodness
    (d) exploit everything, and everyone for "profit", no matter what the cost to morals, ethics, values, etc etc
    (e) use "fraud" as a "business model"
    (f) etc etc, this list is too long

    In short, non-Muslims have chosen to live their lives as "animals". They adhere to no laws, no code of conduct. They "willingly" "accept" "slavery" at the hands of their uncontrolled desires, lust. Their "animal" nature knows no boundaries, no limits. They cross most all boundaries, most all limits without any hesitation what-so-ever.

    (2) they believe in Pakistan

    Pakistan was created on the basis of "two nation" theory. Muslims and Hindus'. Muslims believe in Islam. Muslims wanted to live their lives as per Islam. Hindus' believe in Hinduism. They wanted to live their lives as per Hinduism.

    Pakistan was made so that people of Pakistan could practice Islam, so that people of Pakistan could live their lives as per Islam's ways, guidelines, standards, principles, rules, laws, etc etc and demonstrate an example to the rest of the world.

    Yet, where is Islam in Pakistan ? Yet where are Muslims in Pakistan who adhere to Islam ?

    If Islam is removed from Pakistan, then all reason, all rationale for "continuation" of "existence" of Pakistan will come to an end. Once that happens, then there will be no force in ALL of this universe/multi-verse which will be able to stop destruction of Pakistan or taking over of Pakistan by non-Muslims.

    (3) they believe in "democracy"

    yet what they'v struggled for is "fascism", "tyranny", "feudalism", "willing" "slavery", etc etc.

    "Democracy" is a "fallacy", an "illusion".

    Do people of Pakistan believe in Islam or "democracy" ?

    If people of Pakistan believe in Islam, then they should reject "democracy". Why ? Because there's no "democracy" in politics that Islam teaches to Muslims.

    And if people of Pakistan want "democracy", then they don't want Islam. Since "democracy" stands for "man made" rules, standards. In Islam most ALL rules, standards come from ALLAH ALMIGHTY. Which means, Islam is shoved to the sidelines, in the corner, in the dark, in the pit. In short it means Islam is not adhered to.

    So what is it that people of Pakistan want ? Do they want "democracy" ? Do they want Islam ?

    (4) they want to be honest

    yet their actions say it out loud, what they overwhelmingly want, is to be everything but honest.

    (5) they want justice

    yet their actions say it out loud, what they overwhelmingly are in favour of, is injustice.

    (6) they want to be self reliant

    yet their words as well as actions say it out loud, what they overwhelmingly want, is to remain dependent on others's money.

    People of Pakistan will make/find any excuse to remain dependent on money from others, especially non-Muslims. Even when they have been made aware that they don't need to depend on money from others by "deen-dar" (in urdu) people living among them. Even when they have made aware that there are "grave" "repercussions" to remaining dependent on others.

    (7) they want peace

    yet their actions say it out loud, what they want is everything but "peace".

    (8) they want financial betterment

    yet their actions say it out loud, what they want is financial doom, death, torment, torture

    (9) they want social betterment

    yet their actions say it out loud, what they want is social doom, death, torment, torture

    (10) they want increase in trade

    yet their actions say it out loud, what they want is to do everything to kill trade.

    (11) etc etc, this list is too long

    --------------------------------------------------------

    In short, there is overwhelming amount of "hypocr|sy" in people of Pakistan. This "hypocr|sy" in people of Pakistan is leading Pakistan to its death.

    Posted 1 year ago on 12 Jan 2011 19:26 #
  43. bsobaid
    Member

    Thank you for your detailed reply Haris. Can you please also respond to the original question asked in the thread?

    Posted 1 year ago on 12 Jan 2011 20:06 #
  44. Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,

    @bsobaid: I already have. I'll update it, so perhaps it will become easier for you to see that I have.

    Posted 1 year ago on 12 Jan 2011 20:13 #
  45. bsobaid
    Member

    ok, I see your answer although its not very specific but I got the answer. thanks

    Posted 1 year ago on 12 Jan 2011 20:49 #
  46. Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,

    @bsobaid: What further specific details are you looking for ?

    Posted 1 year ago on 12 Jan 2011 21:02 #
  47. bsobaid
    Member

    Such as, the exact scenario in the year 2014. Weather NATO forces are there, who will be incharge? state of insurgancy etc. Kind of along the same lines as my original post.

    Posted 1 year ago on 12 Jan 2011 21:43 #
  48. aftab arif
    Member

    In recent months, Pakistan has sought to improve relations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai as the United States begins its withdrawal in July, and regional powers including India jostle for influence.

    "This is part of General Kayani's relentless outreach to President Karzai ever since the Obama administration announced withdrawal plans," said C. Raja Mohan, a prominent Indian foreign affairs expert, referring to Pakistani army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani.

    Mohan said Karzai - who has often blamed Pakistan for fueling the insurgency in his country - had responded to the Pakistani military overtures because he saw Pakistan as his hope for survival once the United States leaves.

    "Karzai is looking to his political future after the U.S. withdrawal and he has asked for 'Pindi's help to find a way to work things out with the Taliban," he added, referring to Pakistani army headquarters in the city of Rawalpindi.

    Feelers have gone out between the Afghan government and Taliban sympathizers, although no formal peace process has begun.

    At the same time, Afghanistan and Pakistan have turned to each other when their own relations with the United States are strained.

    U.S. ties with Karzai have soured since his election was called into question and over corruption. Relations with Pakistan have suffered over covert U.S. actions, including missile attacks by drone aircraft that Washington says are necessary to hunt down al Qaeda and the Taliban and which Pakistan sees as a violation of its sovereignty.

    Above all, driving the flurry of diplomacy is the worry that the United States will leave Pakistan to clean up the mess after it leaves, just as it did following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989.

    "As we're coming to the end game, it's created a sense of urgency for an opening for all sides to come back to the table," said Cyril Almeida, a columnist for Pakistan's Dawn newspaper.

    But the question, he said, is whether the younger generation of Taliban commanders is war-weary or war-hardened, and how much authority supreme Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar retains over them.

    That uncertainty calls into question how much sway Pakistan itself has over the militants, given its ostensible abandonment of them in 2001 after an American ultimatum "The Taliban are not a manageable force anymore. The blowback that has happened in Pakistan, the whole insurgency. They're really worried about the emboldening of characters on their side of the border," said Kamran Bokhari, Middle East and South Asia director for the global intelligence firm STRATFOR.

    "They don't want the Talibanization of Afghanistan," he said, referring to Pakistani leaders.

    One scenario that Pakistan is working toward is a coalition government - perhaps similar to the one in Iraq - that sees the Taliban embedded in a political process that grants them a major say, but prevents them from taking over entirely, Bokhari said.

    It is unclear if the United States would be happy with that, but it may have little choice given that a military victory looks impossible.

    Ultimately, the Americans don't like the idea that there should be some negotiations with the Haqqanis and Mullah Omar," Bokhari said, referring to the most dangerous Afghan Taliban faction.

    "But it's in their interest to see a little bit of a load taken off their plate," he said, referring to a Pakistani role in pressing the Taliban to talk peace.

    But before Pakistan can play a major role, it must overcome distrust in Afghanistan, and a belief that it will always see the Taliban as its long-term allies in achieving its aims, including keeping India at bay, analysts in Kabul say.

    "One thing is clear," said Thomas Ruttig, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.

    "Pakistan needs to play a more constructive role in Afghanistan. I don't see signs that Pakistan has given up its ideas of using the Taliban as an asset for post-2014 Afghanistan."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/19/us-pakistan-usa-idUSTRE73I3T820110419

    Posted 1 year ago on 23 Apr 2011 12:13 #
  49. aftab arif
    Member

    Press TV talks with Naveed Ahmad, a defense and diplomacy analyst in Islamabad, about the strained relationship between the US and Pakistan and how the US hegemony has united the government, the military and the people of Pakistan. The following is a rush transcription of the interview.

    Press TV: Speaking of CIA operatives in Pakistan - The ISI chief was in the US for talks with CIA Director Leon Panetta and requested the reduction of the number of CIA operatives and special ops working in Pakistan. Why is that a key demand and will the US oblige?

    Naveed Ahmad: First of all, intelligence hearing is not taking place and that was the prerequisite for the alliance, if you can call it, at this stage between Pakistan and the US. The US has been pursuing unilateral actions in Pakistan and that is causing quite a lot of ill will.

    Secondly, Pakistan is very independent - it is not like Middle Eastern countries where things can stay hidden and the US is probably one of the countries, which speaks of free world and freedom of expression, but in this case they are upset with our media and some of the Generals and media houses do not get invitations or any kind of access.

    As for the whole saga of Mr. Raymond Davis and of his release and as far as the Saudis and others are concerned this exposes the entire problem that Pakistan is trying to highlight and the US is not trying to accept. But the problem is that the Pakistani government, its military and Pakistani public opinion at this stage are in unison and that is rare in a country like Pakistan.

    So Pakistan united is ready to fight the US increasing heat, which probably is in a state of desperation - they have the entire Middle East heading in a direction they were not expecting or prepared for, and we saw what they did in Egypt; and secondly they are not sure how far they can go in Afghanistan given the situation that they are seeing in Libya, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria and others. So the overall situation is causing desperation within Washington and the Pentagon.

    Press TV: What are the number of foreign agents we are talking about that Pakistan is demanding needs to be lessened? Contractors as I understand are in abundance in Pakistan.

    Naveed Ahmad: Numbers are large and from various groups; they are basically on a witch hunt trying to find any excuse they can use to get people arrested. It is a country that has been run over the past several years without any laws for that matter. Musharraf gave unprecedented access (to US operatives to enter Pakistan). Now they are trying to reduce it and the Raymond Davis issue made it all extremely public.

    If you look at Islamabad and other cities there are certain houses and certain facilities behind barricades and barbed wire and all kinds of security and the numbers there are high and even the bullet-proof cars that are seen are a moving target.
    This is why the Pakistani secret intelligence agencies deem the burden of protecting these foreigners on their shoulders is too much.
    And Americans on the other hand continue to insist that Pakistanis are not reliable and that ISI and other intelligence agencies are playing a double game.

    Some of the Taliban were in good contact with the US even after 9/11 some of them. President Karzai and others have been talking to them. But when Pakistan does this or Iran does this or any neighboring countries, Americans are not happy with it. So Americans can have an interest in Afghanistan, France and Britain can have an interest in Afghanistan, but not the neighboring countries.

    Press TV: In terms of what the US interest is in Pakistan, the Pakistani army firmly believes that Washington's real aim is to neutralize the nation's nuclear arsenal. We know that Pakistan has been very ambitious in developing its nuclear arsenal on its way to becoming the world's fifth largest. Do you think that is indeed what Pakistan is afraid of in terms of what the US might do? Or is that process already under way?

    Naveed Ahmad: There is no doubt about it. Whenever there is a problem between the US and Pakistan at any level and the US are pushing Pakistan to have its demands met, definitely stories come out about Pakistan's nuclear weapons through anonymous sources to the New York Times and elsewhere in the US press.

    The same happened recently when the Raymond Davis issue was a hot discussion, Pakistan was not budging and the Saudis had not come in on the issue; that is when another story came out that Pakistan's arsenal is much bigger and more sophisticated that its needs.

    There is no doubt about that that Pakistan is facing this pressure, but the American establishment has to realize that Israelis having nuclear weapons. And Pakistan is getting nuclear technology for civilian uses and Pakistan is sacrificing everything for the US war in Afghanistan, which has become its own war because of poor policies of General Musharraf and other dictators - this is not something that Pakistanis will budge on and this is one point that can unite the Pakistani nation. And there has been tremendous stories talking about the Taliban taking over the arsenal etc.

    The fact is India is just next door and is far more sophisticated and they have the ambitions to do that (neutralize Pakistan nuclear threat) so if they cannot get hold of any of the source, how can a rudimentary group like the Taliban do it. This is all a means to create a scare with public opinion. And I compare it with stories of Israel's nuclear program that has appeared in US press and of course ...

    It is not about the stockpile of nuclear weapons Pakistan has, it's about the sophistication that is worrying the US and also India and other countries. Pakistan has smartly understood what kind of designs and tactical weapons it needs to engage and contain its force. So talking about numbers is a misleading statement deliberately put in the American press. The real fear is that Pakistani scientists are very good and the technological edge Pakistan has over India... They tested a rocket a few years ago and comparable technology is not visible in India.

    Press TV: Regarding the AfPak policy - If the Afghanistan part isn't going well how can there be a Pakistan policy. What is your assessment of this AfPak approach?

    Naveed Ahmad: Officially Pakistan has declared the Afpak policy as an insult to Pakistan. Secondly, the Americans think they can influence Pakistan and coerce us into some kind of subjugation. The next target you might see, but I think it should not happen, could be more attacks on NATO supplies. And when NATO supplies are hit, the US is on its knees.

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/176111.html

    Posted 1 year ago on 23 Apr 2011 13:51 #
  50. bsobaid
    Member

    Interesting articles aftab and thanks for giving lifr to an old but a useful thread i started in mmy previous janam.

    Karzai has partly solidified his position with pakistan,s help and the two are trying to deal directly with each other.

    Posted 1 year ago on 23 Apr 2011 22:49 #

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