Spearhead Analysis
Angoor Ada is a town on the Pak-Afghan border in the Waziristan area of FATA (Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas). The name is reminiscent of names in Viet Nam and Cambodia and if media reports are accurate then there has been a massacre of civilian men, women and children similar to the ones in places like My Lai. According to the media ‘Coalition Troops’ based in Afghanistan were dropped from helicopters under cover of combat aircraft and helicopter gunships. The troops, obviously in a hurry, barged into houses killing inmates before they were extracted. The tactics are also reminiscent of Viet Nam.
It is not just the media that is reporting the incident. A military spokesman has condemned it as has the NWFP Governor, and the Foreign Office has summoned the US Ambassador to lodge a protest. US military and civil government sources have declined comment though one media report cites an unnamed Coalition military source as saying that this was a retaliatory action. The question being asked is that if no one knows what happened then perhaps it was a ‘rogue’ action by desperate troops pushed to the limit. The result of a joint investigation into a previous attack on a Pakistani border post is still awaited. Another widely condemned attack on Afghan civilians is being investigated after protests by the Afghans.
A certain conditioning had taken place to the missile attacks by the US especially because there was evidence of aliens having been killed but this ‘landing’ on Pakistani soil raises the bar and is clearly deliberate escalation to a higher level. It comes in the wake of a high level US-Pak military meeting aboard a US aircraft carrier somewhere in the Indian Ocean. The question being asked is whether this is a deliberate step in pursuit of the long standing US desire to put ‘boots on the ground in FATA’ or is it some kind of ghastly mistake.
People are drawing conclusions and speculating. Is this part of some kind of ‘body count’ policy (again shades of Viet Nam!) and if so then how many killed will lead to victory? Can such a policy ever succeed in Afghanistan-FATA? Has the US decided to do what Karzai threatened? What impact will this attack have---none because Pakistan is bogged in internal problems? Or will it consolidate the overwhelming support for the struggle by the Pukhtoons of Afghanistan? Or will it lead to increased support and sympathy for the Taleban in Pakistan and an erosion of support for the US? Will such escalation help the democracy developments taking place in Pakistan---the only hope for forging a consensus against the threat to Pakistan? A realistic appraisal of the street opinion in Pakistan especially in NWFP and FATA can lead to some answers that may interest and surprise policy makers.
A more important question is what effect will it have on Pakistan’s security forces? They are often blamed for fighting a US war. Media images of people displaced because of military operations have not helped forge a view that this is Pakistan’s war against those who threaten its stability. The aborted attack on the PM’s car may be a preview of what is yet to come. Getting lost in translation is the importance of the US-Pakistan relationship.
