Abbas Rashid
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C05%5C31%5Cstory_31-5-2008_pg3_2
On both counts — resolving Siachen as well as developing the gas pipeline — there should be considerable popular support on both sides of the border. And progress here will generate momentum for resolving other outstanding issues including Kashmir
The peace process between Pakistan and India is badly in need of a fillip. The foreign ministers of the two countries, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Pranab Mukherjee, met in Islamabad in May after an earlier meeting had been postponed as a result of President Musharraf’s declaration of Emergency.
Some things have certainly changed in the relationship between the two neighbours. Not too far back, the savage bombing of civilians in the city of Jaipur close to mid-May could well have resulted in heightened tensions between the two countries, regardless of who was responsible, leading to a possible derailing of the process. In another development that should be cause for concern, India has claimed that there were several incidents of firing along the Line of Control by Pakistani troops.
Pakistan, for its part, has reiterated the commitment to maintain the ceasefire, and the matter has been taken up by the Directors General of the two countries. While the incidents are serious and require proper investigation to ascertain responsibility, it is also worth noting that these have not led to a spate of accusations and counter-accusations. That such a knee-jerk reaction is not the norm anymore is a welcome development.
Still, the pace leaves much to be desired. This round of talks has yielded commitments to move forward on a number of issues and a pact on allowing consular access to prisoners. This is not insignificant certainly for the large number of the very poor, including fishermen, who end up incarcerated for years across the border in India as well as Pakistan with virtually no means of securing their release. A related issue is that of the death penalty that both countries should work towards abolishing.
Given the obvious desire for peace and shared economic development at the popular level on both sides much greater progress should have been registered by now. In this context it is illustrative that the visa regime central to creating an enabling environment for greater people-to-people contact itself remains erratic and subject to whimsical bureaucratic shifts, with both sides often turning down visa requests for no obvious reason.
Clearly, Kashmir remains central to the process. And India can certainly do more to move towards a resolution of the issue. Over the last few years Pakistan has significantly modified its demands in this context by emphasising the primacy of the Kashmiris’ aspirations rather than its claims under the relevant resolutions of the United Nations. And India’s response has been wanting in terms of `constructive reciprocity’, a term reportedly favoured by the Indian foreign secretary.
In any case what is needed at this point is greater momentum. One way to achieve this is by pushing with greater deliberation on issues that are relatively less contentious.
Siachen is one such issue. According to news reports, the two sides are very close to an agreement on Siachen. The cruel irony here is that they have been close for almost two decades now given that an agreement had virtually been reached as far back as 1989 between Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi. A major obstacle is India’s insistence that the positions it currently occupies on the glacier be authenticated. Pakistan, despite its reservations, has sought to meet this concern and there were signs last year that India could also show flexibility on the issue. But, as of now, the soldiers of both countries remain on the glacier fighting for their lives against the bitter cold. It seems likely that it is the intransigence of the Indian military top brass that is holding up the agreement.
On this as well as other related issues it is clear that the political leadership on both sides, representing the will of the people, will need to assert itself. The continuing disarray among Pakistan’s leading political parties is not much help and soon the elections in India, due in less than a year’s time, will begin to monopolise the attention of political parties across the border. It is imperative, therefore, to step up the pace.
Another key area for forward movement is the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. It is not just a matter of Pakistan’s energy needs or what it may be able to secure in terms of transit fees, but the larger dynamic of trans-border economic activity in both directions that the pipeline could help trigger.
The project has had its ups and downs. Aside from other things, the Bush administration has been keen to ensure that the two countries not cooperate with Iran, which it sees as a major threat in the region. India had stopped attending the pipeline-related meetings and it was a widely shared view that the prospect of finalising the Indo-US nuclear deal had something to do with its waning interest.
At this point it does not look like the deal is going through. But, in any case, India is again showing interest in the pipeline. With the likelihood of the White House going to the democrats, the pressure to not deal with Iran is likely to decrease and companies in the West that were unwilling to invest in the multi-billion dollar project due to possible US sanctions may be encouraged to do so. Otherwise there is the prospect of the Russian energy giant Gazprom or China investing in the venture.
On both counts — resolving Siachen as well as developing the gas pipeline — there should be considerable popular support on both sides of the border. And progress here will generate momentum for resolving other outstanding issues including Kashmir. There has been talk of Pakistan’s leadership going to India and of a visit by the Indian prime minister to Pakistan this year.
There is something to be said for such high level contacts being a matter of routine. But given a kind of drift that has attended the process for some time now, it would be fitting if such meetings at the highest level could also serve as occasions marking substantive progress on at least one if not both these issues. At this point, the peace process between the two countries could certainly use the momentum this would generate.
Abbas Rashid is a freelance journalist and political analyst whose career has included editorial positions in various Pakistani newspapers
