Spearhead Analysis -11.08
The Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen has stated that the US is forging a new strategy for Afghanistan and that the US will continue strikes on terrorist safe havens in Pakistan. His statement comes after President Bush had bracketed Pakistan with Iraq and Afghanistan and vowed to continue military action in spite of regrettable collateral damage. That this is a unilateral US decision without consideration of the consequences is crystal clear from the statement of Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff. He has said that there was no agreement or understanding with the US for attacks in Pakistan and that Pakistan’s territorial integrity would be defended. General Kayani’s statement has found overwhelming resonance in Pakistan.
We now face a situation that the US’ covert undeclared policy of striking targets in Pakistan is now a declared overt policy. Pakistan’s policy has been spelt out by its Army Chief and there is national consensus behind it. It is up to the US State Department to take steps to avert a confrontation though Mr Gates has said that the US does not want a confrontation. The future US-Pakistan relationship will be decided on how this issue is resolved.
For starters the US needs to clarify that US policy is not aimed at targeting Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They will only target terrorists therefore the people must distance themselves from such elements because the US does not want collateral damage and carefully weighs the consequences before undertaking action.
Pakistan must carefully consider its options. Its declared policy is not to allow its territory to be used for terrorist attacks. This policy needs to be restated, publicized and implemented. Pakistan must also clearly state that it does not want US strikes in its territory and does not want collateral damage from any military action. The people in FATA can help by not allowing targets that are likely to invite attack. The Army Chief has already said what needed to be said and he has reminded everyone that structures exist for resolving issues.
In the interest of sustaining the US-Pakistan relationship, avoiding long term implications of unilateral actions and above all human security the US could consider two suggestions before it changes the rules of engagement. First the Afghan-Pakistan border must be defined and hardened regardless of Afghan objections. This will require many actions. Secondly a neutral zone should be established on the Afghan side of the border. This zone should be brought under effective surveillance and the US can load for dinosaurs and wait for targets. Such a zone will cut off and isolate the sanctuaries on the Pakistani side. Pakistan can then take action on its own side as part of a COIN and pacification campaign.
An avoidable confrontation should not deal a mortal blow to US-Pakistan cooperation. This is what the terrorists and their supporters want.