One of the ways the Mujahideen defeated the USSR’s occupation of Afghanistan in the 80s was that they severed the supply lines to Afghanistan from the USSR, which at the time included Tajikistan and Uzbekistan etc. They constantly harassed and attacked the conveys. The supply lines from Central Asia are very vulnerable to attack.
The US is trying to diversify its supply chain. The maps show that it is an impossible task to get supplies to Afghanistan without the support of Pakistan.
This is the long circuitous route the US has to take in order to get supplies to Afghanistan. It is expensive, unreliable and subject to the whim of Russia and a whole bunch of states that have to be constantly bribed
The alternate supply lines using the “Northern corridor” are good news from Pakistan. The Talibs will focus on the supply routes in Central Asia. Already the IMU is very active in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The NATO trucks rumbling through these former Turkish states will act as magnets for the militants. The last time the supplies came from the Northern route, it destabilized the region from the Amu Darya all the way to the Caucus Mountains. Because of the militancy, Chechnya Dagestan, Tartaristan, Angushtiya, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan all rose up in revolt against the Soviet empire.
The USSR had to retreat from Afghanistan, but it also had to give up give up control of the former Turkish states.
This time around, the supply routes, as they are being shifted through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will create havoc for the regimes in Astana, Dushanbe, Fergana and other regional hubs.
As the Americans move more and more supplies to those supply routes, Russia will have to weigh the costs.
The Northern Supply routes are unsustainable and cannot be relied upon for any extended period, especially in the winter. No war in the history of humanity has been able to be waged with such an extended supply chain.
Army seizes large quantity of Indian ammunition in hands of ‘Afghan’ terrorists.
The end game in Afghanistan has begun. Proxies are taking up positions on both sides of the border testing the waters and attempting to stake out the territory. Events point to the future after the US leaves. It will leave a contingent of Afghans that are beholden to the West. Those Afghan will die for no reason at all-cannon fodder for the empire that refuses to call itself an empire.
Press reports have Pakistani officials indirectly blaming Delhi for the cross-border raids from Afghanistan.
Apparently, a ‘game’ was being played at the behest of some regional stakeholders who were averse to Pakistan-Afghan rapprochement.
During a recent operation against militants, the army seized a large quantity of Indian, American, Russian and Chinese weapons and ammunition.
Pakistani officials said there was no doubt that they had tacit support of regional leaders and some elements within the Afghan government.
“There could be no other explanation for groups of 200-300 militants moving in Kunar to launch attacks on Pakistani posts. They have a continuous supply line of arms and finances in addition to logistical support.”
There have been five major raids by militants based in eastern Afghanistan. The militants, many of whom had fled operations in Bajaur, Mohmand and Swat, are occupying an area between River Kunar and the border because of a void created by withdrawal of Isaf forces from the area.
“They attack the Pakistani areas to regain the territory lost because of army operations,” a military official said. Pakistan has protested over militant attacks with the Afghan government, Isaf and ANA.
Delhi is openly supporting the terrorists. Iran is supporting factions. Pakistan is building up alliances. China is investing. Russia is taking stock and the former Turkish states of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are scared. As the US begins to retreat from Afghanistan, it will begin to sugar coat the defeat with spectacular raids, and high-profile acts, which will hide the pain, felt by the NATO forces.
One such event is the vacation of areas along the Pakistani border. The Afghan National Army (ANA) has not taken up the area and the US forces have withdrawn. Bharti sponsored forces call the Tehrik e Taliban (TTP) are being brought into this area to attack Pakistan from Afghanistan.
Islamabad has repeatedly asked the ISAF and ANA forces to clean up the cesspool. Because the ANA has failed to clear up the area, the Pakistan Army had to do it itself. The sanitization is in progress.
Belatedly the Army did admit that it had conducted operations to clear the area. Pakistan army had earlier this week said that the mortar rounds could have “accidentally crossed the border” and denied that the shelling was intentional. With the Afghan National Army (ANA) with its embedded, US advisors fired rounds into Pakistani territory too.
According to press reports, the Pakistani military commanders say the root of the problem lies in Afghanistan where militants have sanctuaries in areas bordering Pakistan from where they “launch attacks on our posts”.
Military officials say when Pakistani forces retaliate against the militant attacks some rounds possibly land in Afghan territory.
“We have told ISAF and the ANA about the presence of Swati Taliban and militants led by Faqir Mohammad (Bajaur) and Abdul Wali (Mohmand),” a military official said, adding no action was being taken against their sanctuaries.
Another official said there was no doubt that they had tacit support of regional leaders and some elements within the Afghan government.
The US is scrambling to find other routes to get its supplies to Afghanistan. It is stubbornly refusing to defend the indefensible-the refusal to vacate the Shamsi airbase, ostensibly on the pretext that they rented it from the UAE. The Emirates were apparently using it for falconry and then leased it to the Americans. Pakistan has halted food and water supplies to the base, and the US is not flying drones of the base, at least temporarily.
Pakistan Defense Minister Mukhtar Ahmad’s comments this week that the government had ended U.S. drone flights out of Shamsi air base deep in southwest Baluchistan province has injected new controversy in their troubled relationship.
Washington’s dismissal of the Pakistan government’s stand is quite extraordinary.
Can a country, even if it is the world’s strongest power, continue to use an air base despite the refusal of the host country?
Imagine the United States encamped in Pakistan using its airstrip to run a not-so-secret assassination campaign against militant leaders including Pakistanis while Islamabad fumes (Christian Science Monitor).
http://ghalibsultan.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/dragging-central-asia-in-to-the-war/
