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Election results 2013

(47 posts)
  1. msyedh

    Election 2013

    PMLN NA seats.

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISL Total.
    51 ---- 1 -- 6 - 2 ----------- 0 -- 60

    PPPP NA seats.

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISL Total.
    30 ---- 36 - 4 - 2 ----------- 1 -- 73

    PTI is NA seats.

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISL Total.
    42 ---- 1 -- 8 - 0 ----------- 1 -- 52

    PMLQ

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISL Total.
    11 ---- 0 -- 1 - 1 ----------- 0 -- 13

    MQM

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISL Total.
    0 ----- 17 -- 0 - 0 ---------- 0 -- 17

    ANP

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISL Total.
    0 ----- 0 --- 7 - 0 ---------- 0 -- 7

    JUI F

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISl Total.
    1 ----- 0 --- 8 - 4 ---------- 0 -- 13

    Others

    Punjab Sind KP Balochistan ISL Total.
    13 ---- 6 --- 1 - 3 ---------- 0 -- 23

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 5:47 #
  2. sipahi

    @msyed

    So the next PM is ...............................

    Approved by. ...................

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 5:56 #
  3. mawan1971

    @msyedh
    PPP won 32 seats from Sindh in 2008 and it include 7 seats from Karachi and Hyderabad cities, mainly because of BB factor. Now they they will hardly get 2 seats from Karachi and Hyderabad. Predicted PPP's total seats from Punjab are also close to 2008 one which is almost impossible. Realistic PPP seats 40-50 total from all over Pakistan.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 5:57 #
  4. msyedh

    2008 all anti Musharaf vote cashed by Noon league, because PPP signed NRO with Musharaf. This time there will be no anti Musharaf vote for Noon league.

    PPP can get more seats from sind because many independents winner of 2008 election joined PPP. But it does not matter, few seats can be less or more in sind, but there will be not much difference.

    PPP got 41 seats in 2008 from Punjab but this time only 30.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:04 #
  5. msyedh

    I think, next prime minister will be Makhdoom Ameen faheem or Imran Khan.

    Nawaz Sharif can only prime minister if Imran Khan support him after election. But i don't think so.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:09 #
  6. sipahi

    @msyedh

    So in your opinion PTI and PPPP will have coalition government.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:17 #
  7. msyedh

    PPP does not need coalition government with PTI in Federal.

    PPP+PMLQ+MQM+ANP+ JUIF can make government.

    However PPP and PTI can not make government without each other help in Punjab.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:21 #
  8. sipahi

    @msyedh

    You mentioned IK as PM , how that can happen without PTI having coalition with one of the major parties in previous government. Of course you have to rule out coalition between PTI and PML n.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:25 #
  9. msyedh

    sipahi @

    PPP can support PTI and Imran Khan can be prime minister but then PTI have to support ppp and Q league for punjab government.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:28 #
  10. msyedh

    I think PPP and Q league will be agree to give up prime minister seat to Imran Khan if PTI support them to end Noon league Punjab possession.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:31 #
  11. mawan1971

    I totally disagree with this analysis. In 2008 PML(N) did not got enough time to launch their campaign. They could not get time to decide their best candidates. Lot of PML(N) candidates were decided by local leadership without any assessment that how strong this candidate is. Even then they got 68/272. Now things are different, almost 80% electable are in their camp and they are running a very strong campaign. PML(N) payed 5 Lakh per constituency to survey company to enquire who is most strong candidate in each constituency and ticket was mainly given based on that survey.

    There is a 12 party alliance in Sindh which will give some dent to PPP for sure, and PPP now winning 7 seats in Karachi/Hydarabad is out of question. In central and Northern Punjab they will be lucky if they get 5-10 seats here. In South Punjab situation is not as smooth lot of influencial people already left PPP and they are in PML(N) or PTI. My assessmnt for PTI is between 40-50 seats but I will not be surprized if they end up close to 35. Votes are cast by workers who take people to polling station and no active worker in field for PPP these days, their election campaign is almost dead in Punjab. PPP's big guns in Punjab are under serious threat of losing their own seats. No transport to polling station is another negative for PPP, PPP's poor voter cannot afford to go to polling station of their own pocket.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 6:54 #
  12. mawan1971

    PML(N) only need 85 seats in Punjab and they will easily get 15 seats from remaining three provinces. I repeat my formula for PML(N) collation government in federal.
    PML(N) 100
    JUI (F) 8
    JI 6
    PML(F) 10 (Sindh plus Punjab seats)
    Balouch Nationalist 6 (BNP(M), BNP (H), PKMAP, JWP)
    Independent (Including Fata) 15
    Total = 145, required for simple majority = 137
    PML(N) may not require PPP+PTI+PML(Q)+MQM+ANP in their alliance. People who are saying it will be a hung government and no one will be able to make government, I am not agreed with them.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:08 #
  13. LHR

    Shah Sahib
    firstly wellcome back.

    secondly although there seems to be no Zordari Saeen's PPP presence on ground and constituencies but it is good to know that its presence is atleast on the web .....because of you.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:15 #
  14. hasankhan

    @msyedh,I agree with u, fair analysis.I want to see Javaid Hashmi Chief minister of Punjab.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:22 #
  15. msyedh

    mawan1971 @

    I am agree with you about weak position of PPP in Punjab. PPP was targeted last 5 years by Judicial establishment and media. It created negative impact against PPP. That is why, I am giving them 30 seats in Punjab.Even they got only 25 seats in Punjab, they are still much better position then PML N and PTI.

    It is true ppp is not running proper election campaign because security issue. but on the other hand lot of PPP candidates whom are serious contenders, they are even working more hard to compete and they are making very agressive campaign. PPP may loose more seats in south Punjab than 2008 but in north Punjab there will be almost same seats.
    In Sind these Tanga parties can not much damange to PPP. They can create panic for PPP and overall more vote against PPP than 2008. But when anybody check seat to seat competition then there is no chance for these parties.

    Yeh siraf naam ki partiyan hain. en mein siraf aik PML F party ha jo 2/3 seatain le sakti ha, baqi sab zero hein.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:28 #
  16. msyedh

    hasankhan @

    Everybody is acceptable including Hashmi.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:33 #
  17. mawan1971

    @hasankhan
    I cannot control my laughter, when I read Javeed Hasmi Punjab CM. Punjab CM ship is a very very active position. If you look at all past Punjab CM's (Shahbaz Sharf, Pervaiz Elahi, Ghulam Hauder Wahin, Munzoor Watoo) they were very very energetic and active and on the other hand Javeed Hasmi is quite old and cannot even talk without break. I don't think he will be in next parliment, he is weak both in Islamabad and Multan seats.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:35 #
  18. msyedh

    LHR @

    Thanx for welcome

    Brother just wait 7 more days then you will see, how powerful is Bhutto and PPP even in this worse situation.

    However I am agree that it is better for Bilawal, PPP and Pakistan to get rid of this Zardari gangster as soon as possible.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:39 #
  19. mawan1971

    @msyedh
    ....in north Punjab there will be almost same seats...

    North Punjab PPP is much weaker than South Punjab. Only Raja Rental is safe on his seat other wise Qaira, Gondal, Chan all are in realistic danger of losing their own seats. In Punjab there is no law & order issue for PPP, they don't have leadership to lead their election campaign. Most of PPP's workers are found in PTI and some in PML(N) camp as they cannot stay away from political process.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 7:42 #
  20. msyedh

    mawan1971@

    PMLN more candidates are in danger to loosing seats than PPP candidates. You are counting seats which PMLN is additionally winning in election 2013 but you are not deducting seats which Noon league is loosing in 2013 which they won in 2008.

    More electable candidates does not mean PMLN going to win all those electable candidates seats. sometimes peoples want to try opponent candidates. It happens in many seats that peoples are electing each time opponent candidates.

    PML N election campaign on ground is very weak or ineffective on many those seats which many peoples were thinking that these are confirm seats for Noon league. There are few reasons for this.

    PTI effective campaign.

    many ppp candidates hard work, anti talbans and terror issue.
    Noon league internal ticket issues and their independent candidates whom are destroying Noon league election campaign on many seats.
    Noon league over confidence is also fooling themselves. Many peoples hate Noon league negative propaganda style.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 8:06 #
  21. LHR

    Shah Sahib

    The question about Punjab Assembley should not be which party will win or lose....but who will be the CM from PMLN after 11 May?

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 8:17 #
  22. Engr Satti

    @msyed need to contact Psychic Dr...who is claiming PPP is favourite along with PML-Q,PTI AND MQM...ANP Tooo..

    KPK Fazzlurehman is getting very very strong and it seems clear sweep from him,Most of you will not agree but Jamiat Ulema islam has declared vote for IK is haram and it has given a great impact as Right wing vote is Going with JUI,JI And PML-N As they are neutral in war on terror and want to solve issue by talks...Liberals are more towards ANP and PML-N at this Time..Most PPP and ANP Strong personalities joined PML-N because PML-N has offered all those not accomodated in elections will be given tickets in baldiat elections...So PTI has very few chances to reach more than 25 seats as PML-N's Multan jalsa has hit the PTI Top leadership and Shahbaz's Rally in RWP With 2500 vehicles for 10 hours has changed Rawalpindi scenarion...

    PTI is struggling allot..They are competing on 3 NA Seats of RWP but they are also making way for PML-N Candidates in RWP in NA-54,NA50,NA-51...So PTI is in trouble..ISB Both seats they are out of competition... NA-48 pml-n Vs PPP na-49 PML-N VS JI...

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 8:20 #
  23. hasankhan

    Sometime I think Zerdari purposely wants to lose this time.Might be he is thinking Nawaz or IK both r not capable to complete the tenure,next elections r due with in two years.Till that time Balawal will be eligible to contest elections.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 8:20 #
  24. msyedh

    hasankhan @

    hahahahaah

    Good conspiracy theory against Zardari.

    But i am agree anything is possible from Zardari.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 8:24 #
  25. msyedh

    LHR @

    PML N, PTI and PPP will be not in position to make alone next Punjab government. At least one party have to support other to make Punjab government.

    But i can bet one thing that PPP and Q league are committed to end Noon league possession on Punjab, does not matter how much they have to give up.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 8:30 #
  26. LHR

    Shah Jee

    You forgot to include PTI alongside Zoradri Saeen's 2 other parties PPP and Q

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 8:35 #
  27. aghaffar

    @msyedh
    --------------Punjab----------KPK------------Sindh-----BLCHTN
    PMLN----------100~110---------8~10-----------2~4--------4~5
    PTI-----------15~25-----------10~15----------0~1--------0~1
    PPP+PMLQ------10~20-----------8~12-----------12~20------2~5
    MQM----------- 0--------------0--------------15~17-------0
    ANP----------- 0--------------3~5------------0-----------0
    JUIF---------- 0--------------5~7------------1----------2~4
    JI------------1~4-------------4~6------------2~4---------0

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 9:53 #
  28. Engr Satti

    @msyed

    Let me correct you N League is not dependant on Sharifs..Establishment already tried so hard to Put an end to League..its just because of dedicated workers who Make it alive in Punjab and other Provinces...We were called Punjab Party but in 93,97 elections PML-N Created serious Threat to MQM in karachi by snatching 2 seats of NA in 97 and having very close competition on 3 seats..Altaf lost senses at that time and it was a start of Killing PML-N Workers in Karachi..and over 3000 workers are killed in last 15 years...

    PML-N Lives in the heart of Peoples and you cannot remove it no matter what happens...

    Our leader ship along with Rajaz zafrul haq,ch nisar,zafar ali shah,siddiq ul farooq,zafar iqbal jhagra,saad rafique,ayaz sadiq,shahid khaqan abbasi are came from down ..u cannot remove worker from politics..u can only change top leadership...

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 10:13 #
  29. xtra

    It is interesting to see huge difference in msyedh and a ghaffar's predictions. There is another sticky thread by PKP that gives seat to seat analysis.

    msyedh has given his reasons, what are yours aghaffar?

    It would be nice to see forecasts backed by at least province to province analysis, if not by seat.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 10:14 #
  30. Sharif Aadmi

    aghaffar
    Interesting analysis ,
    JI getting 1-4 seats from Punjab? Next to impossible in my humble oponion.

    Awan sahib,
    PPP didn't win any seats from hyd city. It won' from hyd rural , the usual seats , that it has always won like naveed qamar , jilani , amir faheem . These seats have been traditional PPP seats and have alwyas won and will win again most probably.

    Similarly , from khi , it won liyari & malir seat which are again ususal ppp seats so , don't see much dent in those 7 seats u mentioned .

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 11:02 #
  31. imi121

    What is the current situation in Hazara. Myself still and my whole family was staunch PML-N supporters. just talked to my sister brother in laws cousins and other family member in haripur. they are voting pti this time every one saying Kaptaan khan although people dislike raja amir and yousuf ayub but they are just voting for the name sake of Imran khan. Is this a worrying sign for PML-N. i think we PML-N supporters have to be ready for a shock. Atleast i am now convinced that seats where PTI have a condidate with 10 to 20k personal votes will definitely win in hazara and KPK. is it bye bye for PML-N in hazara although its otherwise. i think PML-N supporters have been very complacent and pti supporters have convinced their families and friends. Just like i have convinced now my sister to vote for Qazi asad of PML-N in provincial assembly as he is a better man compared to yousuf ayub of PTI but she says her vote on NA is for IKHAN. wake up PML-N workers dont be compalcent.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 11:14 #
  32. aghaffar

    @msyedh
    brother name those NA seats in Punjab where PPP will win. You mentioned 30 seats.
    @xtra
    PMLN victory reasons:
    1. PMLN has choosen candidates in Punjab by thier own will at first priority.
    2. PMLN has made mega development projects.
    3. where PMLN was not strong, they adjusted PMLQ and PPP candidates.
    4. In rural areas, personal vote matters and thier is no constituency in PAK where thier is no rural area except Karachi.
    5. Bad Govt of PPP. No PPP compain in Punjab.
    6. NO PMLQ in Punjab. Chudaries compaining in Gujrat only for NA-104,105.
    PTI is the only threat to PMLN. PTI may not win many more seats but it can help PPP+PMLQ somewhere.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 11:51 #
  33. hasankhan

    PPP will win more than 30 seats in Punjab,I can bet.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 12:02 #
  34. Sharif Aadmi

    here r my predictions

    KPK PUNJAB plus Isb SINDh BAL FATA Total
    ANP 7 0 0 0 0 0 7
    PPP 4 16 32 0 0 0 52
    PML(N) 6 98 1 3 0 0 108
    PTI 1 13 0 0 0 0 14
    JI 2 0 0 0 0 0 2
    JUI 7 0 0 3 0 0 10
    JUI(S) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
    PML(Q) 0 16 0 0 0 0 16
    MQM 0 0 19 0 0 0 19
    PML(F) 0 0 6 0 0 0 6
    IND/MIS 7 7 3 8 12 272

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 13:49 #
  35. hypocrite

    Unless a party gets absolute majority it will be difficult to implement key initiatives to improve the economic, political and social conditions in Pakistan.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 14:51 #
  36. Ozzmad

    Salam Everyone,

    Thank you Admin for finally letting me post.

    I was looking for a new member introduction thread but couldn't find one. I apologize in advance for posting in someone else's thread.

    I am based in Dallas and Dubai, PML-N supporter and a long time reader of this forum. 5 of us are going to Karachi to vote in NA-250 for Saleem Zia. We know he is not going to win but my vote is still for Sher.

    Regards,
    Ozzmad

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 15:21 #
  37. khanseena1

    @Ozzmad

    Save ur trip, Saleem Zia has removed himself from NA 250 in favor of JI Naimutallah Khan, u can still vote for him for the PA seat from khi.
    Best of luck

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 15:30 #
  38. sipahi

    @msyedh

    "sipahi @

    PPP can support PTI and Imran Khan can be prime minister but then PTI have to support ppp and Q league for punjab government."

    So you see IK as PM only if he breaks his pledge not to make coalition with any party which was in government in previous parliament. Is that correct?

    Do you something to back it ?

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 15:48 #
  39. sipahi

    @ all

    Question: When one person is elected from multiple constituencies, are those counted as "one" to determine number of members for his party?
    a) To determine majority
    b) To allocate Women & Minority seats to the party

    For example, PTI wins from 75 seats with IK winning from 3 and MQ winning from 2 And PML (N) wins 74 seats with each member getting elected from one seat. Will PTI number counted as 75 or 72?

    Who will be asked to form government?

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 17:21 #
  40. mawan1971

    @sipahi
    Yes they will count 1 for the prime minister or leader of the house vote but I am not sure about quota of women/minority seats. Someone please verify.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 17:25 #
  41. sipahi

    Thanks mawan bhai

    So it is possible to have a PM of a party, which does not own largest set of membership in NA once re-election is done for those constituencies.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 17:38 #
  42. mawan1971

    @sipahi
    By-election will be held quite late, PM willbe decided before that on the basis one vote each for those who have multiple setas. PM is decided by hand raise in NA and obviously one person can raise only one (on a lighter note IK may insist to raise both of his hands to count two).

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 17:51 #
  43. sipahi

    @mawan bhai

    After by-election, PM might not represent largest party, assuming re-election results in wins for same party.

    In my example, PML (N) can have PM with 74 members but after re-election are done PTI can have 75 members.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 18:00 #
  44. mawan1971

    @sipahi
    Well, one or two votes will not mater that much as if there is coallation government it will be decided before by-election. If PTI & PML(N) end up very close it will be up to others who they join to make a coallation. (I Will not be able to comment further, as I am leaving out with family for few hours)

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 18:10 #
  45. sipahi

    @mawan

    Enjoy, that is most important.
    Say salaam to your family.

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 18:14 #
  46. tahirnaseem

    @mawan & sipahi
    you are right at one answer and wrong on other.
    vote of for MNA is one but the nomination for reserve seat based on parties total seats irrespective of one won at 4 seats can say like this
    if PML-N get 100 seats and almost five elected from 2 seats
    so vote for PM is 95 but ratio is 100 /272 = 36.7 % said 37% but if consider 95 then ratio is 34% and party may loss one seat. be remember PM selected by complete parliament (342 nos)including women and minorities

    please see the links

    source

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 19:45 #
  47. sipahi

    Thanks Tahirnaseem

    Posted 1 year ago on 05 May 2013 19:55 #

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