Elections are being held in NA-21, Mansehra-2, on 28th of Jan 2010. This seat hase been vacated due to sudden death of late Haji Faiz Muhammad who was PMLN candidate and won with overwhelming majority.
You are requested to please comment on the present candidates from PMLN, PPP and JUI who are in the run.
Thanks in anticipation.
Dr Farooq Bangash, London.
@bangash313
Welcome to pkpolitics 'discuss forum' as the very first addition to our ranks for the year 2010.
Welcome aboard.
It seems Umber Faiz has decided not to run and PMLN ticket has gone to Tahir Ali, Capt. Safdar's brother.
There are plenty of other candidates as mentioned here:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=216683
Odds seem to favor Salahuddin, the PPP cnadidate.
Nothing against him, but Tahir Ali has run previously and does not seem to have a strong following.
I don't know why Nawaz Sharif could not look outside his clan and find a winning candidate. Or, may be, PMLN logo will work miracles. I don't know.
Wassalam,
Gujjar Talwar
Hazara valley is traditionally a PML (A-Z) stronghold where other parties are almost non-existent including PPP, ANP & JUI which are other significant parties in NWFP.
Base on the history of this area, i think it would be one-sided affair in favour of PML-N.
It is true that Hazara is generally a PML Country and Nawaz Sharif is very popular but other parties (PPP, JI, JUI etc) do have good chances if they play their cards right.
In this case, Nawabzada Salahuddin of PPP is well positioned. He has previously represented that constituency and I hear that he has secured good endorsements from local interest groups. Most other parties will cut into PML following.
Given that PMLN nominee, Tahir Ali, has performed poorly in previous elections (as an independent), it is not a given that he will win. If Nawaz Sharif spends a lot of time there, things might change. PPP, being in power, can dole out development projects and influence a lot of votes.
ANP, PTI (of Imran Khan) and JUI-F have also fielded their candidates. I don't know much about any of them. It will be interesting to see how they perform.
I hear that JI candidate is an influential local doctor.
It will not be surprising if he pulls it through.
yk
Member
Hi people,
We had a very extensive discussion on this election last time. I was a die hard supporter of the late Faiz M Khan but alas!!
After his death the situation has become frantic in this area. Most of the people would vote for his daughter Umber Faiz but she gave the PML N ticket voluntarily to Tahir Ali. The reason being that her father's cousin Laiq Khan wanted to contest and did not support her.
Laiq Khan is Faiz M Khan's cousin, not true brother. He has no following in this area and is infamous for organised crime. Faiz Khan distanced himself from this criminal till his death bed. Laiq is Azam Khan Swati, minister for sci and tech, JUI F's true brother. Azam is the person supporting him and funding his futile campaign. Azam is a senator for JUI f. He has no support from the people of this area too.
yk
Member
Tahir Ali is an unknown entity and does not belong to this constituency. He lost his bond a few elections back. He has absolutely no following people from this area do not like outsiders representing them. He has absolutely no chance of winning, even less than Laiq Khan.
yk
Member
There are no staunch PML N votes here and there are a lot of undecideds,which swing in favour of the candidate of the day.
Zar Gul Khan would have had a strong chance but he took up PML Q's ticket. This was a bad decision. Q league is hated here and all pro Faiz Khan were also anti Q. This lowers his chances but he is 2nd favourite for this election. He came 2nd last time as well.
y nawaz sharif is giving tickets to his family only.y he thinks there is no body else to becme member of parlianment.
hamesha
Member
PTI according to all the surveys is the second most popular party in NWFP, interesting thing is that Niaz Muhammad Khan (PTI) has not been taken seriously by anybody. The undecided voter most likely will look towards change and optimism which with all due respect can not be seen in three main stream parties (PMK N&Q and PPP) this raises hope for Niaz Muhammad Khan (PTI)...
yk
Member
Nawaz Sharif like most politicians is a very short sighted tout favoring politician who will always support his cronies!
yk
Member
Now I would not vote for the Nawab because he is just useless. He became MNA 5 times but didnt do ****! If he brings up a list of achievements it still doesnt account for 5 times elect! In the government!
But he is a good politician, he has turned over into the PPP at this junction and got projects and cash allocated before the election. ANP is supporting PPP as well right now.
So with the government machinery behind him, his die hard 23000 voters (same as Zar Gul) and the absence of any other serious competition, he has the best chances this time. I would bet on him. And he might even end up completing the projects he announced, PPP always delivers, even is it is way too slow for our taste!
yk
Member
But whatever happens I hope noone votes for Laiq Khan, he is a well known thug, gangster, mafia boss, smuggler, adulterer, drunk. He stood up against his neice, Umber Faiz at such a critical and emotional time. And to top it off he is a JUI F candidate, of all ironical loads! JUI F deserves to be banned, they want to be in bed with the government and extremists all at once! You have to be kidding me!
For Godsake reject this phony!
I think Fazl Rehman's opportunism has exposed the true colors of religious politics. They just have a different garb but inside they are the same as anybody else.
Among the candidates in NA-21, Zar-Gul Khan had a strong showing last time. If Salahuddin is judged as a spent force, Zar-Gul might make it to the top.
Bilal Tarar
Members
3 days left...anyone got the latest?!
Iftikharkhan
Member
I would say Tahir should win because all other contesting candidates have been in power.Laiq has been Tehsil Nazim, Nawabzada has been elected five times from this constituency and zargul is being backed by sardar yousaf & Gushtasip.I dont like all of them although i dont like safdar and his brother Tahir but i want him to win this election.The reason i am hoping Tahir to win is bringing politics of all these people (well said by gujjartalwar as spent force) to an end.But it appears that there would be a neck to neck contest among salahuddin,zargul,laiq and tahir.
Asif
Blocked
Is tahir a symbol of democracy or the leftovers(puppets) of Generals?
drgulkhan
Member
Pakistan Tehreek-E-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan's two day visit has changed the whole situation of the NA-21 by-election in Mansehra.Thousands of people gathered in the five Jalsas of Chairman Khan in Bhirkund,Darband,Ugi,Lassan Nawab and Bafa.
Political Analysts now rate Pakistan Tehreek-e-insaf Candidate Niaz Khan Sarkheli in the top three candidates. It is not to be forgotten that Niaz Khan is up against PML-N candidate who is the brother of Captain Safdar (son in law of Nawaz Sharif), PML-Q candidate who is a former 2 time MPA,JUI-F candidate who is the brother of Federal Minister For Science And Technology Azam Swati and PPP candidate who is a former three time MNA from this seat. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has brought a big bang to the election environment and thousands of people of this constituency have pledged to vote for Niaz Khan.
drgulkhan
Member
http://dailyshamal.com/today.php
http://dailyshamal.com/today.php?pageNum_tday=5&totalRows_tday=14048
For latest news about elctions in Mansehra.
drgulkhan
Member
drgulkhan
Member
Sharifs want to keep it in the family.
Giving ticket to brother of their son in law.
parahoo
Member
@drgulkhan harees(greedy) politicians. selfish creatures.people of hazara should kick them hard and out this time. I pray that Imran Khan candidate wins and then follows his party agenda.
parahoo
Member
NIaz Khan SUrkheli to win this will be a good sign for the country and will really give me strong hope that the nation has woken up.look at cap safdar bringing his brother now. they cant keep playing with people of hazara. I have strong hope that the people of mansehra will vote for truth and the only truthful person among politicians is imran khan.
yk
Member
Lolxx..good commentary!
As regards to favorites, I don't think PTI has a chance of making it here, wont even be close second. All the candidates are having large meetings, Imran Khan can certainly draw crowds and he throws around anti American rhetoric for vote grabbing. But the people of this area have tribal affiliations, political affiliations and most certainly do vote for change as well.
It would be nice to see his candidate, even though the man standing on behalf of PTI is not really a charismatic kahuna, to see him win.
I would still bet on Salahuddin's horse to cross the line first.
drgulkhan
Member
bft1
Member
lates 'news'?!
news is wat comes frm jang or dawn
wat comes frm pti is propoganda
drgulkhan
Member
If you had bothered to click at the link you whould have seen that page contains some pictures and copypasted news from different newspapers.
bft1
Member
i apologise
i dint open coz of the pti link
yk
Member
This article is from the local newspaper of Abbottabad, Daily Shamal. It is a small time newspaper which is portraying almost every candidate as being very strong and is trying to market on sensationalism. I read it for fun and as a different source for local news, but believing it another thing.
If you read their articles online you would understand.
And their print space can be bought or next to nothing and any statement released.
Imran Khan can draw crowds, no doubt, so is everyone else in this campaign, everyone is drawing big crowds, but people coming to listen to you and people standing in line to vote for you are two separate things.
bft1
Member
jang and nawai waqt have reported that shahbaz sharifs jalsa(at laasa nawab) yest was one of the biggest in mansehras political history
PML-Q pervez elahi jalsa was 3 time bigger than shahbaz sharif , you ca see in 26 jan express news paper.thanks
drgulkhan
Member
PMLn ..PMlq and PPPP....all of them brought in people filled with buses from outside to make there jalsa look good.
drgulkhan
Member
At this moment it looks like a three way batle between:
PML q candidate , PPP/ANP candidate and PTI candidate Sarkheli
bft1
Member
@david
Shahbazs jalsa was on 26th evening, how can it be compared in a morning daily even b4 it happened
Ure welcome
drgulkhan
Member
PMLn people are not happy in Mansehra for PMLn giving ticket to a family member in place of someone who deserved it.
akbarkhan786
Member
Hi guys we have to wait a little till tomorrow’s night, but let me share ma prediction: (may b right or wrong)
Neck-and-neck fight is on the cards between Zargul of PML-Q and Nawabzada Salahuddin Saeed of PPP in the by-elections for NA-21 Mansehra. PML-Q nominee, Zargul Khan, emerged as the major beneficiary of the situation as he had resisted an army operation in Kala Dhaka against 150 religious seminaries some five years back. Resultantly, he was sent behind bars for three months, however, the operation was delayed and Zargul Khan emerged as a hero for Kala Dhaka inhabitants.
The Gujjar-Pathan-Awan-Syed alliance has greatly helped Zargul Khan of PML-Q to edge over his rival - Nawabzada Salahuddin, despite the fact that Nawabzada has been elected from this constituency for five times. However, he had been elected from PML-N ticket while this time he has switched to PPP which is not helping him.
Though the Nawabzada has launched so many development schemes with the help of federal and provincial governments in the area, yet he is legging far behind Zargul who is being fully backed by District Nazim Mansehra Sardar Mohammed Yousaf, who is heading this group. Moreover, Awan, Tanoli and Syeds have announced to support him.
Moreover, sitting MNA Sardar Shahjahan Yousaf of PML-Q, MPA Sardar Wajih-uz-Zaman Khan of PML (Like Minded), former federal minister Syed Qasim Shah, former MPA Shahzada Gustasip Khan, former MPA Tariq Khan Swati are backing him.
Kala Dhaka, the hometown of Zargul Khan, is thickly populated with mainly Pashtuns and has votes even more than 16 other union councils possess. More than 80 percent of votes are likely to be polled for Zargul Khan, a former MPA while his elder brother was elected from the same constituency for three times on an ANP ticket. Former MPA Shahzada Gustasip is backing Zargul from his home area of Pakhal.
Zargul is also likely to clinch major chunk from thickly populated Uggi city - thanks to the support from MPA Wajih-uz-Zaman. However, Laiq Mohammed Khan of JUI-F would also take his share from Uggi voters.
In my point of view Zargul gona win definetly. What you ppl say??
drgulkhan
Member
well he whould have won ..had he not chosen for PMLq..
People relate PML q with army operations and Musharraf.
And with teh corrupt sysytem.
What you mentioned above, reeks of influence that entices, induces, compels or forces people to vote while vote is a personal choice strictly speaking, 'by an individual-his and only his choice'.
A shame we never have a real vote than!
akbarkhan786
Member
well.. this would be the decision of the voters, but always keep in mind that ppl vote for their JANBA, BRADRY and morever to whom, affliated with. Personally am apposing PMLQ for what they have done in past with Musharraf, but ticket dosent matter, coz ppl rejected PMLN and voted for Shahjehan Yousaf.. despite what he had.. PMLQ or independently... You must keep that Syed, Gujjar, Awan and Sawati are combined under Sardar Yousaf.. and that is fact..
In the next 20 or so hours, results for NA21 will be available. Browsing through photos of public meetings for various candidates in "Daily Shamal", it seems Zar Gul of PMLQ has an edge.
http://www.dailyshamal.com/today.php?pageNum_tday=25&totalRows_tday=14205
PMLQ also seems to have its leadership in Mansehra intact. People like Sardar Yousuf, Gustasap Khan, Waji-u-Zaman and Qasim Shah wield a considerable influence and they are all backing their party candidate.
PMLN meetings appear not to be well attended. Their leadership apparently sensed the weaker position of their nominee, Tahir Ali. That may be why Nawaz Sharif opted to stay away and sent Shahbaz Sharif for the campaign.
Imran Khan's meetings were well attended but it is not likely that his candidate will win.
PPP candidate is doing good but does not appear to be in a clear lead. It is noticeable that Federal Information Minister, Qamar Zaman Kaira, being a Gujjar, made a personal appeal to Gujjar Braderi to vote for their candidate. This is an admission of the influence of Sardar Yousuf on his vote bank.
If Zar-Gul wins here and Sheikh Rashid is successful in NA55, PMLQ will get a big boost. At the same time PMLN's prestige will be seriously dented.
yk
Member
@gujjar talwar
Thanks for the update. You do have valid points. Even though I had a strong suspicion that Salahuddin had an edge. I am all for Zargul to win.
yk
Member
I know that Salahuddin has 23000 die hard supporters and PPP about 15000 in NA 21, which is enough to be deecisive here. I predict Salahuddin winning with 35000!
Will be an interesting result and I will be happy if Zargul wins!
This election will distroy fake popularity of muslim league N and his leadership, after this election they will be not able to claim that nawaz sharif and his party is most popular in pakistan, and then there will no credibility for bogus opinion surveys.
msyedh
akbarkhan786
Member
what we have noted as the dilema of local voters, its now closed fight with tow candidates, Nawabzada and Zargul.. anyone can win, however laiq Muhammad seems to capture 3rd and Haji Tahir apparently on4 4th position.
bft1
Member
congratulations to all PTI members on the much-predicted and fussed about landslide victories in swat n mansehra. This calls for an immediate resignation by the PM n replaced by IK.
Gen Kiani to be replaced by Fazlullah and CJ Iftikhar to be replaced by Qazi Hussain.
Asif
Blocked
bft1
The followers of Generals & their Leftovers are the Neo-Democrats.
What a democrat you guys are! Who are ridiculing/humiliating to the ones who believe to hold office only thru AWAMs vote & not by entering to the corridors of power thru back doors.
The followers of leftovers are pi$$ing off. Its a treat to watch & I am enjoying you guys level of tolerance & democratic behaviour.
Keep it up.
bft1
Member
asif saab thats the point im tryin to drive home, PTI indulges in extensive criticism of other democratic forces n they shud realise the diff btw them n non-democratic forces but khan has always played into the hands of molvis n other establishment stooges, i wanted to vote PTI in 2008 but ur khan left the field open fr musharaf jus like he did in 1999, khan shud make sum friends in the political arena rather than going against everyone, next time if pml n or any other party makes the govt khan shud join the coalition take an imp ministry n deliver fr the ppl of pakistan but as expected he'l sit in the oposition n disapoint again, so im left wit no option but to suport shahbaz sharif coz i see him 'trying' n havin gud intentions unlike other politicians, khan wil wait to join govt til the day he has a majority in the NA but im afraid the country duznt hav that much time to wait.
I hope khan proves me wrong
We needed him in the assembly not sum 'lota' jaazi khan
bft1
Member
it hurts wen q league levels allegations against democratic forces n a day ltr u hear khan echoing their voices
Asif
Blocked
bft1
I am all the way against those who held offices under Generals & raised their STATURE just for power.
Its been Generals & their Leftovers are ruling since Gen Ayubs take over.
So I have no sympathy of whatsoever level for them. And I do respect Khan since he is using his STATURE to change the dynamics & standards of AWAM to standup against this DUO of Generals & their Leftovers instead of the other way round.
iqbaladnan
Member
well...Daily Jang is reporting something else.
http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/jan2010-daily/29-01-2010/u19302.htm
After 150/289 polling stations results
#1. Haji Tahir (PMLN)
#2. Laiq Muhammad (JUI)
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