The scene in Lahore has changed totally from what it was in the run-up to the 2008 general election. The Jamaat-i-Islami and Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf had both boycotted the 2008 polls as was initially the intention of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, which was later on persuaded to join the electoral race. Come June 2010 and these three parties were fiercely fighting it out among themselves for a mere Punjab Assembly seat.
It was widely expected that the PML-N will retain the seat which it had won in 2008, only for its candidate to be disqualified two years later for possessing a fake degree. This is how it has turned out but the fact that it was not exactly a runaway victory for the PML-N and more so the use of force by the Shahbaz Sharif government to ensure a win for the party`s candidate Malik Saif-ul-Mulook Khokhar has led to speculation about the fall in the popularity of PML-N and its leaders.
At the same time there are voices which somehow find the reason and the conviction to hail the rise of Imran Khan`s PTI as a political force to reckon with in the country, in Punjab or at least in Lahore where Mr Khan belongs and where he runs his prestigious cancer hospital.
Before Imran Khans admirers celebrate the promise signified by the large number of votes secured by PTIs Zaheer Abbas Khokhar in the by-election held in PP-160 on Thursday, they will do well to have a second look at how the constituency politics works and how it worked in this particular case.
Backed by the mighty Punjab administration, the PML-Ns Saif-ul-Mulook Khokhar got more than 27,000 votes in the by-election. He was followed by PTIs Zaheer Abbas Khokhar who secured more than 19,000 votes and JIs Jahangir Bara with more than 7,000 votes in an area which includes JIs headquarters, Mansoora.
For starters it is quite clear that the PML-N was denied some Jamaat votes this time which it had got in 2008 since there was no JI candidate in the run then. Similarly, it can be said with some confidence that in the contest on Thursday, the PTI man benefited from the absence from the race of the Pakistan Peoples Party which didnt field a candidate to honour a commitment with the PML-N.
So what, the PTI supporters would ask, drawing on the old logic which says that a good showing in any election is the result of right alliances with the right people at the right time. In this instance, however, the analysts have to keep in mind two points; one, the shrinking of the once promising PTI from a party calling for national reforms – sometimes revolution – to an outfit that finds it prudent to indulge in conventional constituency politics, and, two, the presence of a strong Biradari factor.
Lets first discuss point number two. Despite all the party banners and party rallies that had been on display the fight in the PP-160 was also a clash between two groups of the Khokhar clan which wields considerable influence in the area. PTIs Zaheer Abbas Khokhar represented the political branch of Khokhars which had been defeated by their rival Khokhars in the 2008 polls. Karamat Khokhar, a PPP candidate, had lost the National Assembly seat from the area to a lesser known Afzal Khokhar of the PML-N in 2008. The margin was big – more than 20,000 votes separated the winner from the losing candidate – but still, Karamat managed to poll some 38,000 votes. The same Zaheer Abbas who had a PTI ticket in 2010 was a PPP nominee in the 2002 general election and won the National Assembly seat in a tight contest. He had the support of Karamat Khokhar, his close relative who was barred from standing in the election because back then he didnt have a BA degree (Karamat got the degree later on and was eligible to contest in 2008.) Now was it a miracle that the same Karamat Khokhar was spotted on Thursday on television accusing the PML-N of rigging the vote against his candidate, Zaheer Abbas?The PTIs choice of the candidate for PP-160 brings us to discussing point number two in our list. As mentioned earlier, in 2002, Zaheer Abbas Khokhar was an MNA belonging to the PPP. Not too long after that, he joined the ranks of the PPP-Patriots for a place in the team of General Pervez Musharraf. Much as Imran Khan would lambaste the PML-N leaders for their empty cries of revolution and at the same time of rigging the PP-160 election, his own selection has been reminiscent of a leader desperate for small successes built on big compromises.
And this was not the first time Mr Khan was caught attempting a reverse sweep considering his earlier claims that he was different from the lot of politicians we have been blessed with. A few months ago he had chosen a PML-N reject to fight on a PTI ticket from another provincial constituency in Lahore. A while earlier, in a by-election in Rawalpindi, the PTI could do no better than allow an old Jamaat man to fight as its nominee.
Clearly, the PTIs experiments in constituency politics have been by design. These corroborate the suspicions the partys leader has generated with his words and lack of action in the political arena right since the launch of his party in the 1990s. The dirty terrain he had to encounter in the PP-160 leaves him with the same old two options. He should return full time to his social work or go the long haul in building a party which is actually different. Cameos don`t work here, skipper.
http://archives.dawn.com/archives/42798
Posted 7 months ago on 15 Oct 2011 11:48
# 
