PKPolitics Discuss » Elections 2008 - National Assembly Seats Analysis » NA-91 to NA-120

NA 108 - Mandi BahaudDin-I

(26 posts)
  1. Posted 8 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 3:20 #
  2. Iqbal

    In NA-108 PML (N) Candidate has bought first PML (N) Zila Saddar Dewan Mushtaq. Assured him (Mushtaq) that He will do his daughter's election compaign for him and gifted him Prado Jeep as well. Only money politics, they dont have any roots in people of NA-108. They came in Politics by help of PML (Q). Then during as MNA they made money. Now PML (N) Leaders has to suffer a bad defeat here. No future of PML (N) in Mandi Bahauddin Zila, because of corrupt Zila Saddar of MB. Dewan Mushtaq dont have any vote bank in his own union council (in his own ward), he is having defeats since 1997 Elections.

    Posted 8 years ago on 22 Dec 2007 21:48 #
  3. gm

    @ earthzerathz

    from NA-108 PMLN candidate is Mumtaz Ahmed Tarar and NOT any one of dewan mushtaq family.

    For corresponding provincial assembly seats , one is given to brother of Binyamin rizvi family ( tariq yaqoob) form phalia and other is given to faiza mushtaq (d/o dewan mushtaq). so for national assembly seat, PMLN is in god position.
    Overall an interesting triangluar contest is expected.
    PPPP got a setback as their ticekt holder Zafrulla tarar switcehd to PMLQ and got ticekt there.
    PMLQ got setback because their ex MNA ejaz chaudhry i contesting as indipendent candidate.

    regarding dwan mushtaq, his wife was candidate for PMLN in 2002 also (but lost to PMLQ candidate), so this time his daugghter is there and it makes no difference.
    And if he was in PMLN in 2002, so before that how come he came to politics thru PMLQ?? i guesss before 2002 elections there was no PMLQ.

    Posted 8 years ago on 22 Dec 2007 22:54 #
  4. engrzia

    2002 ELECTIONS:
    1 Mr.Ijaz Ahmad Chaudhary Pakistan Muslim League(QA) 70060
    2 Mr.Ijaz Ahmed Sahi Independent 1860
    3 Mr.Amjad Hussain Tarar Independent 2028
    4 Syed Muhammad Mehfooz Mashadi Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan 37422
    5 Mr.Zafarullah Tarar Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 60424
    6 Mr.Muhammad Zaheer Pakistan Awami Tehreek 1066
    7 Maj ® Sher Muhammad Gondal Advocate Tameer-e-Pakistan Party 736
    Valid Votes 173596
    Rejected Votes 5352
    Total Votes 178948
    Registered Voters 363575
    Percentage of Votes Polled to Registered Voters 49.22 %

    Posted 8 years ago on 23 Dec 2007 6:55 #
  5. argbpk

    PML(N) has no vote here as a party.most voters vote here on baradery base. I belong to this constituency.I am also relative of Ijaz Chaudary.He has a lot of money.His brother is tehsil nazim.He belong to gujjar family but this this constiuency most peoples are jatt.last time he won due to money and support of chaudry bradaran. this time he did notgot ticket from pml so he is contesting independently. pmln cadidate has withdrawn(mumtaz tarar who has been mna twice or thrice 1985(independent),1988 (ppp),ninties(pml)not sure he won or lost)
    this time competition will be triangular
    chances are
    pmlq -50%
    ijaz ch. (independent) -40%
    ppp -40%
    mafhooz mashadi(jup) -5%

    Posted 8 years ago on 25 Dec 2007 14:39 #
  6. gm

    Mumtaz tarar has withdrawn in favor of ch ejaz and gives him more votes outside his own clan. so in this way ejaz chaudhry still has more chances to win. of course one negative point is that he is Ex-MNA form this seat.

    Posted 8 years ago on 25 Dec 2007 15:32 #
  7. bilalr

    Intresting thing for MB din is both PPP and PML are divided into two two parts. so result can be very strange on both NA-108 and NA-109 seats.
    Strong person of PPP Zafarullah Tarar left PPP and join PML (Q) and M Aslam senator also angry to PPP on refusing of national assembly ticket.

    good edge for PML Q is that it has strong candidate zafarullah tarar who has good influnce on rural area of NA-108 and strong tarar family but PPP candidate also belong to same family.

    good edge for PML N is that he will get vote from gujar and Mumtaz tarar fmaily as well as Anti PPP and PML Q vote. In city Ch Ijaz is strong from rest of candidates and able to purchase poor people votes by his money.

    IN facts this area is strong for PPP by history and also PPP able to get emotional vote by utlizing current incident. on the other side PPP do not nominate strong and influnce person as compare to PML Q and PML N.

    MMA Syed Muhammad Mehfooz Mashadi is also good and well know person and have some vote bank but it can be effected by MMA current bad situation.
    i am stil not sure whether he is going to particpate or not because Noorani party bycotte it.

    Posted 8 years ago on 07 Jan 2008 21:00 #
  8. mian

    ch bradran are so sure of their success in this district , they have not evenshown up here yet.
    once they will come for votes jatts will flock to them and they have to clean sweep in this area to becomePM.

    Posted 8 years ago on 08 Jan 2008 9:32 #
  9. humayun_dgk

    Brother according to your predictions PMLQ will win 275 out of 272 general seat of National Assembly. You can increase PMLQ seat more than 275 if you want.But one million dollar question is, who will vote for PMLQ? Patwari? Health Workers? or Farashtay?

    Posted 8 years ago on 08 Jan 2008 20:31 #
  10. bilalr

    but PMLQ will give not easey time to rest of candidate. in this seat we can consider tight competition with PML N Vs PML Q and Vs PPP
    don't be under estimate any one of them

    Posted 8 years ago on 09 Jan 2008 16:26 #
  11. argbpk

    i saw the prediction of the admin on this seat and i was astonished to know that his prediction is mumtaz tarar will win. a lay man know this that if a candidate has hope until 10% to win he do not withdraw. candidate withdraw only if he is sure to lose or he recieves a lot of money for why mumtaz withdraws it is clear he may have took a lot of money from ijaz ch. some predictions are just wishes and baseless

    Posted 8 years ago on 12 Jan 2008 9:52 #
  12. gm

    i think this prediction is based on either ch ejaz or mumtaz tarar remaining in the contest.

    As PMLN provincial candidates also did not support mumtaz tarar but he was given ticket to regard his loyality for party in recent past. Later he himself decided to withdraw in favor of ch ejaz, so now PMLN have their provincial candidates aligned in campaign with ch ejaz and ch ejaz is having edge over other candidates.

    Posted 8 years ago on 12 Jan 2008 14:14 #
  13. argbpk

    ejaz ch is in contest due to his money and baradery not due to nawaz sharif. he was in the running even mumtaz was contesting.even we are supporting ijaz ch. and my father is sure that he will win. but as a neutral i see three way competition on this seat. and my prediction is
    1-pmlq will win
    2-ijaz ch(runner up)

    Posted 8 years ago on 12 Jan 2008 16:49 #
  14. gm

    @ argbpk

    Jat votes r divided there, so this candidates of PPP and PMLQ will b having disadvantage.

    In Mandi bahauddin city area, PMLN do have a strong vote and they snatched nazimship even during musharaf regime.

    Ejaz chaudhry left PMLQ and joined PMLN and wanted to get the ticket. Also support of provincial assembly candidates is always important and he is now getting that from PMLN candidates.

    U did tell us that PMLQ candidate will win but u did not give justification for that any way.

    my prediction is otherwise.

    1-ch ejaz

    Posted 8 years ago on 12 Jan 2008 19:16 #
  15. bilalr

    why you are not considering PML Q as runner or winner. Mr zafaruallah Tara have good edge of his family and strong one as his personality as compare to rest of the candidates. here Mehfoos Mushadi contesting as Independent candidate. can influnce on the resutl atleast break vote of other party candidate.
    but winner can be one of them with equal probability

    Ijaz Vs Zafarullah Vs Tariq

    Posted 8 years ago on 12 Jan 2008 20:56 #
  16. argbpk

    Brother zafrulla tarar is one time mna and two time runner up.his father was also mna from this area. majority of the jatt clan is with him. in pp16 basma riaz neice of shujahat hussain is contesting.tariq raika is a new candidate.he will only get pure ppp vote or some of his relatives.i am not saying zafrulla will get too much lead. there will be a contest. three way. i took part in campains in 1993 and 1997 against zafrulla tarar. so i knew from where he will get votes.may be he will lose from city. but will win from rural areas.

    Posted 8 years ago on 12 Jan 2008 21:54 #
  17. mian

    1=from the city hameeda wahid ud idin has lot of aran votes ,those will go to zafar ullah tarar.
    2=ch pervaiz elhi is himself running on one mpa seat that is why ,ch bradran have special influence there ,so tarar of pmlq will have edge,
    3=pmln is changing ticket too much ,and ijaz is not that loyal to nawaz sharif ,
    result============pmlq wins

    Posted 8 years ago on 13 Jan 2008 6:42 #
  18. safshan

    @javed bro

    Again you are present here, like in every constituency. I wish I can give you 80 thousand printed ballot papers so you can stamp those in favour of your beloved PMLQs. Only this is the way PMLQ can win now, or your buddies in agencies can help. Otherwise ground realities show PMLQ will be wiped out in Feb18 elections.

    Posted 8 years ago on 21 Jan 2008 3:41 #
  19. mian

    @ safshan
    if pmlq lost the election , then i will congratulate u, but on these seats of gujrat mandi sialkot . anti pmlq candidates even dont have agents bro.
    i realize pmlq will lose in big cities ,but they r only 30%,
    pppp has some share there too.
    u can t ignore mqm(PMLQ) in karachi and haiderabad and mma in nwwfp

    Posted 8 years ago on 21 Jan 2008 8:29 #
  20. safshan

    @javed brother
    I gathered information about this constituency from few of my friends and PMLQ seems to be in much trouble here but as you and your agency already have made up their mind for a surprise I think you are right. Remember in 2002 elections PLMQ got 70000 votes with very little vote bank around and actually PPPs candidate had won the seat but the ghost vote played again. Look at the figures 50% votes were polled whereas the national average was around 37%. What a shame.

    Posted 8 years ago on 07 Feb 2008 17:30 #
  21. Iqbal

    PML N koi seat desrve nahi kerti in District MB. Beacuse candidates have following qualities: Lota-ism, no back ground of politics, promoting family members and easy to impress by money.

    Posted 8 years ago on 10 Feb 2008 21:59 #
  22. argbpk

    in this constituency situations is changed now. first it was q league seat . but now a three way tough competition. i think ejaz ch is leading at the moment but ppp also very good in the race.
    so in my opinion at the momen
    N league 36%
    PPP 33%
    Q league 31 %

    Posted 7 years ago on 13 Feb 2008 11:58 #
  23. mian

    i would say , 33% pppp
    realy good fight on this seat

    Posted 7 years ago on 13 Feb 2008 20:57 #
  24. Iqbal

    Clean Sweep of PPPP from Mandi Bahauddin, may be only PP-116 Hameeda Can win but very difficult to say for Hameeda or Tariq Sahi.

    Posted 7 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 7:49 #
  25. ChaudhryAsad

    Join Discussion at the Last Moment.

    A Little Difference of Votes Between Tariq and Ejaz, Hard to Say Who\'s Gone Be Number One.
    Zafarulla holds 3rd Position.

    Posted 7 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 23:36 #
  26. ChaudhryAsad

    One thing more if Ch Aslam or Nazar Gondal would contest on this seat. For sure PPP Wins becuase both of them has strong afilitaion with PPP, both of them holds strong Personality Vote and very well Educated People.

    Posted 7 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 23:43 #

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