PKPolitics Discuss » Elections 2008 - National Assembly Seats Analysis » NA-1 to NA-30
NA 24 - DI Khan-I
(16 posts)-
Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 4:00 #
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NA 24 D.I. Khan in 2002
Sanaullah Khan Mian Khel PML(Q) 26860
Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman MMA 43124
Faisal Karim Kundi PPP 36891Valid Votes 110608
Rejected Votes 2445
Total Votes 113053
Registered Voters 267513
Percentage of Votes Polled to Registered Voters 42.26 %Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 7:36 # -
Fazlur Rehman is in deep trouble from this constituency. Thats why he is also contesting from Bannu which is considered a safer seat. Last time around he won by about 6,000 votes and since then has lost much of his popularity. He was even said to be hackled during last eid sermon.
This is a seraiki speaking area and Fazlur Rehman never found it easy winning from here because the staunch deobandi vote is not in majority here.
Faisal Karim Kundi, the PPP candidate is British educated guy and quite popular. He gave Fazl a run for his money last time and should comfortably be the first past the post this time around, especially since the Q-league candidate Sanaullah Miankhel has also withdrawn in his favour.
RESULT: PPP victory
Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 7:45 # -
Its not a cup of tea for Fazl ur Rehman this time around, but still I wouldn't call call his defeat so confidently.
Its going to be a tough contest here.
Faisal Karim Kundi, offered strong opposition last time. This time he has a reasonable chance to win, at least will be a very strong opposition. One reason why Maulan is campaigning so strongly there. But note that PPP also has lost huge popularity in the last few years.
Also, Umer Farooq of the MianKhels, (Sanaullah brother) is contesting election against him, and he has a solid vote bank, Sanaullah Miankhel is considered anyway a provincial level candidate, while Umer Farooq Miankhel defeated FazlurRehman in 1997 elections.
So saying Sanaullah Miankhel is not there, is going to help Kundi, is not true.
Apart from the national graph of FazlurRehman, on more local level, Maulana has used lots of NWFP governement resources for projects in this area, including some really big names, like Gomal Medical College, and Mufti Mehmood Complex. He is also campaigning very hardly, he has not been out of the area so far during the election campaign. He also enjoys support of a big fraction of LG Nazims and others.
So its going to be very close election, but I think chances of Maulana still slightly overweigh that of Kundi.
Posted 4 years ago on 21 Dec 2007 0:55 # -
AB TERA KIYA HO GAA KALIYA(FAZLU)??
Posted 4 years ago on 21 Dec 2007 2:52 # -
Hey guys,
Do u see any chance there that our nation can get rid of Fazl ur Rehman sort of people? what do people think about him there? sorry I dont agree with his politics but is there people who thinks that he is doing good for his area or Pakistan?Posted 4 years ago on 15 Feb 2008 20:34 # -
I guess every body is cursing maulana and no body is realising that he is big political figure in pakistan. he has great influence in Talban and religious people, he has done lots of development work in DIK,
DIK is a very poor area with less resources and due to this big personality DIK is getting benefit
If he is defeated from here people will not get lots of funds and development money.
we are sitting here in europe or amrica and do not know ground reality of pak politics. we believe every thing from media that is biased with Molvi and specially Maulana fazal ur rehmen.
MMA did great development and progressive work in last five years, Musharaf was making bad comment about MMA Govt abroad but without help of federal govt these guys did not very good but good work,
Education, health and urban and rural development was their target but unfortunately this time they will not form govt due to bycott of JI, other wise people of NWFP want to bring them again in powerPosted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 7:37 # -
I agree with abhmd, in that people like us sitting US and Europe, are not fully aware of ground realities and people priorities.
And especially, its very hard to make any assessment about religious, nationalist and other small parties. The reason being our limited sources of information. Our main sources are news on the web, blogs and sites like pkpolitics, and few would have access to broadcast media.
The problem is that these sources represent really a minority of our society or of the political realities. In case of MMA this and other PR stuff is their major weakness.
I don\'t imply, that MMA is as popular as it was earlier, but it is no way in a bad shape as portrayed here on pkpolitics and other places like this.
People in the province will not judge Maulana Fazl ur Rehman, by his \"alleged\" underhand support of Musharaf, rather they will be judged solely by the provincial govt. performance, which was by far better than any government, except the one of Khan Qayum Khan.
They address, very fundamental and far-reaching issues, agree or not, that no one could address. Only govt. which was willing to tackle the superior bureaucratic mafia, was that of Mehtab Abbasi, who didn\'t get a fair chance to be judged now.
MMA introduced a new power structure in the province, and NWFP becomes the first province to \"almost\" eradicate Khan-ism, while others, unfortunately are still stuck with Sardars, waderas and chaudhries.
rest later
Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 8:54 # -
As I posted earlier, I would say, Maulana FazlurRehman, still has a better chance to win, his constituency. He is running from Bannu, but thats what he did last time also. And thats the norm for big party leaders, they can\'t risk it, for them the payoff is too big that they don\'t look at small probabilities.
He has a fair chance, because he is running the strongest campaign, even though Kundi has lot of money and he is spending lots of it. But Maulana has 3 brothers running from the same area, they have strong contacts, and their last term developmental record is not that bad.
Sometime, last year, when I visited Pakistan twice and traveled around in the province discussing with people, intellectuals and politicians, I made a prediction that MMA will win 75% of what they had at that time. But now MMA is not in the elections so we can\'t say anything.
Even though I am a supporter of PTI (of Nawaz Sharif for elections sake), I still don\'t think MMA govt. did so badly, that JUI will be in trouble.
Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 9:04 # -
Well if he is good for the area and Pakistan then he must win.I must agree that I didnt have very good feelings about him but all we want is better and dedicated people for Pakistan,So if he is the one then I Pray for his success as for all others who are serving Pakistan.
Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 9:33 # -
Well at least FR is better than Qazi ,NS, PTI etc.......nice & rational analysis.............
Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 9:58 # -
Well obviously he deserves to win because he is the only politician in the country or should I say in the world who knows the art of being in government as well as the opposition leader at the same time. He\'s great isnt he. HYPOCRITE.
Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 10:39 # -
Mr Janan
I would not agree with you here, not on the potential number of seats of MMA but on your so called change of power structure in the society. It was the PEOPLE of the province who tried their best to change the power structure by electing these Mullas, but the effort went in vain. These Mullas proved to be as lethal as their predecessors ....when they got the power and offcourse the money.
Secondly, Khanism has never been an issue in our province. Its the general trend that whoever has money has power, in our province not every khan has money and not every person with money is khan.Still If you want to give credit for change in power structure (poor vs rich, not khan vs ordinary) of the society then the man on the street who voted actually deserves it, although it went in vain.
I know many of these mullas who were poor but now after grabing the opportunity used full accelerator and collected as much as they could do. They are now behaving the same way as the other richers of our society.
Do you know about Fazl and his family now. Four of them r contesting ..... The New Khan in Town .
Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 15:53 # -
Hi
First to FKhan: with all due to respect your views, I have to add to your comment, that if that is the way it goes, then I will name a few more who deserve much more than that.
This word \"hypocrite\" especially with reference to Maulana Fazl ur Rehman, (MFR), typically means the following, at times he didn\'t do what I wanted him to do, hence he is hypocrite.
But if you look at their history, their whole political philosophy has been that way. Now you might disagree with that. They have never been doing confrontational politics, they have never been in favor of dissolution of the governments. You can check their records during Ayub, Bhuttos, (govt and also the follow up of 77 elelction), the Zia era and the 90\'s.
What happened now, is they got their message making to the masses, because of the \"Enlightened Moderation\" of Gen Musharaf and credited to their coalition with other religious parties. (Fall of Taliban also added to it though).
Now if you say he has been in govt in last 5 years, I bet he is smart enough he would have made sure he preserve NWFP govt for at least one other term. He could have gotten \"Hasba bill\" approved (not matter how cosmetics but could have been a big campaign motto). Why didn\'t he get the Power Royalty, for the province. Half of it he would have eaten, and on the rest he would have made his constituencies happy.
If he was with Musharraf, Musharraf is still in power why is his party losing the election now.Those who were in power behind the curtains, were those who were meeting him secretly, those who had their B-team in cabinet, those who got NRO for themselves, those who were meeting the Attorney General in Dubai, just weeks after their leader murder, those who have been regularly negotiating for \"democracy sake\" in Islamabad before even the \"chehlum\" of their leader. And now those who are going to win the elections and going to be in power.
Now about was MFR the opposition leader, yes he was. Despite being opposed to resignation he did resign and did let go his govt. in NWFP, just to keep the opposition united. What an irony of Pakistan politics, as Mohsin Bhopali puts it \"Manzil unhe mili jo hamsafar na the\". He was the one who had to make the biggest sacrifice, its easy to let go your 1 MNA seat or your 14 seats, but its very difficult to let 50 MNA , 61 MPA and one govt go. But he swallowed it.
Its good he opposed it early on, so that he can go to elections, for others except a few, you were not willing to be part of NA under Musharraf, excuse which NA are you campaigning for now, Isn\'t Musharraf still there, Isn\'t judiciary in the worst of its life.
The only problem, as I said in last post, is their weak PR. All of them are hypocrites of varying degrees, but some can get away with it. Some can come to TV, and says in one sitting Only MMA is allowed to participate in elections in FATA, and in the same breath says, our party candidate in Kurram Agency has been attacked.
rest later,
JananPosted 4 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 6:06 # -
@ Utmankhel1
I couldn\'t agree more that it was the people of the region who opted and voted for change of power structure. Because only they suffered.
But guess, why didn\'t they do the same earlier?
I agree that Khanism has not been as bad as it could have been. And I agree due to collective behavioral uniqueness of the people of the area, the evils of Khanism didn\'t manifest itself as it did in other parts of the country. But not that it was never an issue.
It was an issue and people suffered by it, people are kept intentionally unaware, uneducated and backward (at least in the political sense) just for the bread and butter of Khans.Now, thats a bitter fact, that a society can never be with a vacuum of power, when a power structure is dismantled something else has to take its place. Thats kinda a social law. But its not always bad, with the evolution of the society and with upgradation of collective morality the new power is always better than its predecessor.
Some of them might have made a fortune for themselves, and thats always debatable. And that doesn\'t make them worst then their predecessors or their competitors, as long as we don\'t invent a new criterion to judge only them by.
I know MFR has with his three other brothers is contesting election, so he is just fulfilling the vacuum. But they have been in the local politics since decades, not only one brother I must mention. He had one brother MNA and one MPA last term also.
Nevertheless thats not a good things that they are converging so much to family politics in the locality, But again you can have a comparison with other political parties of the country and he wouldn\'t look that ugly.
I want to add one more thing to what abhmd and justpakistani said: Given the situation that the country is facing, with respect to current divide in the society, the Afghan war, and other strategic issue, Only he and Nawaz Sharip are the person who we can look upto. Not that they are the wisest of politician, but because they are \"Made in Pakistan\" and they represent the ordinary people more than any other, and hence they have the collective wisdom of the people. That is what we need to address the issue surrounding us.
PS: I apologize for it was a too long, but it was long coming. Also I didn\'t want to offend anyone I am sorry if somebody got offended by me talking about his/her political idea.
Janan
Posted 4 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 6:27 # -
@Janan
Perhaps you have giving a good explanation!!!!!!! But I reckon we should \"call a spade a spade\". And the sooner the better.Obviously all the WISDOM of politics in Dera is in the Maulana family since 4 brothers are contesting elections. I have no objection to even the fifth brother (Govt. servant) contesting the elections, if Mushy can do it (courtesy Maullana Sahib and co) why not other govt servants. I m wondering when is he next going to perform Umra. God Bless Him with all his recent wealth.
Posted 4 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 9:20 #
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