PKPolitics Discuss » Elections 2008 - National Assembly Seats Analysis » NA-31 to NA-60

NA 48 - Islamabad-I

(13 posts)

  1. admin
    Administrator

    Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 3:52 #

  2. engrzia
    Member

    @ admin
    Sorry couldnt see link to NA48 and NA49 so i started separate thread for that. Pasting same contents here so you may delete those threads if feel appropriate. THANKS
    ---------------------------------------------------

    ELECTION 2002 Results:
    Mian Muhammad Aslam Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan 40365
    Dr. Babar Awan Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 28775
    Mr.Sahibzada Ahmed Raza Khan Qasuri Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf 5310
    Mr.Munawar Mughal Pakistan Muslim League(QA) 3915
    Syed Zafar Ali Shah Pakistan Muslim League(N) 3893
    [Percentage of Votes Polled to Registered Voters 47.07 %]
    ----------------------
    EDUCATED GUESS:
    *** This constituency comprises of population in Urban (city) area of Islamabad except (G5-G6). I am resident of same area and from islambad city historically almost 80% voters are pro PML-N.
    *** However in 2002 elections a drastic and very obvious tilt has been observed towards Jamate Islami. Also PML-N couldnt have proper arrangments and majority of their voters casted their votes for JI candidate (Mian Aslam-known as a quite social, gentle and educated young business man) who consequently won by considerable lead.
    *** I guess that in Elections 2008, PML(N) candidate will win by taking around 35000 votes following PPP candidate (~ 25000) and there might be decrease in casted votes.

    Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 5:53 #

  3. Adonis
    Member

    The majority votes in this constituency are also rural. In fact in all of Islamabad, urban votes are few and fewer still are polled because most people belong to other places and go to their hometowns to cast votes. This constituency includes large villages like Golra Sharif, Tarnol and Sang jani.

    The constituency is indeed predominantly pro PML(N) as is the rest of Pothohar region. In 2002, teh PML(N) candidate Zafar Ali Shah hardly ran a campaign here as he was also contesting from pindi. He was not consedered a serious candidate and tahts why all teh right wing vote went to the stringest anti PP candidate i.e. Mian Aslam of Jammat i Islami. He is not contesting this time due to JI boycott.

    The PML(N) candidate Anjum Aqeel Khan is a local from golra and in the absence of JI candidate dividing the right wing vote, should win hands down.

    PML(Q) is virtual non-entity in this constituency. Although its candidate Rizwan Sadiq is trying to run a campaign using his monetary clout but his situation is pretty hopeless.

    The PPP candidate Dr. Israr Shah is a vet from lahore who lost his legsin the bomb blast in Islamabad kutcehry. He was trying to ride on sympathy wave but that wave soon evaporated when BB took a stand against teh restoration of judges. His biggest drawback is that he is a lahori punjabi who cannot even speak the local poothohari language. If he had been a national level leader, that drwaback could have been overcome, but as he is not therefore he is only likely to collect votes of hardcore jiyalas which are dwindling day by day.

    RESULT: PML(N) victory.

    Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 6:42 #

  4. billy
    Member

    pml(n) is winning in this constituency easily.

    Posted 4 years ago on 07 Jan 2008 20:33 #

  5. Anonymous

    ANJUM AQEEL KHAN of PML-N will win easily, if elections are held on 18-Feb-08.

    Posted 4 years ago on 16 Jan 2008 13:47 #

  6. safshan
    Member

    Due to some internal fighting PMLN suffered heavily in 2002 elections and most of its voters voted for JI candidate. This time around situation is really changed and PMLN has clear edge in this constituency. PMLQ is very weak and its candidate is even talking against PMLQs leadership and Musharraf and I guess by doing so he will be not getting GHOSTS votes, necessary for smooth sailing for PMLQ. PPP is in second position right now.

    Posted 4 years ago on 19 Jan 2008 22:52 #

  7. Adonis
    Member

    PML(N) does seem to be having a cake walk. PPP is a distant second at the moment, while PML(Q) is unlikely to get even five thousand votes.

    Posted 4 years ago on 24 Jan 2008 6:26 #

  8. mfarooqg
    Member

    PML(N)\'s candidate Anjum Aqeel Khan is definite winner

    Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 10:59 #

  9. dr_abrar
    Member

    @mfarooqg

    well neutrally speaking what do u think is the real % chances of his win( keeping in mind the % of rigging)? and secondly what type of person is he, does anybody have any info about that?

    Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 11:44 #

  10. Adonis
    Member

    I guess it is not that important anymore what type of person any candidate is, at least for national assembly elections. If even an angel had been contesting on Q-league ticket, he would have huge problems getting votes.

    Posted 4 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 20:38 #

  11. engrzia
    Member

    I am reacalling that he first post to pkpolitics NA-constituencies discussion was posted out by me in this thread two months back :) and now happy to conclude that after my recent conversation PML(N) seems in easy to win position.

    Posted 4 years ago on 18 Feb 2008 2:13 #

  12. engrzia
    Member

    http://www.elections.com.pk
    --------------------------------
    http://www.elections.com.pk/results2002detail.php?constId=1270&st=1&toggle=3

    THANKS ALLAH ... as per my expectation above ... PML(N) won from both seats of my beloved city ISLAMABAD with great margin.

    Posted 4 years ago on 19 Feb 2008 1:46 #

  13. Adonis
    Member

    Yes. Islamabad has proved that it is a city of honourable people. The spirit of people yesterday was amazing.

    Posted 4 years ago on 19 Feb 2008 6:02 #

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