NA 49 - Islamabad-II « PKPolitics Discuss

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NA 49 - Islamabad-II

(40 posts)

admin
Administrator

Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 3:50 #
engrzia
Member

@ admin
Sorry couldnt see link to NA48 and NA49 so i started separate thread for that. Pasting same contents here so you may delete those threads if feel appropriate. THANKS
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Elections 2002:
Syed Nayyar Hussain Bokhari PPPP 47884
Mr.Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar Independent 30016
Dr. Tariq Fazal Choudhry Pakistan Muslim League(N) 16832
Mr.Rab Nawaz Choudhry Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf 7540
------------------------------------
EDUCATED GUESS:
** This Constituency comprises mainly of rural areas around Islamabad City. Only Sector G5 and G6 (including presidency, PM House, supreme court, diplomatic enclave as well as Lal Masjid and Aabpara etc) are located in this (One of votes casted in above figures is MINE as well :P)

** About NA49 most of votes comes through baradri system in rural areas around Islambad such as Barakahu etc. Nayyar Bukhari(PPP later become lota PPPP) and Nawaz Khokhar (his son is mustafa khokhar PML-N) being most prominant in context of baradri. Urban area included (most congested area of Isb) has around 90% votes for PML-N. But votes who decide are of those in rural areas.

** PPP votes will be divided due to lota N.Bukhari. PML(N) votes will be divided due to N.Khokhar(lota) though his son Mustafa Khokhar remained loyal to PML-N. So one can expect interesting results. I personally hope PML-N has more probability to win. Let c..

Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 5:55 #
Adonis
Member

Nayyar Bukhari never became a lota. He remained a PPP loyalist and is contesting on PPP ticket.

Nawaz Khokhar on the other hand is a lota and became a PMl(Q) member after musharraf coup in 1999. As he is not a graduate himself so he has made his son, Mustafa, contest on his behalf. Mustafa Khokhar has no political experience and is contesting on PML(Q) ticket.

The PML(N) ticket holder in thsi constituency is Dr. Tariq Fazal who was also the tickeket hodler of PML(N) in 2002.

There is also an independent candidate Malik Tabarak who also has some following in the area. He may get between 5-10 thousand votes and act as a spoiler.

The real contest will be a three-way fight between Nayyar Bukhari, Mustafa Khokhar and Dr. Tariq Fazal. The rural votes are the key in this constituency and seem to be swinging the PML(N) way these days. Nayyar Bukhari is a strong candidate but his party is not popular in the area. Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar is running a very organized campaign but his family notoriety and his party are his biggest handicaps. Dr. Tariq is a relatively weak candidate but PML(N) ticket has made him a serious contender.

RESULT: Too close to call at the moment. Whoever wins would likely win with a margin of no more than 5-7 thousand votes.
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@ Admin

Very nice work. You put a lot of effort into this. Especially the constituency map is very nice. Well done.

Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 6:28 #
engrzia
Member

@Adonis
You are right that N.Bukhari is not lota. I have mistaken with PPPP. Let see the contest here that is expected to be pretty close as you mentioned as well.

Posted 4 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 7:32 #
imran
Member

Syed Nayyar Hussain Bokhari is strong the area is full of ppp workers and vote bank

Posted 4 years ago on 21 Dec 2007 15:25 #
javed
Member

close election on this seat beween ppp nayyar bukhari and pmlq..khokhar.khokhar has 20thousand personal votes plus lot of cash and suppor of govt.
bukhari has lot of ppp voters but last time he disappeared after winning....

Posted 4 years ago on 22 Dec 2007 9:14 #
GM
Membera

@ javed what u mean by govt support??

u mean there is pre poll rigging going on in favor of PMLQ and does this mean even if PMLQ wins here, it will not b a realy victory and will b based on jhurlu??

i agree that nawaz khokhar has personal votes, but htese are the only votes becos there are NO votes of PMLQ as a party.
Sheikh Rasheed was saying the same that PMLQ has no votes and he is contesting based on his personal votes only.
so does this mean mustafa nawaz khokhar will be limited to 20000 votes only and if it is so, then Nayyar Bukhari will win, i think.

Posted 4 years ago on 22 Dec 2007 9:43 #
ishtiaq
Member

The 20,000 personal votes of Mr. Khokar is now story of past and his position becomes very week after shooting on Nawaz Sharif Rally by his supporters just before bomb blast in Liaqat Bagh.

Now, most of voters belongs to PML (Q) are aiming to vote PML (N) and PPP is also in position to cash the remaining votes.

If PML (N) can able to get the support of Mr. Tabarak (Malik Bari), then in my opinion, PML (N) will be in a position to win that seat, otherwise PPP candidate can win this by little marjin.

Posted 4 years ago on 01 Jan 2008 9:55 #
billy
Member

ppp has to win from this consituency,but i am afraid government will rig in this consituency and establishment will help KHokhars to win .

Posted 4 years ago on 07 Jan 2008 20:31 #
javed
Member

pmlq khokhar gona win ,
becausen they have 16000 family votes .they own 25% of land in this consituency, they r tough too,

Posted 4 years ago on 08 Jan 2008 9:20 #
khizarkyz
Member

Can somebody tell me how much role will 'Lal Masjid' play in this constituency,

Posted 4 years ago on 18 Jan 2008 21:22 #
javed
Member

@khizar
there is almost no affect of lal masjaid ,
in this area pppp candidate bukhari is strong and pmlq khokhar is also strong too. both r anti mullas,
one of them will win

Posted 4 years ago on 19 Jan 2008 9:09 #
safshan
Member

@Khizarkyz

I guess in this constituency "Lal Masjid" incident will definitely play the role but the votes will be divided between PPP and PMLN since they are regarded as opposition parties. Main contest will remain between these two parties. Nayyar Bukhari surely has an edge and he is not a Lota, he always remained loyal to PPP. After Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto's death he is a strong candidate. But the situation for PMLN has improved after Nawaz Sharif visited Bara Kahu couple of days ago.

All in all this will be an interesting and close contest with PPP still has an edge, but one thing we have to consider the GHOST voters which are always available for PMLQ.

Khokars never have more than 10000 personal votes. All the educated voters are really against this family notorious for all the wrongdoings including biggest Qabza Group in the area. They opened fire on NS rally from their house on the same day when Benazir Bhutto was killed. Biggest LOTAS one can imagine, Nawaz Khokar was once independent, then joined Nawaz Sharif then defected to Benazir and now he is in PMLQ. He is a characterless man with not an iota of shame left in him. But the best blessings he has is the support of the agencies.

Posted 4 years ago on 19 Jan 2008 22:33 #
Adonis
Member

Updated position:

The contest in this constituency is now between PPP's Nayyar Bukhari and PML(N)'s Dr. Tariq. Mustafa Khokhar, even though he has campaigned tirelessly, is now in third position, largely because the q league ticket has now become a curse and the attack of his goons on NS rally has also backfired ferociously.

PPP is still slightly ahead and more likely to win this seat but PML(N) is closing in and the contest is becoming interesting.

Posted 4 years ago on 21 Jan 2008 6:14 #
Anonymous

Actual contest is in between Syed Nayyar bukhari & Khokar son. We think that after benazir death people\'s sympathies are with PPP. I appreciate nayyear bukhari being our pesonal relations he is nice man but pollitically his interaction has been very rare to constituency during his tenure. I am not in Pakistan now but 3 months back i went to pak for few days and I came to know people were not happy with him too.If i m not wrong the people of village malot who had been with PPP since BD system has started but due to their lack of contacts and ignoring most of the people left him and joined khokar. Khokar no doubt they are have bad name in islambad area.

Sohail kiyani malot

Posted 4 years ago on 10 Feb 2008 9:12 #
javed
Member

bava
there are 65% chances ,that khokhar will win this seat, pmlq will be the winner, and 35% chances n bukhari of ppp gona win,
because khokhar is working hard and n bukhari had no contact with voters ,

Posted 4 years ago on 10 Feb 2008 9:42 #
Anonymous

javed sb. i have no idea about the real situation going on bcs i m not in pak. No doubt nayyar bukhari has not been close to his votors i have been told by so many my close relatives while we were disucsing about the election campaign.

What about Tariq Ch. malik Tubark????

Posted 4 years ago on 10 Feb 2008 10:45 #
safshan
Member

ha ha ha
@javed bro

Again only 65% chances for PMLQ candidate, who happens to be a drug addict. Please increase the count. Ground reality is that there is 70% chance the PPPs candidate will win now and Khokar will be at number 3 position. Please put some more hard work, PMLQ need your help. Other Islamabd seat is leaning towards PMLN and actually there is 75% chance of going that towards NS but please again try hard over there too. I am sure you will get a fair share from the billions looted by the Chaudhirs, if you and your agencies will put up hard work like this.

Posted 4 years ago on 11 Feb 2008 1:33 #
Anonymous

dear safshan,

Thanks for analysing and discussing islambad seat real position.PMLQ should not win in Federal area.PMLQ is not a political party.Who is leader for PMLQ choudries or mushraf???? leave looting but common man life is totally disturbed since 1999.Now if you see ATA scanldle including all commodities. I say how PMLQ candidates or supporter face the people what is there agend if some one question them about their 8 years + current government which totally co-mushraf.If you see 80 years old men and women or sitting in queue to get the daily commodites from the utality stores....Choudries say....they will win ..????

Posted 4 years ago on 11 Feb 2008 4:32 #
Adonis
Member

I am not sure that this seat has 70% PPP chance now. I would rather put it 55% PPP and 45% PML(N). Dr. Tariq has campaigned rather well and Nawaz Sharif\'s jalsa at Bhara Kahu was a huge stimulus. The momentum is with PML(N).

Khokhar appears to be dead and buried at number three...

Posted 4 years ago on 11 Feb 2008 4:36 #
safshan
Member

@Adonis bro

I gathered it from one of my relatives very active in that area. He owns a home near Phulgaran and I discussed with him the political situation in details. But since he is pro PPP, it might be the case that he was talking about PPPs win. He was of the view that PPP always has certain vote in that area and Nayyar Bukhari whether loose or win always gets a fair chunk in rural areas. In my opinion PMLN enjoys mostly middle class and educated support so the big question is that with law and order situation so bad, whether those people will go out and vote or stay at home. But one thing is sure that Khokhars are nowhere to be discussed as the winner. Good thing about this discussion is that most of members here talk about the possibilites of winning either PPP, PMLN, PMLQ or even independent candidates considering the ground realities not like @javed bro. who dream about every constituency going towards Chaudhris.

Posted 4 years ago on 11 Feb 2008 7:19 #
safshan
Member

@Kiyani brother

Believe me; the ground reality is that people are so fed up with this regime that if they will go out for vote on Feb-18, then Mush and his cronies will be wiped out and if they get 10 seats that will be a big achievement.

After months Atta crisis is not over. Also there is a shortage of gas, electricity, cooking oil and many basic commodities. Prices of every thing have skyrocketed in just a few months. Unfortunately this year weather was very cold and severe and people suffered a lot because of electricity and gas shortages. One of my relatives who live near Tench Bhatta Rawalpindi told that they have to cook meal after 12.00 at night because gas pressure is so low at day time that they cannot do anything. Most of the people have to stay home without electricity and gas.

In this entire scenario you will see people being killed en-mass by the so called suicide bombers. Imagine there is no attempt on the PMLQ rally whereas the so called terrorists sitting in Tribal Areas have more enmity towards govt.

The best chance for Mush is to make sure law and order situation remain very bad and mainstream parties which are PPP and PMLN never get going for campaigns and big rallies, people, scared of their lives, remain inside their homes on elections day. Then you will see 98% rating for PMLQ just like the Referendum by the dictator in 2002.

Posted 4 years ago on 11 Feb 2008 7:48 #
Anonymous

Dear safshan

Apart from all our internal political issue or crises whatsoever our nation has been facing since Murshraf occupied Nawas shareef Govt. We are working here in multinational companies and we feel ashame to face particularly to indian.Overseas pakistanis are more senstive than those who are in pak, being far from the country.We have to compair ourselves with others nations.2 days back Ch.Shujat has said \"we had done wrong things during our Govt and will not repeat in future\" Why our leader (such kind of) are cheating the nation. Look Shaik Rashid, he was good leader but now who like him. 21st Century is going on they cannot make the people fool and if they wil upto what extent?

We have been with Nawaz khoker when he was with Nawaz sharif. Since he became lota we left him.Also in my opinion in rural area people should not cast the vote on brodhery base. Brother first we want good leader then we want solid poliltical system and free judiciary.Withut these elements we cannot be able to do anything for democrasy.

I also agree with you for the bomb blasting only set for opposition not for Govt ralies.If Alqaida is doing, they are agaist Pak Govt not with the people or pak or political parties. Why bombs are not blasted on co-Government leaders or ralies. Who informed prior to incident to Ministery of interior Suisider have entered in Pak? and if they entered what the Government is doing why they are not taking any actiion to stop them. If they can take action against the poor student of lal masjid? Where were the Govt if they are saying lal masjid was having arms...who bring ...how they bring ?????

Posted 4 years ago on 11 Feb 2008 12:08 #
raja
Member

This 2008 election naayyer bokhari saab is gone beat this Pakistan Muslim League(Q) thats my word . cuz today bokhari saab had biggest jasla in bhara khau , Bokahari saab is famous in islamabad . about 44 vilages support him cuz he is the best . NO ONE WANT Pakistan Muslim League(Q) LEADER

THERE WERE THIRTY THOUSAND PEOPLE WAS IN THE JALSA.

Posted 4 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 23:30 #
Anonymous

Raja sahib. we expect and wish Bokhari sahib will win Inshaullah.Becasue people are fed up from PMLQ.We also wish for PML(N). Ch.Tariq is new but i hope he will get more than MPLQ.We expect from the people of Islambad not to support PMLQ ..not at all. Q does not deserve.They are killer of the innocent people of pakistan.From Pindi Shaik Rashid is in bad position. He was saying on TV he wil win from 7000-10000 vote margin.???? He knows what he had been doing in previous govt..He was defending Mushraf all the time. Chamcha..now he is not using PMLQ\'s name for vote.. It means he admits that PMLQ is not a party.Khokar shaik are opportunists.Both were having honour with NAWAZ SHARIf.We should cast our vote for genuine people, instead of bradery and relation if we are sincer to the country and to the people of Pakistan. May God give us good learship who can bring back the country on trac and can do something for the poeple of Pakistan not for America or Europe.

Posted 4 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 7:06 #
raja
Member

Thanks Kiyani saab .

my first choice is bokhari saab PPPP

Second choice is Ch.Tariq PML(N) .

AND AT THE BOTTOM OF ALL LOTA OF ( NON ) PML(Q) .

Posted 4 years ago on 17 Feb 2008 18:09 #
engrzia
Member

http://www.elections.com.pk
--------------------------------
http://www.elections.com.pk/results2002detail.php?constId=1271&st=1&toggle=3

THANKS ALLAH ... as per my expectation above ... PML(N) won from both seats of my beloved city ISLAMABAD.

Posted 4 years ago on 19 Feb 2008 1:51 #
Anonymous

Yes dear all. Congratulation on clean sweep of Q-league from Rwp and Islambad. At present regardless PPPP is winner of PML(N) but we are happy that our people of Islambad and Rawalpindi have done good.

Shaik saab...left spain..???? najoomi banta tha....personal defender of mushraf. ?Shujaat from his home has been defeated...sharm ani chayee unko....They were proudly talking and insulting Nawaz and benazir.God never like proud. Big towers of Q has falled down.Thanks God and we pray to God to give us good leadership who can do something for our dear country not for America and not for their personal benefits.

I Congratulate to Dr. Tariq and Aqeel Anjum.

Posted 4 years ago on 19 Feb 2008 9:00 #
raja
Member

It was very bad news for nayyer bokhari saab who lost nealy 500 votes from Dr. Tariq it was very storng competition between bokhari saab and Dr Tariq saab .

Posted 4 years ago on 20 Feb 2008 0:06 #
raja
Member

AT LEAST BOTHS PARTY ARE IN POWER ( PPPP, PML-N )

Posted 4 years ago on 20 Feb 2008 0:07 #
safshan
Member

@Kiyani brother

Nothing strange has happened really, ground reallity was that if people will go out for voting then PMLQ will be wiped out. Even now polls were not fair, massive rigging and pre-poll manipulation was done by PMLQ, though in cities they were not winner but in many constituencies they used ghost votes and if you recall PMLQ was nowhere in the preliminary count but still they managed 38 or so seats which is a sure shot rigging. People of Pakistan has voted unanimously from Gawadar to Chitral. They were of one view: not to vote for pro-mush parties.

PMLQ gained more through rigging in areas where international and national observers were not present like in South Punjab and Baluchistan. Ch. Shujaat lost from Gujrat but still there were 20 thousand bogus polled for him. The margin of defeat was so big that even then Ch. Ahmed Mukhtar of PPP won. Same thing happened in many rural areas, polling was only 35 to 38 percent. But the bogus voting by MQM and PMLQ was instrumental in raising it to 45 percent.

In Karachi MQM used all the resources through its criminal Governor Ishrat Ibad and in some stations polling was 140 to 150 percent. Same thing happened in constituencies like Attock, Gujrat, Jhang, South Punjab and Baluchistan.

Interestingly in Baluchistan where actually all the regional parties were bycotting, and they always get votes there, PMLQ won by massively rigging and in those constituencies turnout was very high.

Posted 4 years ago on 20 Feb 2008 5:09 #
Fahim23
Member

@safshan

In total agreement with you!

Posted 4 years ago on 20 Feb 2008 5:24 #
Anonymous

@Safsan,

Just look at results before commenting. In top 20 turnout seats only 2 belong to karachi.
Similarly in bottom 20 seats , 2 belong to karachi.

In the whole country , specially in sindh & punjab both turnover was high.

Why we are not able to digest results against our will ?

Posted 4 years ago on 20 Feb 2008 13:23 #
Justapakistani
Member

@ safshan
Before making ur own comments , loot at this
http://jang.com.pk/jang/feb2008-daily/20-02-2008/update.htm#31
If u still continue to have say same thing then u must got some serious problems

Posted 4 years ago on 20 Feb 2008 13:41 #
safshan
Member

@Justapakistani bro

I can put dozen of links which shows that massive rigging was done in selective areas. I am not making these comments from my own, was fully engaged and got all the news from different areas. Since I remained employed in a very big publishing group of Pakistan, many senior journalist are my friends and what I am saying that results were changed late night is the truth, whether you like it or not.

http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/feb2008-daily/20-02-2008/update.htm#54

Posted 4 years ago on 23 Feb 2008 7:04 #
safshan
Member

More links for you:

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/print3.asp?id=13088

http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/elections08/story/2008/02/080221_ppp_presser_ms.shtml

Posted 4 years ago on 23 Feb 2008 7:06 #
Justapakistani
Member

@ safshan
Well yar if u got any proves kindly show them instead of putting the allegations...........plus if u want to talk about rigging then talk across the board.......why stick with any specific party
Don\\\'t u see the Fatima Bhutto explaining the rigging done in Larkana....
how about rigging in Lyari., rigging in suburbs of Karachi.....NA-258 ?
check with ur friends they may have some info about these as well

Posted 4 years ago on 23 Feb 2008 7:17 #
safshan
Member

@Justapakistani bro

Well I have full recording of the elections day available. Like till 6.30 am (PST), 60 results were out and the party position was:

PPP 20
PMLN 22
Independents 7
MQM 4
ANP 4
PPP Sherpao 1

and our beloved
PMLQ 2

At that time, Geo was showing partial results of all other constituencies and PMLNs and PPPs name were seen clearly. They were showing the breaking news continously \"\" Q LEAGUE KA SAFAYA HO GAYA\".

Still Mushis party got 38 seats in the end.

In the words of columnist Tahir Sarwar Mir PMLQ which was losing heavily till the announcement of 200 seats results:

\"in the last 60 overs PMLQ played like Shahid Afridi and with all the 6s and 4s reached the milestone of 37 seats\"

Posted 4 years ago on 23 Feb 2008 8:07 #
Justapakistani
Member

Well mention the proofs that the rigging on the selective polling station, announcement of result bit late on GEO doesn\'t there will be any rigging going on. Moreover sometimes on ECP site are declared even GEO hadn\'t announced them....Moreover the stuff going larkana can be a solid proof of rigging.....if u have something like this then show up.....otherwise bro \"hawa mian tair chaalanay kaa koi faidaa nahi\"

Posted 4 years ago on 23 Feb 2008 11:58 #
adeelayub
Member

@safshan,
The reality is atleast as 4 as lahore is concerned ( as ive been active 4 both PML-N & PPP camps), rigging has been minimal.
Yes bogus votes have been casted but Majority of them were rejected.
there were 3 poling stations in which ballot boxes were not sealed so V made sure that there voted B not counted and all those votes were discarded.

Posted 4 years ago on 23 Feb 2008 14:26 #