In 2008 election results were as below;
Sheikh Waqas Akram PML (Q) 51,733
Ahmad Ludhianvi (Independent) 44,894
Dr. Abu-ul-Hassan Ansari PML (N) 15743
Sheikh Waqar Ahmed Advocate PPPP 9363
2008 Result Comments:
Here election is contested on sect basis.
In one to one competetion Sipah sahab candidate loses mostly because they have fixed votes on sect basis and overall the opposite collects all the rest.If some one divides the ant sipah sahaba votes as Tahir Ul Qadri had done in 2002 elections then Sipah sahaba candidate will win for sure.
2013 Election Analysis:
PMLN:PMLN has good repute here but can only win if they elude Sheikh Waqas or Maulana Ludhianvi.Maulana Ludhianvi is not considered to gain party votes though.Sheikh Waqas will gain party votes but even then Sheikh Waqas can win only in one to one competetion with out any 3rd spoiler in contest.
PPP:They do'nt have any candidate
PMLQ:They can have chance of win if They be able to retain Waqas and no 3rd spoiler is involved.
PTI:There r rumours that Waqas can join them if PMLN supports Ludhianvi.In that case they may have a good chance of winning here.In other way they may act as a spoiler here.Ansari Family is in PTI perhaps.They can not win on PTI ticket but can make an easy way for Maulana Ludhianvi.
Contest in this NA will be very tough and every party have to be careful in selecting cadidate.To ensure win of Ahmed Ludhianvi 3rd spoiler should contest as well otherwise Ludhianvi have to try in some way to beg party votes(if PMLN supports) as well which has never happened before.