NA 97 - Gujranwala-III(21 posts)
Posted 8 years ago on 18 Dec 2007 3:26 #
It is interesting to view your analysis on NA seats. In NA 97 I kind of disagree. You have projected q candidate at 80, N at 90 and PPP at 100.
I feel that Q is at 95 , PPP at 100 and N at 80.This is based on following.
Before I give my analysis, let me describe this constituency alittle bit. It is a mixture of both urban and rural areas.It has a huge majority of rightist vote in it. Historically PPP has only won here when either there is a split in rightist vote or PPP has contested electionin alliance with a faction of muslim league.Now coming to present political situation
Dr Zafar, last time, lost by almost 5000 votes aginst bhinders.At that time MMA candidate got 22,000 votes.
This time bcz of rising popularity for N the rightist vote would be divided. On the other hand virk form N is a potentially very weak candidate and someone who is a not a true politician. He won in 1997 but that was when N had a flood all over the country. Present time is not comparable.Having said that, he will still gain considerable rightist vote and therefore pave the way for PPP candiddate.Bhinders are strong candidates and have strong MPAs below them ( Dr Sajjad Mahmood Dhariwal( PP95) and Ashraf Butt( PP96). Same is true for PPP who won both MPA seats last time but bcz of poor performance by their MPAs , they are now in a tough battle.Posted 8 years ago on 05 Feb 2008 23:41 #
I was in the constituency for a few days just before the assisination of BB.
I believe that the real contest is between Bhinder of PMLQ and Dr Zafar of PPP. I think it will be a very tight race and anyone of them can win.
If I have to place a bet I will put my money on Bhinder winning NA97 while losing both provincial seats to PPP.
I say this although Bhinder\'s position is weak in the city areas but he is quite strong in the rural areas.Posted 8 years ago on 07 Feb 2008 14:19 #
Hello Khan 69,
Thnaks for posting a reply. I think after BB\'s assaissnation things have changed a lot in this constituency especially in urban areas.
As you noted it is a tough contest between PPP and Q, the factors that are new this time are PPP sympathy vote and also that unlike last elections N has a very strong candidiate in PP 96. Bhinder lost this PP when he won his NA seat n 2002. I feel this time his loss in PP 96 will be higher and in urban areas ( which are around 60% in NA 97) N vote will do a big damage. This whole thing goes in favour of PPP.Posted 8 years ago on 07 Feb 2008 22:38 #
It appears that the main contest now is between PPP and PML(N) with PML(Q) a close third. Absence of MMA should benefit PML(N). At the moment. Dr. Zafar of PPP seems to be slightly ahead maybe by about 5-6000 votes.Posted 8 years ago on 08 Feb 2008 5:12 #
Well unfortunately this constituency is highly personality based especially in rural areas and this where Virk lacks spo much. Although his MPAs are good especially in PP 96 but bcz of his personal lack of support I think he will be third although as you said there may not be a huge difrence in first three.
MMA voter in 02 will benfit both N ( 60-70%) and Q ( 30-40%). Also it would be very interesting to watch the polling ratio in urban vs rural areas bcz this alone can tilt the balance.Posted 8 years ago on 08 Feb 2008 18:34 #
PPP looks favourite this time in this constituency for many reasons. I do agree that the competition is between Dr. Zafar Ch and Shahid Bhinder. Mr Virk may grab some votes on the party(PML N) basis but he is too weak to be placed in 2nd order. Bhinders\' have gained a lot of political opponence being the sitting MNA and not doing much even being the law minister, plus candidates from their home area like Peer Farid are a big negative for them.Bhinders\' no more live in Aroop, they have setteled in Lahore and are left with not a single acre in Aroop.Mr Anwer bhinder had been a strong personality but Mr. Shahid couldnt prove his worth rather managed to attach himself to scandeles. On the other side Dr. Zafar Ch has proved himself to be a lot mature politician. He did not sit back after loosing and kept a continuous touch with his constituency and put in a lot of hard work.He played a major role in winning of Rao Ikram as the Town nazim of Aroop town. PPP has a strong vote bank in the urban areas and historicaly they had been playing the decisive role and Dr. zafar also hails from Jutt clan and has made quite an impression on rural population as well. Nevertheless the heat is on, only 18th would unfold the real picture....cheers to allPosted 8 years ago on 08 Feb 2008 18:53 #
I just reserched the political back ground of Bhinder family which starts from the Unionist party( the party agaist formation of pakistan in punjab) and comes all the way to PML Q after sailing harbours of evry political party of pakistan( PPP, PML N, Tehreeke Istaqlal, IJI etc) Should the voters of the constituency vote for people whose concern r only echelons of power??? Dogs prevail precedence over such humans, I think In each and every way Pakistani massess should put a big no to Lottacracy and politics of expedience and chooose the right people for job. Long live PakistanPosted 8 years ago on 09 Feb 2008 8:23 #
I appreciate your thoughts but isn\'t it true for majority of politicians especially the Muslim league. See the flip side as well. Why political parties accept such people in the first place? Because the over all culture is so;without principles, no merit. One more aspect; lets sau I want to contest from a weka party and I loose, form where i would recover my 1 carore or 50 laks spent on the election. Therefore people want to invest their money only to win and then recover whatever they have spent.
Coming back to NA 97 and bhinders. Yes it is true that they have been in and out different parties and still are considered be a main political force. But the real reason behind this is that there is no alternative. If you look at elections form 85-93 anwar bhinder always lost Brig Asgher. Once brig Asgher quit politics bcz of his health bhinders were left with no rival. Dr Zafar is also potentially weak , having no real background or good reputation. So the jist of it is that it would be easy to defeat bhinders if there is a candidate that is of good callibre, background and belongs to the same constituency no matter from which party this candidate contests.
Do you know how are the both PPs doing in NA 97?Posted 7 years ago on 09 Feb 2008 23:38 #
I agree with you, we have a real bad slot of people and i believe as it is said in Quran, \" Jaisey loog waisey Hukamraan\" I think we dont want good people representing us.....we dont vote for good people, Just look around all the constituencies of city gujranwala, hoards of vagabonds are contesting....what is their political mass...they help extortions, decoities...and what not....lan mafia.......God save our coounty. well coming back to NA 97 Bhinders\' seem to loose the vigor plus the rapport of Q, I dont care who would win but Q guys shouldl be out and particularly turncoats like Bhinders who dont leave any stone unturned for their personal benifits.....I have heard Dr. zafar speak in last elections, he is an educated man with exposure and knowledge, lets see if elected he might bring some good. I dont want to be personal but the embarrasment Mr. Shahid Akaram brings when he speaks in his half sunken voice and beet red eyes....Jeees
PPs in NA 97 have neck to neck competition PPP has sitting MPA\'s but they couldnt do much being in oppostion. But benazir factor would favor hem to some extent but its cliffhanger.....
And Brig. Asghar has been an establishment man always, he always contested when things are favorable, when it was a clear loose he let Anwer Bhinder contest...he was a shrewd old guy....and that time it was NA 77 with a diff. demographics than NA 97.Posted 7 years ago on 10 Feb 2008 1:32 #
Its true that most of our candidates were a part of establishment including Brig asghar. But if we compare him with Aslam Lone, Shahid akram and Mahmood bashir Virk (MNAs in 88,02,and 97 respectively) his time was little bit better, atleast there were no dehari dars found in his staff. Also look at N league (self proclaimed party of change) tciket holders from the city , same old freaks who have helped this great city winning the ditinction of \"dirtiest city of asia\".
My point is this......even our main stream political parties are not doing the politics of change, they are doing the politcs of face change only. Q will loose in Punjab over all but i can bet any ruling party will never win bcz they all are pro establishment and anti people.
Coming back to NA 97, I think on the polling day it will matter a lot whether urban voter comes to vote or not. Bhinder will loose if urban voting percentage is close to 40%. If on the other hand urban voter does not come out, then this will be a big plus for bhinders as they are strong in rural areas and the turn out over there is usually close to 50%. Also as I said they are strong in PP95 but weak in PP 96. Threfore this will also make difference how much votes are cast in each of these PPs. Pir Farid would damage them in Aroop but not much in other rural areas of PP95. On the other hand Sheikh Mukhtar form PP 96 is very effective and would damage both Ashraf butt and in turn bhinders in that constituency. Had N league some stronger MNA it would have been much more interesting
This city has such a great potential but it is a classical example of poor leadership which has make it one of the most pathetic in the whole country.........May Allah guide us to the right path....InshAllahPosted 7 years ago on 10 Feb 2008 3:22 #
Well yeah Brig Sb has been a fauji type of a clean man..he didnt had a team of Dhiaridaars.....but his reign was worthless...he could have done tons to the politically orphan people of Gujranwala ( so could have many others though) He did not recruit or a benifit a single constituent of his area.
I think we all need to change our thoughts and political will has to inculcated , prbably civil society has to rise....our masses are corroupt and they deny change....just see what is happening with the lawyers\' movement.
Well Sheikh Mukhtar is doing well but his area of scope seems to be limited, he has support from Badoki Kasiaan but is poor in urban areas and Shabbir has the biradri edge there, Sheikh Mukhtaar supported Ashraf Butt(Q candidate) in last elections, so this time there looks to be a further division of right wing vote.This all seems to be leaning towards PPP and particularly their MNA candidate.
In PP 95 Dars\' have their own style of politics and are deeply rooted in the area and Peer Farid\'s factor is also dividing the PML vote here....so lets see
And agreed that election day catering will play the decisive role.....God bless Pakistan and GujranwalaPosted 7 years ago on 10 Feb 2008 17:49 #
Any latest updates from the area???Posted 7 years ago on 12 Feb 2008 20:20 #
Well it seems that the final hour is fast approaching and all the parties are doing their best. As I pointed out earlier N seems to be leading in urban areas followed closely by PPP and Q. I still think Q is leading in rural areas followed by PPP and N being a distant 3 rd.
One thing that surprised me was Imran Khan\'s growing polpularity. I visited different villages and in gujranwala city also many people think of him as an alternative leader. Although he is bycotting election but I am sure if he contests next time he will gain considerable no. of votes and may even win if his candidate is a good one.Posted 7 years ago on 13 Feb 2008 0:23 #
You are right in NA constituency PML N has no scope....the battle is between PPP and Q, wish is whatever happens happens in the best interest of Pakistan...Shabbir mehar\'s campaign seems to have gained momentum in provincial constituency, lets ee....count down has begun...Long live PakistanPosted 7 years ago on 13 Feb 2008 16:53 #
Shabbir is working hard and I think he has a better harmony with Dr Zafar as compared to Dar in PP95. But stil it is a tough traingular contest there.
IN PP 95 also I think it is very tough to predict anything as all the 3 parties are working day and night. Although the pattern is clear once again , N is leading in urban areas while in rural areas Q is leading .PPP is second in both urban and rural constituencies.Still it is too close to predict and the line among first, second and third is quite blurred.Posted 7 years ago on 13 Feb 2008 22:58 #
Welll u are right but I think PPP and Q will be 1st and 2nd In NA and In provincial constituencies N might come up with some good results but Mr. Virk is too weak...anyways Dars also seem to be cooperating with Dr. Zafar this time as they even didnt apply for the national assembly ticket.....but they have a bad history.....lets see.....i think its u and me only...no one else has any info on this Constituency...LLPPosted 7 years ago on 14 Feb 2008 0:51 #
hey huys...any updates from the area???...cheersPosted 7 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 16:27 #
I spoke to few people in Bhinder camp and also from PPP. It seems that Bhindersd are sure of their success. PPP on the other hand think that their position is much better that the previous time. My feeling is still that PP 96 will play a major role in who so ever wins . But still too close to call for any one.It would be interesting to see how Pir Farid does in Aroop and how aroop votes for NA ( bhinder vs Virk through Pir.) Last time bhinders had a clean sweep in aroop with a lead of around 3500 votes.
In PP95, its still same triangular fight. All three candidates are too close. It will largely depend on rural vs urban turn out.PPP is definitely little bit on back foot as tey are sitting MPA here where as Q and N have file new candidates with better reputations.
Shabbir is doing good. I think He is the liley winner with Sheikh as second closely followed by Ashraf But.
Will see, May Allah guide us to the right path.Posted 7 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 18:22 #
May God bless Pakistan and they days as by peacefullyy.....Bhinders are very hopefull on the unforseen things......which inshllah should not be happening this time......PPP comes up to number one even if it is high second in rural and urban areas....where as it seems to be doing really well in urban areas.......lets see.....time is clicking......tcz...and plz keep up the updates...Posted 7 years ago on 16 Feb 2008 22:10 #
Yahan kabhi pti ka naame nahi suna tha nahi ye gujranwala pmln or ppp ka battle field hai yahan pti ka kya kamePosted 3 years ago on 05 Jul 2012 21:43 #
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