@rasheed
(1) Ik has made it very clear that he has a very powerful team, and I agree with u media should invite more PTI candidates to the show. Instead of these backside talkers.
where did u get your figures from?
Firstly we need to take account in what has been happening in the last 3 years. The people of pakistan are sick and tired of the hukumat, especially PPP and PMLN. In fact through the years they have been exposed as crooks by mainstream media. We also need to take into account the fake vote scandals, which was around 45%.
also we have to take into account the IK poularity has increased during these failed years of Hukumat. People have become more aware of siasat as well, as it is affecting there everyday lives, believe me i know people who have not voted before, but will vote for IK now. Student poularity, the increase of new voters are all points that have to be made in deciding a certain formula to work out the figures correctly. Finally mentioning the recent polls concerning IK as the No1 choice of Pakistan.
Here we go, assuming that there is a free and fair election
For example:
PMLN takes = 50,000 votes
PPP + PMLQ alliance = 45,000 votes
PML N, i believe that Nawaz Sharif popularity has decreased by at least 35%, so 50000 - 17500 - 17500 (based on a figure of 35% jaali vote, some may argue it should be 45%, but after a few thoughts I decided on 35%).
so therefore
50000 - 17500 - 17500 = 15000 votes
PPP and PML Qwill be around 13000 votes
Now PTI put there unknown candidate based upon himbeing a representative of IK
Those lost votes of PPP and PML N will majority go to IK, say 50% for argument sake. So therefore according to figures u have given, PML N lost votes which will be around 35000 votes, 50% of that will be 17500. Also around 16000 lost votes of PPP and PML Q. We need to take in account the new voters as well who have not voted before. My understanding is that he will get around 40000 votes pretty easily. But for argument sake I will say 15000 which should be a walk in the park.
So therefore
PTI around 50000 votes
PML N around 15000 votes
PPP and PML Q 13000 votes
Who wins IK by landslide.
GHQ is not the only winner, Punjab is the winner.
I do not know too much about Sindh, which is PPP stronghold, time will tell what happens, but inshallah IK should win by a landslide in Punjab.
Note:
Making these calculations I have included all the points that are affected towards of awam in Punjab today. As many also believe that Punjab hukumat is also responsible for problems in Pakistan.
Posted 10 months ago on 27 Jul 2011 4:00
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