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Pakistan thumb’s nose at US. Gwader goes to China

(22 posts)
  1. Pakistan thumb’s nose at US. Gwader goes to China

    Posted on May 22, 2011 by Lahori

    Initially I thought of posting this article in Mirza Ghalib’s thread but on a second thought decided to post as a separate thread. MG Sahib my apologies….

    Laden is dead, for the news reports out of Egypt, the terrorists are trying to keep Ladenism alive. American short-sightedness has created long term implications for America.

    In forty minutes, President Obama alienated the most pro-American government that Pakistan has seen, alienated the head of the Pakistan Army, and angered the head of the ISI. Never has an American president accomplished more in a shorter period of time. President Obama could have killed a mass murderer with the help of the Pakistan government, but he chose to humiliate his friends. He jeopardies the relationship which obviously is not important enough for him to salvage.

    He promises to intrude into Nuclear armed sovereign Pakistan again. What if a nut in Islamabad decides to retaliate? What if a missile is fired off at the chopper, or accidentally hits Delhi triggering a nuclear war. Mr. Obama has risked all that for short term gain.

    So all in all, what did Obama gain? By deriding Pakistan, and jeopardizing an alliance, he has assured his own re-election–or has he? The Bush machinery has come to the defense of the Pakistanis. Donald Rumsfeld in a full throated defense of Islamabad said that American should take a deep breath and wait before make judgment.

    Externally, the Obama actions have alienated the entire spectrum of Pakistani public opinion. The joint House of parliament passed a unanimous resolution condemning the US intrusion of sovereign Pakistani territory, and the Obama actions have in in fact pushed Pakistan into a tight embrace of China. Never since the Hushan empire, have the people of the Indus been closer to the rulers in Beijing.

    In an act of well thought out rapid retaliation, the Pakistanis have given the prize of Gwader to China. The Americans had wanted the port to keep an eye on Iran and keep the Gulf of Hormuz an American enclave. All those dreams have gone up in a puff of smoke. Gwader was originally built by the Chinese for giving sea access to the Western provinces of China. US machination forced the Zardari government to hand over the port to the American friendly Singapore Port Authority.

    The Singapore port authority, by design or sheer incompetence has been dragging its feet on the development of the port. The government of Balochistan is very disenchanted with the performance of the Southeast Asian company–and most in Pakistan want to fire it.

    In a development this week, Pakistan’s Defense Minister has announced that China has agreed to take over operation of the strategically positioned port of Gwadar. In order to pacify US sensibilities, the announcement made sure that the fact was played up as a Pakistan request, and not a Chinese demand. Mr. Mukhtar said that “Islamabad would like the Chinese to build a base there for the Pakistani navy”.

    The timetable for the transfer has been kept secret, however all indications are the Singapore Authorities will be asked to surrender the port as soon as possible. There is clear legal authority to do that, as the Singaporeans have clearly not lived up to their contractual obligations, and have not invested the amount of money that they were supposed to invest.

    The Defense Minister’s statement Saturday is the latest illustration of how Pakistan is informing the Americans that it has choices. Islamabad has always had China as a powerful ally and aid source. There is general discontent with US aid and the way Washington has been operating in Pakistan. The most populous province has canceled all US Aid projects, essentially blocking American intrusion into the affairs of the province. Other provinces may follow suit. The mercurial politician, the rebel without a cause, has finally found his bearings, and is actually holding rallies against the NATO supplies. He should have done this a decade ago, but his tactics and the cause of Imran Khan are sacrosanct.

    Almost all Pakistan agree with Imran Khan’s cause and his peaceful endeavors to stop the supplies to NATO. If Imran Khan is able to halt the supplies for a couple of weeks the US war in Afghanistan will come to a grinding halt. The last time Pakistan stopped the supplies, US GIs ran out of food rations and and even toilet paper!

    Mr. Mukhtar made the announcement about the new arrangement on his recent visit to China in which he was accompanying Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani on a visit to China last week. Construction of Gwadar started in 2002 and finished in 2007. Since then it has been operated by Singapore’s PSA International under a 40-year contract, for which a Chinese company also had bid. Beijing has already agreed to expedite delivery of a second batch of 50 jointly developed JF-17 fighter jets to Pakistan, within a couple of months.

    Clearly Bharat is worried. Delhi’s obsession with Islamabad and Bharat’s paranoia about Beijing is evidenced by tall statements by its defense minister, A.K. Antony, who expressed serious concern about the growing defense ties between China and Pakistan. He threatened to build up its own military arsenal.

    President Obama has not read the writing on the wall. His advice to Pakistan over the weekend was to kiss and make up with India so that the US could build South Asia up as a counterbalance to China. This failed American strategy has not worked and will not work. Islamabad has rejected it time and again. It is in fact Bhutto’s part, the Pakistan Peoples Party that rejected it in the sixties, and it the same party that is in power right now, albeit being run by an obsequiously compliant president.

    To counter the Sino-Pakistan port, the Bharatis had tried to build a port in Iran as a viable alternative to Gwader.

    Chahbahar was to baypass Pakistan and allow Bharati trucks to rumble from Chahbahar to Kabul via the Zaranj-Dilaram connection on the the Russian built Afghan ring road (which circles Afghanistan). Those plans blew up in smoke, thanks to the Bharati alliance with Israel and Delhi’s perfidious back stabbing of Iran at the IAEA. Delhi launching an Iran=specific satellite for Israel was the final nail in the Indo-Iranian relationship which was already suffering from rigor mortis.

    In is obvious that Bharati officials are chagrined at the recent turn of events–China using Gwadar as a staging post for naval operations in the Gulf of Hormuz, Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and beyond.

    Gwadar was a small insignificant former fishing village acquired from Oman by President Ayub Khan. It lies in the southwestern province of Baluchistan whose 14.5-meter-deep port is the only one in Pakistan capable of handling the biggest cargo ships. Gwadar will be a trade hub for Central Asia and a transit point for Western Chinese oil imports, most of which are now shipped via the Malacca Strait, making them vulnerable to piracy or Bharati naval blockades. China and Pakistan are building an oil pipeline from Gwadar to Xinjinag, in Northwestern China. Two new stretches of railway are in the final phase of being completed. The will extend the Pakistani rail network to Gwadar at one end, and to the Chinese border at the other–hooking it up to the Asian Network.

    Bharati military officials see Gwadar as part of the Chinese “string of pearls” naval strategy, with nodes in Humbolta- Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

    But the port has attracted far less traffic than it is designed for over the last four years, due in large part to opposition from politicians in Baluchistan, who say local people get insufficient benefit from the port and other commercial projects, relative to the central government.

    PSA’s contract has been challenged in Pakistan’s courts and in September, the angry Adm. Noman Bashir, Pakistan’s naval chief, called for it to be reviewed. Pakistani officials also blame the Singaporean government for not pushing Pakistan’s case at AEAS as a full dialogue partner.

    Beijing sees a colossal opportunity in the aftermath of Bin Laden’s death and the expected retreat of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Beijing is spreading its wings, and its long term strategy has always been to expand its influence in Pakistan, contain Bharat, open shorter new trade routes, operate a Blue water Navy that can protect Chinese interests globally.

    The development of Gwader, the delivery of 50 FC-20s and Block II of the JF-17 Thunders plus road and rail links from Central Asia to Arabian Sea are just part and parcel of the policies that are mutually beneficial to Islamabad and Beijing.

    http://lahoreledger.com/?p=35124
    Some more links for those having doubts:
    http://english.irib.ir/subcontinent/news/economy/item/78615-china-ready-to-operate-gwadar-port
    http://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/109696-china-accedes-request-take-over-operations-gawadar-port-mukhtar.html
    http://defenceforumindia.com/china-pakistan-defence/21828-pakistan-wants-china-build-naval-base.html
    http://www.brahmand.com/news/China-to-take-over-operations-at-Pakistans-Gwadar-port/7110/3/14.html

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 16:48 #
  2. bsobaid
    Member

    I read in newspaper today that Chinese Foriegn Ministry official expressed complete unawareness of any such offer related to Gawadar.

    http://www.express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwindow.aspx?newsID=1101249171&Issue=NP_LHE&Date=20110525

    Gilani probably proposed it in his excellent english which Chinese did not understand.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 16:55 #
  3. runaway
    Member

    @bsobaid

    I agree..it was news to the Chinese as well.

    We must commend Gilani for his hard work. He gave away Pakistan port without even telling the recipients :)

    Also, Zardari went to Kuwait..and the next thing coming out of Kuwait was that they banned all visa for Pakistanis. Maybe he offered Karachi Port to them :)

    This article is so bogus. The essence is that we have done checkmate to USA.

    Similarly, USA doesn't even know it has 'lost' this game and promised to violate the sovereignty of Pakistan again.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:19 #
  4. bsobaid
    Member

    lol runaway...yeah thats true.

    I did read another news item saying Kuwaiti visa ban news was also incorrect and Kuwait has not banned visa. Cant remember where I read it.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:25 #
  5. Read this source too and kindly do not divert it to some Kuwaiti labour laws.

    Taking charge: China ready to operate Gwadar port
    By Reuters
    Published: May 22, 2011

    ISLAMABAD:
    China has acceded to Pakistan’s request to take over operations at Gwadar port, while Islamabad also requested Beijing to build a naval base at the same port. Balochistan Chief Minister Nawab Mohammad Aslam Raisani, however, expressed strong resentment over the deal and said his government was neither taken on board, nor does he agree with it.
    “The Chinese government has acceded to Pakistan’s request to take over operations at Gwadar port as soon as the terms of agreement with the Singapore Port Authority (SPA) expire,” Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar said after his visit to China with Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani.
    Scrapping the old deal
    Pakistan had initiated negotiations with the Chinese government after the Planning Commission’s task force on maritime industry had proposed that an operational agreement with PSA be cancelled.
    “During initial negotiations, two berths at Gwadar port were offered to China to handle vessels containing Chinese goods,” sources said.
    The task force had observed that the PSA had undertaken to spend $525 million in five years, but nothing was spent during the last three years. No commercial vessel had arrived at Gwadar port during the same period.
    The task force also observed that a penalty of $8-10 million would have to be paid to the PSA if the contract was cancelled.
    The Balochistan government had also opposed the concession agreement with the PSA.
    The defence minister said Pakistan requested for 4,400-tonne frigates on credit basis.
    “We also asked the Chinese government to train our personnel on submarines,” the minister added.
    The minister said Pakistan was grateful to China for constructing Gwadar port but “would be more grateful if the Chinese government built a naval base for Pakistan at Gwadar.”
    Raisani’s resentment
    Raisani said he was appalled by the federal government’s decision to hand over Gwadar’s operations to China since he was designated as Gwadar Port Authority chairman at a federal cabinet meeting.
    Since day one, the Balochistan government has been demanding an end to the agreement with PSA, he said, adding that they “are competent enough to operate the port.”
    Such decisions on the part of the federal government will increase the sense of deprivation in Balochistan, he said, adding the government should concede the rights of people over their resources.
    The federal government should take the people of Balochistan into confidence while taking important decisions, or else the people would not accept such arbitrary decisions, he added.
    Promoting JF-17 Thunder
    Prime Minister Gilani asked his Chinese counterpart to induct the JF-17 Thunder aircraft in the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force. Doing so would not only give the aircraft publicity but also bring down the production cost if a large quantity of the aircraft is sold, the premier was reported to have said.
    The Chinese government was also requested to provide FC-20, a variant of the Chengdu J-10 aircraft for Pakistan Air Force.
    The Chinese premier said he was pleased to assist Pakistan in repairing the Attabad Lake and the Karakoram Highway.
    India ‘concerned’
    Indian Defence Minister AK Antony said his country views with “serious concern” the growing defence ties between China and Pakistan and says it will have to bolster its own military capabilities to meet the challenge.
    “It is a matter of serious concern for us. The main thing is we have to increase our capability – that is the only answer,” Defence Minister A K Antony told reporters in New Delhi late on Friday. The comments followed reports that China plans to accelerate supply of 50 new JF-17 Thunder multi-role combat jets to Pakistan under a co-production pact.
    Antony added that India may sign a contract to buy 126 fighter jets for its air force by the end of March 2012.
    “This fiscal (year) ends on March 31, 2012. The deal can happen before that,” Antony said.
    India has allocated $3.6 trillion for the defence sector in the fiscal year through March 2012, up from $1.47 trillion last year. [With additional input from Shahzad Baloch in Quetta and wires]
    Published in The Express Tribune, May 22nd, 2011.
    http://tribune.com.pk/story/173436/pakistan-looks-towards-china-for-building-naval-base-in-gwadar/

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:28 #
  6. Mirza Sahib, no apologies required. You did well to devote a separate thread to this highly interesting piece. Of course bsobaid's correction did bring one up short somehow, but I still think the Gwador to China story is closer to the truth.

    Apart from all the other interesting information it contained. the following para in the article attracted my attention most of all:

    "Clearly Bharat is worried. Delhi’s obsession with Islamabad and Bharat’s paranoia about Beijing is evidenced by tall statements by its defense minister, A.K. Antony, who expressed serious concern about the growing defense ties between China and Pakistan. He threatened to build up its own military arsenal."

    For one thing, it is Delhi which is obsessed with Islamabad and not the other way around as one has a tendency to toss off without due thought. For another, when A.K. Antony talks about building up its own military arsenal, it sounds like some wierd joke. India's military budget is vastly superior to that of Pakistan and yet they feel they haven't got enough weapons to meet our country head on! We should at least show the intellectual honesty to acknowledge the effect the Pakistani armed forces have on India's army. They seem to dread any coming encounter with their once Muslim brothers.

    BTW: Sorry, while I was still writing my comments, three other replies had already been posted. Perhaps more to them later on.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:29 #
  7. Thanks Mirza Ghalib for your support. Although there are some more sources but I am not going to spam this thread.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:32 #
  8. bsobaid
    Member


    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:33 #
  9. runaway
    Member

    Chalo ji..amreka ke ghulami na shai ..cheeni ghumali sahi

    Umeed hae cheeni ghulami meethi hogi

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:37 #
  10. bsobaid
    Member

    itni meethi bhi nahi hogee, Baramdagh cheeni mein bhi maingnee milaa day gaa...aur tou aur, balochistan kaa joker CM bhi nahi maanta.

    Although I am still uncertain about the authenticity of this nes item and offer.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:41 #
  11. runaway, When you write that, are you really sure you know what you are saying? In other words, how well do you know your Chinese history? First question. And second question: as long as we remain US slaves, we are by the same token the slaves of Zionism. With China, at least, no such risk exists. Which is then better?

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:44 #
  12. bsobaid
    Member

    Chinese never invaded other countries neither do they interfere in anyone else's business nor they do want to preach their ideology but they are number one banyaa...far bigger than Indians.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:47 #
  13. hypocrite
    Member

    I am wondering, if Pakistan shall really become a party in the world power game and try to be part of this lobby or that lobby, or is it better for us to remain neutral.

    Becoming part of any lobby requries compromises, give and take and risk and reward and having some enmity with the other lobby. Are we prepared for all of this. Do we have the economic, political and moral strength to really manage all the shocks that might accompany with these power games.

    What if tomorrow our interests clash and we need to change our lobby.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:48 #
  14. bsobaid
    Member

    This is why I think we should seal our borders and confine ourselves to domestic issues only. However, sealing borders is apparantly not possible.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 17:53 #
  15. bsobaid, I agree. China does not invade other countries. Also that it is very strict about its debts, etc. The baanyaa country as you call it. The answer here again is. Perfection does not exist in this world and also we have no choice.

    Why should it be impossible for us to seal our borders?

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 19:07 #
  16. bsobaid
    Member

    Good question Mirza, I dont say it is impossible to seal the border. This is what I have heard and read in different news items mainly because of the terrain.

    The biggest concern of allied forces is cross border infiltration of insurgents, if Pakistan seals the border then there is no cross border going on.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 20:34 #
  17. bsobaid
    Member

    From Economists....
    http://www.economist.com/node/18682839?story_id=18682839

    Still, China’s commitment to Pakistan has its limits. After devastating floods last year, America gave Pakistan $690m, 28% of all international aid. China’s contribution was a mere $18m. According to Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund, an American policy institute, Pakistan may be “talking up the ‘China option’ beyond where the Chinese are willing to go.” China, he reckons, will be reluctant to tilt too far towards what might look like an anti-India alliance”. Despite border disagreements, China wants to keep its relations with India in reasonable order.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 May 2011 20:57 #
  18. aftab arif
    Member

    China drops the Gwadar hot potato

    It looks like Mukhtar badly overreached in his attempt to convince the administration of US President Barack Obama of China's willingness to replace the US as Pakistan's official best friend forever.

    It may simply be that he was just trying to be helpful, and get Pakistan out of an embarrassing jam on the operation of Gwadar.

    There are three likely reasons and one unlikely reason why China has little interest in helping Pakistan play the Gwadar card, either as a commercial or military property.

    The unlikely reason was floated by The Times of India. It linked the port project to the attack by militants on the Mehran naval base in Karachi this week, apparently in an attempt to publicize the fact that Chinese engineers are assisting the by now globally unpopular Pakistani military:
    Apparently jolted by the Taliban attack on Pakistan's naval base, China on Tuesday indicated it would not invest funds on creating another naval base in that country. [4]
    The linkage between the two events probably does not extend beyond the shared use of the three words "naval base" and "China".

    As we shall see, deadly peril is a fact of life for Chinese personnel at Gwadar already. China would be unlikely to reverse a major strategic decision because 11 Chinese helicopter technicians were in transitory peril more than 1,000 kilometers from Gwadar during an attack intended to embarrass the Pakistani military and destroy two US surveillance planes as retaliation for the raid that killed Bin Laden.

    As for the likely reasons for Chinese wariness:

    First and foremost, Gwadar is a failed commercial port - built with over US$200 million in unenthusiastic Chinese aid - in the middle of a wilderness that nobody visits. [5]

    In the most recent court case that has bedeviled the port and its operator - Port of Singapore Authority or PSA - it was alleged that the only way to get business to Gwadar - for what purpose and to whose benefit it can only be imagined - was to divert cargo from Karachi:
    Since PSA has failed to attract commercial vessels to Gwadar Port, it is reported and in common knowledge that the government at the expense of the public exchequer is subsidizing and artificially creating business for PSA by diverting different cargoes of urea and wheat (otherwise destined for the ports at Karachi) to Gwadar Port which reportedly resulted in a loss of at least Rs 2,500 [US$40] per ton in extra, unnecessary and unwarranted costs to the public exchequer. PSA has failed to make any investment in additional facilities at Gwadar Port contrary to the tall claims at the time of award of the CA to PSA, it added. [6]
    The cash-strapped Pakistani government apparently reneged on a deal to develop a free-trade zone at the port, ditched plans to build transportation infrastructure connecting the port to the interior, and failed to follow through on a no-cost transfer of developable land at the port to the operators. The unhappy operators, PSA, have been subjected to accusations of non-performance it dismissed as unfounded, and harassing lawsuits inspired, it alleges, by interests from the competing port of Karachi.

    Pakistan's Supreme Court has instructed the Gwadar Port Authority to cancel PSA's concession. If a new operator could be enticed into taking over the port, it is extremely unlikely that PSA would insist on serving out its contract until 2047.

    Pakistan is understandably keen to find a new operator pronto for the troubled commercial port.

    China has been floated as a potential replacement for PSA virtually since the inception of the contract, long before Mukhtar's statement; but China is unlikely to be enthusiastic about taking the port off PSA's hands except as an expensive favor to Pakistan.

    It would not only take an immense expenditure - perhaps $2 billion - to link Gwadar to inland economic centers in Pakistan, western China and Central Asia; the effort would be largely zero-sum for Pakistan, taking business away from Karachi. The strategic justification for China - that Middle East crude could be landed at Gwadar, thereby avoiding the perils of the Straits of Malacca, and pumped or trained over the Himalayas at a capital cost of $30 million per kilometer in the more difficult stretches - seems more Pakistani wishful thinking than China's planning. [7]

    Mukhtar might have been trying to sweeten the bitter commercial pill of taking over the commercial port by dangling the prospect of an advantageous cooperation between Islamabad and Beijing on a naval base.

    He also may have been trying to placate the Pakistani navy at the same time by building a base for it at Gwadar, since the navy's reported unwillingness to surrender 582 acres (236 hectares) of prime land have been cited as a key obstacle to happy and harmonious development of the port. [8]

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/ME28Ad01.html

    Posted 12 months ago on 28 May 2011 11:04 #
  19. aftab arif
    Member

    There's frantic spin in the US especially among the right that Pakistan must be taught a lesson because it "harbors terrorists". The mighty conceptual leap would be for these righteous, misinformed, armchair warriors to advocate teaching China a lesson.

    Gwadar is an ultra-strategic deepwater port in the Arabian Sea, in Pakistani Balochistan, not far from the Iranian border and only 520 km away from the hyper-strategic Strait of Hormuz. Beijing financed close to 80 per cent of the construction of the port via the China Harbor Engineering Company Group. The port is currently managed by Singapore. The lease will end soon - and it will go to China.

    Islamabad now wants the Chinese to build a naval base at Gwadar. That will be a monster geopolitical earthquake in a crucial node of "Pipelineistan" as well as the New Great Game in Eurasia.

    Sleepy (for now) Gwadar has been building up for years as the key node of the IP (Iran-Pakistan) pipeline, which used to be the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) or "peace" pipeline, before New Delhi got cold feet. For Washington, the prospect of a steel umbilical cord linking Iran and Pakistan has always been anathema.

    What Washington wants - and has wanted badly since the Bill Clinton years - is the TAP (Trans-Afghan) pipeline, which then became TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). Even millennial rocks in the Hindu Kush know TAP or TAPI will only be built when the war is over in Afghanistan, with the Taliban an inevitable part of the government.

    In this ongoing, epic IP (or IPI) versus TAP (or TAPI) battle, what is never mentioned is that the winner after all may be... China.

    New Delhi knows a pipeline crossing Afghanistan is, well, a pipe dream. But still it has not committed itself to IPI - in part because of relentless Washington pressure, in part because it does not trust Pakistan.

    China, on the other hand, has already proposed itself for an IP expansion. This means that starting at Gwadar, another pipeline would be built, by the Chinese of course, crossing Balochistan and then following the Karakoram highway northwards all the way to Xinjiang, China's Far West.

    Those who have already traveled the spectacular, 1,400 km-long Karakoram highway from Kashgar in Xinjiang, Western China, via the Khunjerab pass to, of all places, Abbottabad in Pakistan, know it for what it is - a graphic example of strategic Sino-Pak collaboration. Further on down the road, Beijing engineering will connect the Karakoram highway with a railway across Balochistan towards Gwadar.

    Pakistanis involved with the development of Gwadar love to bill it as the new Dubai. Well, it might as well become Western Hong Kong.

    No wonder Beijing's strategic analysts are tasting what could be the geopolitical equivalent of the finest shark-fin soup; the Chinese Navy positioned at the heart of the Arabian Sea, a stone's throw from the Persian Gulf; a great deal of its Middle East oil imports shipped to nearby Gwadar - and then by pipeline or railway all the way to Kashgar; and the Chinese economy profiting from extra gas supplied by Iran and, in a near future, Qatar.

    Keep on truckin'

    It's not only China possibly winning a crucial "Pipelineistan" chapter plus an Arabian Sea base to add to its "string of pearls" network. In terms of its AfPak vulnerability, Washington may be contemplating a triple X defeat.

    For obvious reasons the Pentagon cannot use Chinese or Iranian seaports to supply no less than 100,000 US troops, 50,000 NATO troops and over 100,000 private contractors in Afghanistan - legions of mercenaries included - which dabble in over 400 military bases all across the country. Nearly 80 per cent of this monstrous quantity of supplies transit through Pakistan. And that means, essentially, Karachi.

    So one cannot imagine the "kinetic military action" (White House copyright) in AfPak without a non-stop serpent of trucks leaving Karachi and entering Pakistan via Torkham or Chaman every single day.

    All the stuff Kabul - and the immense Bagram Air Base close by - needs goes through Torkham, at the end of the fabled Khyber Pass. All the stuff Kandahar needs goes through Chaman, in Pakistani Balochistan, not far from Quetta, where Mullah Omar theoretically lives when he's not being pronounced dead by the Pentagon.

    The Pentagon of course could rely on alternative routes such as the interminable Northern Distribution Network (NDN) from Riga in Latvia to Termez in Uzbekistan, which connects via a bridge over the Oxus to Afghanistan. But NDN is not only long but also impractical; it does not allow too much cargo; and the Uzbeks forbid the transport of lethal weapons.

    As for the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan, that's only for troops coming in and out, and for storage of jet fuel.

    The bottom line is that Islamabad knows the Pentagon simply cannot conduct the AfPak war without the Karachi-Torkham (300 trucks/tankers a day) and Karachi-Chaman (200 trucks/tankers a day) routes delivering like clockwork.

    So if you break the balls of the Islamabad establishment to a tipping point and Taliban networks will have a free hand at attacking US/NATO convoys to Kingdom Come. Compare it with Beijing acknowledging Pakistan's "contribution and sacrifices in the war against terrorism".

    On message

    Beijing actively helped Islamabad's nuclear weapons program. Next August, China will launch a satellite into orbit for Pakistan. Roughly 75 per cent of Pakistan's weapons are made in China. Soon 260 Chinese fighter jets will become the core of the Pakistani Air Force.

    Even before Beijing delivered the message that Pakistan's sovereignty shouldn't be messed about, the Pakistani military had already delivered their own message.

    It concerned that most photographed rotor of the stealth Black Hawk helicopter that crashed beside Osama Bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad. The Pakistanis threatened they would let the Chinese tinker with it - and that would certainly yield some ace reverse engineering.

    It didn't happen. But still they didn't get the message in a Washington whose leeway over Islamabad is a strategic rent that goes basically to Pakistan's military. If the US congress would cut it - threats abound - there's no question Beijing would be delighted to make up the difference.

    Washington may still have a sterling opportunity to get the message next month, when the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meets in Astana, Kazakhstan. There's a strong possibility that Pakistan may be enthroned as a full member, upgraded from its current status of observer.

    This means, in practice, Pakistan as a member of the still embryonic Asian answer to NATO. An attack on any NATO member is an attack on them all, according to its charter. The same would apply to the SCO. Ladies and gentlemen, draw your conclusions - and start dancing to the sound of the Sino-Pak shuffle.

    http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011527104451497291.html

    Posted 12 months ago on 28 May 2011 14:41 #
  20. @aftab
    Hats off to you brother. I salute you for posting this. Thanks for a very decent but equally informative post.
    Keep it up brother.
    Thanks once again.

    Posted 12 months ago on 28 May 2011 14:45 #
  21. aftab arif
    Member

    @ Semirza

    My pleasure Sir and i am very grateful for your kind words, it means alot,thnx.

    P.S. I just hope and prey that we can bring our Balochi brothers into the mainstream so that this country in all parts could prosper.

    Posted 12 months ago on 28 May 2011 15:33 #
  22. aftab arif
    Member

    Russia is fostering the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as an exclusive preserve to keep out the US, especially in the grouping's energy club. The SCO comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

    The US is getting frantic that the SCO is gearing up to admit India and Pakistan as full members and Afghanistan as an observer. So far, the US had banked on the reservations of Russia and China over the SCO membership claims of Pakistan and India respectively, but the rethink in Moscow and Beijing on this score has set alarm bells ringing in Washington.

    Moscow is outflanking the US by rapidly building up ties with Pakistan. A crucial vector in this accelerating relationship is energy cooperation. Moscow has begun discussing with Pakistan the nuts and bolts of its participation in the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project.

    The countries are restoring their air links; they have held two summit-level meetings within a year; and begun closely coordinating their approach to the stabilization of Afghanistan (which is integral to the execution of TAPI). Incidentally, Russia's special representative on Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov (the Kremlin's ace hand on Afghanistan) visited Islamabad last week for in-depth consultations.

    The thrust of the Russian approach is to augment Pakistan's strategic autonomy so that it can withstand Washington's bullying. And Moscow estimates that Pakistan is keen to reciprocate. As a prominent South Asian scholar in Moscow, Andrey Volodin, wrote last week, "[Pakistan President] Asif Zardari's visit to Russia has shown that Pakistan is actively diversifying its foreign economic ties and foreign policy. This attitude is welcomed by Pakistan's main all-weather ally, China, which is pursuing a policy of 'soft reverse containment' of America in Asia, including Pakistan."

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/MF07Ag01.html

    Posted 11 months ago on 06 Jun 2011 14:51 #

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