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PML-N prospects in KpK in 2013 Elections

(31 posts)
  1. Sharif Aadmi

    PML-N secured 4 seats (all from Hazara Div) in 2008. Couple of guys Amir Muqam who won on Q has joined PML-N and Humayan Saifullah who also won on Q is in Hum Khiyal and is now in alliance with PML_N thus bringing the total to 6.

    With PTI factor as well as JI participating in 2013 (possibly) , i don't see PML-N epanding much from its current strength. Also , it has to face the backlash in Hazarah for province name.

    There was just one seat on which it was 2nd , a couple on which it was 3rd .

    PML-N PML-N Position
    NA-1 88325 ANP 44210 0
    NA-2 76293 PPPP 34443 3103
    NA-3 90895 PPPP 27038 12096
    NA-4 80806 ANP 31598
    NA-5 94570 PPPP 31907 4229
    NA-6 85144 ANP 36835 0
    NA-7 87587 ANP 57234 3588
    NA-8 78062 PPP-S 30625 3940
    NA-9 57054 ANP 30770
    NA-10 93931 mma 29279 3782
    NA-11 39941 PPPP 20896
    NA-12 108846 IND 49872
    NA-13 102720 ANP 26603 14469 3
    NA-14 101567 ANP 30681 1292
    NA-15 110588 MMA 28665 22053 2
    NA-16 58472 ANP 22180
    NA-17 134391 PML-N 58041 1
    NA-18 150979 PML-N 72586 1
    NA-19 222498 PML-N 1
    NA-20 155114 PML-N 72526 1
    NA-21 MMA 36629 3
    NA-22 55042 PML-N 22316 4881
    NA-23 53086 IND 14100 6439 4
    NA-24 138631 pppp 83560 2155
    NA-25 132830 mma 44673 497
    NA-26 164463 mma 91484
    NA-27 123547 PML-Q 61303 1
    NA-28
    NA-29 72795 ANP 19860 4575
    NA-30 69314 PPPP 24063 3014
    NA-31 67319 PML-Q 26928 1
    NA-32 86368 PML-Q 32278
    NA-33 69951 PPPP 27594 6508
    NA-34 87451 PPPP 38068
    NA-35 70744 PPPP 34472 4800

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 6:03 #
  2. mango mam

    I think the condition of PMLN in KPK is much better as compared to 2008; PMLN has only 3 MNA seats currently; 1 from haripur and 2 from abbottabad so they cannot loose much from hazara; infact they might gain if sardar yousuf joins pmln; PMLN has now reasonable support in pakhtoon areas as well; Also depends on khawja hoti decision

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:20 #
  3. Sharif Aadmi

    Mango mam

    PTI claims to be much stronger in KpK . Won't that be a factor ? Also JI has a certain vote bank in KpK especailly in malakand division .

    If these two forces are going are in play , its definately going to hurt PML-N.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:28 #
  4. mango mam

    @Sharif Aadmi

    Do you mean if JI make an alliance with PTI?

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:30 #
  5. Sharif Aadmi

    Mango Mam

    NOt really. PTI is flying too high (in its own world) and i don't think they are goiong to make an alliance with anyone.

    But if JI / PTI alliance materializes , it would be a big force

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:33 #
  6. mango mam

    @Sharif Aadmi
    "But if JI / PTI alliance materializes , it would be a big force"

    I tend to disagree; This alliance will be a big boost to JUIF as vast majority of the religious voters will vote for JUIF; JI can only win a feww seats if they make an alliance with JUIF or PMLN

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:37 #
  7. Sharif Aadmi

    Mango

    I would agree that JI would be bigger force if it allies with JUI or PML-N but with PTI , it would still be force to divide right vote.

    JI has only couple of seats in Dir and malakind where it has historically won apart its just vote spoiling force.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:40 #
  8. mango mam

    @Sharif Aadmi

    As you rightly pointed out beacuse of the behaviour of PTI, JI may not get enough from PTI; They will get maximum benefits if they ally with PMLN (e.g. in lahore, karachi, kpk pakhtoon areas); Similarly, from JUIF, JI will also get little

    However, as you probably know, Munawar Hassan is not in favour of alliance with PMLN

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:44 #
  9. LHR

    @SA

    where would ANP stand in 2013 NWFP elections

    - based on their performance?
    - Bilour the bounty man's statements as US$ may not come now unless Walli Khan's heirs ask for big time muaffi from the sponsors

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 8:54 #
  10. Adonis

    JI is not going to have an alliance with JUI-F. This is final (of course as of today).

    Munawar Hassan wants to have seat adjustment with PTI but the Lahori group of Jamaat (Liaquat Baloch etc) desperately wants seat adjustment with PML-N to help secure their own seats.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 9:05 #
  11. Sharif Aadmi

    Adonis

    Quite realistic

    But if ns does that, it would be big mistake as he has to give his certain seats for nothing.

    Ji is no more a force as it was in 90's as ghq has got alternatives

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 9:12 #
  12. Adonis

    Agreed.

    PML-N has nothing to gain in Punjab from Ji's support.

    And in KPK, I do not think JI's support can be vital for PML-N or vice versa. JI is strongest in Dir where it does not need PML-N support while PML-N does not need JI in Hazara. In most other areas, JI can bring 8-10 K votes which are not going to be significant. So any seat adjustment will be symbolic and restricted to KPK, in which case JI may not want it.

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 9:18 #
  13. mango mam

    To be realistic, it seems that JI like Sheikh Rasheed is a liability therefore nobody is interested in it (not even GHQ)

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 9:26 #
  14. Sharif Aadmi

    mango mam

    Quite agreed.

    Adonis bahi,

    Don't know , why we are agreeing too much these days. Probably both of us belong to a bit older lot than these young lads who are too emotional and enthusiastic. (No offence intendend to young lads)

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 9:49 #
  15. Adonis

    LoL ...

    Dang.... It is too hard to use the word "old" for oneself....

    But there are many tsunami supporters who are much older than me so I have not lost hope of bringing about a revolution. :D

    Posted 1 year ago on 25 Sep 2012 10:12 #
  16. Sharif Aadmi

    Adnois,

    I didn't say . I said , a bit older :)

    Posted 1 year ago on 26 Sep 2012 1:04 #
  17. LHR

    so would PMLN prospects be hampered by the 'great' public work carried out by ANP in the last 4.5 years ....mind you they had sole control over the province with full coperation from Federal Govt?

    I believe if they list their achievements for last 4.5 years here that will just kill PMLN in KP

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 10:32 #
  18. Sharif Aadmi

    LHR,

    If they don't have anything to show to their voter, they will definately suffer. ANP is definitely carrying the load of incumbency.

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 12:22 #
  19. LHR

    @SA

    with the complete failure of ANP's reign in power for longest time during a democratic period in history......... It seems like PMLN prospects are pretty bright than

    Thanks for the balanced analysis from your end...."IF they don't have anything to show" ... "ANP IS definitely"

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 12:33 #
  20. sam45

    2013 election KPK NA predictions.

    NA1. ANP or JUI-F alliance
    NA2. PTI or PML-N
    NA3. PPPP or PML-N
    NA4. PML-N
    NA5. JUI-F alliance or PML-N
    NA6. ANP or PPP-S
    NA7. ANP
    NA8. PPP-S or JUI-F alliance
    NA9. Depend on which party Hoti joins.
    NA10. JUI-F alliance
    NA11. JUI-S alliance
    NA12. PML-N
    NA13. PML-N or ANP
    NA14. PTI or PML-N
    NA15. PML-N or religious alliance
    NA16. JUI-F alliance or independent
    NA17. PML-N
    NA18. PML-N
    NA19. PML-N or PTI
    NA20. PML-N or PML-Q
    NA21. PML-N or JUI-F alliance
    NA22. JUI-F alliance
    NA23. Independent or religious alliance
    NA24. PPPP or JUI-F
    NA25. JUI-F alliance
    NA26. JUI-F alliance or PML-N
    NA27. PML-HK
    NA28. PPP-S or ANP
    NA29. Independent or ANP
    NA30. PTI or PPPP
    NA31. PML-N
    NA32. PML-Q or PML-N
    NA33. JI or PMLN
    NA34. JUI-F alliance or PPPP
    NA35. PML-N or PPPP

    Approximate seats party wise

    PML-N 14-16, JUI-F 5-6, ANP 3-4, PPPP 2-3, PTI 1-2,

    PPP-S 1-2, Independent 1-2 Others 4-5

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 12:40 #
  21. Sharif Aadmi

    sam45

    Thx for your input. I think this much success would be a too roosy pic for PML.

    Just had couple of thoughts.

    From NA-4 , last time PML-N had no candiate. Unless some big gun has joined PML_n from here, can i ask why u have predicted from PML outright. (Think Amir Muqam contested from here as well , is that the reason ) ?

    From NA-12. this is swabi from where Asfandyar Wali lost by few hundreds to indepdent (SWABI AWAMI MAHAZ) Eng Usman. Again , party wise PML-N is non-existent and u have given it to PML-N / ANP. Has Eng. Usman or some other big shot jonined PML-N here ?

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 15:05 #
  22. Sharif Aadmi

    Just had a further look in these 2 particular constituencies NA-4 and NA-12 , PML_N has never won these seats not even in 1997 . In 1997 , it was distant second probably.

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 15:28 #
  23. sam45

    @ sharif aadmi

    Sharif mah man! these are not my prediction! got from realiable sources who do these sort of surveys and keep a track. Not a supporter of PML or nawaz sharif, too desi for my liking! so definitely not favoring them by chose. And JUI-F, I wish never ever wins a single seat, but unfortunately they will be able to play the religious card again! all thanks too Imran Khan!

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 15:30 #
  24. Sharif Aadmi

    sam45

    Bahi jee , i don't consider u biased at all. Just questioned to update myself .

    Peshawar Valley ( Peshawar , nowsher , charsada , swabi , mardan) have always been tough areas for PML-N especailly charsadda and swabi so couldn't digest these one.

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 15:35 #
  25. Sharif Aadmi

    sam45

    Bahi jee , i don't consider u biased at all. Just questioned to update myself .

    Peshawar Valley ( Peshawar , nowsher , charsada , swabi , mardan) have always been tough areas for PML-N especailly charsadda and swabi so couldn't digest these one.

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 15:35 #
  26. sam45

    @sharif guy!

    about NA 4 they say it's a more confirm seat than NA 17, 18 for PMLN this time. maybe it's cuz of Amir muqam and in NA 12 pmln is very strong cuz of some big name joining!
    KPK swings are always huge and this time it's tilting towards pmln slowly. Maybe cuz our society is getting more radical! specially KPK

    and btw can you please tell me how do we get the permission to reply back more frequently?!

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 15:47 #
  27. Sharif Aadmi

    sam bahi

    Last time PML-N was absent from both Na-4 and 12 . Yes, Amir muqam got 18k votes from here .

    PML-N was abssent from Na-12 swabi-1 totally but secured 14k from Na-13 from swabi-2.

    As far as frequent messaging is concerned, don't know about that unless admin has devised some mechanism to permit or bar poeple for that .

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 16:00 #
  28. xainahmed

    i would give 4 seats to PML-N this time around..
    NA-17, NA-19, NA-20, NA-31

    PML-N can't get more than 10k votes from NA-1 to NA-16 except from seat of Ameer Muqam.. Even in 1997, PML-N had no winning candidates in these areas.. so its impossible that PML-N could win from these this time around..

    Posted 1 year ago on 27 Sep 2012 18:55 #
  29. Sharif Aadmi

    Xian & sam ,

    i would take an average of your predictions. Its not a wave like it was 97 ,its not bad as 02.

    I think its a bit earlier to make predictions. ONce final line up is there with alliances sorted out , it would be much clearer picture.

    Posted 1 year ago on 28 Sep 2012 9:40 #
  30. J.A.Khan

    My prediction is that if there any elections are held, then Nawaz Sharif is going to win those elections with a decent numbers of seats. MQM, PTI, Maulana Diesel, JIslami, Minorities and some Independents will join N-league as coalition partners. PPP will lose elections badly, even in Sind. If my this prediction come true so it may save Balochistan to some extent, as well. Just to let you know I'm not supporter of any political party. And additionally, I'm from Karachi where even MQM wouldn't get my vote and support, whereby my whole family and friends vote for MQM.

    Posted 1 year ago on 01 Oct 2012 10:31 #
  31. chaudary801

    @ xainahmed Bhai
    U missed Nathiya Gali seat NA 18..... that seat is most secure seat for PMLn in KPK....

    Posted 1 year ago on 01 Oct 2012 11:34 #

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