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Rahim Yar khan ( 6 National Assembly and 13 Provincial Assembly seats)

(31 posts)
  1. NA-192 Rahim yar Khan-I

    Liaqat Pur Town committee and Parts of surrounding areas of Liaqat Pur.

    NA-193 Rahim Yar Khan-ii

    Consists of

    Khan Pur Municipal Committee and parts of surrounding areas of Liaqat Pur and Khan Pur Tehsil.

    NA-194 RahimYar Khan-iii

    Consists of

    Zahir Pir Town committee and parts of surrounding areas of Khan Pur Tehsil and parts of surrounding areas of Rahim Yar Khan Tehsil.

    NA-195 Rahim Yar Khan-iv

    Consists of

    Ahmed Pur Lamma Town Committee and parts of surrounding areas of Rahim Yar Khan Tehsil and parts of surrounding areas of Sadiq Abad tehsil.

    NA-196 Rahim Yar Khan-v

    Consists of

    Rahim Yar Khan Muncipal Committee, Trinda Sawai Khan Town Committee, Kot Samaba Town Committee and parts of surrounding areas of Tarinda, Rahim yar Khan and Kot Samaba.

    NA-197 Rahim Yar Khan-vi

    Consists of

    Sadiq Abad Muncipal committee and surrounding areas of Sadiqabd Tehsil and parts of surrounding areas of Ahmed pur Lamma.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:24 #
  2. NA-192

    Another PPP dominated constituency, consists of city & rural areas of Liaqat Pur Tehsil. Makhdoom Ahmed Alam Anwer, the most influential personality of Liaqat Pur Tehsil regularly elected from here from 1988 to 1993 on ticket of PPP and then independently in 2002. He lost this seat in 1997 by Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmud of PML(N) and then in 2008 by Hamid saeed Kazmi of PPP..

    Total population: 586119

    Total Registered Voters: 400697

    Provincial Seats: 2 PP-285 PP-286

    Results of 2008 Elections:

    Hamid Saeed kazmi PPPP 65395

    Ahmed Alam Anwer PML(Q) 45579

    Results of 2002 Elections:

    Ahmed Alam Anwer IND 74933

    Haji Saifullah khan PPPP 34111

    A lot depends upon Makhdoom Ahmed Alam’s decision of side. As Current MNA of PPP from here, Hamid Saeed kazmi is jail in a major corruption scandal there is an huge chance for Makhdoom Ahmed Alam Anwer to bounce back. Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmud also has good vote bank in this constituency. Considering the status quo remains PPP can easily pocket this seat.

    I give this seat to PPPP

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:27 #
  3. NA- 193 Rahim Yar Khan-ii

    Summary

    Another PPP dominated constituency, consists of city & rural areas of Khan Pur tehsil and its rural areas including Feroza. This is a new constituency created in 2002 by splitting NA-148 into NA-194 & NA-193. Older giants, Makhdooms of Mianwali Qureshian remained in NA-194 which gives opportunity to new faces. In 2002 PPP gives ticket to Maj. R. Tanveer Hussain defeated Sh. Mohammed Anwar with narrow Margin and in 2008 Mian Abdul Satter of PPP defeated again Sh. Mohammed Anwar comprehensively. PML-Ns candidate Zeb jaffer remained third on both ocaasions.

    Total population: 456383

    Total Registered Voters: 356244

    Provincial Seats: 3 PP-287 PP-289 PP-290

    Results of 2008 Elections:

    Mian Abdul Sattar PPPP 58572

    Sh. Mohammed Anwer PML(Q) 37021

    Results of 2002 Elections:

    Maj.R. Tanveer Hussain PPPP 45500

    Sh. Mohammed Anwer PML(Q) 41671

    Current situation

    This time there will be tough competition expected between PPPP and PML-N as PML-Q is in pretty week situation and there is expectation of seat adjustment between PML-N and PML-F.

    I give this seat to PPPP

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:29 #
  4. Na-194
    NA- 194 Rahim Yar Khan-iii

    Summary

    Historically a PPP pet constituency consists of rural areas of Rahim yar Khan and Khan Pur. Makhdoom Shahab Ud Din won this seat in 1990, 1993 and 2008 on ticket of PPP. Makhdoom Khusru Bakhtiar defeated Makhdoom Shahab ud Din in 2002 on ticket of PML(Q). in 2008 elections right bank votes split between makhdoom Khusru Bakhtiar of PML(Q) and Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood (Acq. Votes: 30,000 approx.) competing from this seat on ticket of PML(F) which gives an easy way out to victory to Makdoom Shahab Ud Din of PPP.

    Total population: 530708

    Total Registered Voters: 357268

    Male Registered Voters:

    Female Registered Voters:

    Provincial Seats: 1

    PP-288

    Results of 2008 Elections:

    Makhdoom Shahab Ud Din PPPP 59710

    Makhdoom Khusru Bakhtiar PML(Q) 42442

    Results of 2002 Elections:

    Makhdoom Khusru Bakhtiar PPPP 70116

    Makhdoom Shahab Ud Din PPPP 59630

    Makhdoom Shahab ud Din is till strongest candidate from PPP platform. PML(N) can only damage PPP if he get support of Makhdoom Khusru Bakhtiar and Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood. Otherwise it will be an easy seat to PPPP.

    I gives this seat to PPPP

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:32 #
  5. NA-195

    NA- 195 Rahim Yar Khan-I v

    Summary

    This constituency is adjacent to NA-197 and been split from NA-197 in 2002, consists of rural areas of Sadiq abad tehsil, mainly Jamal Din Wali and Ahmed Pur Lamma. This Constituency is almost exclusive property of Makhdooms of Jamal Din Wali.

    Jahangir Khan Tareen who was business partner of Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood won this seat consecutively in 2002 and 2008. First time on ticket PML(Q) and then on ticket of PML(F) in 2008.

    Total population: 516871

    Total Registered Voters: 335006

    Provincial Seats: 2 PP-292 PP-295

    Results of 2008 Elections:

    Jahangir Khan Tareen PML(F) 84577

    Makhdoom Ammad ud din PPPP 46056

    Results of 2002 Elections:

    Jahangir Khan Tareen PML(Q) 62571

    Makhdoom Ammad ud din PPPP 46527

    Current Position

    There is an interesting change in current scenario after business split between Jahangir Khan Tareen and Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood in 2010 and most recently after Jahangir Khan Tareen’s joining Tehreek e Insaf. Recently Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood had some meetings with leadership of PML(N) but still its not clear from which platform Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood will compete in next elections. Any how this seat belongs to Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood without any party support.

    I give this seat to PML(F)

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:34 #
  6. NA-196

    NA- 196 Rahim Yar Khan-v

    Summary

    This constituency mainly consists of Rahim yar Khan city area and its surroundings. A significant vote bank is urban bound and litracy rate is higher than neighboring constituencies.

    Traditionally this constituency belongs to PML(N) though PML(N) lost this seat in 2002 and 2008 elections to PPP. Mian Abdul Khaliq won this seat for PML (N) in 1990 and 1993 and Chaudhry Jaffer iqbal won it in 1997.

    Chaudhry Zafer Iqbal Waraich defeated Jaffer Iqbal in elections of 2002 and his son javed Iqbal Waraich in elections of 2008 on ticket of PPP. Major reason for defeat of PML(N) in its strong hold is division of right wing vote bank in 2008 as Mian Imtiaz Ahmed was runner up from this constituency and PML(N)’s candidate was third.

    Total population: 509691

    Total Registered Voters: 256278

    Male Registered Voters: 139127

    Female Registered Voters: 117151

    Provincial Seats: 3

    PP-291

    PP-293

    PP-294

    Results of 2008 Elections:

    Javed Iqbal Waraich PPPP 52095

    Mian Imtiaz Ahmed INDPENDENT 47205

    Results of 2002 Elections:

    Zaffer Iqbal Warraich PPPP 48896

    Ch. Jaffer Iqbal PML(N) 30376

    As of today this seats will go to PML(N) comprehensively as Mian Imtiaz Ahmed recently rejoined PML(N). Mian Imtiaz lost this seat in 2008 election with minute margin as independent candidate and now he will pocket pure PML(N)’s 15 to 20 thousand votes. Other political parties like PTI and JI will also pocket few thousand votes but that will not so damaging to PML(N) in NA-196

    Comprehensively i give this seat to PML(N)

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:36 #
  7. NA 197

    Summary

    This is the last constituency of Punjab and mainly consists of Sadiq Abad tehsil and surrounding areas.

    Comprehensively I gave this seat to PML-N

    Constituency Structure

    Total population: 541281

    Total Registered Voters: 265809

    Male Registered Voters: 147298

    Female Registered Voters: 118511

    Provincial Seats: 2

    PP-296

    PP-297

    Results of 2008 Elections:

    Sardar Arshad Khan Laghari PML (N) 82565

    Raees Munir Ahmed PML (Q) 53983

    Results of 2002 Elections:

    Raees Munir Ahmed PPPP 79039

    Raees Wazir Ahmed PML (Q) 43192

    Though after 1977, PPP won this seat only once in 2002 and on all other elections PML(N) & allies pocketed this seat but by default this is PPP dominated constituency with significant vote bank of PML(N) especially in PP-296 which is stronghold of PML (N). Raees family is strongest family in this constituency as after split of Jamal Din wali and allied areas to NA-195 in 2002 which belongs to traditional rivals of Raees Family, The Makhdooms of Jamal Din Wali.

    Raees Munir Ahmed won this seat in 2002 with comprehensive margin on ticket of PPPP against his uncle Raees Wazir Ahmed (PML Q) but after elections joined the forward block of PPPP, PPP, Patriot. He was Fedral Minister of state for Culture, Sports, tourism and Youth Affairs under government of Mir Zafullah Jamali and Shukat Aziz.

    In Elections of 2008 PPP made an alliance with PML(N) to defeat its traitor Raees Munir Ahmed, unfortunately candidate of PPPP disqualified on basis of graduation copulation so PML(N)’s candidate Sardar Arshad Khan Laghari won this seat.

    Raees Munir recently joined PML-N and PML-N cheif Nawaz Sharif visited Bhong, the ancestor town of Rasees Munir. With wieght of Raees Munir, PML-N will have an easy win from this constituency.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:39 #
  8. Sharif Aadmi

    Muzzam Bahi,

    Quite fair analysis

    And to be honest , first time i am agreeing to your analysis.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:42 #
  9. chaudary801

    @ Muazzam Bhai
    RYK is my home district . sorry brother yr guess isnt right . plz check this link . i have given detail analysis of this District. Thanks and Dont mind.
    http://pkpolitics.com/discuss/topic/what-is-the-current-political-situation-of-ur-constituency/page/12

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:45 #
  10. any updates and constructive analytic approached comments will be well come......

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:45 #
  11. chaudary801

    @ Muazzam Bahi.
    I will also Write abt sepratly as well .
    I Waana discuss abt Rahim yar khan. There r six NA seats in RYK. Last time 4 won by PPP and 1 each by PMLN and PMLF. RYK is very deiffernt from other Punjab. 85% vote of that district is frm rural area while only 15% voter is frm urban area . there is not a singal seat which is completely base on urban area. . In that district there is four factors r present which r following.

    1. MAKHDOM AHMAD MAHMOOD Factor: He is the most influential politician of RYK. And he has his followers in every signal NA seat of RYK. In 1990,1993,1997 he has elected MNA from 2 seats at a time. Sairkies are his followers . In 2001 he was elected as district nazim of RYK. And in 2008 he helped Jahangir tareen to become MNA from his home seat NA 195. and he himself contested from 2 NA seats NA 194 and NA 192 but lost both seats but got more than 40000 in both constituencies.while his himayat-eyafta Miyan imtiaz got 48000 votes in NA 196 as an Ind. Candidate. Makhdom ahmad is now in alliance with PMLN and has declared to contest next elections with PMLN in presence of Shabaz sharif in Jamaldinwali jalsa on 19th December 2011. so it will be big boost for PMLN in RYK and danger for PPP.

    2. AARAIN BRDRI FACTOR. AARIAN BRADRI is one of the biggest brathri of that district and they also play very significant role in RYK politics. Their head is Miyan Imtiaz Ahmad whi has also joined PMLN . so that is also beneficial for PMLN in RYK. THAT BRADARI is sitting in every single constituency of RYK.

    3. WARICH BRADRI FACTOR. They r also very important in RYK politics But not as important as above mentioned factors. That bradri mostly sitting in NA 196. currently that bradri is not united as half is in PPP while half is in PTI.

    4. PMLN VOTEBANK IN URBAN AREAS FACTOR. Although uraban area is marely 15% but still majority of urban area’s vote is enjoyed by PMLN which cud decide the the narrow elctions. I have given overview of RYK now I will discuss each constituency below

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:46 #
  12. chaudary801

    NA 192.: Plz first read last time result.
    Hamid saeed kazmi PPP :65395
    Makhdom Ahmad Aalam PMLQ :45579
    Makhdom Ahamd Mehmod Pmlf:40131
    Now this time around PPP is out frm there and will be neck 2 neck fight b/w Makhdom Ahmad anwar and Makhdon Ahmad Mehmod . rumors r that both Ahmad aalam and Ahamd mehmod r demandind ticket frm PMLN . may b some kind of a seat adjustment we might see there with Ahmad mehmod goes to NA 194 and Ahmad alam contest there. But these r just rumors nothing final . every think will be decided on the eve of elections.
    But what ever happens PMLN is fav. In that halqa.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:47 #
  13. chaudary801

    NA 193 . PLZ LOOK BELOW 4 LAST TIME RESULTS.
    MIAN ABDIL SATTAR PPP :58572
    Sheikh Muhammad Anwar PMLQ:37021
    ZAIB JAFER PMLN :24831
    TANVEER HUSSIAN PMLF :11852
    in that roumors are that k Both Abdut Sattar and sheikh anwar is demanding pmln ticket. while whole aarian bratheri of that halqa is with PMLN as MPA Miyan Ejaz saffi is in PMLQ forwaord block so i m going for PMLN victory from that Halqa. Inshallah.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:48 #
  14. @ respected chydary your comments are well comed...If you post your updates about each constituecey of RYK... it will give us better idea...I think we should use good approach to make a good analysis....

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:49 #
  15. chaudary801

    NA 194 . last time results were as fellows.
    Makhdom shahab PPP :59710
    Makhdom Khusro PMLQ:42442
    Mkahdom AHMAD mehmood PMLF:34107
    this is a only halqa of RYk where PPP seem to b in good position but still not in comfortable position. Makhdom khusro is in contact with pmln while Ahmad mehmod also wana contest frm there . and there r rumours that makhdom khsro will contest on Na 194 while Mkhdom Ahmad will contest on PA seat under NA 194. so if they both can adjust each other then i will be close shot. while if there is 3 way fight then PPP will win easily. Bye the way there is political tradition of taht seat is one time that seat is won By PML and 2nd time Won by PPP. and there is one more candidate there named Mkhdoon Amaaduddin who previusly won on PMLN ticket from that seat.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:51 #
  16. NA-192 Makdoom ahmmad alam or Makdoom ahmad mehmood if any one of them join PML N then there will be neck to neck three way contest......

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:52 #
  17. chaudary801

    Na 196. Last Time Results .
    Javed Warich Ppp:52000
    Mian Imtiaz Ind:47000
    Jafer Gujjer Pmln:20000
    Zaffer Warich Pmlq :18oo0
    Now Ppp Cud Not Get More Then 35000 Votes Frm There Becoz Of Haterd Aginst Them And Zaffer Wairch In Pti So He Will Cut Javed Warich's Votes. While Mian Imtiaz Ahmad Has Joined Pmln And He Will Be Contesting On Pmln Ticket. Miyan Imtiaz Got 47000 Votes As Indpebdent Candidate . While Jafer Gujjer Is Basicaly Frm Gujrat So Jaffer Has No Bradri Votes What So Ever . In Last Elections He Only Got Party Votes Frm Urban Areas Of That Halqa. So If Miyan Imtiaz Contest On Pmln Ticket Then He Cud Easily Get Round About 80000 Votes Frm Three. PML N is fav

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:52 #
  18. chaudary801

    NA 197 WILL DEPEND UPON THE DECISION OF AHMAD MEHMOD . WHO EVER CANDIDATE AHMAD MEHMOD PICK WILL BE THE WINNER.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:54 #
  19. mango mam

    i wonder nobody is talking about siraiki province or siraiki factor; why is that?

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:57 #
  20. chaudary801

    @ Muazzam bhai
    PPP never won from NA 192 expect last time bcoz of many factors which r given below
    1. Hamid saeed kazmi's Huge following on religious grounds.
    2. PPP hamdardi factor.
    Other wise NA 192 is always been a anti PPP seat . so ths time around as well it will contest hard b/w Ahamd mehmood and ahmad aalam anwar.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:58 #
  21. @ chuhary NA-197 pet PML N seat...Ahmmad Mehmood has no factor in it.......

    Results of 2008 Elections:

    Sardar Arshad Khan Laghari PML (N) 82565

    Raees Munir Ahmed PML (Q) 53983

    Both Sardar arshad and Raees munir in PML N

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:59 #
  22. chaudary801

    @ mango mam
    this is RYK . a district in BWP. there will b issue of BWP province not siraki province

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 7:59 #
  23. i agree my anlysics about NA-192 is not as updated...

    Well NA-195 PML F and NA-196 and NA-197 PML N pet seats....

    Neck to neck compitation in Na-192

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 8:01 #
  24. mango mam

    but u know of course there are some issues siraiki vs punjabi

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 8:01 #
  25. @ chudhary PPPP has only chance in NA-194?????

    What will be the impact of PPPP and PML Q collation..

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 8:02 #
  26. chaudary801

    @ Muazzam Bahi
    u r right that pmln last time won easily on NA 197 but that is not actuall postion . NA 197 is a old halqa of Mkhdoon Ahmad Mehmood . Till 1997 that halqa was part of NA 195 and Makhdom ahmad used to Won from here. last Time Makhdoon Ahmad Mehmood Supported PMLN's candiate . Mkahdoom ahmad is PMLN's allie now so I guess PMLN will give ticket on NA 197 after his consultation. At the moment Makhdom Ahmmad is demanding Ticket for Rais Muneer ahmad . may be Sitting MNA Arshad Laghari will b accomodated on PA seat but i m not sure so far taht what PMLN leador ship will decide.
    While u talk abt NA 194 . Bro there is no presence Of PMLQ on ground. PML Q have got some heavy candidates such as Makhdoon Khusro Bakhtiyar and if Swithches his party than PMLQ will b finished . if PMLN want Mathdom Shahab to lose than they have to Persue Mkahdom Khusro to Join PMLN plus Ahamd mehmood support Khusro Bakhtiyar. Makhdoom Ahamd Mehmood is very strong in whole RYK .and I guess PMLN will decide Atleast 5 NA seats with his consultation .

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 9:15 #
  27. chaudary801

    @ Mango Bahi
    Sirakies of RYK want BWP province .
    @Muazzam Bahi .
    Yes PPP only can win NA 194 but taht too in 3 way contest . if there is allience B/w Makhdoom Ahamad and Makhdoom Khusro plus Makhdoom Ammad than it will very close contested . and On NA 192 there will b close neck to neck fight b/w Makhdoom Ahmad Mehmood and Makhdoom Ahmad Aalam Anwar.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 9:19 #
  28. How many percent chances are there of shifting of Makdoom Khusro ????????

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 10:30 #
  29. chaudary801

    @ MuazzamAli
    one cant say anything abt these landlords . it look like very rare taht he join pmln bcoz Makhdoom Ahmad so far is against his inclusion in pmln . and i told u erlier that pmln will not do any thing with out Makhdom Ahmad's consultatiion.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 May 2012 10:34 #
  30. What about Bhawalnager.....What are the chances of PPPP there.....

    Last time 3 seats for PPPP and one for PML Q....

    NA-188,NA-189,NA-190,NA-191

    Posted 2 years ago on 10 May 2012 8:58 #
  31. chaudary801

    @ MuazzamAli
    yaar dont knot much abt Bahawalnagar . but tell u one thing IjazUl haq will win his seat plus 1 will be won by PMLN through Khadim Watoo and 1 will go to Tariq Cheema family . and know any thing abt 4 seat . I guess if Cheema remains in PMLQ then allince of PPP and PMLQ will win 4th seat. so my guess 2 seats for PMLN plus Ijazulhaq while 2 seats for PMLQ and PPP allince .

    Posted 2 years ago on 10 May 2012 20:26 #

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