2013 elections, not Senate, the real prize
By Zahid F Ebrahim
The upper house of Parliament, the Senate of Pakistan, includes retired generals, clerics, feudals, business magnates, barristers and beauticians. In March 2012, half of the Senate will complete its term and fifty-four new senators will be elected by an electoral college comprising of members of the National and provincial assemblies.
The major loser in the March 2012 Senate elections will be General Musharraf’s now abandoned brainchild, the PML-Q, which will face a near wipeout. The big winner will be the PPP, who is set to gain almost a near-majority in the 104-member Senate. The PML-N is expected to increase its senators from seven to 13, whereas ANP will make similar gains, from six to 10 senators. The MQM will remain at its current strength of six senators.
The expected PPP gains in the Senate are being hailed as the ultimate victory for President Zardari. In fact, some analysts are suggesting that if the PPP is able to gain near majority in the Senate, it will be game over for the PML-N. Some PPP enthusiasts have even jumped to the conclusion that gains in the Senate will ensure a second term for Asif Ali Zardari as president.
Pouring cold water over such lofty expectations, PML unification block member Tahir Ali Javed has suggested that Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif move to dissolve the Punjab Assembly and thus obstruct the upcoming Senate elections in March 2012. This reaction is not entirely unexpected. In response, PPP parliamentarians have moved privilege motions in the Punjab Assembly as well as the Senate, and are claiming that this is a conspiracy against democracy. And the party’s Babar Awan has said that those who are “trying to break the senate will be charged with breaking the Constitution”, as in treason.
The dissolution of the Punjab Assembly would delay the constitution of the Senate, at least to the extent of the election of 12-13 senators by the Punjab Assembly, perhaps even more, but for the PML-N it will mean losing its government in Punjab. In the ultimate analysis, this may be too high a price to pay for the PML-N, especially, if one considers that the PPP’s near-majority in the Senate will have little meaning in the run-up to the general elections. Contrary to what many people may think, the Senate does not have the capability on its own to foil the legislative agenda of a party which has a majority in the National Assembly. If a bill originates in the National Assembly and is rejected by the Senate, the same can be put to vote in a joint sitting of both houses of parliament. If it comes to voting on legislation in a joint sitting, senators will have only 23 per cent of the total voting power, and members of the National Assembly will have the rest. Therefore, a mere majority of votes in the joint session will ensure effective passage for the proposed legislation, notwithstanding the majority control of the Senate by a hostile opposition party in 2013.
Also, near-majority control of the Senate will have little bearing on the election of the next presidential election in 2013. The electoral college for a presidential election comprises of the four provincial assemblies, the national assembly and the Senate. This means that the four provincial assemblies will hold 36.8 per cent of the voting power, whereas the National Assembly and Senate will each hold 48.9 per cent and 14.7 per cent of the votes respectively. Thus, even in a Presidential election, the real control will lie with the MPAs and MNAs who will be elected in general elections to be held in 2013 or earlier.
The March 2012 gains in the Senate may help the PPP accommodate a few more financial heavyweight supporters in the upper house, but will provide the ruling coalition no immunity from voter disillusionment come elections in 2013. Most importantly, even after gaining control in the Senate, the PPP will continue to remain hostage at the hands of its allies.
Therefore, raising political stakes for the Senate election in March 2012 may prove to be a wasteful distraction. The real political battle worthy of rolling sleeves is the general election scheduled in 2013.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/276663/2013-elections-not-senate-the-real-prize/
PKPolitics Discuss » Current Issues
Senate Elections 2012 : 2013 general elections, not Senate, the real prize
(3 posts)-
d0ct0r
MemberPosted 4 months ago on 29 Dec 2011 15:54 # -
d0ct0r
Member
PPP seeks applications for Senate elections
Pakistan Peoples Party has formally asked its party members to apply for the upcoming Senate elections due in March next year. The party Secretary General Jahangir Badr, asked applicants to apply in writing by January 10, 2012, along with a draft of Rs 30,000 to the party’s central secretariat in Islamabad. The Senate elections are due in March, when half of the seats in the Upper House falling vacant, will have to be filled through a special election process in accordance with the law and the Constitution. The new senators will be elected by the members of the present assemblieshttp://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\12\23\story_23-12-2011_pg7_14
Posted 4 months ago on 29 Dec 2011 15:56 # -
d0ct0r
Member
Senate elections likely despite PML-N absence
The Pakistan Peoples Party senses it can gain a majority in the Senate for the first time since 1970. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, however, is determined to throw a spanner in the works.According to the government, the PML-N fears holding Senate elections in March 2012. The PML-N claims in response that their ‘Go Zardari Go’ movement has nothing to do with next year’s elections.
The PPP wants general elections after the Senate elections in March 2012; the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz wants them beforehand. The reason is that the current political set-up is likely to give the PPP an unprecedented edge in the Senate election. The PPP has 20-plus senators now, and the number is likely to reach 40 after the Senate polls.
The PML-N are considering mass resignations from the national and provincial assemblies, which would be the culmination of their ‘Go Zardari Go’ movement. However, the party is yet to chalk out a timeframe. “Resignations would come at the time when our ongoing movement reaches its peak,” Senator Mushahidullah Khan, the party’s information secretary, told The Express Tribune.
Khan did not rule out the possibility of PML-N resignations ahead of the Senate elections, but said it was beyond his party’s power “since it all depends on mobilisation of the masses.”
According to the constitution, the governor of a province must act upon the advice of the chief minister on dissolving an assembly. However, Senate elections can be held even if one provincial assembly is absent. Thus in a legal and constitutional sense, Senate elections can go ahead even if the PML-N triggers mass resignations; unrest on the streets, however, is another matter.
When asked about the fate of Senate elections in case PML-N resigns and the Election Commission has to hold by-elections, former law minister Senator SM Zafar said: “Senate elections cannot be rescheduled since members of the upper house retire on a given date.”
In March next year, half of the senators (50), 11 from the four provinces, four from FATA and two from the federal capital will retire.According to an estimate the PPP would become the largest party in the Senate with 45-50 seats after the March elections. Jamat-e-Islami and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) would be the biggest losers.
The upcoming election would not only change political parties’ proportion in the upper house; it will also jeopardize career of many seasoned politicians. SM Zafar, Waseem Sajjad, Naeem Hussain Chattha, Tariq Azeem, Muhammad Ali Durrani, Gulshan Saeed, Jamal Lagheri, Nilofer Bakhtiar, Haroon Khan, and Professor Khursheed Ahmed are among those whose position as senators is believed to be under threat.
The strength of PML-Q in the Senate would drop from 21 to 4-6 and there would be tough competition among its members to get a party ticket. When asked about next term in the Senate, SM Zafar said: “If the party awards the ticket, I am ready to come again and serve.”
This election would also conclude a long journey by Professor Khursheed Ahmed that started in 1985, because JI has no representation in the National Assembly due to its boycott of general elections 2008.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/302356/senate-elections-likely-despite-pml-n-absence/
Posted 4 months ago on 29 Dec 2011 16:02 #
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