Fatima Rizvi
India has moved from ugly stepmother to Snow White status as the India –US Nuclear Agreement moves towards completion under the US umbrella personified by the pro India Secretary of State and her compliant team.
India like Pakistan and Israel is not a signatory to the NPT. The India-US Nuclear Agreement signals that if you are not a signatory then you do not have to adhere to the NPT at all---not even if it is considered a part of the global non proliferation regime. This opens up many interesting possibilities and Iran has noted the implications.
The India specific agreement requires changes in US domestic laws undermining the US commitment to Non Proliferation. By implication it undermines the entire NPT because an exception has been made---something never stipulated in the treaty. There may be signatory countries who may consider opting out of the NPT to get exceptional treatment. The reality of two other nuclear weapon states cannot be ignored for long.
The fact is that India was the original proliferator in South Asia with its 1974 nuclear test disguised as a Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE). India has tried to obfuscate this fact by blaming Pakistan for a decision in 1972 to go nuclear---the only documented event is a 1974 decision by Pakistan after the Indians test left it with Hobsons choice. India also projects the China-Pakistan relationship from the proliferation angle because that is how it wants to climb a higher moral and diplomatic ground to justify its unique status as a qualification for an India specific exception. Pakistan’s proposal for a nuclear weapons free zone and strategic restraint have been ignored.
It is well documented that In 1974 India diverted spent fuel from a Canadian supplied reactor for its nuclear test. If this violation can be glossed over or forgiven then in time transgressions by others could also be forgotten. This may encourage further transgressions. The US should note that there is a full scale nuclear build up taking place in South Asia with India moving to SLBM status and there is no way that India can improve its capabilities without further testing.
China’s response has been mature in spite of the fact that an Indian defence Minister cited the threat from China as the reason for the 1998 tests that forced Pakistan to respond with its own tests. The US seeks to contain China over the long term and India has become a willing tool in the grand design. The India-US Nuclear Agreement is a part of the containment strategy---a fact that will not be lost on China or Iran as they consider their options.
With only 14 out of its 22 nuclear reactors going under safeguard inspections, India will still have 8 unguarded facilities where it can use the extra fuel that it will have thanks to the India-US Agreement. Weapon production will be boosted and, even if it is not, the enhanced capability will trigger reactions by others.
Finally going by recent events it seems the payback by India for US benevolence is a compete compliance with US strategy in the greater South Asian region. A US-India axis with poor Afghanistan sandwiched in between is showing its coercive teeth.