Posted: 08 Mar 2008 12:50 AM CST
So now we do not even need a President of a country to tell us what to do. We can take instructions as happily from a junior official, be it Burns or Boucher, as they come here cracking the whip and we to the last man in the government stand happily in line, hands raised in servile salute as we shout in orchestrated chorus, “we want the nuclear deal, yes we want the nuclear deal.” We plug our ears, and continue the chant that we hope will take us to fame, individually if not collectively, even as Parliament shouts at the top of its voice that the nuclear deal is against the interests of the country, and the nation is against it.
Now the ministry of external affairs does not announce the travel schedule of its minister Pranab Mukherjee. The announcement first comes from Washington, in this case Burns, who lets us know that our minister will be visiting the US soon. Congress spokespersons give briefings insisting they want the nuclear deal, the AICC is buzzing with talk of a mid term poll and the nuclear deal. The Prime Ministers Office is back in business with its one point agenda —everything else is incidental—for the nuclear deal. So that leads us again to the two questions: why does Prime Minister Manmohan Singh so desperate for the nuclear deal, we know why Bush wants it, but why does he? And two, has the nation now ceased to matter that its voice reflected through Parliament over and over again is not being heard by the government that prefers to become non accountable on an issue of immense strategic import?
The Prime Minister wants the deal for three basic reasons. One, after a life spent in pleasing political masters, first as a bureaucrat, then as a minister, he has finally come into his own. Yes, of course Congress president Sonia Gandhi is the woman behind the throne, but then he is the recognized head of government and that is an opportunity he knows he will not get again. Not even if the Congress returns to power, as there are too many claimants including of course the dynastic heir. He thus, wants to go down in history (even if its US history) as the man who did something big: converted India irreversibly into a strategic ally of the US and changed her course from non alignment to total and complete alignment with the one nation of his unipolar world. Two, his basic constituency of the middle class and the corporates wants the nuclear deal not because it knows what that is, but because it will open new business with the US and that is something the mall-shoppers of India’s consumer society are keen to strengthen. And three, it will earn him fame and recognition in international circles as a Prime Minister who can be trusted to keep his word.
As for the second question, yes the nation has ceased to matter as elections affect only those who contest these. The Congress party is waiting for a feed back from the states after the populist budget to see whether there has been any shift in the vote bank. Remember, the last exercise had not just the UPA allies but the Congress chief ministers making it clear to the central leadership that a mid term poll would be disastrous. The Congress now wants to know whether the situation on the ground is the same or whether the huge waiver for the farmers has made a difference in the rural areas, or whether the constant concessions being announced for the minorities has finally made them happy, or whether the women and the senior citizens have been wooed over by the gestures made for their economic welfare. Although the feedback is awaited, it will not be too premature to predict that this will not indicate any shift in the vote bank, and that the anger and frustration is too deep rooted to be overcome in a matter of weeks.
And that takes us to the third question, that of course, the Prime Minister is not concerned with. Can the Congress convert the nuclear deal and the subsequent fall of the government into an electoral asset? No, it cannot for the political parties opposing the nuclear deal have already taken this to the masses on an anti-imperialist plank. They want to sell us to the Americans, is the slogan that still has the power to unite the people of India on an anti-US platform. The price rise, inflation, farmers unrest, non governance, Israel, West Asia, Iran all rolled into one is a potent mixture for regime change, of course not through shock and awe but peacefully through the ballot. And while those in power today can control any thing, they will still find it difficult to manage the millions who pour out on election day to cast their vote, made even more precious by the fact that it is the only say they have in governance in five years.
The Left has asked for a meeting of the UPA-Left joint committee on March 15. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat who has refused to react to government inspired media flak has insisted on timing the entire ‘operation’ rather astutely. The government will now be required to inform the Left parties about the status of the agreement with the IAEA. Is it over, if so then place it before the committee and sit back and wait for the outcome. If not, when will the safeguards agreement be ready, specify a date and time. Also if Mr Mukherjee is going to Washington he must inform the committee and Parliament before his departure whether he is going to clinch the nuclear deal, or express his regret. If he is going ahead with the deal, then the government will go in April without the Finance bill being passed. This will create a constitutional crisis, and the government will have to go for a vote on account before it can recommend the dissolution of the House and fresh polls. It will then have to go to the people and let them know why the nuclear deal was more important than the budget, and why it preferred to go with the US than ensure the passage of the budget.
We might as journalists get very excited with the “bold” sound bytes emerging from the government and the Congress party, but the reality is that the government cannot go ahead with the nuclear deal and hope to win an election. There is a certain anger and unhappiness in the country, the undercurrents of which are very apparent to those with an ear to the ground. The minorities are particularly unhappy with the repercussions of the global war against terror, and are definitely amongst the first to have climbed on to the anti-imperialist plank. The poor and the oppressed have seen little in five years to convince them that the Congress party is working for their uplift. We have 53 of the worlds billionaires, ranking fourth in the list of countries, even as 300 million plus Indians live on less than one dollar a day. So this will bring the economic reforms on the electoral table, with the poor coming out to vote on this burning issue as well. Who will the vote be against? Surely, even Congressmen do not need to guess that one.
The truth cannot be concealed behind created lies. The truth cannot be hidden behind orchestrated sound bytes. The truth has the habit of spilling out into the streets, as governments and prime ministers of India have known in the past. Truth also has the habit of creeping in from the back when those who have tried to put a lid on it, least expect it. The tallest fall like skittles, when they forget the power of the people.
Photo credit: Arrival of Manmohan Singh at White House
(IMB Editor’s Note: The Asian Age editors have been sacked by the new management. Mr M. J. Akbar, the founder of the newspaper, has been unceremoniously replaced with T. Venkatt Ram Reddy. As an immediate impact the above column was not allowed to be published under the new management.)