PKPolitics Discuss » Current Issues

US Empire Could Collapse at Any Time

(171 posts)
  1. Will happen or not but what really caught my eye is highlighted as bold:

    Chris Hedges: 'US Empire Could Collapse at Any Time'
    Fri, 17 Dec 2010 16:13 CST

    America's military and economic empire could collapse at any time, but predicting the precise day, week or month of its potential demise is unattainable, according to a former New York Times war correspondent who spoke with Raw Story.

    "The when and how is very dangerous to predict because there's always some factor that blindsides you that you didn't expect," Pulitzer-winning journalist Chris Hedges said in an exclusive interview. "It doesn't look good. But exactly how it plays out and when it plays out, having covered disintegrating societies, it's impossible to tell."

    He explained that he learned this lesson as events unfolded around him in the fall of 1989. Then, members of the opposition to the Soviet Empire told him that they predicted travel across the Berlin Wall separating East from West Germany would open within the year.

    "Within a few hours, the wall didn't exist," he said.

    Hedges was one of the 131 activists were arrested in an act of civil disobedience outside the White House yesterday, even as Obama was unveiling a new report citing progress in the Afghanistan war.

    Speaking to Raw Story on Wednesday night, he said the signs of US collapse are plain to see and compared the country's course through Afghanistan to Soviet Russia's.

    "We're losing [the war in Afghanistan] in the same way the Red Army lost it," he said. "It's exactly the same configuration where we sort of control the urban centers where 20 percent of the population lives. The rest of the country where 80 percent of the Afghans live is either in the hands of the Taliban or disputed."

    "Foreigners will not walk the streets of Kabul because of kidnapping, and journalists regularly meet Taliban officials in Kabul because the whole apparatus is so porous and corrupt," he said.

    One day after this interview was conducted, reports hit the global media noting the CIA's warning to President Obama, that the Pakistan-supported Taliban could still regain control of the country.

    Hedges predicted that President Obama's war report released Thursday would "contradict not only [US] intelligence reports but everything else that is coming out of Afghanistan."

    His prediction came startlingly true: the CIA's own assessment was said to stand in striking contrast with President Obama's report.

    Defense Secretary Robert Gates, however, insisted that the US controlled more territory in Afghanistan than it did a year ago.

    'A corporate coup d'état in slow motion'

    Hedges said he attended the protest and planned to get arrested because he is against the corporate powers that have enveloped the nation.

    "We've undergone a corporate coup d'état in slow motion," he said.
    "Our public education system has been gutted. Our infrastructure is corroding and collapsing. Unless we begin to physically resist, they are going to solidify neo-feudalism in this country."
    "If we think that Obama is bad, watch the next two years because these corporate forces have turned their back on him," Hedges warned.

    Hedges, author of Death of the Liberal Class, said that his vision of America is one with a functioning social democracy, which stands in stark contrast to the nihilism of the corporate state.

    "American workers, as they are repeatedly told, will have to become competitive with prison labor in China," he said. "That's where we're headed, and all the pillars of the liberal establishment are complicit in this."

    "At least if you get sick in the UK, you don't go bankrupt or die," he added.

    Hedges said that another pressure point is the US dollar, which he pointed out had been dropped by Russia and China in favor of modified ruble/renminbi exchanges.

    "A few more deals like that, and our currency becomes junk," he said.

    Hedges continued,
    "As long as we have relative stability, these lunatic fringe movements can be held at bay, but if we don't undertake serious structural reform, which we're not doing, then it is inevitable that we will come to a tremendous crisis - economic and political as well as environmental."
    This video, featuring portions of a speech given by Chris Hedges, was shot outside the White House on Dec. 16, 2010.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=tOde31QYbI0
    http://www.sott.net/articles/show/219994-Chris-Hedges-US-Empire-Could-Collapse-at-Any-Time-

    Posted 1 year ago on 19 Dec 2010 16:33 #
  2. aftab arif
    Member

    Empires collapse but they still make a comeback as significant World Powers, take Russia and the UK as a contemporaray example, so i don't expect the Yanks to completely go away from world affairs but if they leave the AF/PAK region ASAP that will be most welcome.

    Posted 1 year ago on 19 Dec 2010 16:40 #
  3. Abdul Rahman
    Member

    aftab,

    1. The Russian federation is on throes of economic and demographic collapse. The Russians thought that they will revive the Soviet glory by shunning off several republics mostly Muslim. But they utterly failed and are now doomes.America thrived by importing slaves and neo slaves-immigrants and Russia thrived by her manpower from former Muslim republic colonies.

    2. Less said about UK is better. The Union Jack is all torn to pieces and will never recover.

    3. The only ideology and not a geographical entity that has potential of resurgence as world power is Islam.

    Posted 1 year ago on 19 Dec 2010 18:18 #
  4. shimatoree
    Member

    It took the Roman Empire more than 500 years to collapse.

    As the saying goes-

    A live elephant is worth 100,000 pounds

    An elephant DEAD is still worth 100,000 pennies!

    It is possible that economic troubles will force the USA to leave Afghanistan- but leave the oil rich Middle East- No chance because if they do- then they certainly will collapse.

    So Chris Hedges is a good speaker but his words are just hot air in matters of substance and history.

    Posted 1 year ago on 19 Dec 2010 18:21 #
  5. Truthlover
    Member

    It was taking centuries for Empires to get at their peak and likewise was the period lenghthy before they were burried in the dusty archeives of history. But now we live in modern times where things are incredible fast.
    Not a generation shall pass before all this shall come to pass, was promised two thousand years ago.
    The collapse is imminent, though few are ready to believe such a happening.

    Posted 1 year ago on 19 Dec 2010 18:29 #
  6. SH, I do not know whether it is all that sound after all to compare the Roman Empire and the US equivalent passing itself off as a successor in 2010. The two have absolutely nothing in common. Their ends will also show few similaraties, I expect.

    I feel a great deal of respect for Chris Hedges among US journalists, but this particular text was somewhat disappointing. The promise of the title was not kept by the text itself. Besides, one matter was not broached there, namely WWIII, which is not just a flight of fancy of a crazed few. If WWIII breaks out, I think I know who will emerge the winner and it won't be US.

    I agree with TL that give or take a single generation is all it takes to plunge from zenith to nadir.

    Also, AR's view will no doubt be vindicated that the Islamic World will resurge as a leader, not the sole leader at this stage, but most definitely among those with the say-so in world affairs.

    Posted 1 year ago on 19 Dec 2010 20:23 #
  7. shimatoree
    Member

    Mg

    It took 200 years for the US to become AN EMPIRE OF SORTS

    I doubt very much if a crash lasting months or years is what will demolish the US Empire.

    The single important factor here is the military power. They still are the TOP dog in this world where energy will determine who gets to the top. And the military is how they will control the energy sources.

    So with a 5 ocean navy with nuclear powered aircraft carriers and submarines which can stay out on their own for quite sometime- who is going to stop them from controlling the energy resources.

    Don't let me elaborate on the military aspects but suffice it to say that there is a lot of wishful thinking going on out there.
    As Mao said-

    power comes from the barrel of the gun.

    Posted 1 year ago on 19 Dec 2010 22:43 #
  8. @shimatoree
    "It took 200 years for the US to become AN EMPIRE OF SORTS"
    Actually a lot less than that. US has been an "empire" for quite some time (100 years? more?)

    The fact remains that ALL empires (including "Hyperpowers" of today) come with an "expiration date" and that cannot be denied. No "wishful thinking" necessary.

    "The single important factor here is the military power. They still are the TOP dog in this world..."
    Be as it may. Isn't that true for all empires of the past? In the end it does not help.

    Some would even argue -- and rightly so -- that the collapse of the US empire has already begun. Some would even argue the collapse has already happened -- and rightly so too ("there are no more nation-states but a rule of 'corporatocracy'; let's not ignore NWO here"). Again it all depends on the lens one is looking through.

    "As Mao said-
    power comes from the barrel of the gun. "

    Glad you quoted Mao -- for in China we have another emerging empire though they are expanding their empire not through the barrel of the gun but economic muscle. See Africa for example. And they are already the big dog in producing metals. Same holds true for other resources. Who's "winning" in Afghanistan? What about Iraq?

    Of course to think empires collapse overnight and quietly is silly.

    [P.S. And let's not forget: "The divine can wipe out every standing army on Earth with a simple gesture; can make weapons useless and defenses as permeable as gossamer silk" -- Les Visible] ;-)

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 4:27 #
  9. Shimatoree, I must agree with nota on this one: The most sophisticated weapons in the world will not help when your time has come. Just as the greatest of fortunes will not help when an individual stares death in the face.

    Quietly and overnight were not words I used. That was Chris Hedges who's no bad shill, all in all. I put forward the notion of WWIII which no one addressed. There, yes, it would be overnight, but with a bang. Be very, very afraid of hubris, my friends.

    To your barrel of the gun, I'd add: the barrel of the dollar. One without the other and it's curtains for everyone. So keep a close eye on that fading wealth of the US.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 7:50 #
  10. Har Urooj Ra Zawaal Assat .
    its a persian saying .

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 7:53 #
  11. MG
    "I put forward the notion of WWIII which no one addressed."

    Only very subtly (that is what I meant by them not dying 'quietly'. But then I believe it is going on right now...we just don't call it that. The 'bang' will come towards the end. No?)

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 9:23 #
  12. This is WWIII, being waged as economic strangulation through unsolicited sanctions, genocide under cover of false pretexts like war on terror following occupation that continues unabated through placed stooges. USA and 40 plus nations are already into this war. What else this could be when the number of allies exceeds the number that participated in WWII.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 9:36 #
  13. Truthlover
    Member

    MG,
    The WWIII is already in making, it began in 2001 and as the then American president put it, it's new crusades, fought in different parts of the world at different times with different manners than the usual ones. I hope you remember that speech, which was toned down later on and yet is part of the history.
    The two world wars became the gateway for Zionists to get hold of US and world supermacy, The third world war is going to be end of the USA as a super power, though the men behind will not disappear from the world scene but shall continue dominating the planet from somewhere else. Let's look at this great who-- as a sacrificial lamb, butchered at the altar of Evil, when it has fullfilled its purpose, that time is not far. You, me and the whole world is going to witness that inevitable event, just wait with patience.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 9:41 #
  14. shimatoree
    Member

    It is true that in Iraq and in Afghanistan the US is facing a defeat on the battlefield.
    In Iraq they have left but have left in place those that cannot survive without support from their military prowess. For how long I do not know but keep in mind one word OIL. As long as they need oil - they will use their power which means military power.
    In Afghanistan after they leave and I hope it is sooner than what is being talked about- they will not face a strategic problem for them to haunt them.

    As Clauswitz said - War is politics by violent means.

    So from a purely a political point of view if they achieve the goal of energy resources- they have achieved their main aim.
    If they can continue to get oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq-( which they will) due to the selfish interests of those regimes in power - the only problem they can face is if someone will deny them the supply of oil.
    Will that be China ?
    I do not think so because it is not in China's interest to do so and even if China did want to do that- they cannot militarily.
    Will Iran block the straits of Hormuz ?
    Temporarily perhaps but not for a long time- again because it is not in their interest.
    Can China continue to do well without the energy supplies from the Middle East. No. They need that and thus it is in their interest to have the US police and make sure the straits of Hormuz stay open.
    What would happen if the Oil supply is in fact interrupted- well the economies of the countries like India, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia etc will sink along with the economies of the West.

    So , the US has the military muscle to project their political policies ANYWHERE in the world to guard their economic interests and a lot of the countries depend on THAT military muscle to assure THEM of their energy supplies to keep their economies humming.

    In War- the great commanders always think of logistics and of strategy.
    The little commanders think of Tactics on the local battlefield.

    On a strategic level- in the foreseeable future- I would say that the military demise of the US is over rated at best at present.

    Let us now look at their most vociferous adversary on a (claimed) strategic level- those that call themselves the Takfiris-( Extremists). This does not mean the Talibaan who are a local phenomenon and a military force to be reckoned with. But they are and have remained local.
    Their-( Takfiris) economic position is precarious- depending on donations from people-( in secret)- who may withdraw them once they are threatened.
    They have no place to use as a base of operations.
    All they have done is succeeded in causing an explosion in the stock prices of security related companies.

    So I do reject them as a factor in the predicted scenario of the military demise of the USA.

    Therefore it stands to reason that in spite of the problems( economic and political) the USA is here to stay for quite a awhile- all wishes to the contrary notwithstanding.

    Now let us take a hypothetical scenario- what needs to be done to bring (economic) energy supply difficulties for the US and the West.
    You would have to block the shipping lanes in two places. The Straits of Hormuz and Malacca.

    If there anyone who can do that and more important maintain the blockage for - say 6 months.
    I do not think so.
    Even if the Russians and the Chinese got together with their navies and tried to do just that- it will only last for less than two weeks.
    The US navy combined with the French and British and Japanese navies are that strong and that capable.
    In 2010, the U.S. Navy operates 289 ships in active service and more than 3,700 aircraft.
    The U.S. Navy is the largest in the world; its battle fleet tonnage is greater than that of the next 13 largest navies combined.
    The U.S. Navy also has the world's largest carrier fleet, with 11 in service (Wikipedia).
    The US navy does have bases in Kuwait and Qatar. You get the idea.
    They have been thinking about such a scenario ever since the end of 2nd world war and have plans for that.

    And I have not even mentioned the Zardari- Nawaz Shareef led Muslim nuclear power Pakistan!
    All of the leaders of the Muslim world( except Iran) will be standing in line outside the embassy in Islamabad or anywhere else to offer their allegiance to the US Military just like Musharraf did in 2001. We in Pakistan seem to prize such political beings and even if we did not- just look at our economy- you can see the rest.

    So please let us try to look at the reality on the ground.

    Now it is possible that God Almighty will decide that the US has to be demoted and that is certainly possible.
    But God Almighty might also be looking and evaluating to day's Muslims and how they are following the Islamic principles.

    Need I say anymore !

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 11:49 #
  15. Truthlover
    Member

    Shimatori,
    Your analysis sounds logic but you tend to focus too much on the obvious and ignore the subtle realities. I wanted to answer the points you raise but am busy at the very moment, I'll come back if it's o.k with you.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 12:10 #
  16. shimatoree
    Member

    TL

    subtle realities?

    How Subtle ?

    And how much of a reality ?

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 12:24 #
  17. shimatoree
    Member

    TL-

    When two boxers fight- they have to take the weight into account.

    A light weight cannot be placed in the ring with a super heavy weight.

    Now you get the picture ?

    Subtle enough ?

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 12:26 #
  18. "Need I say anymore ! "
    Yes :-P

    "It is true that in Iraq and in Afghanistan the US is facing a defeat on the battlefield."

    But I thought you said "power comes from the barrel of the gun!" :) BTW: You missed out on the Iraq and Afghanistan links I posted. There too the winner (as far as resources are concerned) is ..... China (and don't forget to look at China spreading it's tentacles all over Africa. U.S. is far, far behind...and I think I mentioned Latin America as well)

    "When two boxers fight- they have to take the weight into account."
    Indeed. But we are not talking "two boxers"...

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 12:40 #
  19. nota, sorry. I did miss that. I'm getting worse and worse over subtleties. Promise to read more carefully next time.

    Now, I deserved the rebukes I got over WWWIII. As a rule I do add Part Two. This time, in a hurry, I didn't. Part two is the nuclear part. Seen from the US point of view, the Muslims are one set of enemies. They still need to go after the direct contenders for their fallen empire: China and Russia (no offence meant AR. Shall discuss this with you in depth someday again). The Korea story was the first intimation of that second half of the war. I've just seen, NKorea has decided to hold its fire. So maybe it will all die down - but only for the moment. It will return in some form or the other before any of us are much older.

    Mirza Sahib, you've got your pulse on the third front: the demise of the dollar. That too is going on apace. Or as a friend used to say: The End Is Nigh.

    Shimatoree, TL said he'd be back to answer you in detail. I'll leave it to him. Nothing of what you say can be faulted outright. There is, however, one small niggling matter. Overestimating your own strength. I think that is what US is doing at the moment. Day in, day out. You alienate the entire world and still hope to carry on ruling it? Something somewhat wrong with your thinking somewhere, wouldn't you say? That's the position today as we moved in towards 2011.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 13:06 #
  20. shimatoree
    Member

    nota-

    I was unable to get to the links you had put up.

    It is true that China is connecting with Africa and Latin America in addition to Asia- but the fundamental military reality is there.
    Why would China spend the time and money etc to built a multi fleet navy to secure it's energy resources when someone else is already doing it- thus it is in China's interest to maintain the status quo.
    The Chinese have no interest in slogans-( though they do use them and use them very well too) they are interested in BUSINESS. Their History-( Military History That is) proves that beyond any question.
    The Chinese (5000 years old civilization) have also contributed a lot to military theory- and to summarize -

    Pursuit of peace

    National unity and

    Emphasis on defense rather than offense.

    The use of force can only be justified to stop violence.

    Zhen He did not colonize the countries which he sailed to even though he could have.

    I do agree with your comment that we are not talking about boxing but it is a metaphor which illustrates the point rather well.
    All those that keep up the mantra about the impending demise of the Empire need to think it through. And I mean think about what the Empire is likely to do in case this oft repeated demise come around and what it will mean for the rest of the world.

    Perhaps I am not a very subtle person and fail to notice the hidden stuff.
    But I do see the 68,000 gorilla facing me and I know I just cannot wish him away by saying Abra Kadabra etc!

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 13:13 #
  21. shimatoree
    Member

    MG-

    Arrogance is always a problem but it is not one person who is thinking- it is whole lot of very well educated well trained people whose main job is to do analysis over and over for all possible scenarios and have many possible solutions that can be implemented.

    Shall we also keep in mind where our military officers go for advanced military courses ?
    Where the best of our students would like to go for further education.
    Where the Chinese-( and the rest of the world) send their very best and the brightest for further education?

    So perhaps the Dragon is far bigger than we like to imagine and has many more tentacles in many more things.

    Let me use a very simple example here.

    The gentleman Haris Khan here writes a lot of comments against the West.

    Whose degrees is claiming to qualify for ?
    CISCO which certainly is an American Networking giant.
    Now why is that ? Why does HK not try to qualify for a certificate from a Pakistani company?
    Simple.
    Cisco is the best and a certificate from Cisco carries some weight.

    So there are a whole lot of Cisco like corporations which in peacetime function as commercial companies but are the reserve wing of the Dragon in other times.

    Get the one single pixel of the picture which is pretty big.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 13:33 #
  22. @Shimatoree

    It is like this, they like Disney, Wrigley's gum, Snickers bar, Pepsi, Coke, Hollywood movies, Microsoft Windows, MacDonald's, Intel computers and the English language and still hate the so called empire.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 14:41 #
  23. shimatoree, Disgreement is not my strong point. But once again forced to give it a go. Look. In the eyes of some, US education is about as good as nil. Or as someone I know would say: an oxymoron. Never mind what poor HK is qualifiying for. He's doing his best according to his lights. Same goes for poor Pakistanis or the Chinese or any other nationality. One is pro-US and then all things US glow from their navy to their educational system to their think tanks to their Bill of Rights and God knows what else. Or one is not. And then all things appear in a very dim light indeed. Nothing to do about it. It's a fundamental difference and not to be bridged over, unfortunately. We must leave it that.

    On the other hand, I must say I did concur wholly with what you said about the 5000-year old Chinese military theory. China will not strike the first blow, no way. But it will certainly defend with all its might if attacked.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 14:44 #
  24. British and American universities deny academic fields of choice to our students. Pakistani students opt for other countries and now more and more are going to China. Who says that only USA and UK excel above Russia and China? Russia was way ahead of US with its space program. Chinese Premier has offered 500 scholarships while for UK, USA and Australia education is an industry denying what is being freely provided by Russia and China.

    Worst soldier on this planet is the American soldier. Too scared to patrol out of green zones that they leave this to be done by their allies. It might be easy for US to bomb an area with napalms, chemical agents and daisy cutters as one thing while maintaining control through ground troops remains another where American soldiers fail miserably. Patriots forget to engage while cruise missiles had been shot down by fighter-interceptors. Stealth bombers are no longer invisible. Europeans shot one out of the sky while another similar intruding spy plane was downed by China and shipped back to US, nicely boxed.

    East (economy/military) is on the rise where Russia, China, India, Central Asian States, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and other Asian States are coming closer thanks to neo-colonial hegemonic designs of the west. The two giants Russia and China have already dropped USD from their trade. Gawadar control goes back to China while Iran-Pak-India pipeline will go ahead regardless of American dislike.

    An excerpt that paints not a rosy picture for the capitalist economies:

    One hundred years ago, fundamentally defective economic theories led to two world wars with millions killed. Today, the same defective economic theories are taught to students all over the world and are leading to a new generation of world wars with billions killed.
    Nowadays, the terms "democracy" and "market economy" are often used interchangeably. Political decisions in a market economy are stunningly simple: one dollar, one vote. In short, the market economy serves as a stealth political system to foster rational thought, universal values based on calculation, and world peace based on self-interest. The market economy succeeds because it satisfies our hunter/gatherer genetic drives for dominance, sex, food, and material possessions.

    America will soon lose the stability the framers worked so hard to create because it is becoming wholly dependent upon inherently unstable (authoritarian) oil-producing Muslim nations like Indonesia. It happened twenty-five years ago when OPEC quadrupled world oil prices and plunged America into "stagflation". Fortunately, the non-OPEC producers still had a HUGE unexploited oil cushion to fall back on and simply pumped central bankers out of their economic crisis.

    But that was 1973 and this is 2010 – 37 years later the oil cushion is gone. Muslim nations will soon control virtually all of the world’s oil exports. Since neither capital nor labor can create energy, the next round of energy-shortage-induced stagflation will leave central bankers helpless and they will seek military solutions to their economic problems.

    It is the best-kept secret in Washington, Whitehall, Brussels, and Jerusalem, but it is just a matter of time until word hits the street… The coming oil crunch.
    http://dieoff.org/page173.htm

    What will happen then, to the nations that waste more while conserve none still ogling greedily at resources that are not theirs at all?

    Might is right, that works now for the US. The same has begun working for others too.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 14:55 #
  25. shimatoree
    Member

    Mg-

    I have read everything that has been written so far in response to my last comment.

    All I see is slogans , make believe statements but no one has refuted one thing I have said in Ref: to the military power of the Empire to project it's political policy.

    The US lives on Oil- but so does the rest of the world.
    Imagine for a moment what these so-called economic upstarts will do if the price of oil goes to 250 dollars a barrel.

    The cost of production everywhere will go up- for sure.

    Well then, the products made in India and China and Indonesia will not be that cheap anymore.
    So the Yanks will start making them at home.

    Oh just keep in mind also the recent discoveries of oil in Brazil etc in the deep sea.
    Guess who are the companies doing that.
    Oh , sorry they are American companies and even the great BP could not do it without Transocean, Halliburton and Anadarko and Sclumberger etc etc.

    I simply cannot believe why it is so difficult to see a big rock lying there in front of everyone!

    Wishes ARE fishes !

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 15:17 #
  26. shimatoree
    Member

    Let me just say this.

    We have a long history of such behavior of denial and make believe.

    When Jalal Ud Din Khawazam Shah-( the son) told his father's court about the new military force of Changhiz Khan- everyone indulged in the similar type of hoopla and hysteria.-( Pidrum Soltan Bood )

    We shall destroy them if they dared.

    And so they killed the ambassadors of peace that Changhiz had sent.

    Well, you know the rest of the story.

    In the recent past( 1971) we heard the same mantra about the war like superiority of the " Muslim army" - well Gen.Niazi had to pay dearly for that boast.

    Wars are won by LOGISTICS and strategy and battle tactics- not by wishes.

    Try to think what makes it possible for a country to become an empire.
    If you do, then you will understand what and how much it might take for an Empire to go down.

    Try to come out with reasons to refute what is staring everyone in the face.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 15:26 #
  27. @shimatoree

    Most people like to spend their lives avoiding reality, dreaming is the only way escaping it. Let's face it, US of A ain't going anywhere, with all their economic and imperium hiuccups they are kicking and chilling as ever. For the Americans, the reality is Islam and Muslims ain't going anywhere, either. After all what they spend on war of terror, the events past 9/11 are just blips in the spectrum of Muslim history. At best, we can separate our wish from reality.

    Let's be evocative of T. S. Eliot's Four Quartets.

    Go, said the bird, for the leaves were full of children,
    Hidden excitedly, containing laughter.
    Go, go, go, said the bird: human kind
    Cannot bear very much reality.
    Time past and time future
    What might have been and what has been
    Point to one end, which is always present.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 16:06 #
  28. Shimatoree, it's all very well to dismiss what others put forward as slogans and fail to see what you might be saying could be taken as simple propaganda, as much wishful thinking as what you claim others are indulging in. But we'll leave that aside.

    About your US military might, I left that up to TL to refute because he's probably better informed than I am on such matters. Nota, too, would no doubt know loads about it. I refer you to Mirza Sahib's posting above. It answered many points, including the military one. You are only as good as the quality of your fighting men make you. Hardware does not win wars as the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan make daily clear to us. I'll add to this a mercenary army like the US army will not have the fervour to sacrifice their lives the way a national army does. That will also go against them.

    I shall certainly not spend time trying to think what makes an empire. I'd find it a waste of effort. I hate power in any form or shape. And in any case the answer for me is clear: glamour, in the original sense of the term: enchantment, bewitchment. Make the other party believe one is bigger than one actually is. That is what happened with Cortez and the Amerindians. That is what the Brits did in India, etc., etc.

    As for your Muslim examples, it would have been most apt had we not already had a taste of what the enemy is like. From then on they no longer really apply. All the other arguments about oil and who is to produce what goods do not hold weight in the present context which has gone far beyond simple one-to-one enmities. A huge tract of humanity is now standing up for its rights and this is a wholly new situation in world affairs.

    But have it your own way, shimatoree, you believe US will carry on for another two hundred years at least the way it's been doing, what harm is there in believing it? The truth as it unfolds will hit us all when the time is ripe.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 16:19 #
  29. BO, Thanks for the Eliot. This is the second time Eliot has been quoted in these columns. Each time I read him with renewed pleasure.

    And I'm glad SH has reinforcements in your person. Makes the whole discussion a bit fairer.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 16:24 #
  30. ^In the recent past( 1971) we heard the same mantra about the war like superiority of the " Muslim army" - well Gen.Niazi had to pay dearly for that boast.

    Perhaps this article will help better explain who was Niazi:

    The courageous Pakistan army stand on the eastern front —Sharmila Bose

    Sharmila Bose is the niece of Subhas Chandra Bose or Netaji of Indian National Army fame who fought against the British supporting the Japanese. He is a great hero in Bengal and India also.

    She is Assistant Editor, Ananda Bazar Patrika, India & Visiting Scholar, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University.

    There is much for Pakistan to come to terms with what happened in 1971. However, the answers do not lie in unthinking vilification of the fighting men who performed so well in the war against such heavy odds in defense of the national policy. Rather, in failing to honor them, the nation dishonors itself.

    My introduction to international politics was 1971, as a student in Calcutta. Many images from that year are still etched in my mind, but the culminating one was the photo on Ramna racecourse of two men sitting at a table — the smart, turbaned Sikh, ‘our’ war-hero, Jagjit Singh Aurora, and the large man in a beret, A K Niazi, commander of the other side, signing the instrument of surrender.

    Nearly a generation later, a chance interview for the BBC with Lt Gen. Aurora took me back to 1971. The interview was not about 1971, but about injustices suffered by Sikhs at the hands of the state General Aurora had served. I thought he was a bigger hero for what he had to say then. That view was reinforced as I read — with incredulity — the disparaging remarks by other Indian officers about him, and each other, in their books. If this is what happened to the winning commander, I wondered what had happened to the other man in the photo. The result was a revelation.

    It turns out that General Niazi has been my ‘enemy’ since the Second World War. As Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose and his Indian National Army fought on the Burma front in 1943-45 in their quest for India’s freedom, Niazi was fighting on the other side, for the British Indian Army, under the overall command of General (later Field Marshal) William Joseph Slim. Slim and his 14th Army halted the advance of the INA and the Japanese at the Imphal campaign and turned the course of the war.

    In the process of inflicting military defeat upon my ancestor, Niazi’s performance was so exceptional that the British awarded him an on-the-spot Military Cross for action on the Assam-Burma front in June 1944. On another occasion, they wanted to award a DSO, but he was too junior, so a Mention in Dispatches was recorded. In the original record of his MC signed by his commanding officers all the way up to Slim, which I obtained from the British Ministry of Defense, the British commanders describe Niazi’s gallantry in detail: “He organized the attack with such skill that his leading platoon succeeded in achieving complete surprise over the enemy.” They speak of how he personally led his men, the ‘great skill and coolness’ under fire with which he changed tactics with changing circumstances, created diversionary attacks, extricated his wounded, defeated the enemy and withdrew his men by section, remaining personally at the rear in every case.

    The British honored Niazi for “personal leadership, bravery and complete disregard for his own personal safety.” On 15 December 1944, the Viceroy Lord Wavell flew to Imphal and in the presence of Lord Mountbatten knighted Slim and his corps commanders Stopford, Scoones and Christison. Only two ‘Indian’ officers were chosen to be decorated by the Viceroy at that ceremony — ‘Tiger’ Niazi was one of them.

    In 1971 Niazi was a highly decorated Pakistani general, twice receiving the Hilal-e-Jurat. He was sent to East Pakistan in April 1971 — part of a sorry tradition in South Asia of political rulers attempting to find military solutions to political problems. By then Tikka Khan had already launched the crackdown of 25 March for which he has been known to Bengalis as the ‘butcher of Bengal ’ ever since. The population of East Bengal was completely hostile and Pakistan condemned around the world.

    Authoritative scholarly analyses of 1971 are rare. The best work is Richard Sisson and Leo Rose’s War and Secession. Robert Jackson, fellow of All Soul’s College, Oxford, wrote an account shortly after the events. Most of the principal participants did not write about it, a notable exception being Gen. Niazi’s recent memoirs (1998). Some Indian officers have written books of uneven quality — they make for an embarrassing read for what the Indians have to say about one another.

    However, a consistent picture emerges from the more objective accounts of the war. Sisson and Rose describe how India started assisting Bengali rebels since April, but “the Mukti Bahini had not been able to prevent the Pakistani army from regaining control over all the major urban centers on the East Pakistani-Indian border and even establishing a tenuous authority in most of the rural areas.” From July to October, there was direct involvement of Indian military personnel. “...mid-October to 20 November... Indian artillery was used much more extensively in support ...and Indian military forces, including tanks and air power on a few occasions, were also used...Indian units were withdrawn to Indian territory once their objectives had been brought under the control of the Mukti Bahini — though at times this was only for short periods, as, to the irritation of the Indians, the Mukti Bahini forces rarely held their ground when the Pakistani army launched a counterattack.”

    Clearly, the Pakistani army regained East Pakistan for their masters in Islamabad by April-May, creating an opportunity for a political settlement, and held off both Bengali guerrillas and their Indian supporters until November, buying more time — time and opportunity that Pakistan’s rulers and politicians failed to utilize.
    Contrary to Indian reports, full-scale war between India and Pakistan started in East Bengal on 21 November, making it a four-week war rather than a ‘lightning campaign’. Sisson and Rose state bluntly: “After the night of 21 November...Indian forces did not withdraw. From 21 to 25 November several Indian army divisions...launched simultaneous military actions on the entire key border regions of East Pakistan, and from all directions, with both armored and air support.” Indian officers like Sukhwant Singh and Lachhman Singh write quite openly in their books about India invading East Pakistani territory in November, which they knew was ‘an act of war’.

    None of the outside scholars expected the Eastern garrison to withstand a full Indian invasion. On the contrary, Pakistan’s longstanding strategy was “the defense of the east is in the west”. Jackson writes, “Pakistani forces had largely withdrawn from scattered border-protection duties into cleverly fortified defensive positions at the major centers inside the frontiers, where they held the entire major ‘place names’ against Mukti Bahini attacks, and blocked the routes of entry from India...”

    Sisson and Rose point out the incongruity of Islamabad tolerating India’s invasion of East Pakistani territory in November. On 30 November, Niazi received a message from General Hamid stating, “The whole nation is proud of you and you have their full support.” The same day Islamabad decided to launch an attack in the West on 2 December, later postponed to 3 December, after a two-week wait, but did not inform the Eastern command about it. According to Jackson, the Western offensive was frustrated by 10 December.

    Though futile, the Western offensive allowed India to openly invade the East, with overwhelming advantages. “ ...despite all these advantages, the war did not go as smoothly and easily for the Indian army...”, but Sisson and Rose come to the balanced judgment that “The Pakistanis fought hard and well; the Indian army won an impressive victory.” Even Indian officers concede the personal bravery of Niazi and the spirited fight put up by the Pakistanis in the East. That the troops fought so well against such overwhelming odds is a credit both to them, and to their commanders, for an army do not fight well in the absence of good leadership.

    However, as Jackson put it, “... India’s success was inevitable from the moment the general war broke out — unless diplomatic intervention could frustrate it.” As is well known, Pakistan failed to secure military or diplomatic intervention. Sisson and Rose also say, “The outcome of the conflict on the eastern front after 6 December was not in doubt, as the Indian military had all the advantages.” On 14 December, Niazi received the following message from Yahya Khan: “You have fought a heroic battle against overwhelming odds. The nation is proud of you ...You have now reached a stage where further resistance is no longer humanly possible nor will it serve any useful purpose... You should now take all necessary measures to stop the fighting and preserve the lives of armed forces personnel, all those from West Pakistan and all loyal elements...” Sisson and Rose naturally describe this message as “implying that the armed forces in East Pakistan should surrender”.

    No matter how traumatic the outcome of 1971 for Pakistan, the Eastern command did not create the conflict, nor were they responsible for the failure of the political and diplomatic process. Sent to do the dirty work of the political maneuvers, the fighting men seem to have performed remarkably well against overwhelming odds. It is shocking therefore to discover that they were not received with honor by their nation on their return.
    Their commander, Niazi, appears to have been singled out, along with one aide, to be punished arbitrarily with dismissal and denial of pension, without being given the basic right to defend himself through a court-martial, which he asked for.

    The commission set up allegedly to examine what had happened in 1971 was too flawed in its terms of reference and report to have any international credibility. However, even its recommendations of holding public trials and court-martials were ignored. There is much for Pakistan to come to terms with what happened in 1971. However, the answers do not lie in unthinking vilification of the fighting men who performed so well in the war against such heavy odds in defense of the national policy. Rather, in failing to honor them, the nation dishonors itself.

    MY NOTE: It was a political problem that was better left to the politicians to resolve - but sadly for the ego of some generals (Yahya+) and feudal minded civil servants (Bhutto+) who were scared of ascendancy of the middle class and of the loss of power that the civil servants and the generals had grabbed in 1958.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 16:33 #
  31. Longer the US and NATO remains bogged down in Afghanistan the more they will drain their resources.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 16:37 #
  32. "When Jalal Ud Din Khawazam Shah-( the son) told his father's court about the new military force of Changhiz Khan- everyone indulged in the similar type of hoopla and hysteria.-( Pidrum Soltan Bood )"
    And where is the Mongol Empire today? ;-)

    BTW: You conveniently missed my point:

    "It is true that in Iraq and in Afghanistan the US is facing a defeat on the battlefield.">

    But I thought you said "power comes from the barrel of the gun!" :)

    Now what happened there? And why didn't the end all and be all work in those two instances? Certainly the "bang" differential was much, much wider than say the China equation.

    Again my main point was that empires DO NOT need an equal or stronger opponent to collapse -- they JUST DO!!! (So whatever our strengths or weaknesses, they are irrelevant) There is something called "imperial overreach" and should be taken seriously ;-)

    P.S. How to Survive the Collapse of America

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 16:39 #
  33. @S.E.Mirza
    "some generals and feudal minded civil servants who were scared of ascendancy of the middle class and of the loss of power that the civil servants had grabbed in 1953 and the generals in 1958. "

    Could you please give me some more on that??

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 16:58 #
  34. In a sense I am adding my own observations of those time to what has been said; about Awami League that won majority seats and was not transferred power as their right.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:00 #
  35. http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-103/

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:13 #
  36. shimatoree
    Member

    nota-

    Your point about IMPLOSION is correct .

    But what my 86 yr old mother says is also correct- namely

    A dead elephant is still an elephant.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:15 #
  37. @S.E.Mirza
    I did hear that pretty recently somewhere else too but haven;t had the time to look into it. Just curious HOW civil servants had grabbed power in 1953 and the generals in 1958...

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:15 #
  38. Okay then. I will post in detail.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:19 #
  39. shimatoree
    Member

    What the granddaughter of Subhash Chandra Bose says is immaterial in the scenario of 1971.

    The military facts- not the political machinations determined the outcome.

    To carry out a military operation 1200 miles away
    with no imaginative military leadership,
    limited logistical support against an enemy who had the resources including a navy which placed an embargo - combined with no local population support- well the result is Bangladesh.

    ZAB is the culprit. Yahya et al were mere pawns of his.

    I had thought the topic was the impending demise of the Empire and therefore I have presented the evidence against that hypothesis.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:20 #
  40. Mirza Sahib: "Longer the US and NATO remain bogged down in Afghanistan the more they will drain their resources." You've put your finger on it. This is why one calls Afghanistan the Stalingrad of the West.

    nota, thanks for the "imperial overreach". That sums it up exactly.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:21 #
  41. @shimatoree
    "A dead elephant is still an elephant"
    Only briefly. And what a feast for maggots ;-)

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:22 #
  42. That was to clear Niazi's position. Yahya was reputed brave till the rank of Captain. Beyond that is only women and booze that one will find Yahya often in a dazed stupor who could be easily influencedby anyone. ZAB crafty and manipulative as usual was in his prime....

    The debate has not ended here. More to come.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:27 #
  43. Truthlover
    Member

    ST,
    It takes years to build something and only a jolt to become level with ground.
    In boxer’s ring it matters to weigh but not in real combat, only the survivors and winners count in the history, how the success was achieved is not relevant and thus the western civilizations success story.
    I’ll come back with a detailed answer to your question as soon as I get a chance. I find this thread very interesting.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 17:27 #
  44. shimatoree
    Member

    MG-

    Quote- "Longer the US and NATO remain bogged down in Afghanistan the more they will drain their resources."

    Yes-

    BUT they have a lot of resources.
    It is they who make the air planes-( Boeing and Airbus) to sell to everyone
    It is they who make Mercedes Benz, BMW, Rolls Royce( engines and cars)
    It is they who make Jet engines that you buy
    It is they who make the F-16s that you buy
    It they who design and built the computer chips.
    Their Navy is bigger than the next 32 navies combined- and that includes China , India and Russia and Japan.

    So they have the resources. Yes they will have to leave so that they do not have to spend 10 billion a month and then they can buy the Muslim leaders of Pakistan for 1 1/2 billion per year or less.

    And their people pay their Taxes. All they have to do is to increase their taxes by 10 %.

    The rest of the argument a bit later.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 18:00 #
  45. nsdap
    Member

    What a looser mentality.

    Instead of working on our own prosperity, we are debating the future of the USA.

    China is the next superpower and I am sure that our future generations would be CURSING the Chinese Empire and predicting its downfall. Pakistan would still remain as it is now.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 18:06 #
  46. shimatoree
    Member

    nsdap-

    you want to start a thread about

    " working on our own prosperity "

    Let us all see what proposals YOU got.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 18:21 #
  47. shimatoree, we'll get to our own prosperity later on. Let's concentrate on the matter in hand, singularly but fruitfully expanded, for the moment. Though I will allow myself to say this: One: I buy nothing at all from the US, not jets, and none of their other gadgets either. Anything that comes into my hands is always China made. Their planes too are of little use to me. While awaiting Chinese ventures into this field, EU provides us with bigger and better ones, or so I'm told by people more in the know.

    Anyway, to hit on a Paistan which is down, is not exactly fair or funny. Today's Pakistan will in no way resemble that which is yet to come. And at the risk of sounding ridiculous, let me add: take this statement to the bank and deposit it. It will pay off dividends in the harsh times ahead. And this goes for you, too, nsdap.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 18:49 #
  48. aftab arif
    Member

    Very Interesting thread, though i have nothing further to add but reading with great pleasure.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 19:26 #
  49. shimatoree
    Member

    MG-

    I was once a 14 year old too.

    I have also heard that " things will get better- just wait and be patient" quite a bit.
    Now I am a lot older and I hear the same thing again and again.

    I would believe it if I saw something that gave me some evidence of the trend of improvement.
    It is either I have gone blind or I have lost my mind or both.

    The study of History tells me one thing- history repeats itself.
    Why does it do that /

    Because those that are in the position to make history remain the same.

    My diatribes against the so-called " Golden" period of Islamic history merely point out the problem that both you and I face today.
    And that is that Yazeed amd Shimmer are alive and doing very well today and they will continue to do well in yours and my lifetimes.
    That is the sad part of it.
    Look we had the WANA Be Air Ul Momeneen Nawaz Shareef with a 2/3 rd majority. What stopped him from doing the right thing ? Why he did not do it.
    Then Musharraf came and everyone thought things will get better. They did not. He sold the country.
    Then BB became the agent of the West, made NRO with Musharraf and did the unkindest cut of all- Zardari and Geelani.

    And you are telling me that Pakistan is somehow by MAGIC going to get better.

    Either I am a cynic and a sceptic or you are a bad magician
    or both.

    You are a bit irritated with my argument- it seems but am I telling the truth or not. That is the only thing I am interested in.
    Well, Am I telling the truth ?

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 19:28 #
  50. Shimatoree, Sorry. No, I am not irritated. If I gave that impression it's because I suddenly took Pakistan's defence in forceful terms. That is because I do believe in the future of this country heart, soul and intellect. Apparently, my childhood in this country and that spent by others here met at no common point. Pakistan of old and Pakistan today are two absolutely different things. So our contstant repetition of 63 years of the same corrupt existence is not how I view matters. This by way of introduction.

    Yes, you are telling the truth. Facts are facts and I do not tamper with facts to suit my own needs whatever they may be. When you lament over the missed opportunities of a Nawaz Shareef or a Musharraf, etc., I am with you all the way. A long line of mediocre, corrupt politicians has almost strangled us to death in recent times. I'm certainly not going to deny that. But to go on from there to say never again will Pakistan have a leader of strength and integrity is too much for me to take. the absolutely self sufficient country that is Pakistan to be reduced to the straits it has because of non- and misgoveranance really takes some doing. It has all gone on for long enough now. The laws of probability suggest to me we are now finally due the reappearance of a real leader to guide us back to health and sanity.

    Shimatoree, you are neither blind nor out of your wits. You are, if anything, a victim of repeated disappointments, each of which has left a profound mark. I'm more stoical perhaps. I shrug off my disappointments and continue to await better times. And then each positive thing that happens, I keep chalking them up, but history's time is not in keeping with my own. That, too, I know so I'm never in too much of a hurry. I'm a bad magician, SH, I'll not deny that. But the signs of impending change are so clear all round us, how come others don't get shivers down their backs as well.

    I have this very clear sense that by December 2011 much in the world and not just Pakistan will be considerably different. Shall we make a firm appointment for Dec 20, 2011 to compare notes then? If I'm right, you'll stand me a glass of lassi (not a Dec drink, I know, but I do love lassi). The other way round, my turn to treat you to your favourite drink.

    And BTW: history repeats itself is a time-honoured adage. But it also comes with a lot of surprises up its sleeve. Perhaps the surprises will outdo the repetitions within the next twelve months, God willing.

    Posted 1 year ago on 20 Dec 2010 21:15 #

RSS feed for this topic

Reply »

You must log in to post.