PKPolitics Discuss » Current Issues

Voting PTI will make PPP win next elections - Dr Farrukh Saleem

(152 posts)
  1. Maurice Duverger, a French politician, a jurist and an emeritus professor of the Sorbonne, was the first to discover that countries practicing single-member district plurality (SMDP), or as we call them first-past-the-post or winner-takes-all, end up breeding a two-party system. In Pakistan, we have a voting system whereby “voters have a single vote which they can cast for a single candidate in their constituency, in which only one legislative seat is available.”

    As a consequence of SMDP-based elections in 1970, 1977, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997, 2002 and 2008, Pakistan has a two party electoral system (frequent military interventions have at times distorted the natural evolution of a two-party system). As per Duverger’s Law we have the PPP and the PML-N; two major parties with dissimilar ideologies. Under the Law, if the PTI, a minor party, tries to exploit established vote banks, the PTI will draw votes from a major party most similar to the PTI. And, that would most certainly be the PML-N not the PPP (as a result, the PPP, the most dissimilar party to the PTI, will win). What then is the probability that the PPP would come back with a majority? A two-third majority?

    In 2008, Karachi elected 20 MNAs, the most from any one city. The MQM won 17 general seats and the PPP won three. The NA-239, 248 and 258 are PPP strongholds. In NA-248, Nabeel Ahmed Gabol of PPP polled some 85 percent of all valid votes. NA-240, Karachi II, was hotly contested but MQM won by a small margin.

    Lahore sends in 12 MNAs. Here, NA-118, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 127 and 128 are the PML-N’s traditional strongholds where its candidates win by extra-wide margins. Moreover, NA-119 was won by Hamza Shehbaz, uncontested. In NA-125 Khawaja Saad Rafique polled more than 70,000 votes. NA-129, Lahore XII, was hotly contested by the PML-N, PPP and PML-Q but the PPP won. In NA-130, the PPP won and next time around the PTI would further cut down the PML-N and the PPP will win with a wider margin.

    Faisalabad has 11 general seats of which eight are in rural areas. Of the total population around 64 percent is rural. According to extensive research into election results from 1977, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002 conducted by Dr Mughees Ahmed, “Only biradaries in numerical majority are successful. It means that people cast their votes to biradari supported candidates.” Six of the largest biradaries are Jaat, Rajput, Arain, Kharal, Baloch and Gujar. For the PTI to win a seat or two in Faisalabad, Imran Khan would have to team up with one or more of the six biradaries.

    Balochistan has a total of 14 general seats. In NA-259 and 260, the PTI can be a spoiler whereby the PPP will win by even wider margins. Most other constituencies are strongholds of the Jamalis, Jogezais, Mandokhails, Kakars, Bugtis, Rinds, Marris, Kurds, Durranis and Bizenjos. Is the PTI going to join forces with the sardars?

    Can the PTI grab a seat or two in Sukkar, Ghotki, Shikarpur, Nawabshah, Khairpur, Hyderabad, Badin, Mirpurkhas, Tharparkar, Dadu, Sanghar or Thatta? Looks very, very difficult. Can the PTI win one of the four seats from Peshawar? What are PTI’s chances in Nowshera, Charsada, Mardan, Swabi, Kohat, Karak, Haripur or Mansehra? How about Abbotabad? May be a couple of seats-at best.

    Punjab sends in 148 MNAs. The PTI’s chances in Lodhran, Khanewal, Pakpattan, Vehari, DG Khan, Rajanpur, Muzafargarh, Layyah, Bahawalpur and Bahawalnagar are quite dismal. How about winning a handful of seats from Sargodha, Mianwalli, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Sheikhupura and Multan? Perhaps, but a handful at best. Imran Khan is bound to become the ‘spoiler’ whereby the PTI’s candidates have little or no chance of wining but the party’s presence in the election will draw votes from the PML-N thus causing the PPP to win by even wider margins. To be certain, the ‘spoiler effect’ has a firm statistical basis referred to as the ‘independence of irrelevant alternatives’.

    Source: The News - 7th Aug 2011

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 0:38 #
  2. saladin89

    I do not agree, PPP popularity is at a new low, as long as Mr 10% is leader they cannot win. PTI will grab votes from PPP and especially PML N.

    Why would PPP get votes?

    Belive me corruption, load shedding and justice, jobs etc are killing Pakistani people. The majority blame PPP.
    This public that is burning in there homes due to load shedding and cursing Zardari.

    Even the polls suggest Mr 10% has the lowest rating, that any leader has ever had.

    The only way PPP can win is through rigged votes (45%)
    But N$ party is also the badshah of rigging votes.

    I cannot see PPP being an option to the voter. They will either vote for PML N or PTI.

    I think that as long as there is a free and fair election than PTI will win clearly.

    But let's accept your theory, what should IK do, not run for elections and allow N$ who is the prince of corruption in Pakistan to become leader.

    If the choice is between Mr 10% and N$ then I choose neither.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 1:03 #
  3. aftab

    Nothing for PTI too be worried about. The only party that is going to feel the pinch is PML-N, PTI are just building up they support base for the future.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 1:12 #
  4. Dusky

    "Voting PTI will make PPP win next elections"

    If so, so be it. Let's the democracy flourish.

    Beside PTI was a non factor in last election, even then PPP won. N$ should be concentrating on whats "wrong" with him and his party rather then provoking fear and hate about other parties. To me, this seems a losing mentality, they are creating excuses in advance for their defeat in next elections.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 4:29 #
  5. @Dusky,

    If so, so be it. Let's the democracy flourish.

    Then what is the point of PTI's dharna and protests? PTI should shutup and let the democracy flourish. PTI should also stay shutup when PPP wins next time through PTI.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 6:56 #
  6. @aftab,

    If PPP wins next time, it is nothing to be worried about for PTI, since this is exactly what they are intending to do.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 6:56 #
  7. @saladin89,

    As Dr. Farrukh Saleem mentioned, PTI does not have chance of winning most of the seats specially outside Punjab.

    In rural areas, which has the most number of seats, people don't vote for PPP but they vote for their local person. The same person can be with PPP, PMLQ, PMLN and people don't care.

    So your theory that PPP will loose popularity is a joke :-)

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 7:01 #
  8. Scandinavian

    This is off course yet another campaign from the "Muslim" league and "senior" member of PKP. Since most people don't see significant difference between Zardari "sab choroN par bhari" and N$+$$ nexus, then nobody cares about the above mentioned scenario. The ground reality is that "Muslim" league is infested with as many thugs as PPP, so there will be no difference IF "Muslim" league won any future elections.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 8:28 #
  9. PTI may win some seats but not enough so as to bring about a much needed change.
    This time PPP won't be having a sympathy vote they got after Benazir was murdered.
    They are deeply despised by the public in Pakistan.
    PPP will win only and only by rigging elections.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 8:35 #
  10. @Scandinavian,

    Dr. Farrukh Saleem is also on NS payroll now and running his campaign .. ishq waqaee hee andha hota hay ;-)

    If something like NS and Zardari nexus exists, it would be still much better than Imran Khan + ISI Pasha nexus.

    There will be no difference between Imran and Musharraf where their parties don't have roots in ground and took power by taking turn coats from other parties.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 8:54 #
  11. @SE Mirza,

    This time PPP won't be having a sympathy vote they got after Benazir was murdered.

    How did PPP get votes in recent AJK elections?
    How did PPP win seats in recent by-elections?

    All rigging I guess?

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 9:00 #
  12. I guess you got it. When a very last majority of Pakistani citizens openly talk against the PPP,their government and policies, then how can you justify winning seats in any election? AJK elections could have been anything but fair!

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 9:25 #
  13. azeem20

    i agree with farukh saleem analysis. PTI is setting its campaign against Nawaz shareef. why doesnt IK gave a challenge to zardari to compete in larkana against him, why not MQM to compete against him in Karachi, why not ANP to compete against him in KPK, why only NS.
    As per my information (as i am in media) the pas e chilman halqay are making PTI to weaken NS only, Ns votes will automatically be decreased due to PML Q now PTI wil further persue this agenda. strange all guns towards one person. interestingly the "naye subey" shosha is also set to weaken NS in punjab, why new provinces in punjab only, why not in baluchistan, KPk and sindh.
    seems like new sort of IJI is being set for new elections against Ns as it was set against BB in early 90s.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 9:33 #
  14. secularists

    Could not agree more with the article.

    I do not know what is the PTI I thinking? The country is still divided between pro-PPP and anti PPP vote and the anti-PPP folks on this forum should recognize that the PPP vote bank would at best stay home and certainly not going to vote for some other party. Through out Punjab and Sindh there are entire biradaris loyal to PPP and that is not going to change. Especially with Bilawal Zardari making speeches everywhere.

    It would be best if Imran Khan and PML-N do some kind of seat adjustment so the vote bank does not get divided. This will be best for democracy and Pakistan.

    Ironically PPP has already entered into an electoral alliance with PMLQ for 2013 elections which in my opinion my give it a simple majority in parliament.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 9:38 #
  15. 2011pakistan

    PPP + MQM + PMLQ + JUIF + ANP + PMLF + FATA + establishment +USA/West all are allied against NS/PMLN.

    PTI is playing in the hands of PPP led coalition to harm PMLN/NS.

    Politics is name of gaining opportunity by hook or by crook. IK is now, running on same way.

    All the efforts are being taken to curtail NS/PMLN.

    It is sure that next elections will also give winning opportunity to PPP led present group of corrupt opportunists.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 9:48 #
  16. Scandinavian

    "USA/West all are allied against NS/PMLN."

    Ha, ha..ha. This must be a joke. N$ and $$ has on a routinely basis been in contact with their western masters to "secure" a vote for a future government. The West is only interested in securing a compliant government and in this case there is NO difference between PPP and "Muslim" league. Raymond Davis case is a clear example on how "Muslim" League, PPP and the agencies screw the nation! The public demand was justice, but all they got was anything but justice.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:00 #
  17. 2011pakistan

    scandinavian,
    you have not mentioned the role of establishment in R.D case.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:07 #
  18. Scandinavian

    I don't care whether Farrukh Saleem is paid to do the job or it is his genuine opinion. IMO Pakistan Plunder Party (PPP)=Pakistan "Muslim" League (PML-AtoZ). There is NO difference apart from faces!

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:14 #
  19. Scandinavian

    @2011

    Take agencies as "establishment" in this case. They were all together in this crime.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:15 #
  20. Hussain Farooqui

    I who are other potential candidates of PTI to win seats in the next elections? Other than Imran, there seems to be no popular leader in PTI. No doubt, wherever, Imran stands as a candidate, he will not be an easy challenge for his opponents. Imran has himself become a potential candidate, but I doubt the popularity of his colleagues as potential political candidates. Although, some of his candidates like Dr.Shireen Mazari are respected as well educated and brilliant people, but their political popularity is doubtful.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:25 #
  21. Adonis

    It is in PML-N's hand whether it allows PTI to dent its vote bank or not. The coming elections can either be a replay of 1993 elections when Qazi Hussain Ahmed's Pakistan Islamic Front played a spoiler, losing badly itself but getting enough votes to ensure that PML-N does not emerge as the single largest party. Or these can be a replay of 1997 elections when the anti-PPP sentiment was so high that PML-N rode through it to a 2/3rd majority depriving all smaller parties from getting any significant votes.

    As far as conventional wisdom goes, PML-N has not done much wrong in the last three and a half years. Its sole slogan during elections was restoration of judges and it managed to do it with aplomb. It refrained from playing the dirty opposition game of confrontation of 1990s and behaved as an opposition party in any civilized country does. Even though those who are not familiar with how a democracy works, accuse it of being friendly opposition, this slogan does not much affect the PML-N vote bank.

    Its rule in Punjab has been fine and there has been no significant corruption scandal. The party gets kudos for all its right moves. But there have been some missteps as well. 18th amendment is an impractical document and without down-sizing of current provinces, this amendment has made governance a nightmare in Pakistan. Then PML-N's support of Pakhtoonkhwa name did not go well with its vote bank in Hazara and North Punjab. Similarly, Nawaz Sharif's infatuation with friendly relations with India does not rhyme with the views of his voters. But the PML-N voter is a different lot than PPP voter. He votes for PML-N not for any emotional, sentimental reasons or for ethnic bias, but because he supports the right wing liberal nationalist ideology that Muslim League has traditionally espoused. PML-N voter does not think that Nawaz Sharif is a super-human, an angel and God's gift to Pakistan, but he rather considers him to be the best choice among the field available.

    Even with the advent of Imran Khan and PTI, the reasons that PML-N voter votes for PML-N do not change. In fact, Imran Khan's totally inane and unfair campaign against PML-N has further gelled the support for Nawaz Sharif and PML-N voter is now becoming more convinced that Imran Khan is just an establishment stooge who has been sent in the field by GHQ to ensure that PML-N does not come to power.

    No matter what Imran Khan says, an average Pakistani voter is not willing to accept that there is no difference between PPP and PML-N. Given a choice only between the two, a vast majority prefers PML-N any day.

    The real threat to PML-N does not come from Imran Khan but from the apathy of its own voters who are now looking for a bit more than fulfilling of election promise of 2008. For many voters, Punjab government's fine performance is not enough, it should be significantly better. The voter is not satisfied by schemes like Aashiana, Danish School, Yellow Cab etc, which though good are not enough. The voter is more interested in seeing an appreciable fall in crimes, better performance from police and a more intensive check on the performance of provincial govt. officials. This is where PML-N's Punjab govt has to work hard instead of sitting easy on "we are better than other provincial governments". Being better than zero (which other provincial and federal govt are) is hardly a trophy. So this is where PML-N needs to concentrate in the next year and a half.

    PML-N has to be more pro-active instead of reacting to issues created by PPP. New provinces can be one such issue where PML-N should go beyond the Seraiki provinces floated by PPP. Dividing Punjab into five smaller provinces will also vastly improve governance and PML-N has to seriously look into doing that.

    PML-N has to try and frame the next elections as a choice between PPP and PML-N. PTI currently is a non-player with prospects of getting even 15,000 votes in only 7 constituencies in Punjab. PML-N must keep it that way by significantly improving its governance in Punjab and by becoming more active in Sindh.

    P.S: It would also help a lot if Nawaz Sharif's relatives like Ishaq Dar are kept far far away from any position of responsibility because he made a mess of things both during Charter of democracy and 18th amendment negotiations.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:30 #
  22. Scandinavian

    @HF

    If PTI had brought in known faces=corrupt people then you would have maligned PTI and rightly too, but this is NOT the case. You know very well that most known faces are corrupt and hence you will see new faces from PTI in the next elections. Off course you don't know these people, yet. If you want a relief from thieves and robbers then vote for a change=PTI!

    Here are politicians from PTI who represent the party on a regular basis in debates:

    - Omar Cheema

    - Respected and well known lawyer, Hamid Khan

    - Dr. Akber Sher Baber. Very good representative of PTI on political affairs.

    - Dr. Arif Alvi is well known.

    - Shireen Mazari, you have already mentioned her.

    - Naeem-Ul-haque. Very capable in the field of economic affairs.

    The below mentioned people also appear in debate programs from time to time.

    - Brig (R) Samson Sharaf. Defence issues.

    - Admiral (R) Javed Iqbal. Defence issues.

    - Ejaz Ch., religious affairs

    - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi, education

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:40 #
  23. Scandinavian

    @Adonis & rasheed

    If you people are so convinced that the nexus of N$ and $$ are doing so "fine" then let them face the public. My suggestion is it should be a program like "faisla aap ka".

    I am quite convinced that at least N$ will never dare to let himeself be exposed in any show which reminds of "Faisla aap ka".

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 10:46 #
  24. Scandinavian,

    - Omar Cheema

    - Respected and well known lawyer, Hamid Khan

    - Dr. Akber Sher Baber. Very good representative of PTI on political affairs.

    - Dr. Arif Alvi is well known.

    - Shireen Mazari, you have already mentioned her.

    - Naeem-Ul-haque. Very capable in the field of economic affairs.

    The below mentioned people also appear in debate programs from time to time.

    - Brig (R) Samson Sharaf. Defence issues.

    - Admiral (R) Javed Iqbal. Defence issues.

    - Ejaz Ch., religious affairs

    - Sadaqat Ali Abbasi, education

    I don't think any of these can win elections from any constituencies. PTI's election candidates will be only from ex-PMLQ, PMLN and PPP etc, and they will only join if they don't get ticket from other party. Of course if PTI wins, the cabinet will be formed of those Ex-PMLQ etc guys, not your specialists.

    Regarding talkshows, just tell Imran Khan can't even face someone like Khawja Asif or Ahsan Iqbal from PMLN, since he has BIG EGO.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:03 #
  25. Hussain Farooqui

    Scandanavian

    Tehreek Istiqlal of Retd. Air Martial Asghar Khan also contained a lot of people who were well known for their merits in their respective fields, but a very few out of them were very popular political leaders.Asghar Khan himself was a very successful man as the Air Martial of PAF and then the Chairman of PIA. But his political party could not get any success. The case of Imran seems to be similar. He accomplished a World Cup and then established a very good hospital, but his political party does not seem to be taking any strong feet on the political grounds.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:12 #
  26. Scandinavian

    "Regarding talkshows, just tell Imran Khan can't even face someone like Khawja Asif or Ahsan Iqbal from PMLN, since he has BIG EGO."

    No, it's not about ego. It's about debating and your Mushahid Ullah has clearly shown how a "debate" will be, so there is no reason to talk to N$'s employees.

    Btw: I knew you would chicken out re. letting N$ participate in a prg. like "Faisla aap ka". He doesn't have the guts and nor the courage to face the common man.

    Re. winning the next elections: Whatever theory you have will fail, inshallah! PTI can also absorb people from other parties, but they will only hold a position if they don't have garbage in the baggage. If you have anything on people who have moved to PTI, then present your proves.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:15 #
  27. Scandinavian

    @HF

    "The case of Imran seems to be similar. He accomplished a World Cup and then established a very good hospital, but his political party does not seem to be taking any strong feet on the political grounds."

    I'd rather see IK end up like Asgher Khan - still a well respected citizen of Pakistan - than he changes his vision for Pakistan i.e. be in an alliance with known crooks. He will always get my vote as long as he is on the right path! It is duty of each Pakistani to support what they consider as the right man and not start to speculate in all sorts of strange issues like "what if he dies", "he is alone", "We don't know anybody else in the party", "PTI votes will benefit PPP" etc. IMO these are all lame excuses for not supporting the just cause. If people like Asgher khan and PTI/IK fails then it's the failure of the entire nation and not only the mentioned persons!

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:23 #
  28. @Scandinavian,

    So you agree that PTI will absorb corrupt people from all parties, but they will only hold position if they are clean?

    What a joke!

    Nawaz Sharif does NOT need to be present himself in any program, since this is NOT a one man party like PTI. There are hundreds of MNAs and MPAs who are always available to answer any questions that public have regarding PMLN and their leadership.

    However Nawaz Sharif regularly makes public speeches and faces tough questions on live TV in front of senior journalists without any issue.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:30 #
  29. The bottom line is ... I would still vote for Imran Khan even if that makes Zardari win .. kiyon kay ishq andha hota hay :-)

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:31 #
  30. jaypk

    another disguised lover and saviour of NS...:P...

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:54 #
  31. Scandinavian

    "The bottom line is ... I would still vote for Imran Khan even if that makes Zardari win"

    Exactly, because they are friends and as equally responsible for the state of affairs in Pakistan. On top of that both have NO vision for Pakistan. The only aim is loot and plunder.

    ".. kiyon kay ishq andha hota hay".

    If you mean "ishq" re. a vision for Pakistan then I agree ;)

    "So you agree that PTI will absorb corrupt people from all parties, but they will only hold position if they are clean?"

    NO, I say no party can be 100% clean, and if somebody is found guilty then he/she should hold no position and on contrary be thrown out. Unlike PPP and PMl then PTI is a party with principles and hence we will not tolerate the wrong people! Their place is and will remain in PPP and PML.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 11:56 #
  32. khan0864

    My dear brothers,who is pleased with present rulers? only those who have share in corruption or who have usurped bank loans or grabbed plots.It is only "Imran Bhai" who had never been the part of any govt in Pakistan during the last 63 years.Imran Khan did not usurp bank loans, did not grab land or plot.Apart from political activites, he is also fulfilling social commitments just like establishing cancer hospital at Lahore and Karachi.Imran Bhai is the only hope for the poor.No longer will people vote corrupters any more in Pakistan.

    Karachi is the stronghold of MQM but MQM and PPP both were defeated by MMA in 2002 elections in four constituencies at Karachi.Even MQM was surprsed at its defeat by MMA.If MMA is formed and takes part in next elections, it will make dent to both PPP and PML(N) in Khaibar Pukhtoonwa province.It shows that if MQM is defeated in four constituencies at Karachi.Why PPP and PML(N) will not be defeated by PTI.The common men are cursing both these parties nowadays and the conditions will be further difficult for PPP and PML(N).

    May Allah protect "Imran Bhai" from corrupters and terrorists.I request all brothers and sisters who never voted any party till today, must come out of their house to cast vote in favour of Imran Khan to make Pakistan a welfare state.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 12:03 #
  33. justhuman

    @rasheed. My Idea is to let Imran win against Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. At-least, for people like me it is a conscious decision and not an 'Andha Ishq' . PPP and PML(N) have been tried many times and they delivered nothing (Currently they both are in power one in center and other in the biggest province ) . So Imran , even he is not perfect, provides that third option that is needed to knock both of them off.
    "Woh" akaila hi chala tha janib e manzil magar
    Humsufur milte gaye aur karwan banta gaya.

    For me , rooting and voting for Imran khan is the vote against Status-quo and current rotten system.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 12:15 #
  34. ExPosed

    Every party has the right to go to people for the election campaign. This is not kingdom of raiwind where you expect all people to sit in favor of the raiwind khalifah so he can win from all over.

    Stop compalaining and do something on your own mr nawab ghareeb. I know you are in shock since the 2nd may incident which killed one of your sponsors.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 13:19 #
  35. ExPosed

    This one is from Rasul Bakhsh Rais is also interesting to read. Things will definitely change by the election time. Lets see how parties channelise the events in the coming days.

    Kaptaan, the country’s most popular leader
    By Rasul Bakhsh Rais
    Published: July 13, 2011

    The writer is professor of political science at LUMS


    The question is if and how Imran Khan will convert these changes into a political advantage in the next parliamentary elections. My gut feeling is he will. He has energy, commitment and popular appeal. The great kaptaan presents a very clear agenda of change that no other leader or party can match. Change, credibility and popular appeal will define the new politics of Pakistan, which the kaptaan represents.

    Published in The Express Tribune, July 14th, 2011.

    Source

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 13:31 #
  36. فارغ جذباتی

    میرے خیال میں ڈاکٹر فرخ سلیم کی تحقیق اصل میں عمران خان کو فائدہ پہچانے کیلئے ہے

    اس تحقیق میں اصل میں بتایا گیا ہے کہہ عمران خان اور پی ٹی آئی کو انتخابات جیتنے کیلئے کیا کچھ کرنا ہوگا

    اس طرح کے کام اصل میں فائدہ پہچانے کیلئے ہوتے ہیں نا کہہ نقصان کیلئے . اس تحقیق میں عمران خان کو ممکنہ رکاوٹوں کے بارے میں آگاہ کیا گیا ہے اور اس بات کی طرف اشارہ کیا گیا ہے کہہ ان رکاوٹوں کو کیسے دور کرنا ہے

    اس کے ساتھ ساتھ مسلم لیگ نون کو بھی پیغام بھیجا گیا ہے کہہ بہتر ہے آپ عمران خان سے اتحاد بنا لیں ورنہ عمران خان تو شائد چند سیٹیں جیت لے گا لیکن آپ کا ستیاناس بلکہ سوا ستیاناس کر کے چھوڑے گا

    اب دیکھنا یہ ہو گا کہہ نون لیگ اسکو سنجیدگی سے لیتی ہے یا اپنے مغرور رویے کی وجہ سے اپنا بیڑا غرق کرتی ہے

    ف ج

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 13:44 #
  37. @justhuman,

    tried PPP and PML(N) many times ...

    Exactly this is what Musharraf said in 1999 and see what he left the country with.

    At least there was no shortage of basic necessities like electricity, gas and water when PMLN left after their short government in 1999 despite worst sanctions in history of Pakistan. There were countless number of mega projects started in those time and many completed too in these quick government, including financial reforms, Karachi/Lahore airports, motorways, telecom revolution, gawadar, JFK thunder jet etc.

    Just like Musharraf, Imran Khan does not have roots in ground and both single person party leaders are making their political party stand on borrowed and used politicians from other parties. The whole party collapse if something happens to Imran Khan. If people are tired of same faces in other parties, now they will see the same faces in PTI.

    Imran Khan has been in politics from 15 years. What was stopping him to establish good people from scratch in each constituency in Pakistan? These new persons could demonstrate some good work everywhere and make their name from zero level, but his stupidity and dictatorial attitude has left him alone in his one man party and now looking to snatch rejected ones from others.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 13:59 #
  38. @Scandinavian
    Thanks for the 'Faisla Aap ka' videos

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 14:19 #
  39. Just_one

    I don't know if Farrukh Saleem is an agent of PMLN or not, but a person who takes terms and concepts from western political theory and context, and applies them blindly to the defective state of affairs in Pakistan, is an extremely naive person.

    I don't know why these people are even called intellectuals, or how they have attained a position to publish their articles in respectable newspapers of the country. But anyhow, we have to live with it.

    Pakistan has yet to see a sound democracy, based on fair play and independent institutions. Most of the elections in Pakistan's history are tall tales of fraud, rigging, corruption, feudalism, thuggery and a whole host of other social ills.

    To apply the mentioned concept of the French political scientist, first you need an efficient and working democratic setup with the basic prerequisites - like independent election commission, judiciary, accountability buearu etc - in place, ensuring some kind of free and fair election to begin with. No such thing exists in Pakistan.

    Secondly, you need two GENUINE political parties to discuss them under a political theory. In the two scenarios here, you have, not parties, but gangs and mafias, consisted of corrupt to the core, greedy and masquerading feudals, industrialists, tax evaders and thugs.

    PPP started of as a genuine party, soon got hijacked by personality worship, hereditary politics, corruption and feudalism.

    PMLN was never a genuine political party to begin with. It was the creation generals who wanted to damage another party. It was and is a collection of opportunists who want to abuse power for their vested interests.

    When did these party actually win a fair and free elections?

    There are 180 million people living in Pakistan, with only about 80 million registered votes in the lists used on 2008 elections. Out of that 80 million votes, 37 million votes turned out to be fake and bogus. The PPP's current government is based on just over 10 million votes it supposedly got (how many of them would be fake is another consideration). If we take into account the other party being discussed here, PMLN, the total vote bank of both the parties in the 2008 elections is not more than 13 million.

    Considering the percentage of fake votes that might be present in the votes gathered by these parties, how can they claim to have any legitimacy in ruling over 180 million people? And I am yet to mention the infamous NRO, the establishment's hand in the last election.

    There is NO democracy in Pakistan at the moment. These two parties are NOT political parties, but mafias and gangs.

    Farruckh Saleem's theory is the product of a mindset which thinks intellectualism is in copying western terms and employing them blindly on any situation. He has paid no serious attention to the ground realities of Pakistan and lives in a la la land where Pakistan is an efficient working democracy on par with UK, France or Switzerland. His views are only empty relief to the PMLN's members who would use it to score points against Imran Khan.

    They have no literary or political merit though.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 15:23 #
  40. insaftak

    If only pml(n) & their supporters paid as much attention to the problems of pakistanis as pti. They would have been popular but even now they are focusing on pti instead of core issues of Pakistan. Gone are the days of ppp (left) and anti-ppp(right). This is a new era where the fight is no longer between left & right but right or wrong. There is no difference between ppp & pml(n). Their economic policy, their foreign policy and their tax policy are all same. Both federal gov't and Punjab government are wasting taxpayers money and are increasing indirect taxes.

    A vote for ppp or pml(n) is a vote for corrupt, tax evading status quo. I know, I along with my family and friends will be voting for change in next election.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 15:33 #
  41. Just_one

    @Rasheed,

    Hamid Khan belonged to which party before he joined PTI? Dr Alvi belong to which party before he joined PTI? Shireen Mizari belonged to which party before he joined PTI? And there are a whole host of other prominent names in PTI.

    You don't know what you are talking about. Constituency politics is another thing in a parliamentary democracy. Candidates grow through their work and reputation in a given constituency. It s then up to them to join any political party, which they think will increase their support. Till now, genuine candidates who wanted to do something for their constituency , did not have a third option in the shape of a political party.

    Now they have one, and they will be welcomed if their past record is free of corruption (this does not include empty PMLN's allegations, a party whose leadership is itself corrupt. PMLN will certainly try to throw mud on anyone who leaves it).

    This doesn't make PTI a party of old faces, but a party of Pakistan incorporating people free of dirt marks on their character into a bright future for the country.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 15:35 #
  42. Shirazi

    @Just_one

    While you are after Dr. Farrukh Saleem for calling the spade a spade please don't over look

    http://tribune.com.pk/story/226563/imran-khan-the-leader-the-pawn/

    :)

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 15:50 #
  43. Adonis

    Again, PTI is not a problem for PML-N. The only potential problem for PML-N is if the voter apathy for the whole electoral process increases in the face of bad economic conditions.

    PTI is no more than a fly which buzzes around and one gets irritated by the noise it makes, but it can do no harm to you. The "strength" of PTI "support" can be gauged by the naivete of its supporters who keep on parroting corruption corruption without being able to name one cogent corruption case and who think that clowns like Arif Alvi and Naeem ul Haq can actually contest an election where actual people vote (not the face book elections).

    I repeat that at the moment PTI is not in winning position in even a single constituency in Pakistan. Even "Snow White's" home constituency of Qamar Masani in Mianwali is not a done deal. PTI's potential candidates are in a position to get 15000 votes only in 7 constituencies in Punjab and 4 in KPK so it is in no position to play even a spoiler. I would be surprised if the minions of PTI posting here have any idea which these constituencies are.

    This is the achille's heel of PTI. Its supporters/workers have zero political acumen or experience but are just a bunch of worshipers of "Snow White" who think that just by showing his face their beloved will sweep the elections as if all of Pakistan is as dumb as themselves to be fooled by shallow rhetoric.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 15:51 #
  44. insaftak

    @ adonis

    PTI supporters have zero political acumen and zero experience. You could enjoy your political acumen and experience of corruption, tax evasion, Land grabbing and Murders.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 15:56 #
  45. Adonis

    ",, tax evasion, Land grabbing and Murders ....."

    and yada , yada, yada ....

    You just proved my point !!!!!

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:02 #
  46. insaftak

    Tax evasion PML(N), PPP, PMLQ, ANP.

    Land Grabbers PML(N)PPP, ANP, MQM

    Murderer; PPP, MQM, ANP.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:04 #
  47. Adonis

    Read these names:

    Jazi Khan, Fayyaz ul Hassan chohan, Zaheer Khokhar, Maaja Crown Wala, Sardar Arif Rashhed, Ijaz Bukhari

    and then say:

    Tax evasion, land grabbers, murderers

    Repeat this "tasbeeh" 33 times every day.

    Inshallah "nafa'a" hoga !!!

    This shows that idol worshipers are as shallow and ignorant as their idol. They are not even aware of the "qualities" of their front-line leaders...

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:11 #
  48. insaftak

    @ adonis

    Why isn't Punjab government charging these guys and putting them behind bars. Wait I know, They are not interested in accountability of anyone. Just like their brothers Zardari and Gilani in Federal Government.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:14 #
  49. Adonis

    ..... and just like their younger brother Imran Khan who is interested in accountability of anyone as directed by GHQ but has no interest in accountability of his own party.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:46 #
  50. insaftak

    < img src= http://blog.cleanenergy.org/files/2009/04/head-in-sand.jpg />

    Keep your head buried in sand. PTI is not in power to hold anyone accountable. We will be in power soon and hold the corrupt, tax evaders accountable.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:50 #
  51. Dusky

    @ rasheed "Then what is the point of PTI's dharna and protests? PTI should shutup and let the democracy flourish. PTI should also stay shutup when PPP wins next time through PTI."

    That's PTI's democratic right to demonstrate against what they don't believe in or don't like in a government. Same as it was PML-N$ right to sit in national assembly as friendly opposition and do nothing for almost three years.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:55 #
  52. Adonis

    @ insaf-tuk

    Thanks for reinforcing my point about the stupidity of Imran Khan's worshipers.

    And don't forget reciting the "tasbeeh" I prescribed for you above.

    Inshallah God will give you shifa.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 16:56 #
  53. Dusky

    @ rasheed: "The bottom line is ... I would still vote for Imran Khan even if that makes Zardari win .. kiyon kay ishq andha hota hay :-)"

    Vote for Imran Khan/PTI or any local tom, d!ck or harry you believe in because that's your democratic right to vote for the person you think can be your best representative.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 17:12 #
  54. aftab

    I don't like PTI accepting people from other parties, especially those people that have been in government recently either at the provincial or national level, if accepted then this will not be the tangible change that Imran talks about.

    If NS is worried about not getting into power then now is the time too act and bring back your assets from foreign countries, so that Pakistanis could benefit economically, rather then the people in the UK.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 17:40 #
  55. justhuman

    @Adonis .. ..I don't think most of PTI supporters are idol worshipers , they support Imran Khan based on his ideology and potential to change the system , Just like i eagerly supported Nawaz Sharif during his 'Qarz uttaro Mulk Sanwaro' Movement days. He badly disappointed me after that . Imran gives me a fresh hope and third option .

    Anyways tell me why do you support N league ( Please don't give the reason like : they are Lions and Imran khan is a fly etc ) . I personally believe Sharifs may be less corrupt than Zardari (Of course Zardari is crown-less King in that area) but they seriously lack any vision in governance also . Apart from all their past failures and corruption charges , their current welfare schemes seem like fabricated to provide cheap slogans and mere band aids to existing chronic problems in Punjab. Danish School (Giving all money to few schools and leaving all other schools budget less) , Yellow cab scheme ( a failed blast from the past) Ashiyana scheme (11 Lacs houses for poors ? ) sasta Tandoor scheme (which essentially is making us a nation of beggars and took its part in Mega Budget deficit of hundreds of billions).

    Compare those with PTI tentative proposals for Punjab Budget (It is from last year though but you can get an idea of their vision from those tentative proposals)

    http://insaf.pk/News/tabid/60/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4079/PTI-Punjab-presents-provincial-budget-for-2010-11.aspx

    Azmaye huoN ku baaar baar azmana ,What is the logic in it. Lets give new people with fresh minds some chance and hope they will deliver what they promise. Shake the system.

    @insaftak, Loved this classic one from you : the fight is no longer between left & right but right or wrong.

    So It is never to late to Join the right side. Open your mind , research compare and read . Don't be faithful to any political leader but yourself and your country.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 17:43 #
  56. Scandinavian

    @insaftak

    Your picture:

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 18:07 #
  57. insaftak

    @ scandinavian

    Thank you brother. I was able to post a pic once on pkpolitics and thought I have finally figured it out but again tried doing that today and failed. I will eventually figure this system out :)).

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 18:17 #
  58. Scandinavian

    @insaftak

    you only missed the quotation marks around the link.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 18:32 #
  59. saladin89

    @rasheed

    "Then what is the point of PTI's dharna and protests? PTI should shutup and let the democracy flourish. PTI should also stay shutup when PPP wins next time through PTI".

    The point of the dharna's is to bring awareness amongst people, concerning issues relating to awam. Protests are too show that there are people in pakistan that care for well being of our country.

    Concerning let democracy flourish, are u talking about the 45% rigged votes and jageedar influence. There is no democracy here, let's be honest.

    If your theory is correct and ppp win so let it be, if I had a choice between N$ and Mr 10% I will choose neither.

    "If PPP wins next time, it is nothing to be worried about for PTI, since this is exactly what they are intending to do."

    Not true PTI is trying too oust the whole hukumat. This includes Mr10%. That is why PTI did a jalsa in Islamabad recently concerning issues relating to CJ. Whilst N$ was sitting in his palace with his air conditioning on, and taking a break from all his hard work that he has done, and gone to Muree.

    The main seats where PTI will win is in Punjab, some in Sindh and Karachi. At the end it should be enough to bring him to leadership of Pakistan.
    And if u are correct and the people don't care about there future then let them vote for these corrupt and incompetant leader's.
    Recent polls conducted by external sources suggest that Mr10% has the worst ratings ever. And u are talking about PPP winning. Yes if the fake vote machine is up and running than there is a possibility, however N$ is the badshah of rigging votes, so u don't have to worry too much.

    "If something like NS and Zardari nexus exists, it would be still much better than Imran Khan + ISI Pasha nexus"

    Really, N$ and Mr 10% are kissing each other backsides for the 3.5 years. U have your turn, then we will have ours was decided 3.5 years ago. Do u really think the present circumstances in Pakistan are good?, if so u need to see a doctor. We are on the brink of destruction, because of these 2 corrupt and incompetant leaders.

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 22:50 #
  60. LHR

    fully agree with the article.

    Ik knows he cant win a single seat but can only dent PMLN votes. i believe he is against PMLN for personal reasons when PMLN govt brought charges for smuggling against IK and his wife.

    Ik's sole ambition is to 'NS ko maza chakana' and is covertly working for zardari to satisfy his personal grudges against NS.

    this is very disappointing that he is leading the youth astray in achievement of his personal gains/grudges

    Posted 2 years ago on 08 Aug 2011 22:55 #

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