PKPolitics Discuss » Current Issues

Who is going to win KP & Tribal areas in G.E 2013.

(34 posts)

  1. wikithegreat

    Guys there has been an interesting assesment done by someone and is viral on social medial for the battle of KP and tribal areas in the General election 2013. The assessment predicts the real competitors on each NA Seats and its possible winner.

    MMA here represents either of the religous parties or the alliance..

    NA 1 (Peshawar) PTI vs ANP winner PTI
    NA 2 (Peshawar) PTI vs PPP vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 3 (Peshawar) PTI vs ANP winner PTI
    NA 4 (Peshawar) PTI vs PPP winner PTI
    NA 5 (Nowshehra) PTI vs MMA vs PPP winner PTI
    NA 6 (Nowshehra) PTI vs QWP vs MMA. winner PTI
    NA 7 (Charsada ) PTI vs ANP winner PTI
    NA 8 (Charsada) PTI vs QWP winner QWP
    NA 9 (Mardan) PTI vs Khwaja Hothee vs ANP winner PTI
    NA 10 (Mardan) PTI vs MMA vs ANP winner ANP
    NA 11 (Mardan) PTI vs PPP vs ANP winner ANP
    NA 12 (Swabi) PTI vs Eng. Usman Khan winner Indp.
    NA 13 (Swabi) PTI vs ANP vs QWP winner PTI
    NA 14 (Kohat) PTI vs PMLN vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 15 (Karak) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 16 (Hangu) PTI vs Indp vs ANP winner Indp.
    NA 17 (Abottabad) PTI vs PML N winner PMLN
    NA 18 (Abottabad) PTI vs PML N winner PTI
    NA 19 (Haripur) PTI vs PML N winner PMLN
    NA 20 (Mansehra) PTV vs PML N winner PTI
    NA 21 (Mansehra) PTI vs PML N winner PMLN
    NA 22 (Battagram) PTI vs MMA vs ANP winner MMA
    NA 23 (Kohistan) PTI vs MMA vs ANP winner MMA
    NA 24 (DI Khan) PTI vs PPP vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 25 (Tank) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 26 (Banuu) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 27 (Lakki Marwat) PTI vs PMLN winner PMLN
    NA 28 (Buner) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 29 (Swat) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 30 (Swat) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
    NA 31 (Shangla) PTI vs PMLN winner PMLN
    NA 32 (Chitral) PTI vs PPP winner PTI
    NA 33 (upper dir) PTI vs MMA winner MMA
    NA 34 (Lower dir) PTI vs MMA winner MMA
    NA 35 (Malakand) PTI vs MMA winner PTI

    Tribal Areas

    Total seat 12..
    PTI wins 9 seats
    MMA wins 3 seats..

    Total results : PTI = 30 seats.
    MMA = 7 seats
    PMLN= 5 seats
    IND= 2 seats
    QWP= 1 seats
    ANP= 2 seats

    From Punjab PTI is expecting to win 87 seats.
    From Baluchistan 3 seats
    From Sindh 5 seats
    Total = 87+30+3+5 = 125.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 6:59 #

  2. Anwer Kamal

    No seat for PTI in KP .
    less than five in Punjab , Only one seat in Punjab , Mianwali can be called a confirm seat of PTI .

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 7:41 #

  3. xainahmed

    The Election in KPK will depend on which party the JI forms alliance with. If JI forms alliance with PTI on seat to seat basis, then there would be an absolute sweep of PTI+JI alliance.
    If JI goes with PML-N, it won't achieve much success as PML-N has support only in Abbottabad-Haripur-Mansehra.
    If JI goes with JUI-F in MMA alliance (which is improbable), it could play as a vote spoiler in some constituencies and win in others.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 7:44 #

  4. wikithegreat

    @xainahmed,

    I agree with you, in case JI does alliance with PTI, it would be a clean sweep in KP and FATA..

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 7:56 #

  5. wikithegreat

    I guess QWP here stands for Qaumi watan party lead by Aftab Sherpao..

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 7:58 #

  6. Anwer Kamal

    There is no party with the name of PTI is on ground any where in Pakistan election politics , This is an internet party , contesting elections on internet .

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:03 #

  7. mango mam

    It a great loss for PTI; From 272 to 125; It means PTI will not sweep the elections;

    No seats for PPP, LOL; great going

    DI Khan ; winner is PTI; great; btw, who is the candidate? sorry , imran khan got it?

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:05 #

  8. Adonis

    Totally biased predictions. Typical status quo mentality of downplaying the success of tsunami.

    Given the immense popularity of PTI in KPK,tribal areas and Punjab, it will win all 35 seats from KPK, all 12 seats from tribal areas (though party affiliation is not allowed in tribal area elections), both the seats from Islamabad as well as all 148 seats from Punjab. From Sindh and Baluchistan, where it is relatively less popular, PTI will win 25 and 10 seats each.

    Therefore, in the coming National Assembly, PTI will have 35+12+2+148+25+10 = 232 out of 272 directly contested seats.

    This is a very conservative estimate, if PTI runs a good campaign, it can even sweep all 272 seats.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:07 #

  9. mango mam

    @Adonis

    its still a loss; from 272 to 232; You have failed; We need somebody else;

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:09 #

  10. xainahmed

    The politics in KPK is different from other provinces. There has always been alternate results from the previous Elections every time. From elections since 1988, we can figure out that general trend is:

    NA-1 to NA-13: ANP & PPP battle (hardly any PML-N or JUI-F support here)
    NA-14 to NA-16: Mix of all Parties
    NA-17 to NA-21: Strong PML-N support with Independant candidates mostly fighting against PML-N. (No ANP or PPP)
    NA-22 & NA-23: Religious votebank dominates
    NA-24 to NA-27: Strong JUI-F presence (PML-N & PPP exist in small number)
    NA-28 to NA-31: Mix of all parties
    NA-32 to NA-35: Strong JI and PPP presence.

    But In 2002, MMA alliance got 29/35 NA seats, with big margins on every seat, and surprised everyone. It was only because of their one point agenda of promise to bring Sharia rule and anti-US stance.

    Today, anti-US sentiments are even more than before. Plus the war on terror and the silence of ruling parties over killings of innocent in drone attacks would prove to be a backlash for all ruling parties in KPK. That's the same reason, PTI is the most popular in KPK because of its anti-drone policy and the promise to disengage Pakistan Army from war on terror.

    We could absolutely see a recap of 2002, only this time it would be PTI. People of KPK have always shown the most intent for change in every elections. And this time will be no different.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:12 #

  11. Anwer Kamal

    Only way for Pti to get few seats , Come under Umbrella of PML N or PPP
    Whom you will like ?

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:20 #

  12. فارغ جذباتی

    باقی خیبر پختونخواہ کا تو کچھ نہیں کہہ سکتا البتہ قبائلی علاقوں میں گولہ بارود جیتے گا

    ف ج

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:22 #

  13. wikithegreat

    @xainahmad you are absolutely right. The approval ratings of pti are way ahead in KP province than other political parties.

    Secondly KP is different from other provinces because people votes on ideology, prevailing international environment and Change.

    Since 1990 , KP is ruled by PPP, ANP, PMLN, and MMA. So "Change" is inherited in the blood of the people from the province.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:36 #

  14. Anwer Kamal

    Veena Malik could be more better if your choice is only 'change' .

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:46 #

  15. mango mam

    @Anwer Kamal

    Please don't spoil the show;

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:48 #

  16. Anwer Kamal

    Ok , Than put here the name of possible candidates here for KP only .

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 8:59 #

  17. mango mam

    For PTI; NA1-NA35, IK

    Now its your turn for atleast one other party

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:01 #

  18. LHR

    KPK is the garh of PTI and it will not just win 35 seats but about 45 from there.........as IK is very popular and has a big following in China as well ....when they get to know that IK's party has finally dcided to take part in elections the nearby towns and cities of China would join Pakistan ...... giving PTI 10 additional seats say included in KPK.

    Also IK is equally popular in neighbouring India where he has been paying taxes for many many years and have a huge fan base.......like China few cities of India will form part of Pakistan and say giving 15 more seats from Punjab

    Therefore, in the coming National Assembly, PTI will have 297 out of 272 directly contested seats.

    This is a very conservative estimate, if Aghanistan and Iranian cities also join Pakistan than IK can easily score well above 300

    @Mango mam.....hun das?

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:06 #

  19. mango mam

    @LHR

    I have to thank you for what you did for me; You are the one I was looking for. Adonis was too conservative;

    However, I have one objection; You did not mention the additional seats from sindh and balochistan; why?

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:11 #

  20. wasimibr

    This over exaggerated analysis done by so called "SOMEONE" on social media will be a matter of great concern for IK as 125 seats which is less than just a simple majority will negate the promises of bringing the so called "sunami". This result will bring a lot of badnami for IK instead of Sonami.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:12 #

  21. LHR

    @Mango mam

    Sindh will be decided after consultations with Coalition Partner 1...Altaf Bhayya

    Balochistan will be decided after consultations with Coalition Partner 2...Zaradri Sayen

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:13 #

  22. mango mam

    @LHR

    Although, I hate waiting, but have no other choice but to wait for final consultations.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:17 #

  23. LHR

    @Mongo mam

    These are called political complications and only party leader who has been running his party single handedly for 16 Years can understand and resolve such political complications

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:27 #

  24. MANSIF

    @wikithegreat

    i think this assessment is done by you in dream.
    the reality is quite different.
    pti is not in a winning position any where in pakistan
    and general opinion is pti can not win more than 5 seats from all over the pakistan.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:30 #

  25. xainahmed

    @wikithegreat: The situation would get more clear once the caretaker setup comes in. ANP & PPP couldn't manage to win a single NA seat in KPK in 2002. They are heading towards the same direction. And the beneficiary would be PTI. As for PML-N, they would have to do well to hold on to their Hazara seats. Similarly, JUI-F would have to do well to hold onto its seats in D.I.Khan and Bannu. JI enjoys immense support in Dir and regardless of alliance would win there. PML-Q might play as a vote spoiler in some constituencies. As for Sherpao, he might be able to retain his own seat. Changing party name won't do any good.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:43 #

  26. LHR

    I beleive Anwar Kamal Sahib's question above needs answering too......

    - Put here the name of possible candidates of PTI here for KP only?

    btw ...... i know the answer!

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:47 #

  27. xainahmed

    No one knew the names of MMA candidates in 2002 and still they got 29/35 seats. KPK politics is different from rest of Pakistan as explained in my previous posts. Electables don't matter in KPK. One point agenda of disengaging from war on terror and anti-drone policy would win seats from here.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:56 #

  28. sam45

    Latest survey, by an authentic international organization.

    2013 election KPK NA predictions.

    NA1. ANP or JUI-F alliance
    NA2. PTI or PML-N
    NA3. PPPP or PML-N
    NA4. PML-N
    NA5. JUI-F alliance or PML-N
    NA6. ANP or PPP-S
    NA7. ANP
    NA8. PPP-S or JUI-F alliance
    NA9. Depend on which party Hoti joins.
    NA10. JUI-F alliance
    NA11. JUI-S alliance
    NA12. PML-N
    NA13. PML-N or ANP
    NA14. PTI or PML-N
    NA15. PML-N or religious alliance
    NA16. JUI-F alliance or independent
    NA17. PML-N
    NA18. PML-N
    NA19. PML-N or PTI
    NA20. PML-N or PML-Q
    NA21. PML-N or JUI-F alliance
    NA22. JUI-F alliance
    NA23. Independent or religious alliance
    NA24. PPPP or JUI-F
    NA25. JUI-F alliance
    NA26. JUI-F alliance or PML-N
    NA27. PML-HK
    NA28. PPP-S or ANP
    NA29. Independent or ANP
    NA30. PTI or PPPP
    NA31. PML-N
    NA32. PML-Q or PML-N
    NA33. JI or PMLN
    NA34. JUI-F alliance or PPPP
    NA35. PML-N or PPPP

    Approximate seats party wise

    PML-N 14-16, JUI-F 5-6, ANP 3-4, PPPP 2-3, PTI 0-1,

    PPP-S 1-2, Independent 1-2 Others 4-5

    This is the original survey, which wiki has copied and made changes according to his liking!

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 9:57 #

  29. J.A.Khan

    Anwer Kamal

    Your so right when you say that PTI is an internet party winning all seats on internet. Simply grown up kids.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 10:45 #

  30. drgulkhan

    PTI will win most of seats from KPK

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 11:50 #

  31. wasimibr

    PTI will win most of seats from KPK on one condition that elections are held on facebook.

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 12:51 #

  32. sadaat

    @ Wasim

    Haha, Spot on mate! PTI may form govt in Centrol & all 4 provinces, if election held in Facebook

    Posted 6 months ago on 16 Nov 2012 12:57 #

  33. mohtashim

    Some of the people here are acting if these predictions represent the outcome of the elections! Grow up please. Election outcomes depend on several factors in KPK:

    1) Party alliances
    2) Seat adjustments
    3) Candidates selected
    4) local Alliances
    5) Outright sentiment as in 2002 when people voted MMA

    Making predictions and estimates will just dissapoint you in the future so don't waste your time here. You want PTI, PML (N) or any party you want to see winning please go out on the street with them to campaign/canvas etc. Join the electoral process so you understand how it is done and hopefully after 10-12 generations you will learn how to get your man elected.

    Posted 3 months ago on 14 Feb 2013 14:07 #

  34. Sweettruth

    @wikithegreat

    The way the PTI's populairy is growing and political/electoral influence is spreading, I think PTI will win seats even from neighbouring countries.

    Where do you do your surveys? I guess on Internet.

    Posted 3 months ago on 15 Feb 2013 23:40 #

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