Interesting Analysis
IT was a brilliantly calculated tactical move timed to precision and delivered with devastating accuracy.
Just when the cocky tribunes of the once truly ‘people’s’ party, but lately hijacked by Zardari, were literally dancing in the air, convinced that they had the numbers in the parliament to ram the ignoble NRO down the throats of a largely moribund assembly of befuddled ‘people’s representatives,’ the MQM pulled the rug from under their feet with a finesse its leaders and cadres haven’t, recently, been known for.
MQM’s unexpected decision to not endorse Musharraf’s palpably self-serving and clearly anti-constitutional ‘black’ law sent the PPP stalwarts into tail- spin. The spin doctors of Zardari had been counting their chickens long before the eggs were hatched. They were pretty confident that with MQM and ANP on board, and an ever-obliging Maulana Fazlur-Rehman always within hailing distance of the highest bidder, they could romp through the barrier in the National Assembly with comfortable ease.
In the abstract sense of the arcane numbers game the jubilation of Zardari’s factotums wasn’t all that misplaced.
With its own 124 members in the assembly; a 25-strong bloc of MQM supposedly in tow right behind; and an increasingly inane ANP throwing its 13 (little wonder this party has been behaving so weirdly!) hats in the ring, and not discounting JUI-Fazal Group’s six votes, the ruling elite could see itself touching the finish line with little effort. In the present house of 337 ( 5 seats being vacant in the house of 342) the victory target was 169; and the ruling party could always count on Zardari’s men to pick up a couple of independent members.
All that looked perfectly hunky-dory to the likes of Babar Awan and Fauzia Wahab to gloat that once the assembly put its seal of approval on the black bill, no court in the realm could undo it or breach the supposedly immune bunkers of the beneficiaries of Musharraf’s macabre largesse. But while the PPP heavy-weights were busy building their castles-in-the-air, and the people of Pakistan were grappling with Hillary Clinton’s very robust charm offensive, the MQM leadership, for a change, was doing some serious homework, as per Dr Farooq Sattar’s subsequent public affirmation of it.
Those doing the homework clearly understood the importance of their 25 votes in any possible reckoning on the floor of the assembly. Whatever permutation or combination could be worked out, given the sharp cleavage between the PPP and PML-N on the prickly issue of NRO, MQM, wittingly or unwittingly, had acquired the weight to swing the issue one way or the other.
Altaf Hussain’s suggestion, from his perch in London, to President Zardari to make a ‘sacrifice’ in the interest of democracy must have been shattering for him and his acolytes. Remember it was Altaf Hussain who had taken the lead, after last year’s national elections, in proposing Zardari’s name for president. However, the same proposer was now asking his nominee to throw in the towel and give primacy to the country over his own interest.
Altaf Hussain’s blunt call set the tone for his party to make a U-turn in its unabashed partisanship on Zardari’s behalf. In the process, they may have sealed his fate for all intents and purposes.
The obvious question, why did MQM choose to rock the boat for Zardari, has more than one answer.
For one, MQM’s vote of no confidence in Zardari is solely focused on him and his persona. He is the one in the eye of the storm. The people of Pakistan hold him responsible for all their plight, penury and sufferings. In the eyes of a common Pakistani, it’s Zardari who personifies rampant corruption and cronyism eating into the vitals of the country and
grinding them down into abject penury.
By singling out Zardari, the MQM has thrown its weight behind the public uproar in the country that faults him for all that currently afflicts Pakistan. Call it MQM’s first real effort to work its way back into the popular mainstream from which it has been noticeably absent, since that black day, of May 12, 2007, when its armed gangs held Karachi hostage and shut its doors on Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.
The MQM volte face has nothing to do with the PPP and doesn’t impinge on the equation both parties have worked hard to cultivate and promote over the years. For that reason, it has let it be known that it has no intention of quitting the government. Well, that may reflect its cadres’ lust for power; they would like to milk the cow in their hands to its last drop. But, in a cynical way, MQM’s decision to hang on to power may have, unwittingly, done a service to the present democratic order in the country still struggling to find its feet.
There’s nary a doubt that if the MQM had decided to pull out of the coalition, it could have derailed the wobbly Gilani government, and opened the door for the dissolution of this assembly, and mid-term elections, which neither PPP nor MQM itself has stomach for at this stage.
However, the most powerful concern behind the sea-change in MQM’s hitherto unabashed flirtation with Zardari and his shenanigans could well be its desire to worm its way into Punjab, the majority province of Pakistan from which it has been so conspicuous by its absence. A clue to it could be found in the recent contacts between MQM and PML-N, the news of which was purposely leaked to the media to prepare the MQM followers, viscerally, for the change in the offing.
This scribe has long argued with the MQM ‘biggies’ in regard to the need for building bridges of understanding with the majority province: if you have to live within the federation, a modus vivendi with the political forces dominating its biggest component must be found. It’s something ineluctable. We should learn from our Himalayan blunder of not having cultivated the Bengalis when they were the majority in Pakistan.
Jumping off Zardari’s sinking ship may be derided by his votaries as unprincipled and self-serving. That may well be so. However, in the larger context of enlarging its own base and ridding the country of the blight of corruption and cronyism, it’s a decision that deserves to be complimented, especially in full knowledge of the fact that MQM cadres have benefited in spades from NRO, and should now be ready to face the music.
More than anything else, it’s an expedient move by the MQM to ingratiate itself with PML-N whose support would be crucial to gain a foothold in Punjab’s political culture. In fact, it is a quantum leap in the direction of its old nemesis. It may have been akin to biting the bullet, but it did so with some panache not expected of it, given its shady past. But the ball is now in the court of Nawaz Sharif. He has the challenge on his hands to not only give MQM the credit for its well-timed coup de grace against Zardari, but also meet it more than half-way as a senior partner, and not a big brother.
It can’t be dismissed as a flight of fancy that a genuine entente between MQM and PML-N in Punjab could also be beneficial to PML-N in Sindh, where it has virtually no presence as of now.
Taking the argument a little further, it’s high time, in view of the country’s life-and-death struggle against the nihilistic forces of terrorism and religious obscurantism, for progressive forces from across all ideological and party-divides to come together at some common platform to fight this epic battle as one.
The catalyst of détente between MQM and PML-N could encourage aficionados of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s and Benazir’s pristine PPP — as against the hijackers of the party under Zardari’s buccaneer banner — to jump ship, too, and coalesce around a moderate leader provided he shows some real backbone and doesn’t buckle under pressure. That would be a formidable defence against any attempts to shipwreck democracy.
