Elections 2013 Predictions – v5

Here is the 5th and final version of Elections 2013 Predictions. Please download the attached PDF file to see full seat-by-seat details.

We predict the following numbers of seats in the national assembly for the following parties:

PMLN 109
PPP 42
PTI 30
MQM 18
JUI 10
JI 9
Independents 20
Misc. 15

PKP-Election2013-Predictions-v5 (PDF 283K)

46 thoughts on “Elections 2013 Predictions – v5

  1. Youth and increased voter turn out (~58-60%) has not been considered in these numbers. I am expecting over 60+ seats for PTI.

    PML N & PPP will be bleeding most of these seats from their previous winning constituencies from KPK & Punjab.

    Just wait and see … I am in Toronto and I reached out to several freinds and family and got several new votes for PTI in Karachi .. Took me a couple of days …

    Its Noon vs. Junoon …. you can rig the polls, buy people with laptops, but cant beat an Ideology & Vision. Good Luck to all you Nooonies : )

    • A very realistic analysis based on a detailed analysis of every seat.
      PTI is non existent in Sindh, Baluchistan and the non Muslim community. It has been propped up by PPP to erode a clean sweep by PML N in Punjab and KPK. But the masses are much smarter and know that every single vote to PTI will actually benefit PPP as PTI is just a spoiler. It is only a few youth in the urban areas who got swayed by PTI.

    • What vision of PTI?
      Could you plz explain vision of PTI.

      My Brother got Scholar ship & Laptop on merit which helps his admission in UET & moreover his higher studies without any hurdle. This is an example of my home & consider about thousands of students who got benefited with this.
      After higher education & that too from reputable universities consider how many get advantage of good job to support their families for a happy life & then a happy Pakistan. This is just one example – just one example.

      Our eyes open & we know Tabdeeli factor

      PML-N Zindabad
      Sher will win – Insha Allah

    • My pakistan,

      Brother, im so glad to hear youve been helped my pml n in such a way, but these people dont understand. The thing is you know and Allah knows, and Allah will bring the man who will be best for us, Insha Allah.

      Jiay pml n, insha Allah pml n will win

    • Dear Hassan!

      have you ever heard abt, KAZGHI Qily (Soil Forts),, It is easy to criticize and very easy to say , what we will do, etc…. but ground realities are different..

      Janoooooonies, i will your dreams drown in KPK, when you will fail to deliver what you were claiming;
      corruption in 90 days,
      Kala Bagh Dam
      Governance and most of the top thing
      Equal Education,,, (Madarsa, Sarkari School, English medium school and elite class school and franchised schooling system,,, A/O Level System)
      Attack on Droan plains,,,

      🙂 Good Luck with 130+ seats to NOOOON, and 32 to B-Team of PPPP:)

  2. Pk politics has totally lost it’s credibility by coming up with such biased surveys. At any given 90% of their reports are anti PTI. This website should be renamed as pmlnPolitics.com

  3. In Sha Allah PML-N will win.

    I think Few changes from your result is possible;

    NA-1 ANP likely to win (-1 PTI,+1 ANP)
    NA-2 PPP likely to win (-1 PTI, +1 PPP)
    NA-3 PML-N looks strong after Nawaz Sharif Jalsa (-1 PTI, +1 N)
    NA-17 Mehtab Abbasi very strong (-1 PTI, +1 N)
    NA-48 Easy win for Anjum Aqueel due to support from Peer of Golra (-1 PTI, +1 N)
    NA-49 Mustafa Khokhar has an edge due to Q/PPPP alliance (-1 N, +1 PPP)
    NA-53 Ghulam Sarwar looks abit strong due to PTI support (-1 N, +1 PTI)
    NA-56 being local resident, PML-N is very strong especially after poor show by PTI/SR jalsa on 9 May night (-1 PTI, +1 N)
    NA-117 Lahore is stronghold of N (-1 PTI, +1 N)
    NA-122 after Nawaz Sharif Jalsa, whole scenario is change (-1 PTI, +1 N)
    NA-126 Liaqat Baluch likely to win, as he won in 2002 as well & I heard PML-N will also support him (-1 PTI, +1 JI)
    NA-127 Again Lahore is N stronghold, easy win for N (-1 PTI, +1 N)
    NA-128 easy win for N in Lahore, (-1 PTI, + 1 N)
    NA-130 due to poor performance by PPP, Ghurki seems in trouble, but let’s not change the resut
    NA-153 Dewan Ashiq is very strong & also has strong back of N voters, (-1 PPPP, +1 N)

    after making some changes to your survey, my prediction is

    PML-N: 116 seats
    PTI: 20 seats

  4. Finally PTI and PPP announced their alliance in Public.
    PPP candidate Fardoos Ashiq Awan which was contesting from two National assembly seats NA-110 & NA-111 decided not to contest from NA-110 and announced his support for PTI.

    Shame on PTI & PPP.

    PML-N will win Inshallah.

  5. All NOon Geedars you are soon going to hide in you graves.You can’t beat JUNOON.
    And don’t spread false predictions as Noon league not going to get more than 50-70 seats while PTI over 80 easily.

  6. Pakistani awam to jaise pagal ho gai hai, PML-N support to thek hai, lakin PPP ko to b abi b log support kr rahe hain,

    kyoun yaaar!!!!?????????

    PTI is the best for ALL Pakistan, you will come to know after they come in National Assembly !!

  7. PTI had 1 seat previously so having 30+ seats even by your BIASED estimate is a big success 3000% increase in popularity.

    In shaa Allah they will do much better than that and win a lot more seats if people show courage and stop blind following their corrupt leaders irrationally.

    Imran Khan/PTI has every thing to win and old parties have everything to lose.

  8. It’s good your brother got laptop and scholarship. Imran Khan/PTI has a role in that too.

    Old parties will be compelled to do something for the people when they feel threatend by PTI’s popularity. Competition improves performace.

    We should not allow our leaders to be complacent and support them unconditionally.

    We are not their slaves and they dont own us. So have a free thinking mind.

    If you reject them, then they might mend their ways in the future.

  9. Congrats and thanks to Pk Politics team for running a great website and posting the predictions. You guys were very close.

    Congrats to all PMLN supporter on a great victory.

    Congrats to PTI supporters as well on winning one province, now they get a chance to show their governing skills.

  10. Congratulations to each and every pml n supporter, Allah has answered our prayers.
    And yes, to pti supporters, congratulation, youve got one province, Houve got a chance to prove yourselves.
    And congratulations to site pkpolitics, your predictions were precise, even though a few were ignorant, but your predicitions were awe-some!

  11. also the test of Nawaz shareef starts now,he must decide now to enforce sharia e islami without any delay no matter how angry it makes army and America.last time n league govt ended because they did not fulfill heir promise to allah.nawaz shareef must enforce sharia and end system of interest or sood as soon as possible,if he does that Allah will bless him in both worlds,this may be his last chance so he must not miss it

  12. pti,s columnist haroon rasheed who is very close to army and isi wrote few weeks back that if n league govt came than we,army and judiciary will not let n league govt complete even two years.so n league must beware of this threat that pti etc people are not fair players they will keep trying to sabotage n league govt with help of their friends in ppp/mqm and army

  13. I like to congratulate you and your team for putting such a effort to make close and somewhere exact predictions. Every version was made with great interest and accuracy.

    I thinks Mr. Ghulam Mustafa has arranged these predictions. Mr. Sohail waraich mentioned this website in his program and today Mr. Atta-ul-haq qasmi mentioned it as well.

  14. @

    Hun samajh aae ay?

    Insafi inqelabio ab dimagh thikany aaya?

    Ahmaqon ke jannat se nikal aao. Khuwabon ke dyna me he rehty raho gymkiya?

  15. @

    If you had come up with this sort of theory then you would have been considered intelligent.

    Now this is what you can do to console JUNOON which has left PTI fans and only FUNOON remain. Merasi Abrar bhe haar gaya aur mersai Salman Ahmed will now rest in peace for a while before performing before public and earning his livelihood.

    If IK would have won,,then he would have been performing in PM house to keep IK’s arrogant mode in check with dancing girls of PTI.lol

  16. On ethical ground pti won this election .The party
    With no seats no representative able to bag seats
    and second largest party now .In Punjab elections
    Were engineered this is reason pmln could not
    Win in other provinces .PMLN only have vote bank
    In north Punjab . south Punjab vote only local personalities
    It doesn’t matter if they join pmln ,ppp or pti
    While Ik,s swept in kpk and brought down many
    Powerful personalities

  17. If IK not stick with his principles and play power politics
    I am sure he would easily won this election.while
    NS as experienced politician gathered all corrupt
    Politicians regardless of their past and won .
    Anyway good news for KPK .expatriate Pakistanis
    are looking forward to do heavy investment in KPK.

  18. @

    Can uplease tell what happened to much propogated tsunami?

    Where is the bayan ehalfi of IK that next govt will be or PTI? All tall claims went to dust bin. Andfinally where is Insaftiger? Please ask your great sportsman leader to congratulate PMLN atleast to show some face.

  19. @Deevav

    I’m writing from PTI side (of course it’s un-official :D).

    Muhammad (PBUH) took 23 years to make his nation understand what’s right. Jesus couldn’t do that in his own time and was put on cross (whether or not he died). So, IK couldn’t do it and you criticise. Sorry but he wasn’t better than both the above mentioned. But, let’s just say that he tries to follow the both in changing nations.

    Do i expect that my reply above will make you understand? Would you have a gracious heart? Nay, not so. It’s just that i’m ready to unleash as much invective as you like ( of course if i have time 😀 like now ) Otherwise I care … about you guys 😀

    have a nice day (or …. it, who cares)

  20. @

    Before even naming these people in comparing with the playboy type allegedly father of illegitimate child, you should have shaken. Else your emaan needs overhauling.

    IK’s charactor is quite visible from his past and present both. Let me give a few examples from present as past is known by everybody in Pakistan.

    1. He started his poltical career with mush and served as his biggest tool to ensure victory in his fraud referrendum.

    2. Then had an onslaught at MQM and went right left and center to criticise MQM and its leader and called them as thugs and terrorists. Heclaimed that he would goto London with suitcases full of evidence against Altaf and he will be arrested becasue IK claimed he had enough contacts in UK to ensure this.

    3. Then he failed miserably to even upset a little the don of MQM in london.

    4. After failing miserably he said that MQM and PTI’s nazerya was the same. (No wonder when bhatta khor were arrested 7 of them belonged to PTI as per newspapers).

    5. Then he said that he would not include in his party those professional politicians whose hobby was corruption. Then he selected evry Tom Dick and Harry in his party shamelessly. Azam Sawati, SMQ, Qusoori, Jehangir Tareen wre pofessional turn coats to quote a few.

    6. Then he made the nation to believe that he was working for a change Pakistan or new Pakistan.He had no agneda, no team, and no ability to bring that change in Pakistan.

    7. Then he started his election campaigm and he was behaving like a normal professional olitician. he crossed the limits of decency many a times while criticising his political opponennts and exposed himself to the nation. There was no difference in his campaign and that of many other politicians.

    8. He got a punch at the head when NS replied to his indecent words by saying that ” Icannot reply you in the same coin because i am not trained like that by my parents”.

    9. He was never logical in his campaign and gave false hope and tall claims of sweeping the elections. NS never ever claimed a clean sweep.

    10. People did not like IK when he used to proudly say that balla sy phenty lagon ga sher ke. These type of his statements have disabled him t come to public now because Sher ny balla ke phenty laga k ussy torr dy hy.

    11. He used to talk very badly about sh Rashed and claimed that he would not even appont hin his peon. Then Pakistani nation saw the change when IK himself sought Sheikh’s help and togather they fought election against Sher.

    12. He did not make Zardari his target in the election campaign while PMLN govt had been the best performing governament in all provinces and in federal govt. Yet his criticism of NS and SS made him suffer at the hands of PMLN. The drubbing he got in the election is because of his arrogance, lack of manners and decency and due to the fact that he has no principles.

    13. He followed the line of gen pasha and malik riaz and zardari ad therfore exposed hiself in front of Pujab people who collectively rejected him finding him biased and against Punjab’s interest.

    Hope this satisfies you? and please never again compare the great prophets of Allah with any ordinary man o matter how much you love him. They were far above and any comparison would be an insult to them.

    • ha ha. My bad luck 🙁

      i can never be a stupidity shikan (shikan = cracker/ anti/ barker) as i’m so useless and you so strong

      a. dont’ be Allah. let God do what He does. don’t tell who is a good muslim or a bad muslim. simply it means, if it is not your job from N’ media cell then try to not to be Allah. But, if you are from PMLN media cell then i know that you think you are the one!

      b. Regarding your points about MQM and IK: as the PMLN media cell is situated in lahore therefore i presume you are from lahore. This simply means you don’t know the politics of karachi. Let me tell you, PMLN was killed and butchered in karachi by both MQM and PPP terrorists. The first anti MQM operation was carried out by Nawaz Sharif. In the current elections PMLN voters were threatened by MQM (MQM thought they were PTI voters). This is why many of PMLN leaders actually supported PTI in Karachi 😀 the interest was same (dushman ka dushman is a friend :on’t understand – get another laptop from showbaz.

      c. but why should i waste my time on people like you, really. (you wno’t understand reasons. or, would you)?

      anyway, do what you do the best i.e. create hatred.


  21. @

    Even a consolation is not there for you as you think. PPP is the second largest party in Pakistan with 31 seats whereas PTI with 27 seats is the third largest.

    Please correct your record and come up with some other thing to raise the moral of yourself and the burger group of mummy daddies.

    • PTI is the second largest party in terms of vote share


      besides PTI should win two more NA seats atleast in by-elections (from Peshawar and Mianwali which IK won but had to give up for obvious reasons)

  22. This site is nothing but a pro-PML-N site. whatever you write in support of IK (even if you back it with facts) is quickly removed by biased mods. Hope the keemay wale naan folk (pun intended) are not disappointed by NS this time. Only time will tell if he has really changed, All those praising him here should remember that NS had brought us to economic bankrupty in 1999 and although I am personally not in favour of coups, it is sometimes a necessary evil in a country like ours where politicinas by and large lack integrity and financial credibility

  23. besides PTI should win two more NA seats atleast in by-elections (from Peshawar and Mianwali which IK won but had to give up for obvious reasons)


    ممی ڈیڈی انقلابی بچوں کو کون سمجھائے کہ ضمنی انتخابات میں اپنی ہی چھوڑی ہوئی سیٹیں جیتنے سے پارٹی کی سیٹوں میں اضافہ نہیں ہوتا ہے

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